Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 16, 2010 2010-07-16




According to wave count this currency pair is now developing subwave C (colored red) within wave C (magenta). The subwave will be confirmed in 0.8870 broken. This wave is cancelled (and so is the whole movement 0.8314-0.8870) in case 0.8726 is broken to the downside.
The price targets of the corrective movement are Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8314-0.8870 and expansions off 0.8870-0.8726-0.8848.
Here they are:
- 0.8704 = objective point (OP)
- 0.8638 = .382 retracement
- 0.8615 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.8592 = .50 ret
- and so on, see the img
In case the price resumes its movement to the upsede the targets remain basically the same plus some new Fibonacci expansions off 0.8682-0.8870-0.8726:
- 0.8893 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.8914 = OP
- 0.9023-30 = confluence area of OP and XOP
- 0.9080 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly oversold. However, considering the conditions of a flat market it would be reasonable to wait for a true reversal and not to fade the downside movement right now. Levels to watch for a reversal are - 0.8704 and 0.8658.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 19, 2010 2010-07-19




This currency pair is now developing a corrective wave to the intermediate uptrend 0.8314-0.8870. The targets of the corrective wave are represented by Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8314-0.8870 and expansions off 0.8870-0.8726-0.8848, 0,8848-0,8745-0,8807.
The nearest price targets below the current level look the following way:
- 0.8658-40 = confluence area of .382 retracement and xpanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.8615 = XOP
- 0.8592 = .50 retracement
- 0.8537 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.8526 = .618 retracement
- and so on, see the screenshot
In case the price continues its movement to the upside the nearest targets will be represented by Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8807-0.8633, 0.8848-0,8633, 0,8870-0,8633.
Here are the nearest resistances:
- 0.8715-20-24 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 0.8740-41 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 0.8751 = .50 retracement



Overbought/Oversold
According to the Detrended Oscillator the market is clearly overbought, exceeding 100% overbought level. Since the intermediate trend is down, it's possible to try to wait for a topping signal and enter short against a Fibonacci resistance not far - e.g. 0.8720-40.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 19, 2010 2010-07-19




According to wave count this currency pair is now developing a corrective wave to the longterm uptrend 131.17-135.80. The targets of the correction are Fibonacci retracement points of this wave - 131.17-135.80. There are more targets, which are Fibonacci expansions off 135.80-134.22-135.58, 135.58-134.02-134.84.
Nearest price targets below the current level:
- 132.32-26 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .764 retracement, reached by the price already
- 131.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 130.76 = SXOP
In case the price resumes its movement to the upside the resistances will be Fibonacci retracement points of 3 waves: 134.84-131.94, 135.58-131.94, 135.80-131.94.
Nearest price targets above the current level:
- 133.05 = .382 ret
- 133.33-39-41 = confluence area of .382, .50, and .382 retracements
- 133.73-76-87 = confluence area of .618, and .50's retracements
- etc., see the image.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is in the red, showing that it is not the time to follow the intermediate downtrend. In case you trade intraday, the resistances to watch are nearest Fib-nodes at 133.05 and 133.33-39.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Wave analysis of GBP/USD. Weekly review 2010-07-19





Not quite logical GBP/USD price breakout above the 52nd figure did not change the overall picture of GBP growth, which still shows the signs of correction. At the same time, the wave c looks prolonged because of the formed lengthening of the 3rd in c. If it is true, next target of the present growth of the quotations can be the level of 1.5555 corresponding 50.0% correction of the whole decreasing trend shaped between November 16 and May 20. The existing MACD divergence signals about coming reversal of the market in favor of the US dollar.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[nizfx]

ew, trendline & fibo are good..and i use it....mr TT,,how do you know the end of wave?

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 20, 2010 2010-07-20




According to wave count this currency pair is still developing a long term wave up. The break under 131.17 will end this wave. The med term is down, we have wave 5 developing (colored red on the chart). The break above 133.42 will end the whole wave down from 135.80 to 131.74.
In case the price continues moving to the downside the nearest targets will be Fibonacci expansion points off 135.80-134.22-135.58, 135.58-131.94-133.42.
Price targets below the current level:
- 131.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 131.17 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.78 = objective point (OP)
In case the price resumes moving to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fib retracement points of 133.42-131.74 и 135.80-131.74:
- 133.02 = .764 retracement
- 133.29 = .382 ret
- 133.77 = .50 ret
- 134.25 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly in the overbought area. However the nearest Fib resistance is 133.02, 133.29. In case of topping signal it is safe to enter short against these resistances.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 20, 2010 2010-07-20




According to wave count this currency pair is trading at the beginning of potential wave C of the intermediate uptrend (colored magenta on the chart).
The targets of the movement to the upside are Fibonacci expansion points off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633, 0.8633-0.8718-0.8654, we should also take Fib retracements of 0.8870-0.8633 and 0.8848-0.8633 into consideration.
The nearest resistances look the following way:
- 0.8779 = .618 retracement
- 0.8792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.8797 = .764 ret
- 0.8814 = .764 ret
- 0.8877 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.8977 = contracted objective point (COP)
In case the price resumes moving to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracement points of the latest leg up from 0.8633.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly overbought. This does not mean sell, since the prevailing trend - long and med term - is up. So it's reasonable to wait for a retracement some 40-60 pips down and see if a bottoming signal confirms the planned long position.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[IFX Svetlana]

IMF, Afghanistan Agree On US$125 Mln Economic Programme

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it reached in an agreement with Afghanistan on a new three-year economic program that could be supported by US$125 million financial aid.

"The main goals of the program are to move Afghanistan towards financial sustainability, ensure that the money spent is well used, and build capacity for policy implementation," said Masood Ahmed, IMF Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department said. The program will complement the broader development agenda that bilateral and multilateral partners will be supporting and will include a package of technical assistance from the IMF, he added.

Enrique Gelbard, IMF mission chief for Afghanistan said despite serious constraints, Afghanistan has been making progress under its economic program. Growth has been strong, inflation has been controlled, and tax collection has grown significantly since 2009.

He noted that Afghanistan government is committed to consolidating these achievements under its new program, which contains policies to keep inflation low, strengthen banking supervision and regulation, achieve sustained increases in fiscal revenues, ensure transparency in the mining sector, and improve efficiency in the budget process and public spending while protecting the poor.

The agreement reached with the Afghanistan authorities is subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board. Consideration of the program by the Executive Board is expected in late August.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 21, 2010 2010-07-21




This currency pair has just ended the mid term downside wave 135.80-131.42 as 133.42 has been broken to the upside. The latter level is the base of subwave 5. At the moment the nearest resistances are Fibonacci retracement points of 135.80-131.42.
Price targets above the current level:
- 133.61 = .50 retracement, reached already
- 134.13 = .618 retracement
- 134.77 = .764 retracement
In case the price resumes its movement to the downside the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracement points of 131.42-133.71.
Price targets below the current level:
- 132.29 = .618 ret
- 131.96 = .764 ret
So far we haven't any Fibonacci expansions, since there are no impulses and corresponding corrective waves to make projections from.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is near its zero level. As soon as the major wave is up, we would be better off if we search for a long entry against a Fib support in the vicinity of 132.29-131.96 - this area corresponds to oversold readings of the Detrended and represents 2 Fib retracements.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 21, 2010 2010-07-21




According to wave count this currency pair is now developing potential wave C of the intermediate uptrend. The wave will be confirmed if 0.8870 is broken to the upside. And it ends in case 0.8633 is broken to the downside. The price targets of the upside movement are Fibonacci expansions off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633, 0.8633-0.8813-0,8712, 0,8712-0,8845-0,8801.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.8883 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.8892 = objective point (OP)
- 0.8934 = OP
- 0.8977 = COP
- 0.9003 = expanded objective point (XOP)
In case the price reverses to the downside the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.8712.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is moving to the overbought area. Since the major trend is up, it's reasonable to wait for a tradable retracement some 40-50 pips below and calculate a corresponding Fib-node.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010