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Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex





GBP/JPY has just ended the upside movement 131.17-135.80 having broken 131.17 - since this is the base of the upwave. At the moment we have weekly wave C (colored plum on the chart). Its targets are Fibonacci expansions off 136.00-131.17-135.80. More targets are represented by Fib expansions off waves of smaller degree - 135.80-131.42-133.71, 133.71-132.30-133.61.
Price targets below the current level:
- 131.00-130.97 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 129.92 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 129.33 = OP
In case the price reverses to the upside the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracement points of the downwave starting from 133.71.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is slightly below the zero level. Assuming that the prevailing trend is down it's better to wait for a tradable retracement some 60-80 pips up and then calculate the nearest Fibonacci resistance. In case of a topping signal the Fib-node will be the best price to enter short.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 



According to wave count this currency pair is now developing potential wave C of the intermediate downtrend (colored magenta on the chart). The latter in its turn is regarded a corrective wave to 0.8314-0.8870 movement (colored royal blue on the chart). The targets of the downside movement are Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8314-0.8870 and expansions off 0.8870-0.8633-0.8858 and 0.8858-0.8798-0.8842.
Price targets below the current level:
- 0.8712 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.8685 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.8621 = objective point (OP)
- 0.8592 = .50 retracement
- and so on, see the image
In case the price reverses to the upside the strategic targets are Fibonacci expansions off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633. Minor targets are Fib retracements of 0.8858-0.8732.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.8798 = .50 ret
- 0.8812 = .618 ret
- 0.8977 = COP (a strategic target)



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is moving into the overbought area possibly indicating a med term reversal, since the previous indicator peak may be exceeded. If you follow short term intraday strategies, the nearest Fib resistances may be good levels to enter short in case of topping signals. For a med term trader it's better to wait for a retracement down to a significant Fib support to search for bottoming signals.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 







As we have already mentioned, the USD/JPY price has shaped a 5-wave structure, having possibly determined the market reversal against the yen. If it is true, then yesterday’s drop can be the forming 2nd wave (or b) of this future upward segment, which is probable to take the form of a correction. On the other hand, considering the intensity of the downward trend starting July 14, complication of the 5th wave can be allowed, which will shape a convergent wedge in this case.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 
China And Singapore Announce Bilateral Currency Swap Deal

The People's Bank of China and the Monetary Authority of Singapore on Friday agreed to a bilateral currency swap arrangement.

The swap arrangement will provide Chinese Yuan liquidity of up to CNY 150 billion and Singapore dollar liquidity of up to S$30 billion. The agreement has a maturity of three years and can be extended by agreement between the two sides.
The agreement intended to promote trade and direct investment for economic development between two nations, was announced at the 7th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation Meeting held in Beijing. "The bilateral currency swap arrangement is a key pillar of co-operation between the PBoC and the MAS to strengthen regional economic resilience and financial stability," MAS said in a statement.

News are provided by InstaForex.
 




This currency pair is now developing an intermediate uptrend. All the waves and subwaves of the trend are up (C). From the long-term perspective the price is trading in the range limited by 136.45-130.40. Weekly wave C (colored plum on the chart) has precisely reached its objective point (COP) - 130.97.
The targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 130.80-133.29-132.39, 132.39-134.88-133.86:
- 135.40 = contracted objective point (COP), reached
- 136.35-42 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 137.89 = XOP
- 138.91 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
In case the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports are Fib retracement points of waves up starting from 132.39 and 130.80.



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is now at the zero level. However the oversold area does not necessarily mean a buy, since the movement up was very sharp. It's better to wait for a deep retracement to a significant Fib-support (134.38, 134.02, 133.66).

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 



This currency pair is now moving within longterm and intermediate uptrend. The nearest strategic target - contracted objective point off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633 - has been reached (0.8977). However this does not mean the advance is over. The nearest resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.8633-0.8858-0.8737, 0.8737-0.8970-0.8895.
The price targets above the current level look the following way:
- 0.9039 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9101-09-28 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP), and 2 OP's
In case the price starts declining the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracement point of 0.8737-0.8980.
Supports:
- 0.8887 = .382 retracement
- 0.8859 = .50 ret
- 0.8830 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is at the zero level. Assuming that the major trend is up it's better to wait for a retracement some 40-50 pips below that corresponds to the nearest Fib-support - 0.8887 (.382 retracement). In case a bottoming signal appears a "buy" is favored.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 
Yen Tumbles To Fresh Multi-week Lows Against Some Majors

Tuesday during early European deals, the yen plummeted to fresh multi-week lows against the currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Europe as a rise in European stocks reduced demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, the yen plunged to a 12-day low against the Canadian dollar.

European stocks soared in early deals on strong results from UBS and Deutsche Bank. Germany's DAX rose 0.3% in early deals, France's CAC 40 index climbed 0.75% and U.K.'s FTSE 10 index gained 0.6%.

However, Tokyo stocks ended almost flat today as the market awaited a series of earnings reports from Japanese companies this week.

After drifting in and out of negative territory, the 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average finished 6.81 points, or 0.07 percent, lower from Monday at 9,496.85.

Swiss banking giant UBS AG reversed to a profit in its second quarter, helped by excellent performance of its Investment Bank business. The segment also benefited by a gain on its own debt. At the same time, the company noted that withdrawals from its wealth management business slowed.

UBS said that it made a profit of CHF 2.005 billion or US$1.911 billion compared to a loss of CHF 1.402 billion in the year-ago period, although it trailed the previous quarter's profit of CHF 2.202 billion.

German financial services firm Deutsche Bank reported a higher profit for the second quarter, helped by a sharp decline in provision for credit losses and strong revenue growth in its Global Transaction Banking and Asset Management businesses.

Net income attributable to Deutsche Bank shareholders was EUR 1.16 billion, or about US$1.51 billion, compared with EUR 1.09 billion in the prior-year quarter. Earnings per share were EUR 1.75 versus EUR 1.64 a year earlier.

An encouraging German GfK consumer confidence report released today also lifted investors sentiment.

German consumer climate is set to improve in August, as employment prospects brightened, results of a key survey showed. The consumer confidence index logged 3.9 for August, up from a revised 3.6 in July, a monthly survey from GfK Group showed. That was in contrast to an expected fall to 3.5.

The yen declined against the Australian dollar during early European session on Tuesday. As of now, the yen is trading near a 5-week low of 79.11 against the aussie, compared to 78.46 hit late New York Monday. On the downside, 80.9 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency.

During early European deals on Tuesday, the yen slipped against the New Zealand dollar. The kiwi-yen pair that closed yesterday's trading at 63.79 is now worth 64.25. This set the lowest level for the yen since June 23. If the yen weakens further, it may likely target the 65.4 level.

The yen plunged against the Canadian dollar in early European deals on Tuesday. As of now, the yen is trading at a 12-day low of 84.96 against the loonie and the next downside target level for the yen is seen at 86.5. At yesterday's close, the loonie-yen pair was quoted at 84.22.

At 4:35 am ET Tuesday, the yen slumped to near an 8-week low of 113.73 against the euro. At present, the yen is worth 113.65 against the euro with 114.2 seen as the next downside target level. The euro-yen pair closed yesterday's trading at 112.90.

The yen declined against the currencies of US and UK during early European deals on Tuesday. Currently, the yen is worth 135.20 against the pound and 87.40 against the dollar, compared to yesterday's close of 134.59 and 86.88, respectively. If the yen drops further, it may likely target 87.7 against the dollar and 135.6 against the pound.

Looking ahead, the U.S. consumer confidence for July and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for May have been slated for release in the New York morning.


News are provided by InstaForex.
 




Pound/yen is standing in the beginning of potential wave 5 of the intermediate uptrend (colored orange red on the chart). Wave 5 is confirmed in cawe 135.55 is broken to the upside, and it is cancelled if its base 134.39 is broken to the downside.
We calculate the targets of the bullish movement using Fibonacci expansions off 130.80-133.29-132.39 and 132.39-135.55-134.39.
So here are the targets above the current level:
- 136.34-42 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 137.55 = objective point (OP)
In case the price reverses to the downside the nearest targets below the current level are Fibonacci retracements of 132.49-135.55 and 130.80-135.55^
- 134.38 = .382 retracement, the price reversed within 1 pip against it
- 134.02 = .50 ret
- 133.74-66 = confluence area of .382 and .618 ret
- 133.21-18 = confluence area of .764 and .50



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended is now oscillating around its zero level and its swings are not that violent as before, indicating a flat market. Assuming that the prevailing trend is ub, it's reasonable to wait for a retracement to a Fib-support (listed above) and in case of a bottoming signal enter long.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 



This currency pair is still developing longterm and intermediate uptrend. However the intermediate trend is now being corrected. Potential wave 4 is developing.
The targets of the corrective wave are Fibonacci retracements of 0.8941-0.9034, 0.8895-0.9034, 0.8737-0.9034:
- 0.8998 = .382 retracement, the price reversed within 1 pip
- 0.8987-81-77 = confluence area of .50, .382, and .618 ret
- 0.8964 = .50
- and so on, see the image
If the price keeps moving to the upside the targets will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633, 0.8633-0.8858-0.8737, 0,8737-0.8970-0.8895.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.9039 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9101-09 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and objective point (OP)
- 0.9128 = OP
- 0.9189 = OP



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is slightly above its zero level indicating a bullish impulse. Assuming that the major trend is up it's better to wait for a retracement to one of the levels listed above. In case a bottoming signal occurs - a long position is favored.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 28, 2010 2010-07-28




According to wave count this currency pair is now developing wave C of weekly degree (colored silver on the chart). The strategic targets are Fibonacci expansions off waves A-B - 130.40-136.00-130.80:
- 136.40 = objective point (OP), reached already
- 139.86 = expanded objective point (XOP)
Minor targets of the upside movement are represented by Fibonacci expansions off waves of smaller degree (colored red on the chart) - 130.80-135.55-134.39. So the additional targets are:
- 137.33 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 139.14 = OP
As for the corrective wave which is now forming (colored yellow), its targets are Fibonacci retracements of 134.39-137.20:
- 136.13 = .382 retracement
- 135.79 = .50 ret
- 135.46 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended is now oscillating close to the zero line. Assuming that the prevailing trend is up even the slightest movement below the 0 can be a good opportunity to enter long. Even better if this level is a Fib-node, e.g. 136.13 (.382 ret) or 135.79 (.50 ret). Enter only in case of a bottoming signal.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 

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