Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 13, 2010 2010-07-13




This currency pair is now moving within a weekly wave up. This wave will be cancelled in case 131.17 is broken, since this level is the base of the wave. The intermediate trend is down and is viewed as a correction to the weekly uptrend. The targets of the corrective wave down are Fibonacci retracement points of 131.17-134.63 and expansions off 134.63-132.54-133.74 and 133.74-132.66-133.62.
Nearest price targets below the current level:
- 132.54-59-45 = confluence area of objective point (OP), .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 131.99 = .764 ret
- 131.87 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 131.65 = OP
In case the price keeps advancing the nearest resistances will be Fib retracement points of 134.63-132.54 and expansions off 131.17-134.63-132.54.
Immediate resistances:
- 133.83 = .618 ret
- 134.68 = COP
- 136.00 = OP



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is heading into the oversold area. One could combine it with a Fib level not far, which is 132.54-45, to search for bottoming signals and to enter long.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 13, 2010 2010-07-13




AUD/USD is now moving within corrective wave 4 of the intermediate uptrend. This wave corresponds to its classical discription of being choppy and flat. The targets of the downside corrective movement are Fibonacci retracements of 0.8446-0.8787, 0.8314-0.8787 and expansion points off 0.8787-0.8688-0.8782 and 0.8782-0.8701-0.8779.
The targets below the current level look the following way:
- 0.8698 = objective point (OP)
- 0.8683 = OP
- 0.8657-48 = confluence area of .382 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.8622-17 = confluence area of XOP and .50 ret
- etc., see img.
In case the price advances and breaks 0.8787 the nearest targets will be Fib expansion points off 0.8314-0.8556-0.8446 and 0.8446-0.8787-0.866.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.8838 = XOP
- 0.8899 = contracted objective point (COP)



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly in the oversold area. However, considering a very thin and flat market it will be reasonable to wait for a breakout, that will show the direction of the intermediate trend. Therefore it's better not to initiate any positions.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[IFX Svetlana]

U.S. Trade Balance Shows Biggest Deficit Since November 2008

Imports in the month of May rose at a slightly faster pace than exports, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, with the report subsequently showing an unexpected increase in the size of the U.S. trade deficit.

The Commerce Department said that the trade deficit widened to $42.3 billion in May from $40.3 billion in April. The wider trade deficit came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $39.4 billion.

With the unexpected increase, the size of the trade deficit reached its highest level since coming in at $43.8 billion in November of 2008.

Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, said, "The higher than expected trade figure may cut Q2 GDP estimates by up to 0.3 of a percentage point."

"With the U.S. economy becoming less dependent on the U.S. consumer, we must make things the rest of the world wants and improving and growing our export sector is a vital component of the future economic health of our country," he added.

The wider deficit reflected a notable increase in the value of imports, which rose by 2.9 percent to $194.5 billion in May from $189.0 billion in April. The increase lifted the value of imports to the highest level since October of 2008.

Nonetheless, the jump in the value of imports was partly offset by a 2.4 percent increase in the value of exports, which rose to $152.3 billion in May from $148.7 billion in May. Exports rose to their highest level since September of 2008.

The report also showed that the goods deficit widened to $54.5 billion in May from $52.5 billion in April, while the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $12.2 billion.

Additionally, the Commerce Department said that the politically-sensitive trade deficit with China widened to $22.3 billion in May from $19.3 billion in April.


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[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 14, 2010 2010-07-14




This currency pair is now developing impulse wave C of the intermediate uptrend (colored magenta on the chart). The corrective wave B stopped at .618 retracement point of wave A (132.49). The targets of wave C are Fibonacci expansions off 130.40-136.00-131.17, 131.17-134.63-132.35 and 132.35-134.06-133.42.
The nearest price targets above the current level are:
- 135.81 = objective point (OP), 8 pips to go
- 136.19 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 136.77 = OP
In case the price turns to a correction the nearest supports will be Fib retracement points of 133.42-135.73 and 132.35-135.73:
- 134.85 = .382 retracement
- 135.57 = .50 ret
- 134.44 = .382 ret
- 134.30 = .618 ret
- etc., see the image



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly in the oversold area. The worthiest supports to enter against will be nearest Fib retracements 50-70 pips below - in the area of 135.85-134.44.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 14, 2010 2010-07-14




AUD/USD is now developing wave 5 of the intermediate uptrend (colored red on the chart). The targets of the upside movement are Fibonacci expansion points off waves 1-2 (0.8314-0.8556-0.8446) and 3-4 (0.8446-0.8787-0.8682).
The nearest price targets above the current level are:
- 0.8838 = expanded objective point (XOP), reached already
- 0.8893 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9023 = objective point (OP)
However the intermediate trend is now being corrected. And the targets of the corrective wave B (colored yellow on the chart) are Fib retracement point of 0.8682-0.8849:
- 0.8785 = .382 retracement
- 0.8765 = .50 ret
- 0.8746 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is moving into the oversold area. However combined with Fibonacci studies, the best levels to search for reversal signals for buys are 0.8785 and 0.8765 as they're the nearest Fibonacci supports.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 15, 2010 2010-07-15




GBP/JPY is now moving within longterm and intermediate uptrend. However, the intermediate trend is now being corrected, wave B is developing (colored orange red on the chart). The targets of the corrective wave B are Fibonacci retracement points of 132.35-135.80 and expansions off 135.80-134.28-135.60.
The targets below the current level are:
- 134.08-07 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 133.67 = .618 retracement
- 133.16-14 = confluence area of .764 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
In case the price advances the nearest targets above are Fibonacci expansions off 130.40-136.00-131.17, 131.17-134.68-132.35, 132.35-135.80-134.28.
The nearest targets above are:
- 135.81 = objective point (OP)
- 134.61 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 136.77 = OP



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is slightly below the zero level. However the nearest oversold level lies within 20-30 pips away, if we look at Fibonacci supports - it is 134.08-07 area that we have to watch for. In case a reversal signal appears there a long positin is favored.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 15, 2010 2010-07-15




AUD/USD is still standing in longterm and intermediate uptrend. The confirmation of the intermediate trend is the break of 0.8870. The trend is cancelled if price breaks 0.8682, since this level is the base of the most recent leg up. However the intermediate trend is now being corrected, and the targets of the downside movement are Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8682-0.8870 and 0.8314-0.8870.
Here are the nearest supports:
- 0.8776 = .50 retracement
- 0.8754 = .618 retracement
- 0.8658 = .382 retracement
In case the price keeps moving upward the targets above remain the same:
- 0.8893 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9023 = objective point (OP)



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is slightly below the zero level. The oversold are is within 10-20 pips away. The nearest Fib support that corresponds to this area is 0.8776. So if the price provides a reversal signal against this level a long position from this area is favored.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[IFX Darika]

No Let Up In Sight As Dollar Falls Further

The dollar continued to decline Thursday morning as improving growth prospects in Asia and Europe made counterparts in those regions more attractive.
At the same time, a recent string of troubling economic data from the US has fueled concerns that the domestic recovery is petering out.
Yesterday's disappointing retail sales report confirmed that consumers are anxious amid lingering problems in the labor and housing markets.
JP Morgan Chase has joined the growing line of companies to have reported better than expected earnings results this week, propping up stock futures and generating risk appetite.
Higher-yielding currencies like the euro tend to benefit from increased capacity for risk.
The dollar dropped to a fresh 2-month low versus the euro, extending its big July losses. The buck slipped to 1.2825, moving a full ten cents from June's 4-year high of 1.1805.
The eurozone economy is likely to grow at a "moderate and uneven" pace while inflationary pressures in the 16-nation bloc remain contained, the European Central Bank says.
In its latest monthly bulletin, the ECB said the risks to the euro area's economic outlook are "broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty."
There was no relief for the dollar against the sterling. The buck fell to 1.5363, its lowest since late April.
Against the yen, the dollar pulled back to 87.84. Late in June, the dollar hit a 2010 low of 86.95.
The Bank of Japan has sharply revised up its fiscal 2010 growth forecast for the country's economy, citing the acceleration of growth in emerging economies.
A plethora of key economic data will keep traders on their toes throughout Thursday's session.
At 8:30 am ET, the Labor Department will release its weekly jobless claims report, with economists forecasting a modest drop in claims to 450,000 in the recent reporting week from the 454,000 for the previous week.
The Labor Department is also due to release its producer price index for June at 8:30 am ET. The recent dip in oil prices is expected to act as a drag on the headline number, with economists expecting a 0.1% drop in the producer price index. At the same time, the core producer price index is likely to show 0.1% growth.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[IFX Darika]

Greek Jobless Rate Drops In March

Greek jobless rate dropped in March from the preceding month.

The jobless rate was 11.6% in March, down from 12.1% in the previous month, the statistical office said on Thursday. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 9.2%.

The number of unemployed totaled 578,723 in March, larger than 457,024 persons in the previous year. At the same time, the number of employed decreased to 4.42 million from 4.49 million a year ago.

Greek consumer price inflation eased in June. The consumer price index rose 5.2% annually in June, slower than a 5.4% growth in the previous month. Inflation rate eased for the first time since May 2009.

The economy contracted at a faster pace in the first quarter. The gross domestic product dropped 1% sequentially in the first quarter, faster than the 0.8% decline in the previous quarter. The GDP decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 16, 2010 2010-07-16




Under the wave count this currency pair is developing corrective wave B of the longterm uptrend. The targets of wave B are Fibonacci retracement points of 131.17-135.80. There are more targets, provided by waves of a smaller degree. These are Fibonacci expansion points off 135.80-134.22-135.58, 135.58-134.08-135.36.
Nearest price targets below the current level are:
- 134.07-00 = confluence area of .50, .382 retracements, and objective point (OP)
- 133.81 = OP
- 133.67 = .618 ret
- 133.49 = .50 ret
- 133.16 = .764 ret
- 133.02-132.94 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- 132.85 = XOP
- and so on, see the img.
In case the price resumes its movement to the topside the nearest strategic target is:
- 136.77 = OP



Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is clearly oversold, so it's a good time to seek an opportunity to enter long with the prevailing trend. The nearest levels to watch are - 134.00, 133.81, 133.67, 133.49. However it's not advisable to fade this downside movement, it's better to wait for a true reversal against one of these levels to be on the safe side.

Performed by Denis Strelkov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010