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[Volkov Yuriy]

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Daily Forex market review 3 August 2016

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- Today the United States will publish the reports on employment from ADP and business activity in the field of services from ISM. Taking into account the fast economic growth, both indicators may be better than the consensus forecast, which is positive for US dollar.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shapes the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is in the overboughtness area and has formed a divergence there, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten) .
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- In the afternoon, we will probably see the negative release on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. It will put the oil under pressure and in this regard, we can see the demand in the US currency, as the cost of commodity is denominated in US dollars.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3365 (one thirty three sixty five) and take profit at 1,3265 (one thirty two sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- An outflow of capital from risky assets supported the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before, on US stock market, the index of "fear" VIX S&P500 grew by 7.4% (seven dot four per cent), which means the downtrend.
- ADX Indicator on the monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend; on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts it shows the flat
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.30 (one hundred and one dot thirty) and take profit at 100.60 (one hundred sharply dot sixty)
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[Volkov Yuriy]

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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
Spread between yield of 10 years' US and German bonds is expanded, which is negative for euro. Oil correction will be short-term and soon we will see another drop of quotations to the psychological level $40 per barrel, which is negative for euro, too. So, this is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the hourly chart has formed a divergence and this was done in the oversoldness zone. So, it shows the uptrend on the hourly chart.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1165 (one dot eleven sixty five) and take profit at 1,1100 (one dot eleven double zero).
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The main event today will be announcement of results of the Bank of England's meeting on monetary policy. If the Bank of England cuts the rate, this may cause a fall of the British currency. If the rate remains at the same level, the pound may grow.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: If the Bank of England cuts the rate, we should open Sell positions so that take profit in 100 points.
If the Bank of England does not cut the interest rate, we should open Buy position so that take profit in 50 points.
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Today's trading results will be determined by the "risk appetite" of investors. On Wednesday, the shares of Deutsche Bank were excluded from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The reason was a heavy drop of its capitalization. This is another wake-up call for players of the stock market as Deutsche Bank is a financial institution number one in Europe. So, this is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on a monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend. On the hourly chart, it is the uptrend
- On the hourly chart RSI indicator is approaching the oversoldness zone, which indicates that the upward correction is over.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.70 (one hundred and one seventy) and take profit at 101.00. ( (one hundred and one sharply)
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[Volkov Yuriy]

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Daily Forex market review 5 August 2016

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- If we see a total NPF figure above the 200 (two hundred thousand), that will be enough to strengthen the US currency. This result is very probable, because in July the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since 1973 (nineteen seventy three), which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1080-1,1180 (one ten eighty – one eleven eighty).
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The Bank of England has cut the key rate by 0.25% (zero dot twenty five per cent) and enhanced its QE program. It intends to lower the rate again later this year. GDP forecasts for 2016 - 2018 years were revised in the negative direction, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- There is a strong bearish candle formed on August 4, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3145 (one thirty one forty five) and take profit at 1,3065 (one thirty one sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Global stock markets are growing, which should lift the pair, but traders ignored positive background. It indicates presence of a large number of sellers in the market, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,60-101,60 (one hundred dot sixty - one hundred and one sixty)
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[Volkov Yuriy]

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[Volkov Yuriy]

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Daily Forex market review 25 August 2016

Currency market review for August twenty fifth
EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
Release by the IFO institute can be a little worse than it was expected. The reason is that PMI composite index by Markit institution was released below the median forecast. Sales in the commodity market usually support US dollar, becase the cost of commodities is denominated in US currency. Thus, the trend is downward.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it shows the flat.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1245 -1.1295 (one twelve forty five - one twelve ninety five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)
The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)
- On the one hand, yield of the 10-years UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds, which is positive for the pound. On the other hand, yesterday oil closed the day in the "red zone", and the negative trend is still relevant, which will put the pair GBP/USD under pressure. Thus, it is the flat.
- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart it is the uptrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3200 - 1.3265 (one thirty two double zero - one thirty two sixty five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Growth of the index of fear VIX by 8.6% (eight dot six per cent) for the third trading day in a row signals a possible inflow of capital into safe assets, which usually the Japanese yen is related to. Thus, the trend is downward.
- Both indicators – ADX and RSI - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 100,55 (one hundred dot fifty five) and take profit at 100,15 (one hundred dot fifteen).
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[Volkov Yuriy]

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[Volkov Yuriy]

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crude oil supported at 48.51

Gold weekly review

Crude oil supported at 48.51

Weekly Review:

The yellow metal continues to consolidate within the contracting triangular formation. As long as the metal trades within this wedge, we expect a possible bullish price movements towards $1307 or even higher. A clear breakout below the lower trend line forming bottom of the wedge could culminate into a possible bearish price movements $1244 or even lower. This commodity should be traded alongside gold, only remain long in gold if silver is giving the same signal, any serious discrepancy between their price action could mean we're standing aside.

Trade Recommendation:
As long as the commodity trades within the rising wedge, remain long. Any clear breakout below the wedge will mean looking for short positions with an ideal target at $1244.
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[Volkov Yuriy]

Euro in a corrective mode

28 November 2016, EUR/USD

Euro in a corrective mode
Wave Analysis:
Earlier today, Euro gapped above a key resistance level 1.06087, headed long but is currently retreating towards it. We expect the level 1.06513 to have marked the end of the impulsive wave (3) that the current downward rally is the unfolding of the corrective wave (4) and must not go beyond the end of wave (1) from where we'll be looking to buy the next motive wave (5) towards 1.0724. In the meantime, we choose to remain short with the corrective wave (4) towards 1.10687 Expect a similar wave count in NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.96% and will have a similar price action during intaday.
Trade recommendations:

Expect a possible bearish price rally towards 1.06087
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