This week is going to be speculator’s haven that can push the price even with lowest efforts as the trading volumes & liquidity are very less. The pair is expected to trade in a tight range from 1.0400 to 1.0500. With nothing much to look forward this week in a holiday mode with the year ending, most traders would stay away from trading! Traders might even want to liquidate some of their trades!
Cable is in a tight range from 1.2200 to 1.2300. With no appreciable economic data or other scheduled events, traders might keep a keen an eye on big market impact news and the usual chatters/rumors! With nothing much from the forex world, some of the clues for movements might come from other markets like stocks and bonds! Traders especially small retail traders needs to be cautious as the dull market might turn aggressive catching them unawares with expected big losses!
Yesterday, instead of going short as forecasted, the pair retraced to the upper side and is currently in a process of a triple top formation with the top being around 1.06122. We expect a possible bearish rebound from this level to culminate into a bearish wave count towards 1.054 or even lower to 1.0389. Buy positions may only be reconsidered above the previous day's highest high. Expect a similar wave count in GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and EURHKD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.86% and will have a similar price action during this intraday. Only buy or sell euro if the other pairs are giving the same signal.
As previously forecasted, the pair traded massively long following the break above 1.06517 but is currently declining in an upward momentum. We expect the current bearish wave count on the 4H chart to be a mere corrective move and should not go beyond 1.0682 from where we'll be looking to buy the impulsive wave (5) to the upper side. Alternatively, we could wait for a clear break above the short term resistance level 1.07113 to go long with our previous target still intact at 1.08849. Expect an exact similar wave count in NZDUSD, and AUDUSD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +86% and will have a similar price action during this intraday.
EUR/JPY has continued to climb during the week and eventually closed out at 122.70 level, it’s likely that we will see the trend pushing for more with 123/124 level, but may remain around that without any major events.
AUD/USD continued from last week with the pair pilling up further and going to 0.7550 mark, it’s likely that we will see similar trend, but there might be some pull back soon which could again open up chance for long trade.
Euro bound within the range 1.0722-1.0771
Wave Analysis:
Following the break above 1.0712, Euro entered into a consolidation not going above 1.0771 or below 1.0712. As long as this pair trades within this equilibrium zone, we choose to trade reversals from from these levels. Any clear break breakout above this zone will mean we're continuing long with impulsive wave (5) towards 1.084 while a break below 1.0712 may invalidate the anticipated upward rally and could push the price lower to 1.06177 or even lower to 1.0548. A clear break above 1.0771 in the EURUSD chart will mean a break below 112.54 in the USDJPY chart. These two pairs, eurusd & usdjpy, have a strong negative correlation and will have an exact opposite price action during this intraday. Only buy or sell euro if usdjpy is giving you an exact opposite signal.
Yesterday, Euro made a fresh weekly low of 1.06393 but ended up closing at 1.06968, just a few pips above our weekly pivot level 1.06664. Since the previous week's candle was a perfect bullish engulfing candle along a key pivot level 1.06664, we expect an acceleration to the upper side as long as the pair remains above this pivot level. Thus, we'll remain long with our first target at 1.07522, any clear breakout above this level will push the price further to the upper side towards 1.1059 or even higher. Expect a similar wave count in GBPUSD. These pairs will have a similar price action during this intraday.
EUR/USD so far this week has picked up nicely after heavy dip we saw yesterday, but still the levels have stayed very much in stable zone, it still puts the spot light on bears which might come into play, but still the trend is neutral.
GBP/USD has pretty much stayed steady and is very much in neutral zone as we see. It’s likely to remain in no man’s land, but if there is for taking than we will see the trend running towards sell, but needs to be wise with timing.
