The pair is falling in early trading. The general trend is still down.
Support is likely to come from former trend lines, one providing support in the 93.70 region and the other at 93.30 (these will move lower slightly over the course of the day). 93.40 is also support.
94.25 is minor resistance on the upside, followed by 94.40, 94.60, 94.80 and 95.00. Another trend line comes into play between 94.80 and 94.60 as well providing resistance.
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EUR/USD's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.4791 so far. Further rally should still be seen towards 1.4867 key resistance. But after all, we'd continue to expect further loss of upside momentum and reversal signal as EUR/USD approaches this level. On the downside, break of 1.4611 support will now be an early signal that EUR/USD has topped out and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.4446 resistance turned support first.[actionforex]
P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 7X3 or(0.14%) CLOSE
Data 1.4801 - 1.4612 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.12 Day
Database 1612 records 1.48013 (Last Close) 2009-09-21 08~56
2009-09-22 11~51 (GMT+01:00) Paris
Although the single currency rose marginally to 1.5064 in the beginning of last week, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen. A daily close below 1.4674-83 minor support would add credence to this view and further fall towards support at 1.4480 but it is necessary to see a clear break of this level to confirm and bring correction of recent upmove to 1.4232 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2885 to 1.5064) would follow.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD60 Box Size 40X3 or(0.83%) HI/LO
Data 1.5062 - 1.3832 ~ 4 Month ~ 118.04 Day
Database 2001 records 1.47681 (Last Close) 2009-07-07 11~00
2009-11-02 12~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group"
The Euro enjoyed good PMI figures and an excellent score on business climate last week. Apart from the rate decision, CPI, and the German employment change are very important. Also note the Final GDP release, which is expected to confirm the end of recession in Q3. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:
"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 110X3 or(0.22%) CLOSE
Data 1.5144 - 1.4809 ~ 0 Month ~ 7.95 Day
Database 1704 records 1.49869 (Last Close) 2009-11-20 00~00
2009-11-27 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
The second week of the New Year did not offer much in terms of breakouts from the recent consolidation ranges. Fundamentals reflect a slow recovery and risk appetite also remained subdued this week after some initial rally. Let's take a look at some major currency pairs.
EUR/USD Stalking Consolidation
Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD is heading back to the support of its consolidation. The stochastic in the daily has crossed and today’s price action seems to be very aggressive, though we still have a few hours to go.
Looking at the 4H time-frame, it will be interesting to see if the 78.6% retracement level at 1.4330 can hold. This may give way to a throwback scenario, which does not have to reach 1.4450, but it is a preferred scenario as this will make this previous support into resistance.
If the decline then continues a swing, it is projected to the 1.4200 area. If 1.4200 breaks, this is the decline to start the continuation towards the 1.37-1.38 area (61.8% retracement in the daily time-frame).[Written by CMS Forex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 75X3 or(1.6%) HI/LO
Data 1.5135 - 1.2924 ~ 9 Month ~ 275 Day
Database 1050 records 1.4387 (Last Close) 2009-04-15 00~00
2010-01-15 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.3585 last week and the strong break of 1.3737 cluster support further confirm our view that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 first. Break will target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. On the upside, above 1.3744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.4025 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, three wave rise from 1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Break of 1.4217 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.[Written by ActionForex.com]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 134X4 or(3.83%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 1.1967 ~ 47 Month ~ 1425 Day
Database 1017 records 1.3628 (Last Close) 2006-03-16 00~00
2010-02-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
What's In Store for the EUR and the USD Next Week?
At the end of a volatile trading week which has seen a turmoil in Greek bonds and has culminated with a formal request from Greece for financial aid from the EU and IMF, I explore the important economic events for the week ahead and ponder what they may bring for the EUR and the USD, I examine this morning's EUR strengthening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP currency pairs, I note the bullish breakout of the USD vs. JPY, I examine the weakness of the GBP and CAD after series of disappointing economic reports from the U.K. and Canada.
This is my forecast!
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.33811 (Last Close) 2002-08-27 00~00 2010-04-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
Trade Idea: Eur/Usd- Buy at 1.3750\1.3800; Target: 1.3900\1.3950 ; Stop: 1.3700.
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The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.3790 on Friday after made a clear, strong and convincing breakout above 1.3670 resistance area.
From this point, beside minor resistance around 1.3800, I see no significant resistance until 1.3950, which is the next technical bullish target.
Break above 1.3950 could trigger further bullish scenario.
"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 300X3 or(7.42%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225; ~ 246.43 Month; ~ 7245 Day; ~ 20 Years
Database 1036 records; 1.379 (Last Close) 1990-11-25 00~00 2010-09-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"