Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Copper Slips Over Industrial Demand Decline

Copper extended the bearish momentum for the third consecutive weak and suffered losses amid a broad decline for industrial metals on Friday as worries over political instability and global demand prompted investors to cut bets on higher prices. Currently, copper is trading 255.65 intraday.

Investors have overestimated global growth and the impact of supply disruptions at major copper mines, said Norbert Rucker, head of commodity research at Julius Baer. Copper could slip to $5,200 a tonne in the next three months, he said.

* COPPER SUPPLY: The global refined copper market had a 51,000 tonne surplus in January, up from a 44,000 tonne surplus in January last year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. But the strike at the Escondida mine in February-March meant "next month's report should reflect a tighter market", analysts at ING said.

* FREEPORT EXPORTS: Freeport McMoran Inc's Indonesia unit has been granted a permit to export 1.11 million wet metric tonnes of copper concentrate until February of next year, a trade ministry official said. (Reuters).

* FREEPORT STRIKE: Freeport also warned that it would punish workers for absenteeism at its Indonesian operation, a day after one of its main unions announced plans for a one-month strike over employment conditions. (Reuters).
Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish

Resistance levels: R1 257.01, R2 259.36, R3 261.69

Support levels : S1 254.04, S2 249.35, S3 246.10

Comment: The market is triggering a downturn from congestion and targets a stretch down under 249.00. A close below 249.00 is bearish. Any correction should stay contained under 260.00 and use congestion to bear flag. A close above R3 level is needed for trend reversal and shift to higher prices.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 25th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Aussie Declines Despite Weaker U.S Dollar, Eyes On Local CPI

8 AM GMT, Australian dollar is showing weakness with 0.7530 weekly low with -41-pips price action, slightly (3-pips) below 200 SMA D1. Although U.S Dollar plunged today to 98.85 low, the Aussie failed to take advantage of current pale U.S Index. AUD/USD levels awaits local CPI tomorrow and on previous session, Australian CPI booked 0.5% and forecasts are expected to be 0.6%. U.S Consumer Confidence today also could add more pressure on the Aussie as U.S Dollar reacts on the outcome.

Latest inflation report released by Reserve Bank of Australia RBA indicates an inflation of 1.5% on Dec 2017. RBA Gov. Lowe will cross wires on Asian session this Thursday, and taking into consideration that CPI is highly positive as forecasts, and inflation less than 2%, expectations of a hawkish tone by Lowe is high where the Gov. could extend previous press conferences laying out a strong Australian economy which should re-boost the Aussie.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Consumer Confidence today at 2:00 PM GMT.

2- AUD - Consumer Price Index tomorrow at 1:30 AM GMT.

3- AUD - RBA Gov. Lowe speech opening session on Thursday.

4- USD - Core Durable Goods Order and Unemployment Claims both at 12:30 PM GMT on Thursday.

Technical Overview:

Trend : Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 0.7605, R2 0.7672, R3 0.7745

Support levels : S1 0.7505, S2 0.7439 , S3 0.7355

Comment: Expectation of high volatility for AUD/USD due to the colorful economic events. Gov. Lowe speech will set the tone the Aussie, as for U.S Dollar, the U.S Data will determine how U.S Index will perform the next hours.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude oil Slips Over Signs of Increasing U.S Oil Inventories And Weaker OPEC Compliance

Crude Oil prices plunged to $47.47 low on Tuesday, adding additional losses for this week with -$1.80, almost 3%, and on Wednesday, crude scored $47,80 low, currently trading 48.18 intraday. Crude bearish forces were the result of two factors.

1- U.S. production increased by more than 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the past five months ending in Feb, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total U.S. crude production has increased from a recent low of 8.567M bpd in Sep to 9.031M bpd in February (“Petroleum Supply Monthly”, EIA, April 28). Production continued rising in March and Apr, and now stands at over 9.2M bpd, according to weekly estimates published by the agency (“Weekly Petroleum Status Report”, EIA, April 26).

The rapid recovery in U.S. output is one of the factors making market re-balancing slower than OPEC anticipated. Most of the increase so far has come from non-shale producers in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. But the massive increase in the number of rigs drilling onshore should ensure shale output rises substantially in the remainder of 2017. Gulf of Mexico output rose by 228,000 bpd in the five months to February, while onshore production from the lower 48 states increased by 175,000 bpd and Alaska’s output rose 61,000 bpd. (Reuters).

2- OPEC oil output fell for a fourth straight month in April, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia kept production below its target while maintenance and unrest cut production in exempt nations Nigeria and Libya. But more oil from Angola and higher UAE output than originally thought helped OPEC compliance with its production-cutting deal slip to 90 percent from a revised 92 percent in March, according to Reuters surveys.

Eyes are focused now on May 25th where OPEC will meet again in Vienna where they will decide on extension for end of 2017. OPEC had already met on the end of 2016 where they agreed to cut oil production till June 2017 with efforts to curb global oil supply, which resulted in in highest levels for crude oil at $55.22 bp on Jan 2017.

There seems to a be a general consensus to do so, Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi minister of energy and industry and the de-facto OPEC leader, said last week. The United Arab Emirates insisted Tuesday that all participants -- which include some non-OPEC nations such as Russia -- need to commit to the effort. If OPEC meeting on 25th May was successful, market should expect a new crude record for 2016 aimed at $60 bp.

Today U.S Inventories will be published at 2:30 PM GMT which should bring new perspectives for crude levels.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Down / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 49.22, R2 50.17, R3 51.15

Support levels: S1 47.51, S2 46.94, S3 46.17

Comment: The market remains bearish but U.S crude inventories today should bring new perspectives for oil levels. A penetration for R1 level projects further bullish hikes with targets R2&R3 level. Closing below S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. A close above R2 level alerts for trend reversal and only closing above R3 confirms that market has shifted upward and crude to be considered bullish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Heads Up For FOMC Meeting Tonight

Market is poised with confusion about FOMC meeting tonight and possible outcomes. It is largely expected more than 90%, that US Fed are to leave current Interest Rates at current 1.00% without any changes which should send a short-term negative reaction, awaiting FOMC statement.

Now we have established the fact the U.S Central Banks will not touch the rates tonight, the statement and the following press conference will take center stage and as policymakers seem to shirt the path of monetary and fiscal from rates to the balance sheet. Yellen and Co. will cautiously choose their words with efforts to withhold U.S Dollar from further declines.

Last March during FOMC meeting, Yellen mentioned that changes on the balance sheet will depend on economic conditions, and latest data including weak GDP last week and poor macroeconomic readings have lead markets to doubt that the central bank will raise rates two more times this year, with three "live" meetings ahead that could offer such outcome: June, September and December.

If the FOMC meeting hinted that market should not expect a hike during June, markets will assume that chances for additional rate increase this year will be left at one taking into consideration that the U.S Fed will unlikely to raise rates on two consecutive sessions. This would result in a negative impact for U.S Dollar. But in case June is left on the rate menu with high odds, a chances for two hikes including this June and end of Year 2017, this should handle boosting the U.S Dollar for the short-run.

A hawkish scenario is unlikely, and unless the Fed clearly indicates that two rate hikes are still on the table, dollar gains are likely to be short-term and limited, not enough to revert the sour tone that surrounds current pale U.S Dollar. Last U.S Fed hike that resulted in 0.25%, it was seen that U.S Dollar dipping instead of surging. This was justified that March hike was largely expected and market traded on " Buy the rumor, sell the fact".

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Sterling Retreats as U.S Dollar Strengthen, Eyes on Local PMI

Yesterday, market was cheerful and satisfied with FOMC statement despite the fact that U.S Interest Rates were left unchanged at current 1.00 as market were already expecting it. June odds were increased up to 75%, as a result, GBP/USD had to submit to bullish U.S Dollar with -82-pips price action and 1.2864 low.

Today, GBP/USD clocked 1.2850 May-fresh-lows as U.S Index still under the positive shock with 99.32 high. Currently the pair is trading 1.2857 intraday with expectations of additional declines, but the pair should withhold the bullish trend unless GBP/USD breaks the 1.27 handle.

On the other hand, PM May has launched an extraordinary attack on Brussels, accusing European Union politicians and officials of seeking to disrupt the general election and willing Brexit to fail in a combative address delivered from Downing Street.

Speaking after returning from Buckingham Palace to inform the Queen that parliament had been dissolved for the 8 June poll, May delivered an unexpectedly antagonistic speech, urging voters to “give me your backing to fight for Britain”.

UK is set to release local Services PMI today along with U.S Unemployment claims which will give a better outlook on how the pair will perform the coming hours.

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - Services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

2- USD - Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - NFP - Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2966, R2 1.3071, R3 1.3176

Support levels: S1 1.2774, S2 1.2678, S3 1.2578

Comment: The pair remains bullish with choppy sideways trading taking into consideration current strong U.S Dollar status. Dips should fight S1 level. Closing above 1.2760 is positive. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R1 level projects further bullish waves towards R2 level. The pair to be considered bearish if market closed below S2 level.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

How Will The French Presidential Election Affect Forex Market?

Time is ticking, French Presidential Election is knocking on doors and this Sunday, French citizens will have the upper hand as they will decide the EU coming future. For once and for all, Frexit will either re-surface or lay to rest depending on the final outcome this Sunday, May 7th 2017. Bare in mind, whoever wins, there will be consequences on the financial market in general, but EURO will take center stage.

Two candidates ( Macron and Le Pen ) has qualified for the final round, and latest polls indicates that Macron is ahead by 60% and Le Pen is behind by 40% taking into consideration that Fillon who came third in the first round has requested his supporters to add their voices to Macron, and Melenchon as left-wing voters are committed to prevent Le Pen from claiming the rein. But that's election, and nothing is guaranteed, and if we go back a bit in history to U.S elections, polls gave Clinton the priority, and market saw Trump triumph as shocking. So below, we will place the possible scenario and the outcomes despite what polls are signaling and indicating although their is one major difference, the gap poll between Macron and Le Pen is way wider than the gap poll that was between Clinton and Trump.

Scenario one ( Macron Winning the French Election):

Market is already priced in on the fact Macron is winning, and during the first round, as Macron was heading the polls, EURO gaped upward, hitting five months highs, and if Macron is officially declared a president, optimism will increase further more pushing EURO to higher levels with 1.10 or 1.11 as target. Macron calls for a sharper Pro-EU tone and sees EU as a whole nation, which should push EU stocks and CAC40 even higher. On the other hand, Gold gapped downward and later on fell by $30 as political tension seemed to fade away.

Scenario two ( Le Pen winning the French Election ):

Before we discuss what will happen to the market, first lets briefly state what Le Pen stands for. Le Pen represent the total opposite of Macron and sees France as an independent nation, calling for a referendum by French citizens to vote for a departure from European Cartel following the path of UK voting for Brexit. We all remember what happened on Brexit and how the EURO and British Pound was on a roller coaster. If Le Pen was declared winner, then fear will creep into minds and gossips about Frexit will be on the French menu. Take at that, EURO will start the process of depreciating gradually with 1.600 and 1.500 as target as early signs. The more Frexit approaches and becomes a reality, markets could witness even lower levels than 1.500. European stocks will plunge as well CAC40, and the biggest winner will be gold as geopolitics play its role in pushing the yellow metal into higher levels for 2017, being a sacred haven substitute.

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen crossed the wires last minutes today, via Reuters, noting that Italy would welcome her efforts to renegotiate the Euro, in case she wins the election.

The below fourth and fifth scenarios are less likely to happen, but part of analysis, it's our duty to include all possible outcomes.

Scenario Three: It's never about who wins:

It's never about who wins despite the fact Le Pen or Macron being victorious. The fact the France has a new president will push EURO higher. During U.S elections, market and analysts were divided with different opinions on how will the market perform and will happen to U.S Dollar taking into consideration what Clinton and Trump, each of them stand for. The fact there was a president in the oval office boosted U.S Dollar and American Stocks rallied, add to that, Dow Jones hit news records. Taking at this, we could see a possible scenario on the short run, but as time narrows down with each president agendas (long run), we will see how EURO and EU Stocks will perform depending on impact level of each president agenda.

Scenario Four: Market is already Priced in that Macron is a Winner:

This is the least possible scenario. Market has placed its bets that Macron is a winner, and has traded on this fact. The optimism is expired, EURO and EU Stocks has already peeked as if France is staying in the EU, so it will bring nothing new to traders mind. EUR and EU Stocks will stay put and even make a minor correction upward or downward. Later economic data will shape up the Forex market including EURO, EU Stcoks, and CAC40, depending on the outcome (Economic Data) as part of ebb and flow between currencies.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Inclines As U.S Dollar Declines, Eyes on U.S Data

EUR/USD extended the bullish momentum for the eleven consecutive sessions and prolonged the intensity tone facing crisp U.S Dollar. Yesterday the pair rallied +113-pips with 1.0987 high and added 3-pips to clock 1.0990 2017-fresh-highs, surpassing 5-EMA (D1) at 1.0941. U.S Data yesterday was positive which gave a lift to U.S Index up to 99.33 high, but the Index was tackled by Republicans as they voted a green light on Trump's health-care-bill which was opposed by Democrats, leaving the market divided. As a result, U.S index re-collapsed at 98.54 low, and EUR Index was seen out performing with a 2017 new record 89.07.

The pair is still energized by coming French Presidential Elections this Sunday, May 7th, and as polls supports Macron (Pro EU) 60%, and Le Pen (Anti EU) 40%, which should boost the pair further during the coming hours.

Today, U.S Data is loaded, but the main focus will be on NFP, Non-Farm Payrolls, followed by Yellen speech at night. Yesterday positive data, added to today's coming data will set the tone for Mrs. Yellen with expectations of a hawkish tone taking into consideration how U.S data performed yesterday and will today, with efforts to boost U.S Index levels higher. Market has seen Trump favoring a lower U.S Dollar, and the fact that Trump and U.S Feds are not in accord grows clearer as events occurs.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance Levels: R1 1.1002, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1143, R4 1.1205

Support levels: S1 1.0933, S2 1.0859, S3 1.0818, S4 1.0738

Comment: The pair remains bullish with sideways trading. U.S Data today will make a minor correction either positive or negative depending on the outcome. The market pattern gives bull signals for the start of a larger advance. Current congestion over the previous Monday's gap reinforces the upturn and provides a staging level to launch fresh rallies. A breakout over congestion targets a drive to 1.1068 as well as potentially higher. A close under 1.0818 is needed to reject the upturn.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Recovers Temporary Ahead of U.S Data Release

Gold showed weak recovery symptoms in today trading sessions with a 1235 high, after plunging to 1225.74 low yesterday, but still remains bearish. Yesterday, U.S economic data was positive which added more weight to gold's bearish forces, but the decline journey was postponed as U.S Republicans voted a yay on Trump's health-care-bill, replacing Obamacare, and Democrats were repelled by such move. As a result, U.S Dollar shed $0.79 and U.S Index plunged to 98.54 low, giving XAUSUD a chance to take a breath. Gold currently trading 1233 intraday, slightly below 200 EMA (D1) at 1237 which to be considered a critical level.


U.S Economic Data today will have a major contribution to gold levels, with NFP in focus, and Yellen (Head Of U.S Fed) will cross wire afterwards and the most preferable scenario is that FOMC members along with Yellen will guard U.S Dollar from further declines supported by yesterday's positive data, along with the outcomes of NFP, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, and Unemployment Rate. On the other hand, French Elections this Sunday and tails of uncertainties could provoke gold to peek higher as market sees the precious metal as a sacred haven substitute.

As for physical demand of gold, global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t. The 18% year-on-year decline suffers from the comparison with Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Inflows into ETFs of 109.1t, although solid, were nonetheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows. Slower central bank demand also contributed to the weakness. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t (+9% y-o-y), while demand firmed slightly in both the jewelry and technology sectors. (WGC).

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

3- French Presidential Elections this Sunday all day long.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1237.41, R2 1248.10, R3 1260.22, R4 1278

Support levels : S1 1225.80, S2 1218.23, S3 1208.93, S4 1194.76

Comment: Currently Gold to be considered bearish, but due to U.S Data today and French Elections approaching, we could see high volatility for XAUUSD with choppy sideways destination. A penetration for R1 level projects further bullish waves with R2 level target. Closing above R3 level will shift gold to bullish momentum. The other scenario, in case gold break below S1 level, intensive selloffs with congestion seeing S2&S3 as target.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Gaps Upward For the Second Time As Macron Heads French Elections

EUR/USD gaps upward for second time as French Presidential Elections end with Macron's declared winner, beating Le Pen also for the second as the two candidates fold the final round yesterday. Macron collected almost 65% of French voters, and the candidate with his Pro EU sharp tone, eased worries of EU neighbor nations, and Frexit shall never be spoken off, and FRANCE Shall stay in Euro-zone. As a result the pair gapped +23-pips with 6 months french-highs at 1.1021, with a reminder of hold old levels before Brexit took place.

Although expectations that EUR/USD should have surged higher giving the above fundamentals, the fact that markets saw Macron's triumph as an inevitable taking into consideration the huge gap between him and Le Pen's polls, which have slowed the intensive bullish attack towards higher levels, and when traders receive news as forecasts, usually markets act less severe to the released news. The pair failed to withhold the 1.10 level, currently trading 1.0970 intraday, but sustaining the 1.09 level should keep bulls waves on stand by motion. EURO Index almost touched the 98 level but failed with 3-pips behind at 98.97 high for today. On the other hand, U.S Dollar remains weak as the Index plunged to 98.54 low this morning.

As for economic data that should influence EUR/USD, the pair awaits low impact news with German Factory Orders m/m and Sentix report today, but giving the circumstances, a positive data today will be like pouring gas on fire as the pair just need a slight push for additional rallies. Tomorrow will be more action with German Industrial Production m/m and German Trade balance, followed by French Gov Budget Balance, and On Wednesday, Mr. Draghi, head of ECB will cross wires and it's been clear in recent appearances how Draghi Favors lower EUR/USD, so the speech will be highly anticipated with the possible content.

Fundamentals :

1 - EUR - German Factory Orders m/m today at 6:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - German Industrial Production and Trade Balance tomorrow at 6:00 AM GMT.

4- EUR- French Gov. Budget Balance tomorrow 6:45 AM GMT.

5 EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech on Wednesday at 12:00 PM GMT.

Technical Overview :

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.1027, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1125

Support levels: S1 1.0936, S2 1.0860, S3 1.0778

Comment: The market reminds bullish despite the pair minor retracement. A minor downward correction is expected but staying above S1 level calls for additional rallies. Closing above S2 still remain positive. Dips should fight S1 level, but in case of penetration, S2 will be next destination. Closing below S3 is needed for trend reversal. The other scenario, in case EUR/USD breaks above R1 level, market should expect intensive attacks towards R2, then R3 level.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Aussie Recovers slightly Over Positive Chinese Trade Balance, Eyes on Local Data

AUD/USD extended the bearish momentum for the fifth consecutive session and has been confined within 63-pips price action since Thursday. Last Tuesday, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept Interest Rates at current 1.50%, followed by a press conference headed by Gov. Lowe with a dovish tone, later on Thursday, Australian Trade Balance scored 3.11B with -0.55B deficit, compared to 3.66B on previous sessions. As a result the pair lost 161-pips since Tuesday, after plunging to 0.7385 low today.

Today, the Aussie clocked 0.7424 high, showing some signs of recovery as Chinese Trade Balance scored a wider than expected surplus of CNY 262.3bln vs. Ecp. CNY 197.2bln. China April exports up 14.3% on-year, imports up 18.6% in yuan terms for trade surplus of CNY262.30 billion: (Reuters).

On the other hand, U.S dollar managed to recover +$0.35 with a 98.90 high, adding more pressure on AUD/USD. The pair awaits local data tomorrow with Retails Sales and Annual Budget Release which should bring some new levels for the Aussie and in case U.S Index remains weak, the Aussie has the chance to sharpen its tone with possible profits, and vise versa.

Fundamentals:

1- AUD - Retail Sales tomorrow at 12:30 AM GMT.

2- AUD - Australian Annual Budget Release tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 0.7446, R2 0.7509, R3 0.7585

Support levels: S1 0.7370, S2 0.7330, S3 0.7278

Comment: The pair remains bearish pressured by previous negative local data but tomorrow's data will give a better outlook for the pair trading levels. A penetration for S1 aligned with congestion will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R1 projects further rallies with R2 target. Only a close above R2 is needed to stop bearish forces action and the pair can be considered on the path of shifting trend. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.