Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

NFP Today Is Vital for FOMC's Decision Next Week

Markets are poised ahead of US Non-farm Payrolls and what might come out of it but what makes it vital today is the FOMC meeting next week and its coloration with NFP data today. A positive NFP with strong input would increase the odds of Fed March hike and a negative NFP will decrease next week hike chances. But the main question is, how far will US Fed bare strong US Index levels ?

If NFP is positive today, we expect US Index to break above 102.24 yesterday's high, with target at 103. A Fed rate hike will also peek US Index levels also above 104 level with additional bullish waves in the coming weeks as a reasonable market consequences.

If NFP is negative today, US Index will shift to bearish forces with target at 100.65 and extension of further selloffs and wash towards 99.90 level. Chances of March hike will fade gradually but markets are placing 85% odds for a hike next week and anything opposite to that might create a further congestion and US Index will suffocate at 97 level.

The main key in order to know how US Fed will play along despite NFP result today, are the levels or the range that the US Fed are seeking for US Index. Analysts from Wells Fargo, expected a gain in non-farm payroll of 210K in February, above the market consensus of 190K. Wednesday's ADP NFP scored strongly 298K which increases NFP odds today being positive.

Previous comments of FOMC's members, supported by Yellen and Trump speeches boosted US Index to enter the 100 to 102 level at which we think is the target that US Fed are looking for. A Positive NFP today will increase US Index levels and unchanged rates by FOMC will make a correction back to current US index levels which supports the odds of an unchanged Fed rates next week although the odds are 85% for an increase.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead of NFP Data

Non-Farm Payrolls for today are talk of the markers and the possible outcome that will impact major currencies and metals. Expectations for a positive NFP are high today which will strengthen US Dollar soaring all rivals in the market.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0629, R2 1.0685, R3 1.0689, R4 1.0717

Support levels : S1 1.0582 , S2 1.0551, S3 1.0522, S4 1.0491

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2213, R2 1.2272, R3 1.2350, R4 1.2430

Support levels : S1 1.2132, S2 1.2087, S3 1.2039, S4 1.1986

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 115.62, R2 116.10, R3 116.46 , R4 116.93

Support levels : S1 114.91, S2 114.27, S3 113.83, S4 112.90

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7540, R2 0.7569, R3 0.7598, R4 0.7632

Support levels : S1 0.7497, S2 0.7471, S3 0.7449, S4 0.7427

USD/CAD

Resistance levels : R1 1.3521, R2 1.3561, R3 1.3615, R4 1.3663

Support levels : S1 1.3461, S2 1.3428, S3 1.3395, S4 1.3360

XAUUSD -- GOLD

Resistance levels : R1 1202.81, R2 1213.0, R3 1221.49, R4 1234.23
Support levels : S1 1195.17, S2 1185.85, S3 1176.91, S4 1165.02

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...alysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools#close

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Surges on Collapsing US Dollar, Awaiting Draghi's Speech

EUR/USD inaugurated early trading sessions with an upward gap +17 pips and added +37 pips to Monday's gains with 1.0714 Feb-8-2017 fresh highs. US Index continued the bearish momentum on Monday with 101.01 low after peeking last week Thursday to 102.24. Markets didn't digest the strong NFP data on friday, scoring 235K compared to Jan 238K although forecasts were 196K. The pair failed to guard the 1.07 level, currently trading 1.0674 intraday.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - Draghi's speech today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 1.0695

Resistance levels : R1 1.0708, R2 1.0742, R3 1.0802

Support levels : S1 1.0656, S2 1.0609, S3 1.0535

Remark : Although the pair has managed to demonstrate strong gains this morning, EUR/USD remains under pressure by strong US Index. Stalling below S1 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R2 level is needed for a short-term-correction and shift to bullish forces. Look forward for Draghi's speech today and what it might hold as content.


For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...alysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools#close

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Diggs lower and US Dollar Inches Higher, Eyes on BOE Rates Decision

GBP/USD has extended the bearish momentum today for the 13 consecutive session and currently digging for a deeper hole other than today's 1.2109 low. Although a clear sky is waving ahead of Sterling given a green light by UK Parliament to PM May to release article 50 not longer than 31 March, another player ( US Dollar ) continues to pressure British Pound today with a 101.52 high and US Index is currently clawing for additional gains. on the other hand, other news is that PM May will reject the Scottish First Minister Sturgeon's demand for a second referendum in the next two years. This was coming from unidentified government sources and reported by The Times.

The main Focus for GBP now is what is coming, between US Fed and BOE interest rate decisions. Forecasts are highly that US Fed are moving along with additional 0.25% hike to current 0.57%, and Bank of England to lo leave interests at current 0.25% which will boost US Dollar, leaving Sterling vulnerable for strong US Index levels and GFP/USD will suffocate with additional declines.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

2- GBP Unemployment Change tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

3- BOE Interest Rates Decision on Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.

4- US Fed Rate decision tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2198, R2 1.2287, R3 1.2355 , R4 1.2436

Support levels : S1 1.2119 , S2 1.2052, S3 1.1984, S4 1.1906

Remark : Economic Calendar is colorful this week with UK and US Data, but the main focus is on BOE & US Fed Rate decisions. Keep an eye on US Index levels as its the main player in the market. A break below S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3&S4 levels. Closing above R2 level projects additional bullish waves and spark R3 level and closing above R4, the cable will shift to bullish trend.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...alysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools#close

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

FOMC Volatility With All Possible Scenarios To Consider

Fundamentals :

Markets, traders, and analysts are anticipating FOMC Rate Decision today with high speculations for a hike, but the question is, will Yellen deliver? FOMC decision will depend on three elements. First element is Employment Rate and last NFP ( February ) result released on Friday with 239K while forecasts 196K, increases the odds for the hike. Also, U.S economy added more jobs than expected whilst the unemployment rate remains near record lows of 4.7%, below policymakers' minimum target.

The second element is inflation, with personal consumption expenditure PCE index score last January 1.9% yearly basis, and PCE excluding food and energy at 1.7%, inflation in U.S has ceiled the 2%, lowest since five years.

The third undetermined element is Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), which will be released today at 12:30 PM GMT, and most indicators and analysts support a positive outcome.

Now we have combined these three elements together, the Fed Rate is almost inevitable with high forecast at 25bps. The question that rings in head right now is, how ill the market react? How far will US Index climb ? Where will USD rival bottom ?

Let's draw the following scenarios and hopefully the image will look brighter.

Scenario one: Forecasts for the hike today is 0.25%, and markets have placed positions and traded on this fact, but does it mean the Fed increase is 25bps ? What if Yellen caught the market off guard and announced a 0.5% hike for current 0.75%? ?Markets would result with higher volatility and U.S index will ride a roller coaster with an incline destination and USD rivals for a decline one. Which means that markets are already priced in for 0.25% hike.

Scenario two: Let's go back in memory for recent market behavior and history. Previous US economic data were positive but we witnessed a negative reaction for US Index levels. Positive NFP and Unemployment Rate, yet the greenback was shortened, which indicates the markets were already priced in for positive outcome, and traders are following " buy the rumor, sell the fact" move " .

Scenario three: It is never about a yes or no for a rate hike. The most important question, or the better question to ask is how many Fed hikes is there ? U.S Feds hinted for three hikes, but will they deliver ? Now the only concern for Yellen and Co. is how to avoid the case of negative reaction for U.S Dollar with a positive decision. The answer dwells in Yellen speech or FOMC statement and how will they approach other possible hikes. US Fed promised two to three hikes in 2017, with first coming today ( March ), the next should be in summer and the last by end of 2017. If U.S Fed want to avoid recent market behavior and dodge a collapse for U.S Dollar, then eyes and ears will be centered on FOMC statement, and a hint of possible hikes with a tiny detail on when for example this summer, this will back up and support U.S Index from rolling as market will have a target to look at and market will make new bets for market anticipation.

The opposite for scenario three, including Yellen previous psychological history leaving details vague and unclear signs of additional hikes will result in collapsing U.S Dollar.

Conclusion: The rate 0.25% is already established and its beyond skepticism. It's not about the hike or not, its about how many hikes and when. Market will not focus on the decision of U.S Fed as much traders will concentrate on FOMC statement. The only solution to back up U.S Dollar is that Yellen will have to halt her ambiguous speech and FOMC must have a clear message and hints about upcoming Fed hikes.

Remark: Look forward for U.S Data today CPI and Retails sales both at 12:30 PM GMT which to be considered vital for FOMC meeting tonight at 6:00 PM GMT.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Plunged Over Concerns of An Increase On U.S Shale Drilling

U.S has finally nailed the bulls eye and managed to plunge oil levels below $50 pb at 47.08 2017-fresh-lows. Today, oil prices managed to make an correction with a gain of $1.71 with 48.79 high, and currently oil is pushing for additional profits, lifted by lifted by a surprise draw-down in U.S. inventories and helped by figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggesting OPEC cuts should push the crude market into deficit in time.

"For those looking for a re-balancing of the oil market the message is that they should be patient, and hold their nerve," the IEA said in its monthly report.

The IEA reported global inventories rising in January for the first time in six months despite OPEC cuts since Jan. 1, but said if OPEC stuck to limits the market should see a deficit of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017.

OPEC's compliance with output cuts remained high even though the group's monthly report indicated a rise in global crude stocks and a production jump from Saudi Arabia, Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday. Goldman said in a research note that market re balancing is still progressing, and it saw demand for oil finally exceeding supply in the second quarter aided by production cuts, despite an expected rise in U.S. shale output.

However, OPEC on Tuesday reported a rise in oil inventories and raised its forecast for production in 2017 from outside the group. It said its biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, increased output in February by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10 million bpd.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is curbing its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1, the first reduction in eight years. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers agreed to cut half as much.

OPEC said in the report oil stocks in industrialized nations rose in January to stand 278 million barrels above the five-year average, of which the surplus in crude was 209 million barrels and the rest refined products.

"Despite the supply adjustment, stocks have continued to rise, not just in the U.S., but also in Europe," OPEC said.

"Nevertheless, prices have undoubtedly been provided a floor by the production accords."

In the report, OPEC pointed to an increase in its members' compliance with the deal, according to figures from secondary sources that OPEC uses to monitor output.

Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the accord - all except Libya and Nigeria - fell to 29.681 million bpd last month, according to these figures.

That means OPEC has complied by more than 100 percent with its plan to lower output for those nations to 29.804 million bpd, according to a Reuters calculation. OPEC gave no compliance figure in the report.

But the report revised up its estimate of oil supply from producers outside OPEC this year, as higher oil prices following the supply cut help spur a revival in U.S. shale drilling. ( Reuters )

Production outside OPEC is now expected to rise by 400,000 bpd, 160,000 more than previously thought. U.S. oil output in 2017 was revised up by 100,000 bpd.

Finally with the significant down-drawn in U.S shale and forecasts for U.S inventories today is 3.3M compared with previous week 8.2M, we are looking for an ascending increase for oil price.

Remark : Look forward of U.S Curde Inventories today at 2:30 PM GMT.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Markets and analysts have placed more than 90% for a 0.25% hike in FOMC meeting which should boost U.S Dollar and soar all rivals. In all cases, whether Yellen deliver what market is anticipating or FOMC disappoints traders, expectation of a high volatility is inevitable. Below are support and resistance for Forex majors and XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0640, R2 1.0678, R3 1.0711, R4 1.0748

Support levels : S1 1.0600 , S2 1.0566 , S3 1.0537, S4 1.500

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2198, R2 1.2287, R3 1.2355 , R4 1.2436

Support levels : S1 1.2119 , S2 1.2052, S3 1.1984, S4 1.1906

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 115.17, R2 115.59, R3 116.04, R4 116.49

Support levels : S1 114.44, S2 113.90, S3 113.41, S4 112.84

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7609, R2 0.7649, R3 0.7690, R4 0.7721

Support levels : S1 0.7540, S2 0.7498, S3 0.7456, 0.7419

XAUUSD or Gold

Resistance levels : R1 1211.21 , R2 1222.69, R3 1233.67, 1244.95

Support levels : S1 1195.79 , S2 1186.12, S3 1176.85, S4 1165.57

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Remains Bullish Despite Collapsing U.S Dollar, Awaiting Kuroda's Speech

USD/JPY managed to nail -171 pips after clocking a high yesterday 114.88 despite U.S Fed hike +0.25%. Traders anticipated the Fed hike with 95% chance of happening, as a result, markets were already trading on that fact and trades were set in a position, leaving FOMC meeting meaningless as the news itself was consumed. As a result, U.S Index shed -$1.35 since yesterday with a 100.22 March-fresh-lows.

On the other hand, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged at current -.010% and maintained 10-year JGB yield target around 0%. BOJ also kept central bank assessment unchanged too. Now, analysts are awaiting Koruda's speech and his take on yield curve target with possible change in the coming time. A steeper yield curve helps improve banking sector profitability, however, this could lead to Yen strength and tackle the exports driven economic growth.

Fundamentals :

1- JPY Kuroda speech today tentative.

2- USD Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 113.81

Resistance levels : R1 113.72, R2 114.27, R3 115.09

Support levels : S1 113.12, S2 112.56, S3 111.90

Remark : Look forward for Kurod's Speech and U.S data today which will give new perspectives for the pair. A penetration for R1 level will set a course for erasing yesterday's losses with R3 as a target. Stalling below S2 level will spark additional bearish candles and selloffs with S2&S3 levels. Closing below S2 level is needed for trend reversal.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Rallies With Fury Ahead of U.S Employment Data

XAUAUD surged yesterday from 1197.45 low, added additional gains in today's trading sessions with 1228.76 high with expectations of further bullish attacks. Although FOMC meeting was concluded with a hike 0.25% to initial 0.75%, market reacted inversely and greenback was shortened -$1.35 given the fact that Yellen awaited announcement was already expired and consumed by the market. Today, Gold awaits U.S data with volatile economic news awaiting further movement in the market.

Fundamentals :

1- USD Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD Building Permits today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 1206.33

Resistance level : R1 1230.85, R2 1239.31, R3 1249.79

Support levels : S1 1217.15, S2 1206.67, S3 1196.19

Remark : Gold has shifted bullish but U.S data to be considered. Keep an eye on U.S index levels. Closing above R1 level projects further attacks towards R2&R3 with a reminder of previous rallies. Stalling below S1 level signals short term down trend correction towards S2 level and below it, gold to be considered bearish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Peeks on Weaker US Dollar, Eyes on Local Data

GBP/USD surged +165 pips yesterday, erasing this week losses with 1.2309 high. UK Parliament gave PM Theresa May to release article 50 for final step of EU disposal. In addition to that May rejected the Scottish First Minister Sturgeon's demand for a second referendum in the next two years. Although U.S Index is currently vulnerable with with 102.22 low today, GBP still remains under greenback mercy giving the uncertainties revolving around UK.

Markets are awaiting UK local data with Monetary Policy statement in focus giving that BOE Interest Rate Decision is already settled on forecasts 0.25%.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes today at 12:00 PM GMT.

2- GBP Monetary Policy Summary today at 12:00 PM GMT.

3- GBP BOE Interest Rate Decision today at 12:00 PM GMT.

4- USD Unemployment Rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2321, R2 1.2385, R3 1.2444

Support levels : S1 1.2248, S2 1.2190, S2 1.2122

Remark : Look forward for UK and U.S Data today. Stalling below S1 will create congestion with selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 level. Closing above R3 level is needed for the pair to shift bullish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.