Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

The New Zealand Dollar has tended to strengthen this week.

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair rose after the US released employment data showing that Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 57k in June—well below the market expectation of 110k. The May figure was revised down to 129k from the previous 179k. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5% from 61.8%. Annual wage growth, measured by average hourly earnings, rose slightly to 3.5%, in line with expectations.

The New Zealand Dollar strengthened following the disappointing US employment data. NZD/USD climbed from a low of 0.56664 to a high of 0.57168. According to FXOpen price charts, NZD/USD hit a low of 0.56263 on June 26; the price subsequently rebounded, forming a bullish candle on the weekly timeframe as of this writing. NZD/USD has tended to form higher lows over five consecutive days, reflecting a robust rebound.

The US Department of Labor released the NFP data on Thursday, July 2, because the US was observing Independence Day on Friday; consequently, market volume was expected to be lower during Friday's New York session. With no new US data forthcoming, the market has shifted its focus entirely to the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on July 8.

NZD/USD is currently benefiting from a tailwind that supports the continuation of its technical rebound, as yesterday's NFP data weakened the USD. Following the NFP release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 100.558 from 101.800. From a technical standpoint, the DXY remains above the 100 level, leading some analysts to maintain that the US Dollar Index remains strong. Markets are scaling back expectations for near-term policy tightening by the Fed, causing the US dollar to lose some of its support.

The current drop in oil prices exerts two opposing influences on the NZD. Lower oil prices reduce global inflationary pressure, thereby dampening expectations that the RBNZ will raise interest rates—a factor that would otherwise support an NZD rise.

On the other hand, the decline in oil prices—driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and the normalization of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz—typically boosts investor appetite for risk assets, including commodity currencies like the NZD.

The forecast for NZD/USD movement today places the pair within a reasonable range of 0.56000–0.57000. Immediate support lies around 0.56400, with the next target in the 0.56000 range. Immediate resistance is around 0.56850, with the next target in the 0.57000 range. This forecast could be wrong.

NZD/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, the New Zealand Dollar is currently trading below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period Moving Average lies below the upper band, forming a descending channel; the price trading well below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period Moving Average sits below the 50-period Moving Average, forming a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 28; the 22-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 42 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 40, showing an upward trajectory as it crosses the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 33 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is trading below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period Moving Average lies below the middle band, forming a gently sloping descending channel; however, the price trading above this line indicates an uptrend. The 200-period Moving Average sits well above the upper band, forming a slight descending channel, which indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and the VB Low reads 26; the 43-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 47 with an upward trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 65 with a gently sloping upward trajectory, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 64 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold stages a solid rebound following weaker-than-expected US employment data

Gold prices staged a solid rebound late last week after facing downward pressure over the preceding weeks. This recovery was driven by US employment data (NFP) that came in well below expectations.

Gold prices rose to the $4,195 level on the FXOpen chart, moving away from the low of $3,942 recorded in late June. Gold formed bullish candles for three consecutive days and successfully broke above the middle band line, although it remains technically below the 50-day moving average.

The NFP data released last Thursday showed US job growth of only around 57k, far below the market expectation of 110k. This marked the lowest growth rate in four months.

Before the NFP release, the market was highly confident that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would raise interest rates in September to curb inflation, which stood at 4.2%; the probability of a rate hike was estimated at around 66%–67%. However, following the release of this weak employment data, the probability of a rate hike plummeted to the 50% range.

Consequently, the US Dollar fell sharply; the US Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback's performance against six major currencies—dropped approximately 0.52% to settle at 100.878.

This week, traders will be awaiting and analyzing the FOMC minutes, while also looking ahead to the US inflation report due on July 14. Other data points drawing attention include the ISM Services PMI and Initial Jobless Claims, which are projected to rise to 219k from the previous 215k.

Progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran, alongside the restoration of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, had briefly weighed on oil prices and eased short-term inflation concerns. However, a drop in US bond yields—driven by Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data—became the primary catalyst propelling gold prices back into the $4,170–$4,176 range ahead of this week's market opening. Fundamentally, the short-term outlook for gold has turned positive due to a cooling of the US central bank's hawkish stance.

Technically, gold has just broken a monthly downtrend after forming a bullish divergence on momentum indicators and breaking out of a wedge pattern structure on lower timeframes.

Gold prices are projected to trade within a reasonable range of $4,096–$4,254. Immediate support lies around $4,157, with the next target at $4,114. Immediate resistance is around $4,202, with the next target at $4,254. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, gold price movement is situated above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average, positioned above the upper band, traces an upward channel; however, the price is well below this line, signaling a downtrend. The 200-period moving average, located just below the upper band, traces a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 48, while the VB Low reads 29. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 37 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 45, showing an upward trajectory as it crosses above the TSL and MBL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 37 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the gold price is positioned below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands depict an upward channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average, located below the middle band, traces a flat channel; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-period moving average, positioned well above the upper band, traces a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, while the VB Low reads 33. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 49 with an upward trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 64, showing a flat trajectory as it crosses below the TSL, indicating that the uptrend is fading into a sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 63 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY is trading at multi-year highs around the 217.159 level.

The GBP/JPY cross-rate exhibited compelling movement during yesterday's trading session. The pair surged, trading near multi-year highs in the 216.00–217.00 range. According to FXOpen charts, the price rose from a low of 214.988 to a high of 217.159, closing at 217.027; the upward movement formed a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no wicks.

GBP/JPY price dynamics are driven by several key fundamental factors. The appeal of the carry trade for this pair remains strong. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.00%—the highest level since 1995—the interest rate differential with the UK remains substantial. The Bank of England (BoE) is currently maintaining rates at 3.75%. This spread of approximately 275 basis points continues to fuel carry trade activity—borrowing low-yielding Yen to purchase the higher-yielding Pound Sterling—thereby putting downward pressure on the JPY.

The JPY briefly touched new lows against major currencies, sparking intense speculation that Japan's Ministry of Finance and the BoJ could intervene directly in the market at any moment to boost the Yen. Last week's trading saw a sudden, sharp drop from the 216.08 area, suspected to be the result of market intervention. This speculation acts as the primary check preventing GBP/JPY from surging uncontrollably higher.

The new UK government's commitment to a tight policy stance has provided positive sentiment for the GBP, making it resilient against weaker currencies like the JPY.

The Pound Sterling remains supported by expectations that BoE interest rates will stay relatively high, as inflation has not yet fully subsided. Conversely, the JPY remains under pressure as carry trade strategies continue to drive GBP/JPY higher. The only factor keeping the market cautious is the potential for Japanese government intervention should the Yen's depreciation go too far. Today, market participants are also monitoring Japanese economic data and comments from central bank officials, which could trigger volatility.

From both technical and fundamental perspectives, the broader trend for GBPJPY remains bullish; however, the risk of sudden intervention creates a high probability of two-way volatility.

GBPJPY is expected to trade within a range of approximately 215.30–218.00. Immediate support lies around 216.00, with the next target at 215.00. Immediate resistance is near 217.30, with the next target at 218.00. A move into this area could easily trigger profit-taking or sudden intervention by Japanese authorities. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY is positioned near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with widening bands, indicating range-bound movement and increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits below the middle band, forming a flat channel; with the price well above this line, an uptrend is indicated. The 200-period moving average lies well below the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 64 and the VB Low reads 42; the 22-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with an upward slope, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 66 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend approaching overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line reads 60 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY price action is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with widening bands, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel; with the price well above this line, a strong uptrend is indicated. The 200-period moving average lies just below the lower band, forming a slightly upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 77 and the VB Low reads 51; the 26-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 64 with an upward slope, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 71 with a downward-curving slope, indicating a fading uptrend while remaining in overbought territory.

The Trade Signal Line reads 68 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

New Zealand Dollar Weakens Ahead of Interest Rate Decision

The New Zealand Dollar weakened during Tuesday's trading session. The NZD/USD pair slid from a high of 0.67065 to a low around 0.56722. This decline coincided with renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which boosted demand for the US Dollar. On the FXOpen chart, NZD/USD is currently trading around the 0.56776 level. Markets are now awaiting the RBNZ's upcoming interest rate decision.

The RBNZ's current interest rate stands at 2.25%. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ committee was split 3-3, with Governor Anna Breman ultimately casting the deciding vote to keep rates unchanged. Although the market anticipates a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% to curb inflation driven by the Middle East conflict, major institutions like Westpac project that the RBNZ will hold rates at 2.25%.

This downward revision in rate hike expectations was triggered by a drop in global energy commodity prices following a US-Iran diplomatic agreement, as well as a 10% decline in the ANZ Commodity Price Index for June. New Zealand's economy is also considered fragile, facing the risk of a domestic recession. If the RBNZ adopts a dovish or less aggressive stance, the NZD could face further downward pressure.

On the US Dollar front, the US Dollar Index had weakened after June's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data fell significantly short of expectations, causing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to drop to around 52%. However, this USD weakness was contained because the currency maintains a yield advantage—with the Fed's year-end target around 3.8%—compared to the RBNZ's lower rates. Additionally, the market is awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for clues regarding the Fed's future policy direction.

Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have once again boosted demand for the USD. According to Bloomberg, citing a U.S. official, Iran fired at least two missiles at a commercial vessel traversing the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening. This escalation in tension drove safe-haven flows and strengthened the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, rose 0.25% to 101.115 from 100.803.

Meanwhile, lower oil prices have eased inflationary pressure. This decline in oil prices has been driven by increased production from OPEC and its allies, as well as a US-Iran peace agreement.

Structurally, the NZD/USD remains in a downtrend. A wide interest rate differential with the US leaves the NZD vulnerable to "carry trade unwind" selling, unless the RBNZ surprises the market by raising interest rates today accompanied by a highly hawkish statement.

Technically, the NZD/USD is trading below the middle band, while the price sits well below the 50-day moving average, confirming persistent downward pressure. The pair is expected to trade within the 0.56500–0.57300 range. Immediate support lies around 0.56700, with the next target at 0.56500. Immediate resistance is around 0.56850, with the next target near 0.57300. This forecast could be wrong.

NZD/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD price action is situated below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average lies below the upper band, with the price well below the line, signaling a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average sits just below the 50-day moving average, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 27; the 28-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 41 with a descending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 37 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a shift toward a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 38 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the New Zealand Dollar is currently trading near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with relatively narrow spacing, indicating sideways movement and lower volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits just below the lower band, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement. The 200-period moving average lies well above the upper band, forming a descending channel that indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 44; the 27-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 57 with an ascending channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 41 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 48 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY surges amid Yen weakness

The EUR/JPY cross-rate is displaying interesting price dynamics. It is a highly liquid and volatile pair, capable of significant pip movements. EUR/JPY often serves as a leading indicator for global stock markets, with peak volatility occurring when the Tokyo and London trading sessions overlap.

Yesterday, EUR/JPY trended upward, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no wicks. The price rose from a low of 104.601 to a high of 185.706; it currently stands at 185.626 on the FXOpen chart. EUR/JPY's movement is in an intriguing phase, influenced by structural changes in Japan and a generally defensive European monetary policy.

The Japanese Yen recently hit a 40-year low, yet the Japanese bond market is experiencing turbulence. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised interest rates to 1.00%. This tightening measure—combined with market concerns regarding the Japanese government's $2 trillion long-term spending plan—has pushed the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to 2.87%, the highest level since 1996.

Markets are beginning to anticipate that the era of cheap currency in Japan is truly over. Speculation that the BoJ must act aggressively to curb inflation and stabilize the currency is providing a floor of support, preventing the JPY from falling further.

Meanwhile, the Euro has remained relatively stable, though its movement against other major currencies has been somewhat limited. Market focus is currently on regional economic data releases, with few major catalysts expected this week. Interest rates that remain relatively higher than Japan's sustain the appeal of the "carry trade," a key factor enabling EUR/JPY to hold above the 185.00 level.

The FOMC minutes have been released with an overall hawkish tone; the majority of Fed members agreed to drop signals indicating an imminent interest rate cut. The Fed views inflation as remaining highly persistent; notably, they cite new drivers such as surging energy demand, AI-related infrastructure needs, and geopolitical tensions. The biggest surprise was the statement that policymakers are prepared to raise interest rates again should inflation prove stubborn or spike.

The Fed's hawkish signal could prompt global investors to take profits on carry trade positions, thereby exerting downward pressure on EURJPY, as the Yen is frequently sought after as a safe-haven asset.

Technically, EURJPY is currently trading above its 50-day moving average. The pair is expected to trade within a range of approximately 184.20–186.20. Immediate support lies around 184.80, with the next target at 184.20. Immediate resistance is near 185.80, with the next target around 186.20. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

The price is currently situated between the middle and upper Bollinger bands. The bands form a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range-bound movement with high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies just above the middle band, forming a flat channel; the price trading above this line indicates an upward trend. The 200-period moving average sits well below the lower band, forming an ascending channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 60, and the VB Low reads 39; the 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 50 with a flat channel, indicating a neutral stance for the EURJPY pair.

The RSI Price Line reads 55 with an ascending channel, indicating an upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with a channel that is rising but flattening, indicating sideways movement.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the EURJPY price is trading below the upper Bollinger band. The bands form an ascending channel with narrowing spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies below the middle band, forming an ascending channel; the price trading well above this line indicates an upward trend. The 200-period moving average sits just below the middle band, forming a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 65 and the VB Low reads 40; the 25-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with a flat channel, indicating that bullish sentiment outweighs bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line reads 62 with a channel that is rising but flattening, indicating a fading upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 59 with an ascending channel, indicating an upward trend.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices rebound following the post-FOMC minutes decline.

Silver price movements remain volatile. Prices initially dipped to around $57.211 following the FOMC release before recovering to a high near $60.610. Currently, the FXOpen chart shows silver at $59.898, forming a bullish candle with a body size nearly identical to the previous one.

Silver's price is currently driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations regarding US central bank monetary policy. Prices are under pressure from conflicting macroeconomic sentiments.

Recent FOMC meeting minutes have fueled speculation that the Fed might raise benchmark interest rates during the remainder of 2026 due to the risk of resurging inflation. Higher projected interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver by increasing opportunity costs.

Meanwhile, regarding geopolitical risks, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East sparked concerns about energy-driven inflation resulting from rising oil prices. On one hand, these tensions strengthened the US Dollar Index—the most liquid safe-haven asset—thereby pressuring commodity prices. On the other hand, these tensions limited further declines in silver prices, as silver also functions as a long-term hedge.

The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) currently sits around 67:1, a relatively neutral yet constructive level for silver within the medium-term cycle. Additionally, projected growth in industrial demand for silver throughout 2026 acts as a strong fundamental buffer, helping to prevent a massive price collapse.

From a technical perspective, the price appears to be undergoing a consolidation and base-building phase following a corrective trend that began in mid-May.

The current market structure remains trapped within a descending parallel channel below the moving average indicator. Silver price movement is expected to remain within a reasonable range of $58,400–$62,000. Immediate support is around $59,000, with the next target in the $58,400 range. Immediate resistance is around $60,990, with the next target around $62,000. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, silver prices are currently between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands. The bands form a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and sustained high volatility.

The 50-day moving average lies just below the upper band, tracing a descending channel; the price is well below this line, signaling a dominant downtrend. The 200-day moving average sits just below the 50-day MA, tracing a slight ascending channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 49, and VB Low reads 28; the 21-point spread reflects volatility on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 38 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 37 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 39 with an ascending trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, silver price movement is currently near the middle Bollinger Band. The bands form a slight descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and sustained high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies just below the middle band, tracing a flat trajectory; the price sits on the line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-period moving average is positioned well above the upper band, tracing a descending channel, which indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, and VB Low reads 36; the 31-point spread reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 51 with a flat trajectory, implying that bullish weight slightly outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 51 with an ascending channel, crosses the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 44 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices retreated following the end of the truce

The rally in oil prices lost some momentum last Friday. WTI crude prices had climbed to $75.67 amidst escalating hostilities between the US and Iran. However, prices pulled back toward the close of trading, dropping to a low of $70.71, according to FXOpen charts. Reports indicate that the US launched over 170 strikes against Iran within two days. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has become congested again, with hundreds of tankers awaiting clearance to pass.

On Friday, Trump announced that the truce had ended, while Iranian sources dismissed rumors of a new round of talks scheduled for next week. Qatar and Pakistan are attempting to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. The oil market remains highly sensitive following a sharp decline from highs seen in previous months.

US-Iran tensions remain a primary focus for traders. Recent attacks in the Middle East continue to stoke fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for approximately 20% of the global oil supply.

Reports from the US Department of Energy and the EIA show that US commercial oil and fuel product inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, driven by high seasonal demand during the summer driving season. Domestic demand and jet fuel consumption in the US remain robust, serving as a positive factor for oil prices.

In its latest meeting, the OPEC+ alliance decided to begin raising production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. This move, combined with Saudi Arabia's decision to cut official selling prices for Asia, has sparked concerns about a potential global supply glut in the second half of the year. Energy agencies such as the EIA have also noted a general decline in the global crude oil demand outlook for 2026, driven by high fuel prices in the previous quarter and a slowdown in certain non-OECD regions. Market focus this week is centered on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy outlook, as speculation regarding rate hikes or holds could influence the value of the US Dollar.

From a technical perspective, WTI oil prices are trading below the 50-day moving average. The estimated fair price range for oil is between $67 and $76. Immediate support lies around $68.70, with the next target in the $68.00 range. Immediate resistance is near $73.00, with the next target around $76.50. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, WTI crude oil prices are hovering near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands depict a descending channel with narrowing bandwidth, indicating bearish sentiment accompanied by declining volatility.

The 50-day moving average sits just above the price, tracing a gently rising channel. The 200-day moving average lies above the upper band, tracing a descending channel and indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 48, while the VB Low reads 24; the 24-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 38 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 40, with its path curving downward, signaling a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 38 with an upward trajectory, signaling an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, oil prices are positioned between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands show an ascending channel with narrowing bandwidth, indicating bullish sentiment alongside declining volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the lower band, tracing a flat path, with the price remaining above the line—an indication of an uptrend. The 200-period moving average sits well above the upper band, tracing a descending channel and indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 75, while the VB Low reads 37; the 38-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 56 with an upward trajectory, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 47 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 50, with its downward slope beginning to flatten, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY remains within its weekly price range

EUR/JPY price volatility is particularly noteworthy. The EUR/JPY cross tends to move within a weekly range bounded by psychological resistance roughly 186.500 and psychological support near 183.100. Yesterday, EUR/JPY formed a bullish candle with a long upper wick, indicating a price rise that was met with selling pressure near the peak. The price reached a high of 186.467 and a low of 184.278. Currently, the price is 184.867 on the FXOpen chart, hovering around the middle band.

EUR/JPY price movements reflect dynamics driven by key European economic data releases and speculation regarding central bank policies. Today, market focus is centered on the release of the Eurozone's core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The market anticipates that this inflation indicator will be a key determinant of the ECB's next policy move. If the result exceeds expectations—surpassing the previous period's 0.2%—the Euro could receive a bullish boost, as this would reduce the likelihood of aggressive ECB rate cuts in the near term. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the Euro could face downward pressure.

On the Yen side, the currency remains overshadowed by projections regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy at this July meeting. Based on internal reports and market expectations—which assign a 99.1% probability—the BoJ is projected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting. Although the BoJ may raise its economic growth forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, its reluctance to aggressively hike rates before year-end (with analysts predicting a hike no sooner than December) suggests that the JPY's appeal remains structurally weak in the absence of Japanese government intervention.

The interest rate differential with Europe remains a primary factor behind the JPY's weakness. Global sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and movements in bond yields. While fluctuating tensions in the Middle East theoretically provide support for safe-haven currencies like the JPY, the impact has tended to subside in the absence of significant new escalations. The Middle East conflict has contributed to a rise in yields on 10-year US government bonds to the 4.59%–4.62% range; this increase reflects selling pressure in the bond market.

The US-Iran conflict has triggered a surge in global crude oil prices, automatically stoking inflation concerns—a factor that central banks will closely monitor when determining future policy direction. The Federal Reserve is projected to maintain high interest rates for a longer period, or potentially even consider further rate hikes, should inflation spiral out of control.

Japanese government bond yields recently hit a three-decade high, hovering between 2.82% and 2.90%. Beyond inflation concerns, market anxiety has been exacerbated by the Japanese government's long-term roadmap—under the Takaichi administration—which outlines massive public and private investments totaling up to 370 trillion JPY through 2040. This massive spending target has sparked fears of increased government debt issuance.

Technically, EURJPY is trading near its 50-day moving average, which is relatively flat. The projected fair price range for EURJPY is 183.90–185.45. Immediate support lies around 184.40, with the next target at 183.50. Immediate resistance is near 184.85, with the next target at 185.60. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, EURJPY price action is hovering near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with relatively wide spacing, indicating range-bound movement and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average sits near the middle band, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement. The 200-day moving average lies well below the lower band and is trending upward, signaling a bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 60, while the VB Low reads 39; the 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 48 with a flat trajectory, suggesting that bearish sentiment outweighs bullish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line reads 49 and is curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 and is trending upward, also indicating an uptrend.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURJPY price action is moving between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits below the middle band within a flat channel; the price trading below this line indicates a weak downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies above the 50-period MA and forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer timeframe.

The TDI VB High indicator reads 69, while the VB Low reads 37; the 32-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with a downward slope, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, yet there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 44 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 47 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY Rises Over the Last 24 Hours

The GBP/JPY cross has shown interesting price dynamics over the past 24 hours. The pair rose approximately 0.20%, maintaining a medium-term bullish sentiment. The price currently sits around the 217.208 level on the FXOpen chart. A bullish candle formed, extending the previous day's gains, with a low of 216.558 and a high of around 217.399.

UK economic data for the first half of 2026 indicates resilient performance, with GDP growth exceeding the Bank of England's (BoE) initial expectations. Core CPI levels remaining in the 2.6%–2.8% range keep the BoE in a position to maintain a hawkish stance. Market expectations that the BoE will proceed very slowly with interest rate cuts continue to support the GBP's strength.

Regarding the JPY, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate currently stands at 1.00% following the hike last June. Although the BoJ has signaled gradual rate hikes toward the end of the year, the market assigns a 97% probability that the BoJ will hold rates steady at the upcoming July meeting. This has somewhat stifled the JPY rally in the short term.

The interest rate differential between the UK and Japan remains relatively wide. As long as global markets remain in a "risk-on" state, market participants are likely to capitalize on volatility to buy GBP/JPY. However, caution regarding global geopolitical issues remains necessary, as they could trigger a shift toward safe-haven assets at any time.

Technically, the primary bias for GBP/JPY remains moderately bullish, though volatility is expected to be high as the market prepares for central bank meetings at the end of July. The fair price range for today is estimated at 215.80-218.40. Immediate support lies around 216.50, with the next target in the 215.80 range. Immediate resistance is around 217.80, with the next target in the 218.40 range. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY price action is below the upper Bollinger Band line. The Bollinger Bands are forming an upward-sloping channel with widening bands, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average lies below the middle band, tracing a slight upward slope; the price is positioned well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-day moving average sits below the lower band and traces an upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, and the VB Low reads 42; the 24-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 54 with a flat trajectory, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 60 with an upward-curving trajectory, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 62 with a gently rising slope, suggesting sideways movement.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY price action is currently near the middle Bollinger Band line. The Bollinger Bands are forming a flat channel with narrowing bands, indicating range-bound movement and declining volatility.

The H4 moving average lies below the middle band, tracing a slight upward slope; the price is positioned just above the line, signaling a weak uptrend. The 200-period moving average sits well below the lower band, tracing an upward slope, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 72, and the VB Low reads 42; the 30-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 57 with a downward slope, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight but there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 51 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

New Zealand Dollar Strengthens Amid US Dollar Weakness

Price action for the NZD/USD commodity currency pair yesterday demonstrated strong positive momentum for the New Zealand Dollar, driven by a combination of hawkish domestic policy and a weakening US dollar.

NZD/USD extended its gains, reaching a high of 0.58632 according to FXOpen charts. The pair built upon the previous day's rise, hitting its highest level since June 26; the price recorded a high of 0.58632, a low of 0.58058, and a close of 0.58495.

On July 8, the RBNZ unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.50% to curb domestic inflation, which was projected to peak at 3.9% in the second quarter. This move triggered a rise in domestic bond and swap yields, providing strong support for the NZD.

Signals of additional fiscal stimulus from major Asian economies also boosted demand for commodities. As a commodity currency, the NZD benefited significantly from this improvement in global risk appetite.

US CPI data released on July 14 showed a sharp decline to 3.5% year-on-year—below the expected 3.8% and down from 4.2% the previous month. Core CPI also cooled to 2.4% year-on-year. These figures immediately drove down US bond yields and weakened the USD's appeal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, fell sharply to 100.353 from a previous high of 101.029—its lowest level since June 24.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently concluded his testimony before Congress on July 14–15. Warsh demonstrated a more traditional approach—reminiscent of the Alan Greenspan era—by scaling back forward guidance and avoiding specific commitments regarding the path of interest rate cuts. Uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy direction under new leadership has kept the USD on the defensive, particularly following the release of low CPI data.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a focus for traders. An escalation in the conflict could boost demand for safe-haven assets like the USD, potentially limiting gains for the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD has recovered significantly from monthly lows in the 0.56700–0.58580 range. The pair is expected to trade within the 0.57500–0.59000 range. Immediate support lies around 0.58100, with the next target at 0.57500. Immediate resistance is near 0.58600, with the next target in the 0.59000 range. This forecast could be wrong.

NZD/USD D1

NZD/USD price movement on the daily timeframe shows increasing volatility. The price is positioned outside the upper Bollinger Band; the widening bands reflect bullish sentiment accompanied by rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average (MA) sits below the upper band, tracing a slight downward slope, yet the price remains above the line, indicating that an uptrend dominates. The 200-period MA lies just above the 50-period MA, tracing a flat path and indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 59, and the VB Low reads 26; the 33-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 43 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 66 with an upward slope, having crossed the MBL from below, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with an upward slope, having crossed the MBL from below, signaling an uptrend.

NZD/USD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the "Kiwi" is currently positioned just below the upper Bollinger Band. The bands are tracing an upward path and widening, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period MA sits above the lower band, tracing an upward slope; the price is well above this line, indicating strong upward momentum. The 200-period MA lies below the middle band, tracing a slight downward slope, which indicates weakening bearish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 77, and the VB Low reads 54; the 23-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 66 with an upward slope, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 71 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend within overbought territory.

The Trade Signal Line reads 69 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.