Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Canadian Dollar Weakens, Market Anticipates US and Canadian Employment Data

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair exhibited high volatility, with current market sentiment tending toward moderate bullishness. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.39250 in mid-April 2026. The current price is around 1.39104 on the FXOpen chart, with the candlestick showing a bullish pattern with few shadows at the top and bottom of the candle.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the Canadian economic slowdown and growing concerns of a technical recession. Growth and investment data remain weak, so the market is holding back expectations for BoC policy tightening. Oil prices fluctuated and briefly fell sharply. As Canada is a major oil exporter, the decline in oil prices contributed to the CAD's weakening.

Today, the market is anticipating major news. Some are suggesting that today will be a Super Friday, with employment data from both neighboring countries released simultaneously.

The market anticipates a cooling in the US labor sector after the strong performance of the previous month. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to grow by 85,000-102,000 jobs, down from last month's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%-4.4%. If the NFP is above 150,000, it will reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Fed to hold interest rates high for longer, keeping the USD strong. Conversely, if it is below 70,000, expectations of an interest rate cut will increase and put pressure on the USD.

Canada will also release employment data at the same time. Markets expect employment to recover slightly by around 8,000-10,000 jobs after falling to minus 18,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates at 2.25%. If Canadian employment data is poor, pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at its next meeting will intensify, which could weaken the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomically, USD/CAD is currently experiencing moderate bullish sentiment due to renewed market concerns about US trade tariffs, which are pressuring commodity currencies like the CAD. Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), approaching the 100-point mark, has limited the CAD's room for movement.

Technically, USDCAD is moving strongly above its 50-day moving average (MA), confirming a short- to medium-term bullish bias on the daily chart structure. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.38300-1.39600. Immediate support is around 1.38700, with the next target around 1.38500. Immediate resistance is around 1.39400, with the next resistance target around 1.39800. This forecast could be incorrect.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 71 with an ascending channel, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 40. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 71 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Market volatility, WTI oil prices fall to around 88.75

The oil market is showing signs of a highly volatile consolidation phase, with prices likely to hover in the $90-$100 per barrel range amid a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and projections of future oversupply. At the end of the week, the XTIUSD price drew two consecutive bearish candles, bouncing near the 50-day moving average (MA). The closing price reached 88.74 at FXOpen, down from the previous high of $93.81.

The current bullish factor for the XTIUSD pair is tensions over the Strait of Hormuz in the US-Iran war. The geopolitical conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran since the beginning of the year has remained the main driver of high oil prices. Peace talks or negotiations on trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz have so far failed to produce concrete progress toward truly securing it. This issue keeps the risk premium high in the energy market.

Despite the US's commitment to releasing strategic oil reserves, domestic US refineries are operating at a very high rate, approaching 955% of their capacity. This has accelerated stock absorption and held prices back from rising sharply.

A bearish factor for the XTIUSD pair is that crude oil imports from China have reportedly declined significantly compared to the initial period before the conflict broke out. The lack of purchasing power from the world's largest energy consumer acts as a heavy anchor, preventing oil prices from rising higher beyond the $100 level.

Global financial institutions such as JP Morgan project that, structurally, global oil supply for the remainder of 2026 could potentially exceed demand growth. If geopolitical tensions suddenly subside, this supply fundamental is predicted to gradually push oil prices back to lower levels.

Goldman Sachs reports weakening global oil demand, particularly from China and Europe, which is also contributing as a bearish factor. The market is also considering the possibility of a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could reduce the geopolitical risk premium. OPEC+ recently agreed to increase production quotas for July, which could potentially increase supply if export constraints begin to ease.

Technically and based on daily sentiment, XTIUSD is expected to move within a wide consolidation range today as the market awaits new macro data catalysts such as the US inflation rate, CPI, and next week's FOMC meeting. US Crude Oil prices are expected to move within a daily range of $87 to $100. Nearest support is around $89.50, with the next target around $87.50. Nearest resistance is around $93.50, with the next target around $98.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

WTI crude oil prices on the daily timeframe are moving between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel that slightly curves downward, indicating range-bound movement with a slight bearish bias.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a flat channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 40. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 44 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a sloping channel, indicating sideways movement.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil prices are moving near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and still high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is between the middle and lower bands, drawing a horizontal channel. The price is below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is near the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 65, and its VB Low is pointing at 34. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base line is pointing at 50, drawing an upward channel, indicating the price is on a neutral path with potential for upward movement.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 37 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold is under bearish pressure due to recent fundamental changes.

Gold prices have experienced significant pressure, causing them to correct downwards to $4,258 before rebounding to around $4,327 on the FXOpen chart. The main factors weighing on gold prices are currently dominated by the release of US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions.

The release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data last Friday showed a very solid labor market. This has fueled concerns that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate by the end of 2026 or at least maintain high interest rates for longer. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has become less attractive compared to the US dollar and bonds.

The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.50% as bond yields and a stronger dollar raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, triggering a massive sell-off that erased all of gold's annual gains since early 2026.

Safe-haven sentiment in gold weakened somewhat following President Trump's statement that a peace deal with Iran was close and his call to prevent tensions in Lebanon from escalating. The decline in crude oil prices also eased short-term inflation concerns, reducing gold's appeal as a hedge.

Today's economic calendar is light on high-impact news, with only the NFIB business optimism index and a 3-year US Treasury auction. The market's primary focus will be on Wednesday, June 10th, when US CPI data is released. The market is expected to consolidate today before the inflation data is released.

Technically, the daily gold market structure has shifted to a significant bearish bias after the price broke below the 200-day moving average, which is around $4,380-$4,512. This breakout of the $4400 level confirms full short-term control by sellers.

The gold price consolidation range today is estimated to be between $4280 and $4376. The nearest support is around $4318, with the next target around $4280. The nearest resistance is around $4350, with the next target around $4376. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a descending channel with fairly wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a horizontal channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 51, and its VB Low is pointing at 34. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 42 within a descending channel, indicating that bears are more heavily weighted than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 33 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 39 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently below the middle band. The expanding Bollinger Bands, with the upper and lower bands moving apart, indicate increased market volatility, which is pressuring the gold price.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band represents a descending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band represents a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 56, and its VB Low is at 27. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 41 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 36 with a flattening ascending channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 29 with a flattening descending channel, indicating a weakening downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD bullish sentiment ahead of US and Canadian data releases

The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.39512 on the FXOpen chart after reaching a high of 1.39692. The chart drew a doji candle in this area, which is a resistance zone for the Canadian dollar.

The market is currently awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy meeting. Most economists expect the BoC to maintain interest rates at around 2.25%. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to maintain a relatively tight policy stance.

A bullish factor for the USD/CAD is that the Canadian economy is showing signs of slowing, even entering technical territory, weighing on the Canadian dollar. Speculators' positions on the CAD are increasingly bearish, and the US-Canada interest rate differential remains favorable to the USD. Uncertainty regarding North American trade negotiations is also pressuring the CAD.

A bearish factor for the USD/CAD is high oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Canada is a major oil exporter; rising oil prices tend to support the CAD. Canada's trade balance is improving, and exports are reaching record highs, which are helping to support the CAD.

Today, the market awaits the BoC's interest rate announcement. The Canadian economy experienced an unexpected contraction in the first quarter of 2026. Furthermore, Canadian core inflation slowed to a five-year low. This situation has led to the Bank of Canada (BoC) projecting a looser stance, holding interest rates low at 2.25%.

Conversely, the Fed is maintaining a high interest rate of around 3.75%. The 2-year bond yield differential between Canada and the US widened by around 31 basis points this month, making USD-based assets more attractive to investors who support USDCAD carry trades.

Today, the market will also focus on the upcoming US CPI release. If US inflation figures are higher than expected, the Fed's hawkish sentiment will strengthen, pushing USDCAD higher. If inflation cools, the USD will experience a technical correction and pressure the USDCAD pair downward.

The CAD is highly sensitive to oil prices. WTI fell nearly 4% to $87.48 per barrel after tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eased and shipping lanes were reported to have returned to normal by the US Secretary of Energy. This drop in oil prices removed a major supporter for the CAD, automatically boosting USDCAD.

Fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel a rush for safe-haven assets like the USD. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff rhetoric on social media adds uncertainty to Canada's economic outlook.

Volatility is expected to spike today due to two high-impact news releases from Canada and the US. The price range is estimated at 1.3860-1.4020. Immediate support is around 1.3910, with the next target around 1.3860. Immediate resistance is around 1.3960, with the next resistance target around 1.4020. This forecast could be incorrect.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 77, and the VB Low is pointing at 34. The 43-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 56 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 74 with an ascending channel, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 72 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 76, and its VB Low is at 54. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 65 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD under bearish pressure, awaiting the ECB decision

Today, the EUR/USD pair is expected to move more volatily as the market awaits the ECB meeting results and the market's response to the newly released US inflation data. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to curb Eurozone inflation, which remains at around 3.2%, far above its 2% target.

Currently, EUR/USD is trending under bearish pressure after falling to the psychological level of 1.1500 earlier this week. The current price is around 1.15351 on the FXOpen chart, near the lower band line.

Today, several key fundamental factors are attracting traders' attention. The recent escalation in tensions in the Middle East has investors seeking the USD as a safe-haven. As long as these tensions persist, selling pressure on EUR/USD is projected to continue.

After yesterday's market digested the US CPI data, today's focus will shift to the PPI data, or US producer inflation. The PPI for May is expected to decline to 0.7% from 1.4% previously. However, the PPI YoY is expected to rise to 6.4% from 6.0%. If this data comes out higher than expected, the USD could strengthen further, giving the Fed room to remain hawkish.

Released simultaneously with the PPI, US weekly jobless claims data is expected to come in at 220k. A lower-than-expected figure would underscore the tightness of the US labor market and benefit the USD.

Today's market will also be weighing the ECB's projected move to raise the benchmark Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. Christine Lagarde's decision and press conference will be crucial. If the ECB adopts a hawkish tone and signals further tightening, the Euro could gain strong rebound momentum.

Given the current price consolidation around the 1.15360-1.15450 area after correcting from the 1.16000 level last week, EURUSD is projected to move within the support range of 1.13900 to resistance around 1.17000. Immediate support is around 1.15000, with the next target around 1.14100. Immediate resistance is around 1.16300, with the next resistance target around 1.16900. This forecast could be wrong.

EURUSD D1

The EURUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the lower band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is just below the upper band, drawing a flat channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 57, and the VB Low is pointing at 34. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 46 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 36 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 37 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

EURUSD H4

The EURUSD price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently right at the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a downward channel; the price is slightly below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 52, and its VB Low is at 29. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 41 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 41 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD Consolidates or Ranges Amid Positive GDP Growth

The GBP/USD price movement is experiencing interesting dynamics today. It fell to a low of 1.33245, then rebounded to a high of 1.34330. Currently, GBP/USD is around 1.34196 on the FXOpen chart. The price drew a bullish candle and broke through the middle band line, and a technical correction occurred in this area.

The UK just released crucial macroeconomic data: April's GDP grew 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the consensus estimate of 0.1% and improving from the previous month's minus 0.1%. This stronger monthly GDP data provides a breather for the GBP from short-term sentiment.

Despite strong first-quarter growth, economic institutions such as the CBI and the OECD recently cut their UK economic growth outlook for 2026 to a range of 0.8%-1.1% due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and stagnant real incomes. Therefore, the impact of the GBP surge due to GDP data tends to be tempered by long-term concerns.

The US dollar is moving fairly steadily, with short-term volatility awaiting today's data release and the FOMC meeting in mid-June next week. The market will be anticipating US Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan, which is projected to improve slightly to 46.6 from the previous 44.8. Traders are most wary of one-year and five-year inflation expectations. If US inflation expectations rise again, the USD could strengthen sharply again, as this would reduce the scope for the Fed to cut interest rates.

The DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is currently around 99.691, having reached a high of 100.314. Overall, the DXY is moving above its 50-day moving average (MA), indicating continued strong bullish sentiment.

Technically, on the H4 chart, GBPUSD formed a bullish piercing pattern that pushed the price back up to the upper limit. However, the push above 1.34200 has not yet gained traction or strong follow-up momentum for a true breakout.

The GBPUSD price forecast for today is projected to be within the support range of 1.32700 to resistance at 1.34800. The nearest support is around 1.3320, with the next target around 1.32700. The nearest resistance is around 1.34200, with the next target around 1.34800. This forecast could be incorrect.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair's price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating range movement and slightly narrowing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) directly above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 38. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 48 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the GBPUSD pair showed a strong rebound after the price reached the lower band. The price surged through both the middle and upper band lines in a single candlestick. The Bollinger Bands drew a flat channel with slightly narrowing band spacing, indicating range movement and somewhat reduced volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is directly above the upper band line, forming a descending channel. Prices just above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, forming a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 57, and its VB Low is at 30. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 57, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD: Sentiment Shifts From Bullish to Bearish

Last week, the price of WTI Crude Oil experienced a significant shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. The sharp correction was marked by a price drop to 81.97 and a close at 83.00 at the end of the week, according to the FXOpen chart. Several key factors contributed to this bearish sentiment.

Crude oil prices have experienced significant selling pressure in recent days, plummeting by 5% to a 13-week low. Declining was triggered by reports regarding a draft MoU between the US and Iran. Several points in the draft include:

Opening the Strait of Hormuz: A key issue in the peace draft is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days. This strait was previously blockaded due to the Middle East conflict, which cut global oil supplies by up to 11 million barrels per day.

Relief of oil sanctions: If an agreement is signed in Zurich, sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be suspended. This has the potential to gradually return millions of barrels of crude oil per day to the global market.

Despite recent declines in oil prices, several factors are contributing to high volatility and bullish sentiment. US SPR reserves are currently at their lowest level since 1980. EIA data also shows that a series of previous production cuts have caused global oil inventories to decline by an average of 6.3 million barrels per day this quarter. This acts as a safety net for oil, preventing prices from falling sharply.

The EIA also estimates that global oil consumption will weaken in 2026 due to high energy prices and economic slowdowns in several regions. Today's market is anticipating news regarding the possibility of a US-Iran deal and weaker demand projections. If global oil inventories decline and the risk of supply disruptions increases, this could be a factor in oil prices rising again. Currently, market sentiment is tending towards neutral to bearish as traders begin to take profits after last week's tension-fueled rally.

XTIUSD is estimated to be in a reasonable range of around $81-$87 per barrel today. The nearest support is around $81.50, with the next target around $79. The nearest resistance is around $85, with the next target around $87. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil prices moved near the lower band on the daily timeframe last weekend. The Bollinger Bands drew a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) just above the middle band drew a slightly curved channel to the downside, with prices moving away from the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) was well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High level was 61, and its VB Low level was 37. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line was 49 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line was 38 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line was 42 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil prices were near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 54, and its VB Low is at 30. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 42 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 35 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 35 with a slightly descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY is rising ahead of the BoJ's interest rate announcement

Today, global financial markets are focused on a crucial moment for the USD/JPY currency pair. There is a sharp contrast in monetary policy between the BoJ and the Fed. USD/JPY is currently at a critical level around 160.359 on the FXOpen chart, approaching its previous peak of 160.597.

Today is the final day of the BoJ's two-day policy meeting. The market currently estimates a very high probability, around 80%-98%, that the BoJ will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.75% to 1.00%. Inflation in Japan remains under pressure due to soaring global crude oil and energy prices, due to tensions in the Middle East. The BoJ considers this inflation risk to be greater than the risk of a domestic economic slowdown.

If the BoJ implements its policy rate at 1.00% and adopts a hawkish stance, the market response is expected to cause the Japanese Yen to strengthen sharply, triggering mass closures of Yen Carry trade positions. The 160.00-162.00 area is also considered a sensitive level to intervention because Japanese authorities have previously intervened to support the yen. The US-Iran peace deal has slightly weakened the USD, but its impact on the yen has so far been limited.

Meanwhile, the Fed also began its two-day meeting on June 16-17, 2026. The Fed's current interest rate is in the 3.50%-3.75% range, following several cuts from its peak in previous years. Market assessment shifts to the Fed's economic projections tomorrow. Before the release, the US dollar tends to move defensively or consolidate, awaiting clarity on the direction of future interest rate policy.

Short-term sentiment is expected to favor the yen, assuming the Bank of Japan (BoJ) actually raises interest rates to 1.00% and provides an optimistic or hawkish outlook. If they disappoint the market, for example, by delaying a rate hike or adopting a dovish stance, the USD/JPY could surge again, seeking new record highs.

USDJPY is currently trading around 160.30-160.40, with the psychological level of 160.00 remaining a crucial pivot for the JPY. The fair price range for USDJPY today is estimated at 150.00-161.50. Nearest support is around 159.50, with the next target around 158.00. Nearest resistance is around 160.80, with the next target around 161.50. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY price movement on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with shrinking spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a flat channel; prices above the line indicate a dominant uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and the VB Low is at 39. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment over bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDJPY movement shows interesting dynamics within the range between the lower and middle bands. The current price is right at the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with a slight curve downward, indicating sideways movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an upward channel, while the price is just above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 40. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 56 with a downward channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 34 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 48 with an upward channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY is trending bullish in the medium term with slowing upward momentum.

The recent price movement of the EUR/JPY pair has shown interesting dynamics. EUR/JPY has risen to a high of 186.317, the highest in May 2026. The daily chart shows a bullish candle with a relatively long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a low of 185.450 and a high of 186.317 on the FXOpen chart, which is within the upper band line.

The EUR/JPY trend is bullish, supported by the recent ECB policy, which raised interest rates on June 11 to 2.25% by 25 basis points, effective today, June 17, 2026. This is the first increase since 2023. This increase was triggered by a surge in eurozone inflation, which reached 3.2% in May due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which boosted oil prices and increased inflation in the eurozone. The ECB also revised its inflation projection to 3.00% in 2026.

The interest rate differential between the eurozone and Japan remains favorable for the euro, keeping investors interested in euro-denominated assets.

Today, the market is anticipating the release of the final eurozone CPI data for May. If this final data confirms or exceeds expectations, the euro will receive additional hawkish support, as the market anticipates further increases for the remainder of 2026. Core CPI is projected at 2.5%.

From Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised the market at its monetary meeting yesterday by raising its short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, the highest increase in three years. Despite the BoJ's rate hike, the Japanese yen weakened relatively after the announcement. The market appears to be focusing more on the BoJ's vote shifting to a 7-1 split, with some members opposing a hike due to the risk of an economic slowdown due to Middle East tensions. Furthermore, the BoJ emphasized that its policy will remain accommodative and gradual. Governor Kazuo Ueda's absence from yesterday's meeting due to health concerns also created some political uncertainty within the BoJ.

Today's battle is between the euro, driven by aggressive sentiment from the hawkish ECB due to rising inflation, and the yen, which, despite also raising interest rates, remains skeptical of the BoJ's aggressiveness going forward. Therefore, the fundamental conclusion is that EURJPY still maintains a short-term bullish bias. Volatility is expected to increase today with the implementation of the ECB's new interest rate and the release of final inflation data later.

EURJPY is expected to be in a reasonable price range of around 185.50-197.20. Immediate support is around 185.70, with the next target around 185.20. Immediate resistance is around 186.50, with the next target around 187.20. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

The EURJPY price movement on the daily timeframe is currently just below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is above the line, indicating upward momentum. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 59, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with an ascending channel, indicating bearishness outweighs bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 60, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 54 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURJPY is moving between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 45. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 within a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 within a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

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NZD/USD Under Sharp Pressure Following the Fed's Decision

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair is currently under pressure from a strengthening US dollar following the Fed's latest decision. The Fed maintained interest rates but signaled a possible rate hike by the end of the year due to projected higher inflation, supporting the broad-based US dollar.

The NZD/USD pair is currently drawing a long-bodied bearish candle, falling from a high of 0.58352 to a low of 0.57523. The current price is around 0.57688 on the FXOpen chart, moving near the lower band.

From New Zealand's perspective, factors supporting the NZD remain mixed. The economy is showing improving growth, and inflation is relatively stable, but the market still views the RBNZ's stance as being more cautious. Some previous comments by RBNZ officials were even considered more dovish than market expectations, weighing on the NZD.

The NZD is a risk currency sensitive to global risks. If global stock markets weaken and investors seek safe havens, the USD typically strengthens, causing the NZD/USD to decline.

The divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Fed is considered the main driver of the current NZD/USD movement. The latest FOMC meeting, led by Kevin Warsh, projected interest rates to remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the potential removal of easing bias has provided additional strength for the USD, as reflected in the sharp decline in the NZD.

The RBNZ currently maintains its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. Domestically, New Zealand's first-quarter inflation surged to 3.1%, fueling market expectations that the RBNZ will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting. However, the widening contraction in the services index indicates the domestic economy remains fragile.

Geopolitical factors, such as the agreement between the US and Iran that eased the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered risk-on sentiment and lowered oil prices. This decline in oil prices has actually eroded market bets on aggressive future RBNZ interest rate hikes as concerns about energy inflation subside.

The NZD/USD is currently experiencing short-term bearish pressure, despite the RBNZ's hawkish stance for July. The strength of the USD after the FOMC and the fragility of New Zealand's internal economic data have created a downward bias.

The NZDUSD's normal movement today is estimated to be in the range of 0.57000-0.58500. Nearest support is around 0.57500, with the next target around 0.57150. Nearest resistance is around 0.5820, with the next target around 0.5850. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD pair is currently above the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 38. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 within a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 38, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 42 within a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is moving outside the lower band, with Bollinger Bands appearing to widen, indicating a sharp increase in volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 32. The 29-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 30, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.