Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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Canadian Dollar Weakens, Market Anticipates US and Canadian Employment Data

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair exhibited high volatility, with current market sentiment tending toward moderate bullishness. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.39250 in mid-April 2026. The current price is around 1.39104 on the FXOpen chart, with the candlestick showing a bullish pattern with few shadows at the top and bottom of the candle.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the Canadian economic slowdown and growing concerns of a technical recession. Growth and investment data remain weak, so the market is holding back expectations for BoC policy tightening. Oil prices fluctuated and briefly fell sharply. As Canada is a major oil exporter, the decline in oil prices contributed to the CAD's weakening.

Today, the market is anticipating major news. Some are suggesting that today will be a Super Friday, with employment data from both neighboring countries released simultaneously.

The market anticipates a cooling in the US labor sector after the strong performance of the previous month. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to grow by 85,000-102,000 jobs, down from last month's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%-4.4%. If the NFP is above 150,000, it will reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Fed to hold interest rates high for longer, keeping the USD strong. Conversely, if it is below 70,000, expectations of an interest rate cut will increase and put pressure on the USD.

Canada will also release employment data at the same time. Markets expect employment to recover slightly by around 8,000-10,000 jobs after falling to minus 18,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates at 2.25%. If Canadian employment data is poor, pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at its next meeting will intensify, which could weaken the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomically, USD/CAD is currently experiencing moderate bullish sentiment due to renewed market concerns about US trade tariffs, which are pressuring commodity currencies like the CAD. Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), approaching the 100-point mark, has limited the CAD's room for movement.

Technically, USDCAD is moving strongly above its 50-day moving average (MA), confirming a short- to medium-term bullish bias on the daily chart structure. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.38300-1.39600. Immediate support is around 1.38700, with the next target around 1.38500. Immediate resistance is around 1.39400, with the next resistance target around 1.39800. This forecast could be incorrect.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 71 with an ascending channel, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 40. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 71 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

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Market volatility, WTI oil prices fall to around 88.75

The oil market is showing signs of a highly volatile consolidation phase, with prices likely to hover in the $90-$100 per barrel range amid a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and projections of future oversupply. At the end of the week, the XTIUSD price drew two consecutive bearish candles, bouncing near the 50-day moving average (MA). The closing price reached 88.74 at FXOpen, down from the previous high of $93.81.

The current bullish factor for the XTIUSD pair is tensions over the Strait of Hormuz in the US-Iran war. The geopolitical conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran since the beginning of the year has remained the main driver of high oil prices. Peace talks or negotiations on trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz have so far failed to produce concrete progress toward truly securing it. This issue keeps the risk premium high in the energy market.

Despite the US's commitment to releasing strategic oil reserves, domestic US refineries are operating at a very high rate, approaching 955% of their capacity. This has accelerated stock absorption and held prices back from rising sharply.

A bearish factor for the XTIUSD pair is that crude oil imports from China have reportedly declined significantly compared to the initial period before the conflict broke out. The lack of purchasing power from the world's largest energy consumer acts as a heavy anchor, preventing oil prices from rising higher beyond the $100 level.

Global financial institutions such as JP Morgan project that, structurally, global oil supply for the remainder of 2026 could potentially exceed demand growth. If geopolitical tensions suddenly subside, this supply fundamental is predicted to gradually push oil prices back to lower levels.

Goldman Sachs reports weakening global oil demand, particularly from China and Europe, which is also contributing as a bearish factor. The market is also considering the possibility of a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could reduce the geopolitical risk premium. OPEC+ recently agreed to increase production quotas for July, which could potentially increase supply if export constraints begin to ease.

Technically and based on daily sentiment, XTIUSD is expected to move within a wide consolidation range today as the market awaits new macro data catalysts such as the US inflation rate, CPI, and next week's FOMC meeting. US Crude Oil prices are expected to move within a daily range of $87 to $100. Nearest support is around $89.50, with the next target around $87.50. Nearest resistance is around $93.50, with the next target around $98.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

WTI crude oil prices on the daily timeframe are moving between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel that slightly curves downward, indicating range-bound movement with a slight bearish bias.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a flat channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 40. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 44 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a sloping channel, indicating sideways movement.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil prices are moving near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and still high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is between the middle and lower bands, drawing a horizontal channel. The price is below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is near the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 65, and its VB Low is pointing at 34. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base line is pointing at 50, drawing an upward channel, indicating the price is on a neutral path with potential for upward movement.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 37 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.