radex78
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Canadian Dollar Weakens, Market Anticipates US and Canadian Employment Data
The USD/CAD commodity currency pair exhibited high volatility, with current market sentiment tending toward moderate bullishness. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.39250 in mid-April 2026. The current price is around 1.39104 on the FXOpen chart, with the candlestick showing a bullish pattern with few shadows at the top and bottom of the candle.
The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the Canadian economic slowdown and growing concerns of a technical recession. Growth and investment data remain weak, so the market is holding back expectations for BoC policy tightening. Oil prices fluctuated and briefly fell sharply. As Canada is a major oil exporter, the decline in oil prices contributed to the CAD's weakening.
Today, the market is anticipating major news. Some are suggesting that today will be a Super Friday, with employment data from both neighboring countries released simultaneously.
The market anticipates a cooling in the US labor sector after the strong performance of the previous month. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to grow by 85,000-102,000 jobs, down from last month's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%-4.4%. If the NFP is above 150,000, it will reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Fed to hold interest rates high for longer, keeping the USD strong. Conversely, if it is below 70,000, expectations of an interest rate cut will increase and put pressure on the USD.
Canada will also release employment data at the same time. Markets expect employment to recover slightly by around 8,000-10,000 jobs after falling to minus 18,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates at 2.25%. If Canadian employment data is poor, pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at its next meeting will intensify, which could weaken the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomically, USD/CAD is currently experiencing moderate bullish sentiment due to renewed market concerns about US trade tariffs, which are pressuring commodity currencies like the CAD. Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), approaching the 100-point mark, has limited the CAD's room for movement.
Technically, USDCAD is moving strongly above its 50-day moving average (MA), confirming a short- to medium-term bullish bias on the daily chart structure. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.38300-1.39600. Immediate support is around 1.38700, with the next target around 1.38500. Immediate resistance is around 1.39400, with the next resistance target around 1.39800. This forecast could be incorrect.
USDCAD D1
On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.
The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.
The Market Base Line is at 51 with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is greater than bearish.
The RSI Price Line is at 71 with an ascending channel, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.
The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.
USDCAD H4
On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 40. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.
The Market Base Line is at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.
The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.
The Trade Signal Line is at 71 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a fading uptrend.
The USD/CAD commodity currency pair exhibited high volatility, with current market sentiment tending toward moderate bullishness. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.39250 in mid-April 2026. The current price is around 1.39104 on the FXOpen chart, with the candlestick showing a bullish pattern with few shadows at the top and bottom of the candle.
The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the Canadian economic slowdown and growing concerns of a technical recession. Growth and investment data remain weak, so the market is holding back expectations for BoC policy tightening. Oil prices fluctuated and briefly fell sharply. As Canada is a major oil exporter, the decline in oil prices contributed to the CAD's weakening.
Today, the market is anticipating major news. Some are suggesting that today will be a Super Friday, with employment data from both neighboring countries released simultaneously.
The market anticipates a cooling in the US labor sector after the strong performance of the previous month. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to grow by 85,000-102,000 jobs, down from last month's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%-4.4%. If the NFP is above 150,000, it will reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Fed to hold interest rates high for longer, keeping the USD strong. Conversely, if it is below 70,000, expectations of an interest rate cut will increase and put pressure on the USD.
Canada will also release employment data at the same time. Markets expect employment to recover slightly by around 8,000-10,000 jobs after falling to minus 18,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates at 2.25%. If Canadian employment data is poor, pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at its next meeting will intensify, which could weaken the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomically, USD/CAD is currently experiencing moderate bullish sentiment due to renewed market concerns about US trade tariffs, which are pressuring commodity currencies like the CAD. Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), approaching the 100-point mark, has limited the CAD's room for movement.
Technically, USDCAD is moving strongly above its 50-day moving average (MA), confirming a short- to medium-term bullish bias on the daily chart structure. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.38300-1.39600. Immediate support is around 1.38700, with the next target around 1.38500. Immediate resistance is around 1.39400, with the next resistance target around 1.39800. This forecast could be incorrect.
USDCAD D1
On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.
The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.
The Market Base Line is at 51 with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is greater than bearish.
The RSI Price Line is at 71 with an ascending channel, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.
The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.
USDCAD H4
On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 40. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.
The Market Base Line is at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.
The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.
The Trade Signal Line is at 71 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a fading uptrend.
