Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday at $2469. XAUDUSD price strong rally drawing a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.

Even though the price of gold fell because US retail sales data was higher than expectations, it seemed only temporary and became a stepping stone for gold to jump higher.

As eagerly awaited retail sales data shows the actual value of 0.4% from the expected 0.1%, this reflects an increase in purchasing power so that market confidence in the Fed cutting interest rates increases. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the chance of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut is 93.3%.

Apart from that, the political situation in the US ahead of the election became a matter of public concern after Trump's shooting, if the situation worsens it might have a good impact on gold because investors are concerned that they prefer gold as a safe-haven asset.

XAUDUSD D1

We see the price of gold soaring above the upper band line. Bollinger bands expand further away from the mean value reflecting high volatility.

According to the TDI indicator, VB high shows a value of 64, and VB Low shows a value of 40 indicating higher market volatility.

The Market Base Line points to level 51 giving bullish weight higher than bearish.

RSI Price Line points to a value of 70, indicating the uptrend is already in the overbought zone.

Trend Signal Line is pointing at the value 63 drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment

XAUUSD H4

Gold price moves above the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with expanding bands reflecting bullish sentiment in a high volatility market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 81 and VB Low shows a value of 50 indicating high market volatility

The Market Base Line points to level 66 indicating that the bullish price trend has more weight than the bearish one

RSI Price Line points to level 84 indicating price is already in overbought zone level

Trend Signal Line points to level 77 drawing an ascending channel indicating strong bullish momentum

 

[radex78]

Ahead of Australian job data, AUDUSD prices tend to be flat. AUDUSD's price yesterday drew a small body bearish candlestick with a longer wick at the top of the candle.

Yesterday's highest price was 0.67543 and the lowest was 0.67206. The price is now consolidating near the middle band line. Today there is an important economic schedule related to AUD and USD about job data.

According to Forexfactory Job Data Australia, Employment Change last month was 39.7k, expected at 19.9k. Meanwhile, the previous month's Unemployment Rate was 4.0% and is expected to increase to 4.1%.

Meanwhile, in US job data, the previous data Unemployment Rate of 222k is, expected to rise by 229k.

AUDUSD D1

Price moves between the upper and middle bands. Looking at the price history this week, the AUDUSD pair has been declining since July 15 this week, marked by the price chart drawing bearish candles in the last three days.

Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly expanding bands indicating high volatility. The previous highest price at 0.67408 could be the first resistance zone level. While 0.67409 could be the first support zone level.

The TDI indicator VB High shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a level of 45, indicating rather high volatility.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 56 indicating a bullish weight greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows level 61 drawing a descending channel indicating prices are falling away from the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to level 56 indicates a bullish weight greater than bearish.

AUDUSD H4

Prices move between the middle and lower bands, consolidating within the range of high 0.67543 and low 0.673234. Bollinger bands draw a slight descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 36, indicating high market volatility.

The Market Base Line points to level 53 drawing a descending channel indicating that although the trend is decreasing, the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line pointing to level 40 indicates the price is below the downtrend level and closer to the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to level 43 crosses RPL from the lower side, there is an indication of trend reversal.

 

[radex78]

EURUSD drew a bearish candle yesterday amid mixed US economic data.

EURUSD's price yesterday formed a high of 1.09404 and a low of 1.08932. The price draws a bearish long body candle with almost no shadow. Visually the price goes back to near the previous low.

Yesterday's US economic data showed mixed data, on the one hand, Unemployment claims pushed the USD lower, on the other hand, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index pushed the USD stronger. Meanwhile, European economic data Main Refinancing Rate shows unchanged data remaining at 4.25%.

President Christine Lagarde told the conference that domestic inflation remains high and wages are increasing at a high rate. He also highlighted wages, profits and geopolitical factors as potential risks of rising inflation.

EURUSD D1

The EURUSD moving average since June 26 has tended to start drawing lower highs which reflects bullish sentiment starting to dominate the market. This bullish sentiment successfully crossed the middle band and MA line from the downside.

Expanding Bollinger bands reflect high volatility. Even though bullish sentiment dominates, the 100 MA draws a flat channel far below the price.

VB High Line TDI indicator shows level 68 and VB Low shows level 35 indicating high market volatility.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 51, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line points to 61 TSL crosses from the upside away from the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 65 indicating uptrend movement.

EURUSD H4

There is a bearish pattern in this timeframe of curved bearish candles. Price successfully crossed the middle band line from the upper side trying to approach the lower band line. The Bollinger band line is slightly expanding reflecting slightly increased volatility.

Visually, the 100 MA line draws an ascending channel below the price, indicating bullish momentum.

VB High TDI Indicator points to level 78 and VB Low points to level 51 indicating moderate volatility.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 64, meaning the weight of bullish is higher than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 passing MBL, TSL and VB low from the upper side further away from the Overbought zone approaching the oversold zone.

 

[radex78]

Friday's market mover, US data showed initial jobless claims were released higher than expectations, 243K vs 230K, while the manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed jumped to 13.9 from the previous 1.3.

Although geopolitical risks support gold, there is a decline in physical buying in Asia, which may pause the yellow metal for bulls.

On the other hand, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, added Fed officials who welcomed the progress of cooling inflation. Goolsbee said it was very clear that inflation had fallen in the last 12-18 months and considered this to be the fastest rate of inflation ever seen.

Today's focus. There is no important economic data from the economic schedule related to the USD. However, traders need to follow market updates even though it is predicted that gold price movements may pause or consolidate.

XAUUSD D1

Gold prices began their decline after setting a new all-time high record on July 17, after which gold prices declined successively and reached a low of $2393. Profit-taking may dominate amid mixed US economic data on Friday.

The expanding Bollinger band still indicates high volatility, but the price is now close to the middle band line which often acts as a consolidation zone.

VB High on the TDI indicator shows a value of 65 and VB Low shows a value of 40, there is a difference of 25 which reflects the volatility value of gold.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 53, reflecting the bullish weight being heavier than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 59 cutting TSL from the upside, trying to away from the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 64, reflecting that bulls' sentiment could dominate in the long term.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price is moving near the lower band line now. Price history shows a sharp decline in gold that managed to pass the middle band line and the lower band line reflects a strong sharp decline. Expanding Bollinger bands indicate high volatility.

VB High on the TDI Indicator points to a value of 87 and VB Low points to a value of 37 with a difference of 50 reflecting the volatility value of gold in this time frame.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 62 indicating a bullish weight greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 31, indicating the price is in the oversold zone allowing a reversal.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 37 indicating the price is in a downward trend in this time frame.

 

[radex78]

The decline in Silver prices loosened near the lower band line. After last week Silver declined for 4 consecutive days, in last Monday's trading the price sought balance near the lower band line.

Silver draws almost an indecision candle like a Doji with short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The decline in silver prices may be due to declining Chinese demand due to the economic slowdown.

Besides that, yesterday there was no important news that caught traders' attention, which allows traders to wait for the next important event.

Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election is hot news in the US which could change the American political map.
Today there are no important economic schedules from the economic calendar according to Forexfactory.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price is around 29 now. Yesterday the price drew an indecision candlestick with an Open at 29,162, a High at 29,426, a Low at 28,741, and a Close at 29,118.

Price is moving near the lower band line which could act as dynamic support. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing reflecting a range market with high volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and the VB Low shows a value of 41, the difference in value is 19 which reflects the current volatility value.

The market Base Line shows a value of 51, the bullish weight is slightly heavier than the bearish.

RSI price line shows a value of 41 drawing a descending channel, indicative of a downtrend.

Trend Signal Line points to the value 49 drawing a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upside, there is a barish indication.

XAGUSD H4

The price is between the middle and lower bands with the Bollinger band line deflated indicating reduced volatility even though the BB line drew a descending channel.

VB High points to a value of 56 and VB Low points to a value of 23, the difference of 33 is the volatility value of Silver.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 40, meaning the bearish weight is heavier than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 34, drawing an upward channel crossing the TDL, indicating a bullish signal.

The Trend Signal Line points to the value 30, drawing a slight upward channel, indicating a change in trend.

 

[radex78]

EURUSD fell drawing a long body bearish candlestick yesterday. It continued last week's decline after a lull on Monday.

The disinflation process in the Eurozone is quite encouraging, allowing the ECB to lower interest rates in September. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said September was a much more comfortable month to decide than July.

EURUSD price yesterday formed a high of 1.08962, and a low of 1.08434, there was only a small shadow on the top and bottom of the candle.

Today investors will probably focus on inflation data. PMI data from Germany and France which may influence the value of the Euro.

French Flash Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be 45.8 from the previous 45.4. Meanwhile, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 44.1 from the previous 43.5.

EURUSD D1

The current price at 1.08525 is moving near the middle band line which is often the consolidation zone line. Bollinger bands here are drawing an ascending channel but the bands are starting to bend.

MA 100 and MA 50 draw flat channels indicating a sideways trend in the long term.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to level 67 and VB Low points to level 35, a difference of 32 which is the EURUSD volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 51, the weight of bullish is slightly greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 53 drawing a downward line indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 60, down from the previous value of 64 on July 22.

EURUSD H4

Price moves near the lower band line. Bollinger bands are drawing a slight descending channel with the bands deflating indicating a downtrend of somewhat reduced volatility.

The MA 200 and MA 50 give a bullish signal in this time frame, however, the MA 50 line is starting to curve, indicating that the bullish trend is starting to weaken.

VB High points to level 69 and VB Low points to level 30, there is a difference of 59 which reflects the volatility value.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 50, indicating a neutral signal.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 30, drawing a descending line indicating the price has entered the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 38 drawing a decreasing line indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USDJPY extends losses further on hawkish sentiment surrounding BoJ's policy stance ahead of next week's meeting.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.0. On the other hand, the Services PMI jumped to 53.9 from 49.4 previously.

The US manufacturing PMI also contracted, amounting to 49.5 from the previous 51.6, missing expectations of 51.7. Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 56.0 from the previous 55.3, slightly higher than expectations of 51.7.

Even though the economic data for Japan and the US are somewhat similar, it seems that the difference in the higher Japanese services PMI data has contributed to the strengthening of the JPY.

Apart from these reasons, anticipation of the BoJ raising interest rates at its policy meeting next week, prompted short-sellers to exit their positions and support the JPY.

Meanwhile, the USD is challenged by the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next September. CME Group's FedWatch Tool data shows an increase in the probability value of 93.6% for the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting.

Today investors are focused on the release of GDP news and US unemployment claims, which may have an impact on financial markets including the USDJPY pair.

USDJPY D1

Yesterday USDJPY price drew a long-body bearish candlestick with a high of 155,975 and a low of 153,100. There is a slight shadow on the top and bottom of the candle.

The price is now near the lower band line, here the Bollinger band expands indicating high market volatility. Further decline could reach MA 200 which is a possible support zone.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 81 and the VB Low shows a value of 32, the difference of 49 reflects the value of market volatility.

Market Base Line points to a value of 57, the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 27 down from the previous day, an indication that the price has entered the oversold zone, beware of a reversal.

Trade Signal Line shows the value 35 drawing a descending channel indicative of a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

The price moves near the lower band line, the Bollinger band line expands reflecting high volatility. In this time frame, an MA death cross occurs, marked by the 50 MA crossing the 200 MA from the upper side.

VB High points to a value of 51 and VB Low points to a value of 21, a difference of 30 indicates the value of market volatility.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 36, the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 26 indicating price is in the oversold zone

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 26, an indication of a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD extended its advance reaching a high price level of 1.38478 before rebounding near 1.38224. USDCAD's bullish sentiment started in mid-July and still shows a strong rally until now.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BoC) again reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, this is the same as the analyst's expectations of 4.50% from the previous 4.75%. Further rate cuts are likely according to Commerzbank FX strategists.

According to Commerzbank FX strategist Michael Pfister, CAD will still be under pressure until the end of the year, because lowering interest rates will only provide a pause in profits in the real economic sector.

On the other hand, the strong US GDP is another reason that pressures CAD to weaken further. In the GDP Advanced report the US economic data grew at a high rate of 2.8%, double the previous release's 1.4%. Previously, economists predicted GDP growth of 2.0%. On the other hand, US Unemployment Claims data also fell by 235k from the previous 245k, further supporting the strengthening of the USD, previously economists predicted Unemployment Claims of 237K.

Today investors will focus on US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data or CPI, which is the Fed's most preferred tool for considering interest rate policy. Data for June showed the PCE value was 0.1% in line with economists' expectations.

Economists predict that PCE will rise 0.2% from the previous 0.1%, if the actual data is greater than forecast, it usually has a good impact on the USD.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD price is now near the upper band line. High market volatility is indicated by the expanding Bollinger band with the middle band line starting to rise. USDCAD price has even surpassed the previous month's high. Technically, currently, the price is entering the overbought zone which allows for a reversal or pullback.

VB High TDI Indicator shows a value of 66 and VB Low shows a value of 37, the difference of 29 reflects the current value of the pair's volatility.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 52, indicating that the long-term trend has a greater bullish than bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 71 indicating that the price is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 66 indicating strong bullish sentiment.

USDCAD H4

The price is now moving between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger band line draws an upward channel with wide upper and lower band spacing indicating a bullish market with high market volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 79 and VB Low shows a value of 60, the difference of 19 reflects the current market volatility value.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 70 indicating a bullish weight greater than bearish

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 66 indicating an uptrend approaching the overbought zone level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 72 indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold shows gains at the start of the market opening.

The forex market started to be active today, gold at market opening has risen marked by a bullish candlestick on the M15 timeframe since market opening. A long candlestick with almost no shadow reflects an increase in gold prices with quite high volatility.

The price of gold on Friday last week tried to rebound after previously falling to a low of 2352, gold's rebound succeeded in bringing it to a high level of 2402 at the time of writing.

Core PCE Index data on Friday showed the actual value of 0.2%, the same as analysts predicted from the previous revision of only 0.1%. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in the same period, matching the gain in May but above market expectations of 2.5%.

According to the FedWatch tool, the probability that the target rate at the July 31 Fed Meeting will increase is 95.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut could encourage gold as a safe-haven asset because it does not provide returns.

On the other hand, Chinese data from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut its benchmark interest rate from 3.45% to 3.35% and lowered the five-year loan interest rate from 3.95% to 3.85%. China's economic data is considered important because this country is the world's largest gold importer.

Today there is no important news on the economic calendar, perhaps market changes will be more natural without high-impact news.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold is now moving near the middle band line which is often a price consolidation zone, the price has crossed the middle band from the downside indicating gold is trying to push up.

Bollinger bands still show a slightly flat wide band distance, indicates of decreasing volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator shows 65 and the VB low shows 42, the difference of 23 reflects the volatility value of gold in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 53 indicating bullish weight is greater than bearish

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 51 trying to cross the TSL from the lower side indicating the price is slightly above the uptrend level.

Trade Signal Line shows the value 51 drawing a descending channel indicative of a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The price of gold in this time frame moves above the middle band line, an expanding Bollinger band indicates high market volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 52 and a VB low of 26, the difference of 26 reflects the volatility value of gold in the H4 timeframe.

The market Base Line pointing to level 39 indicates a bearish weight greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to level 47 crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side indicating a downtrend market giving a bullish signal.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to level 44 drawing an ascending channel indicates a bullish signal in a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

EURUSD slide extends nearly three weeks of decline. EURUSD price hit a low of 1.08023 ahead of Eurozone inflation data and Fed policy.

Looking at price history backward, the decline in EURUSD started July 17 and there is still potential to extend the decline.

This month the Fed predicted to hold interest rates unchanged, a cut is expected at the end of this year around September.

The Federal Funds Rate will be released Thursday, predicted to be unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's monetary policy statement and press conference to get fresh clues on rate cuts.

Today's important economic data in the European zone, German CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.1%. French flash GDP is forecast unchanged at 0.2% as per previous revision data.

Meanwhile, in today's US economic data, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to fall by 99.7 from the previous revision of 100.4. Meanwhile, new job openings are predicted to fall by 8.02 M from the previous revision of 8.14 M.

EURUSD D1

Yesterday's price drew a long body bearish candlestick with small shadows on the top and bottom of the candle indicating a strong downtrend.

Price managed to cross the middle band line after three days of consolidation near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw deflating bands reflecting reduced volatility.

The VB high TDI indicator points to level 67 and VB low 36, the difference of 31 reflects the volatility value of EURUSD in the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 51, the bullish weight is slightly heavier than the bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 47 which has successfully crossed the MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 51 drawing a descending channel almost crossing the MBL indicating a downtrend.

EURUSD H4

Price moves near the lower band line. Consolidated price movement after falling from the range of 1.08693 to 1.08023.
Bollinger bands expand slightly reflecting slightly increased volatility.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 52 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 23 reflects the EURUSD volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The market Base Line points to a value of 40, indicating bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 37 drawing a flat line indicating flat prices below the downtrend level.

Trade Signal Line pointing at the value 40 draws a descending channel almost crossing the MBL indicating a downtrend.