Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

NZDUSD bounces ahead of RBNZ's Official Cash Rate

An interesting phenomenon occurred in the NZDUSD pair. The price of this currency pair soars drawing a bull candlestick with a long body small shadow on the top of the candle. Yesterday the price formed a low of 0.60112 and a high of 0.60811 close at 0.60636.

The increase in NZDUSD prices reaching the MA 200 line which draws a flat channel indicates that the long-term trend tends to be neutral.

The surge in NZDUSD prices extended the previous increase after ending the consolidation stage near the middle band line.

Today the RBNZ will officially announce the cash rate. The policy interest rate is now 5.50%, the highest since 2008.

Nine of 23 Bloomberg analysts surveyed predicted the RBNZ would begin a rate cut cycle, while markets were pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Meanwhile, the forecast by Forexfactory is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

Today, besides waiting for the RBNZ cash rate, investors are also waiting for US inflation data, CPI which is expected to rise 0.2% from the previous 0.1%.

NZDUSD D1

The price is now moving near the upper band line and MA 200. Bollinger bands draw a transition channel with wide band spacing indicating a high volatility market.

The 200 MA draws a flat channel reflecting a more neutral long-term trend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 59 and the VB low shows a value of 26. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 43 with a slight upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish with the potential for a trend transition.

The RSI price line points to a value of 63 cross MBL indicating an uptrend is approaching the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal line shows a value of 53 cross MBL indicating an uptrend market.

NZDUSD H4

The price moved near the upper band line, breaking the 200 MA from the lower side. Expanding Bollinger bands indicate rising volatility.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 69 and the VB low shows a value of 50. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line draws a slight upward channel pointing to a value of 59 meaning the weight is bullish greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 69 cross MBL and the upper band line indicates the price has entered the overbought zone.

The trade signal line shows a value of 66 cross MBL indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD is consolidating near MA 200

AUDUSD price yesterday drew a long-body bearish candlestick with a shadow on the top candle.

AUDUSD price fell to the initial track near the MA 200 and middle band line which is the mean value of price deviation.

One of the reasons for the decline in AUDUSD prices was weaker commodity prices on Wednesday. Additionally, yesterday's US inflation data slightly supported the strengthening of the USD.

Meanwhile, the RBA maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% due to its cautious stance not to rush into easing its policy. Core CPI is projected to reach the midpoint of the 2-3% range by the end of 2026.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that an interest rate cut would not happen and he did not hesitate to raise interest rates if necessary to control inflation, reflecting a hawkish stance because inflation remains high.

Today investors are waiting for Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data. Expected Employment Change of 20.2k is lower than the previous 50.2k and the Unemployment Rate is predicted to be the same as the previous data of 4.1%.

Apart from that, other important news is US retail sales and Unemployment Claims which are also of concern to investors.

AUDUSD D1

AUDUSD price is now moving near the MA 200 slightly above the middle band line. The BB line appears to be deflated reflecting lower volatility.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 72 and the VB low shows a value of 21. The difference of 51 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The market base line draws a flat channel pointing to level 47, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line points at the value 50 drawing a descending channel reflecting a neutral signal.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 47 drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

AUDUSD H4

The price moved slightly below the middle band line with a bouncing candlestick pattern after nearing the 200 MA. The BB line drew a flat channel with narrow band spacing reflecting low volatility.

The VB high TDI indicator points to a value of 68 and the VB low points to a value of 50, the difference of 18 reflects the AUDUSD volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 59 with a flat channel reflecting a greater bullish than bearish weight.

The RSI price line shows a value of 49 across TSL and MBL indicating a downtrend signal.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at the value 59 with a descending channel indicating in bullish sentiment the price is trying to fall.

 

[radex78]

EURCHF extends gains near 200 MA

Yesterday EURCHF rose drawing a long-body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow with a high of 0.95806 and a low of 0.95167 closing at 0.95726. The price breaks the middle band line rising slightly below the MA 200 and MA 50.

The 50 MA is drawing a slight descending channel trying to cross from the upside of the 200 MA which is drawing a flat channel.

Switzerland's CPI in July showed a 0.2% decrease compared to the previous month reaching 107.5 points with inflation +1.3% compared to the same month the previous year.

Currently, the SNB interest rate is 1.25% valid from 21 June 2024. The CHF currency is often considered one of the safe-haven currencies because of its long-term economic stability. Switzerland also has a long history of hard assets including gold reserves.

While the ECB rate is currently 4.25% effective from 12 June, the euro area annual inflation rate was 2.5% in June 2024, down from 2.6% in May.

EURCHF started an upward reversal on August 5 after a long downtrend wave.

EURCHF D1

The price is now moving near the MA 50 and MA 200 slightly above the middle band line. The BB line starts to flatten, indicating a decrease in volatility, but the wide spacing between the upper and lower bands still indicates high volatility.

MA 50 crossing MA 200 from the upside, theoretically gives a sell signal but an ascending candlestick pattern provides a different signal.

The VH high TDI indicator shows a value of 68 and the VB low shows a value of 22. The difference of 42 reflects the EURCHF volatility value in the D1 timeframe.

The Market Base Line draws a flat channel pointing to the value 45, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bearish in the long term.

The RSI price line draws an MBL cross-rising channel from the downside pointing to level 55 indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line draws an ascending channel trying to cross MBL from the downside pointing to level 47 indicating an uptrend at the moment.

EURCHF H4

The price is moving near the upper band line slightly below the 200 MA drawing a flat channel. The BB line draws a slight upward channel with slightly wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with medium volatility.

MA 50 below the price is starting to draw an upward channel indicating a trend transition from bearish to bullish.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 73 and VB Low points to a value of 53. The difference of 20 reflects the EURCHF volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 63 drawing an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 75 with an upward channel indicating that the price is entering the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 71 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices hit a new all-time high

Gold prices were unstoppable after breaking through the resistance zone in the Bollinger band range, thus forming a new all-time high at $2509.

Geopolitical risks and China's recovery could be the reason for the soaring gold prices in addition to waning fears of a US recession after better-than-expected US data.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 75.5% expect the Fed's interest rate to fall by 25 bps, and 24.5% expect a 50 bps rate cut in September.

US economic data released last week has reduced fears of a recession. Higher-than-expected retail sales and lower jobless claims faded recession fears.

This week several important news will be released in the economic calendar schedule which may be of concern to the market, FOMC meeting minutes, and some other important economic data on August 22.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price is now moving above the upper band line. We witnessed gold price breaking the upper band line ending the consolidation phase a few days ago last week and drawing a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.

At market opening, there was no gap in gold. The 200 MA draws an upward channel well below the price reflecting a long-term bullish market.

The Bollinger band tries to expand after the breakout with the middle band bending upwards and the lower band deviating downwards.

The VB high TDI indicator points to a value of 67 and VB low points to a value of 47. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value of gold in the D1 timeframe.

The market Base Line draws a flat channel pointing to the value 57, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 65 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend approaching the 70 overbought zone.

The Trade Signal line draws an MBL cross-rising channel pointing to a value of 61 indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The price moves near the upper band line. The BB line expands to reflect high volatility. The 200 MA is drawing a slight upward channel well below the price indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 74 and the VB low points to a value of 48. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value of gold in the H4 timeframe.

The market Base Line points to a value of 61 drawing a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 73 with a horizontal channel indicating that the price is in the overbought zone.

The trade signal line shows a value of 64 cross MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD extends declines earlier this week.

USDCAD yesterday drew a bearish candlestick continuing the previous decline. The price formed a long body bearish candlestick with a slight shadow on the top candle with a high price of 1.36840 and a low of 1.36327.

On the Weekly time frame, USDCAD declines for three consecutive weeks with the first week reflecting extreme declines.

The Bank Of Canada's interest rate is now at 4.50%, but market consensus expects the central bank to cut rates 25 bps from 4.50% to 4.25% at its September meeting.

Meanwhile, the market hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates at the end of the year, which is estimated in September the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps, from 4.50% to 4.25%.

Today investors are focused on Canadian inflation data, the Consumer Price Index which is forecast at 0.4% from previous data -0.1%.

USDCAD D1

The price is now moving near the lower band line. The BB line appears to expand, reflecting increased volatility with wide band spacing.

MA 200 draws a flat channel below the price, this could be a dynamic support zone for USDCAD at around 1.35971.

The TDI indicator's VB high point value of 73 and its VB low point to 32. The difference of 41 reflects the USDCAD volatility value in the D1 timeframe.

The market Base Line draws a flat channel pointing to the value 53, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line draws a descending channel crossing the MBL pointing to a value of 33 indicating a downtrend near the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing to level 40 draws a descending channel crossing the MBL indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

Price moves near the lower band line. The BB line appears to be expanding, reflecting increasing volatility.

The 200 MA draws a flat channel above the price indicating sideways with more dominant bearish potential.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to a value of 52 and VB low points to a value of 28. The difference of 26 reflects the USDCAD volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with a slight downward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI price line draws a descending channel crossing the MBL and the VB low points to a value of 25, indicating the price downtrend is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line menggambar saluran penurunan melintasi MBL dari sisi atas menunjuk nilai 29 indicates downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

EURCHF plummeted after a retest near MA 50.

EURCHF yesterday drew a long body bearish candlestick with almost no shadow. The price fell from a high of 0.95657 to a low of 0.94842 and back to near the middle band line.

The SnB rate is currently 1.25% while the ECB rate is 4.25%. Traders sometimes use high interest rate differences to carry out trade strategies.

CHF is a safe-haven currency because Switzerland has political stability and low inflation and this was proven when the global instability of the 2008 financial crisis occurred, investors switched to CHF and pushed its value higher.

Factors influencing the EURCHF value include ECB and SNB monetary policy, GDP, Employment change, industrial production, CPI, etc.

Other pairs that are positively correlated with EURCHF include CADCHF and USDCHF. Meanwhile, pairs with negative correlations such as CHFJPY, and CHFSGD.

EURCHF D1

EURCHF price moved near the middle band line after falling drawing a bearish candlestick yesterday. EURCHF failed to penetrate the MA 50 which acts as dynamic resistance.

Bollinger bands appear to be deflated and drawing a flat channel indicating reduced volatility.

MA 50 crosses MA 200 from the upside allowing a downtrend signal, both are above the current price.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 66 and VB low shows a value of 22. The difference of 44 reflects the volatility value of EURCHF in D1 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to the value 44 drawing a slight downward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 46 TSL cross from the upper side indicating a possible downtrend signal.

The trade signal line points to the value 50 with a flat channel indicating a trend transition.

EURCHF H4

EURCHF price tries to cross the 50 MA from the upside. The 200 MA is above the price drawing a slight downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

Bollinger bands appear to be expanding slightly, indicating a possible increase in volatility.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to level 76 and VB low points to level 45. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The market base line draws a slight descending channel pointing to level 60, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 38 cross MBL and TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend, approaching the oversold zone.

The trade signal line shows a value of 46 MBL crosses from the upper side indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBPUSD extends its winning streak this week.

Yesterday GBPUSD drew a bullish candlestick continuing the previous bullish trend. Price formed a high of 1.31186, a low of 1.30101, and closed at 1.30830.

The market seems increasingly confident that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Data from the FedWatch tool now shows 64% believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps and 36% believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps.

At the FOMC in July, Fed officials decided to keep the benchmark interest rate stable, with a tendency for some officials to start easing.

The main source for investors looking for clues about a rate cut is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday-Saturday which predated Powell's statement on Friday.

On the other hand, market expectations for a reduction in BoE interest rates have also increased. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July showed core inflation slowed by 3.3% from the forecast of 3.4%.

Today investors focus on news that may have a high impact on currencies, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI UK and US.

UK Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 52.1, the same as the previous release, and services PMI is forecast at 52.8 from the prior release of 52.5.

US Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.5 from the previous release of 49.6 and services PMI is forecast at 54.0 from the prior release of 55.0. Meanwhile, US unemployment claims are predicted to increase by 232k from the prior release of 227k.

GBPUSD D1

Price depicts a strong long rally. The trend started when the price was near the MA 200 on August 8, which then rose slowly and managed to cross the MA 50 and middle band line. Expanding Bollinger bands reflect high volatility.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to a value of 76 and VB low points to a value of 38. The difference of 46 reflects the high volatility value of GBPUSD in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line draws an ascending channel pointing to level 57, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 71 crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating that the uptrend has entered the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing at the value 53 crossing the MBL from the downside indicates an uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

The price moves near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with high volatility market.

MA 50 crosses MA 200 from the downside indicating a buying signal which reflects bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 84 and VB low shows a value of 59. The difference of 25 reflects the GBPUSD volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base line points to a value of 72 drawing an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 78, drawing a horizontal channel, indicating that the price has entered the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal line points at 76 with a flat channel indicating a fading bullish signal.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices fell in the middle of the Jackson Hole Symposium

Gold price yesterday recorded a decline at a low of $2470 from a high of $2514 by drawing a bearish candlestick with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The decline in gold prices answered the previous candlestick's indecision.

US Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday showed the actual value of 48.0 lower than the forecast of 49.5. However, the US Services manufacturing PMI showed actual data of 55.2, higher than the forecast of 54.0. The actual data is also higher than the previous data release of 55.0. The same US unemployment claims were expected to be 232k higher than the previous data release of 228k.

Weak US data signals an imminent US interest rate cut and continues to support Gold in general. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September. According to the CME group's FedWatch tool, expectations for a 25 bps rate cut rose 75%, while a 50 bps cut was 25%. A higher cut rate might support gold as a non-yielding asset.

Today investors may will wait for Jerome Powell's speech as head of the central bank which controls short-term interest rates and monetary policy to see the statement as hawkish or dovish.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold fell, drawing a bearish candlestick with a shadow at the bottom of the candle, indicating a decline accompanied by quite high buying pressure. Prices move between the upper and middle band lines with a wide BB line reflecting high market volatility.

The 200 MA is far below the price drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the long term.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 68 and VB low shows a value of 47, the difference of 21 reflects the gold volatility value in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line with a flat channel points to a value of 58, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 58 crossing the TSL from the upside indicating a downtrend.

The trade signal line points to the value 62 with a flat channel indicating sideways or trend transition.

XAUUSD H4

Price moves near the lower band line. The BB line expands slightly, reflecting a slight increase in volatility. The 200 MA below the price draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 74 and VB low shows a value of 44, a difference of 30 reflects high volatility in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 59 with a descending channel indicating the bullish weight is still greater than bearish.

The RSI price line is pointing at 41 with the flat end of the channel having crossed the MBL and TSL indicating a fading downtrend.


Trade signal line menunjuk nilai 47 melintasi MBL dari sisi atas dengan saluran penurunan indicates downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

NZDUSD managed to pass the high on June drawing a new high at 0.62359.

NZDUSD price fluctuations appear to have started a bullish sentiment journey since the beginning of the first week of August. NZDUSD's bullish sentiment appears unstoppable despite weaker New Zealand economic data. New Zealand retail sales showed actual data -1.2% lower than expected -1.0%, even much lower than the previous revision of 0.4%.

It seems that New Zealand's weak economic data was offset by Powell's dovish speech. In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell stated that the size and timing of interest rate cuts would depend on data, adopting a stance like the European Central Bank (ECB). He added that he believes inflation is on a sustainable path to return to 2% and inflation risks have reduced.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, 63.5% of investors believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%, and 36.5% believe it will cut by 0.50%.

The RBNZ interest rate is now 5.25%, this central bank has cut the previous interest rate to 5.50%, thus further suppressing the performance of the NZDUSD, which is also called KIWI by traders.

Today's economic calendar schedule does not show any high-impact news data, but some that may be of concern is US Durable Goods Orders data.

NZDUSD D1

NZDUSD price jumped high at the end of the week then broke the upper band line and left the BB line. The long bullish candlestick reflects a strong uptrend at that time with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle.

The Bollinger bands are expanding reflecting high market volatility, although the 200 MA is drawing a flat channel below the price.

The VB high TDI indicator points to a value of 67 and the VB low points to a value of 24. The difference of 43 reflects the high volatility of NZDUSD in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to level 46 with a slight upward channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 70 and has crossed the MBL and TSL, indicating the uptrend has entered the overbought zone.

The trade signal line pointing to the value 65 has crossed the MBL indicating an uptrend market.

NZDUSD H4

In this time frame, NZDUSD moves outside the BB line. Expanding Bollinger bands reflect increased volatility. Meanwhile, the 200 MA draws a flat channel far below the price.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 81 and the VB low shows a value of 57. The difference of 24 reflects the value of NZDUSD volatility in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 69 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows the value 78 has crossed the TSL and MBL indicates the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 68 with the rising channel trying to cross the MBL from the lower side indicates an uptrend market.

The strong bullish pattern appears to be fading somewhat but still does not indicate a decline in bull sentiment at the start of this market opening, and there is a slight gap that can be seen in the M15 timeframe which shows the open price is lower than the previous close.

 

[radex78]

EURUSD corrected after surging last week.

EURUSD yesterday had difficulty extending its rising, stalling at the price range of 1.12000. Yesterday's price drew a bearish candlestick half the body of the previous candlestick indicating a possible retracement.

Speculation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is getting stronger because Powell's dovish speech last Friday assured the public that it will cut interest rates because of indicators that convinced the 2% inflation target can be achieved. However, investors this week are waiting for US core PCE inflation data and Eurozone CPI for August.

Apart from the Fed possibly cutting interest rates in September, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also predicted to cut interest rates again at its September meeting. For further guidance on interest rate policy, investors will focus on inflation data from Germany and the European zone.

Another factor that investors are paying attention to is the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July, which will be published on Friday.

Today's economic news that may get the attention of traders is US Consumer Confidence which surveyed 3,000 households which asked respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD is now moving around 1.11605, down from a high of 1.12010. Prices were corrected down after reaching a high of 1.12002 last weekend. Bollinger bands still appear wide, indicating high market volatility. Meanwhile, the 200 MA draws a flat channel far below the price.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 75 and VB low shows a value of 47. The difference of 28 reflects the EURUSD volatility value in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 61 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 69 crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a possible trend transition after the price enters the overbought zone.

Trade Signal line points to a value of 72 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

The price is now moving near the middle band line which acts as a means of band deviation. Bollinger bands with an upward channel are starting to form a flat direction with a rather narrow band indicating low volatility. The 200 MA is far below the price drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 88 and VB low shows a value of 57. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 71 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is still greater than the bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 58 crossing the MBL and TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value of 64 crossing the MBL from the upside indicates a downtrend.