Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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Gold prices plunged after US PPI data raised expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Gold price movements on September 10 displayed interesting dynamics and volatility. Prices recovered to the $4,433 range on September 9 but surprisingly plummeted to the $4,313 range the next day, forming a long bearish candle that signaled heightened volatility. Gold is currently trading around $4,316 on the FXOpen chart, remaining above the 50-day moving average.

US inflation factors mainly drove the recent drop in gold prices. The US PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year in August. This data pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting up to approximately 70%.

Today, the market will focus on the release of US CPI data, which could serve as the next catalyst. Annual CPI is projected to remain at 3.4%, while year-on-year Core CPI is expected to ease slightly to 2.4%. If the CPI figures exceed expectations, speculation regarding a Fed rate hike could intensify; this could strengthen the US dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, XAUUSD could receive a significant bullish boost.

US Treasury yields are crucial for gold. The 10-year yield recently approached 5%, while the 30-year yield hovered around 5.36%. High yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, an asset that generates no yield.

Surging oil prices act as a double-edged sword for gold. The US-Iran conflict has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel. This fuels inflation, which is negative for gold due to the resulting rise in US Treasury yields and a hawkish Fed policy stance. However, an escalation in the conflict could also boost safe-haven demand for gold.

Sustained gold purchases by Asian central banks—including the PBoC—alongside demand for safe-haven assets driven by global geopolitical risks, continue to provide a key safety net for gold. Technically, the gold price is trading below the EMA200 but remains above the EMA50. The fair price range is estimated to be between $4,280 and $4,460. Immediate support is around $4,300, with the next target at approximately $4,280. Immediate resistance is around $4,390, with the next target at approximately $4,460. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

Gold's daily price action is currently above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The MA50 near the lower band shows an upward slope; the price sitting just above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, above the middle band, also shows a slight upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 73, while the VB Low reads 42; the 41-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 57 with an upward slope, indicating that bullish momentum outweighs bearish momentum.

The RSI Price Line reads 47 with a downward slope, having crossed below the MBL, which indicates a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 49 with a shallow downward slope, indicating a downtrend that is somewhat weakening.

XAUUSD H4

On the four-hour chart, the gold price is positioned below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands are widening, indicating high volatility.

The MA50, located near the middle band, is sloping downward; the price's position below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200, situated right at the lower band, reflects an upward slope—suggesting a bullish sentiment over the longer term—yet the price has broken below this line, signaling a potential shift to a bearish trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 58, while the VB Low reads 36; the 22-point spread reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 47 with a flat slope, indicating that bearish pressure outweighs bullish pressure.

The RSI Price Line is at 35 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

 

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EUR/JPY: Yen Strength and the Risk of "Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact"

EUR/JPY price movements on September 11 showed the Yen was the stronger driver, not the Euro. The pair fell, forming a long-bodied bearish candle that engulfed the previous one; on the FXOpen chart, the price recorded a high of 179.541, a low of 177.888, and a close of 178.006.

Fundamental factors for the Euro tend to be positive. The ECB recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% from the previous 2.25%. It also raised its 2027 inflation projection to 2.50% and forecast growth of around 0.9% for 2026.

Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% in August, driven primarily by a surge in energy prices. This gives the ECB strong grounds to maintain a tight policy stance; consequently, the Euro is actually finding support from the ECB's rate hikes.

The global energy crisis presents a double-edged sword for the ECB. While rising oil prices reinforce the ECB's hawkish stance, they simultaneously dampen the region's economic growth prospects.

However, the Yen has emerged as the more critical factor influencing EUR/JPY. Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates from 1.00% to 1.25% at its September 16–17 meeting. Furthermore, speculative positioning on the Yen has shifted dramatically; speculators have turned net-long on the JPY for the first time since February, indicating that the market has already begun buying the currency ahead of the BoJ's decision.

This creates a risk of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. If the BoJ raises rates by 25 basis points but issues a dovish statement, the Yen could weaken following the decision, potentially allowing EUR/JPY to rebound. Conversely, if the BoJ raises rates by 25 basis points and signals that further hikes remain on the table, downward pressure on EUR/JPY could be intense. Key factors currently drawing market attention include upcoming data releases and statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials at the September 17th meeting. The market is also monitoring oil and gas prices, as these can impact Euro purchasing power and heighten inflationary pressures. Conflicts disrupting global energy supply chains could drive safe-haven demand, thereby supporting the JPY.

From a technical perspective, EURJPY is currently in a support zone, with the RSI indicator in oversold territory. The projected price range is 175.400–180.000. Immediate support lies around 177.30, with the next target at approximately 177.000. Immediate resistance is around 179.000, with the next target at approximately 179.500. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

On the daily chart, EURJPY is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating a sharp increase in volatility.

The MA50 (near the middle band) is sloping downward, and the price is well below this line, signaling a strong downtrend. The MA200 (near the middle band) shows a gentle downward slope, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 67, and VB Low is at 22; the 45-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 44 with a downward slope, indicating that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is at 26 with an upward-curving slope, suggesting the downtrend is easing within the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 25 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

EURJPY H4

On the 4-hour chart, EURJPY is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility.

The MA50 above the upper band shows a downward slope, and the price is below this line, signaling a downtrend. The MA200, well above the upper band, shows a slight downward slope, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 44, and VB Low is at 20; the 24-point spread reflects the 4-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 32 with a flat slope, indicating that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is at 33 with a gentle downward slope, indicating a weakening downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 38 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

 

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EUR/USD leans bearish in the short term as the market reprices Fed policy

The EUR/USD major pair has trended downward for three consecutive days as the market begins to reprice Federal Reserve interest rate policy ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision. The price currently sits around 1.15499 on the FXOpen chart, showing a slight rebound from a low of 1.15232.

The USD is currently finding strong support as the market anticipates the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4.00% range at the September 15–16 meeting. Reuters notes an 85%–90% probability of such a hike. This is crucial for EUR/USD because a hawkish Fed could drive up US Treasury yields, strengthening the USD and consequently pushing EUR/USD lower. Additionally, persistent US inflation and rising oil prices have led the market to expect US interest rates to remain high for longer.

The ECB recently raised interest rates to 2.50%, and some officials have begun to signal the possibility of further hikes as European inflation faces renewed pressure from rising energy costs. Although this is positive for the Euro, interest rate differentials appear to still favor the USD. Even after the ECB's hawkish move, EUR/USD actually fell due to expectations of an even more hawkish Fed.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East are also supporting the USD as a safe-haven currency. The Middle East conflict has kept Brent crude prices around $107–$108 per barrel. Such "risk-off" conditions typically boost demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset.

Rising oil prices also pose a problem for Europe, given the region's sensitivity to energy costs. Moving forward, the market will focus on Fed rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields, oil prices, European sentiment and industrial production data, and the FOMC meeting.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently trading below the 200-day EMA. The projected price range for EUR/USD is 1.14700–1.17000. Immediate support is around 1.15300, with the next target at 1.14900. Immediate resistance is around 1.58000, with the next target around 1.63500. This forecast could be wrong.

EURUSD D1

EUR/USD's daily movement is currently below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the lower band, traces an upward channel; the price sitting just above this line indicates it is acting as dynamic support. The MA200, located just above the middle band, traces a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 48; the 23-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 60 with an upward channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 46 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 52 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

EUR/USD H4

EUR/USD's four-hour price movement is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The MA50, positioned above the middle band, traces a flat channel; the price being well below the line indicates a downtrend. The MA200, located below the middle band, traces an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 64, and the VB Low reads 30; the difference of 34 reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 47 with a downward channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 35 with a channel curving upward, indicating a trend transition toward an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 31 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

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GBP/JPY consolidates within a range ahead of UK CPI data

The GBP/JPY cross pair is currently exhibiting volatility, trading around the 208.900–209.100 level, with a daily range of approximately 208.250–209.230. The price currently stands at 209.804 on the FXOpen chart, following a previous close of around 208.262. From a technical perspective, the 207.000–207.500 zone serves as key support, while the 209.500–210.000 area acts as immediate resistance.

The fundamental outlook for GBP is complex. UK inflation remains elevated; the July CPI stood at 2.9% year-on-year (YoY), up from 2.6%. Surging oil prices could sustain inflationary pressure in the UK. Markets are even anticipating at least one Bank of England (BoE) rate hike of around 25 basis points before the end of 2026.

Today’s release of the UK’s August CPI data is crucial for GBP. If the CPI exceeds forecasts, expectations of a tighter BoE policy stance could bolster the currency. Market consensus currently projects a rise in the YoY CPI to 3.1%, up from the previous 2.9%, while Core CPI YoY is expected to remain steady at around 2.6%.

Meanwhile, the UK labor market is weakening. Payroll employment fell by 26,000 in August, and job vacancies dropped to 702,000. Regular wage growth also slowed to 3.5%. Consequently, the BoE faces a dilemma between high inflation and a softening labor market.

On the other hand, the JPY has recently experienced significant strengthening. Reuters reported that the yen has appreciated by approximately 5% in its strongest rally in 18 months, driven by growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adopt a more hawkish policy stance. USD/JPY briefly touched 152.890, marking the yen's strongest level in seven months. This is significant for GBP/JPY, as a strengthening yen typically exerts downward pressure on the pair. The greatest risk to a GBP/JPY long position at present is the possibility of rising expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike.

The market is also anticipating a decision from the Federal Reserve, which is another influential factor. Markets expect changes in US policy to impact the USD and bond yields, thereby indirectly affecting GBP/JPY sentiment. Reuters reports that oil prices exceeding $100 and inflationary pressures are pushing the Fed toward a more hawkish stance. While the direct impact on GBP/JPY is indirect, volatility in yen crosses has increased.

Global oil price dynamics and geopolitical tensions are fueling a resurgence in demand for safe-haven assets; this could bolster the yen at any moment should market sentiment deteriorate.

The daily structure of GBP/JPY shows the pair in a high-level consolidation phase, tending to trade within a range ahead of the UK CPI release. GBP/JPY is expected to trade within an intraday range of approximately 207.000–211.000. Immediate support lies around 208.200, with the next target at 207.000. Immediate resistance is near 210.000, with the next target at 211.300. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily chart, GBPJPY is above the lower Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased daily volatility.

The MA50 is above the middle band, tracing a downward channel; the price is well below this line, signaling a downtrend. The MA200 sits just below the middle band, tracing an upward channel, which indicates weakening bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 62, and the VB Low reads 21; the 41-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 42 with a downward channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 31 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend emerging from the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 26 with a flattening downward channel, suggesting the downtrend is fading.

GBPJPY H4

On the 4-hour chart, GBPJPY is below the upper Band. A Bollinger Band squeeze indicates relatively low volatility for this timeframe.

The MA50 is below the upper band, tracing a downward channel; the price sits slightly above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The MA200 is well above the upper band, tracing a downward channel, which signals bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 59, and the VB Low reads 25; the 34-point spread reflects the 4-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 40 with an upward channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, though there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 56 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 53 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.