Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Silver leans bullish but remains prone to volatility

Yesterday's price action showed silver trading within a five-day range, exhibiting a bullish bias but remaining susceptible to volatility. On the FXOpen chart, the price formed a bullish candle, recording a low of 67.616, a high of 69.710, and a close of 69.233.

Silver's fundamental outlook leans bullish yet volatile as the market awaits a speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Silver strengthened by approximately 2% from the previous session and has risen 18% throughout August; while bullish momentum is strong, the market appears relatively overextended.

A key bullish driver is the weakening US dollar—spurred by a drop in Treasury yields linked to US bond repurchase policies—which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. The rise in gold prices, breaking past the $6,400+ level, has provided a boost to silver, as the Gold/Silver ratio begins to adjust.

In the long term, a structural deficit in the physical supply of silver continues to support the price floor, despite adjustments in demand from the solar panel sector. Investment demand for precious metals remains robust, and silver also benefits from industrial needs, including in electronics and technology.

Chinese industrial data indicates that the high-tech and non-ferrous metal processing sectors are still growing strongly, even as overall industrial profit growth in China begins to slow.

Bearish factors include July PCE data showing 3.7% year-on-year inflation (with core PCE at 3.3%); persistent inflation could prompt the Fed to maintain a tight policy stance for longer. The 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at around 4.65%–4.67%. Furthermore, following an 18% gain this month, the risk of a correction has increased.

Today, the market focus is on finding clues regarding the interest rate trajectory ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole, potentially offering subtle hints about the direction of Fed policy. Technically, XAGUSD is trading below the MA200, with a projected fair range of around 66.00–70.00. Immediate support is near 68.00, with the next target around 67.00. Immediate resistance is near 70.00, with the next target around 72.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

Silver's daily price action is situated below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with relatively wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the middle band, forms a flat channel; the price trading well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located just above the upper band, forms an upward-sloping channel, signaling bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 70, and the VB Low reads 33; the 37-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 52 with an upward slope, indicating that bullish momentum outweighs bearish pressure.

The RSI Price Line reads 64 with an upward-curving trajectory, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 65 and is sloping upward, signaling an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, silver is trading near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with narrow spacing, indicating sideways movement and lower volatility.

The MA50, positioned just below the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel; the price trading above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located well below the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel, signaling bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 75, and the VB Low reads 47; the 28-point spread reflects the H4 volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 61 with a flat trajectory, indicating that bullish momentum outweighs bearish pressure.

The RSI Price Line reads 56 with an upward-curving trajectory, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 53 with an upward-curving trajectory, signaling an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY volatility likely to rise throughout the week

Last week, the safe-haven USD/JPY pair exhibited high volatility. The USD strengthened against the JPY, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. On August 28, USD/JPY formed a bullish candle on the FXOpen chart, recording a high of 160.203, a low of 159.294, and a close of 160.203.

The USD's rise last week was driven by the Fed's hawkish stance, which led the market to reconsider the possibility of a rate hike in September following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike was reported at around 57%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, surged from 99.098 to 99.726 in response to Warsh's speech. However, the market is now awaiting US labor data; Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report will be a key factor in determining whether these Fed expectations hold firm.

Elevated US bond yields continue to maintain the US dollar's appeal against the yen through carry trade dynamics.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen has found support in domestic inflation data. Tokyo Core CPI for August rose to 1.8% year-on-year, up from the previous 1.7% and exceeding the 1.7% forecast. Tokyo inflation excluding food and energy reached approximately 2.0%. These conditions reinforce speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates at its September 17–18 meeting.

The most critical factor for the JPY is the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities. Japan reportedly spent approximately 15.4 trillion yen (USD 96.5 billion) to support the yen between July 30 and August 26. With the JPY once again approaching the 160 level, the risk of Japanese intervention or statements from the Ministry of Finance is rising. Consequently, a USD/JPY rise above 160 could make "buy" positions highly risky.

This week, traders will be watching for these key factors. The release of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Shifts in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rhetoric—specifically any hawkish signals or threats of market intervention—could trigger a sudden correction in USD/JPY. There is a strong positive correlation between US bond yields and USD/JPY; rising yields could push the pair above the 160.50 level.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is trading below the 50-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA. The estimated fair price range for USD/JPY is 157.800–161.000. Immediate support lies at 159.300, with the next target around 158.300. Immediate resistance is near 160.500, with the next target around 161.300. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY movement is situated below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating decreased volatility but with a persistently high bias.

The MA50 sits above the upper band, tracing a slight downward channel; the price being below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 sits below the middle band, tracing an upward channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and the VB Low reads 25; the 44-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 47 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 53 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 47 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating a sudden increase in volatility that disrupts the Bollinger Band squeeze structure.

The MA50 sits below the middle band, tracing a flat channel; the price being above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 sits above the upper band, tracing a downward channel, which indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, and the VB Low reads 45; the 21-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 66, tracing an upward channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 69 with a channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 64 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY Caught Between Two Sentiment-Driving Forces

The EUR/JPY cross-rate is exhibiting movement dynamics characterized by a high-level consolidation phase, driven by the clash of two major sentiments regarding hawkish interest rate stances from both the ECB and the BoJ. Yesterday, EUR/JPY formed a bullish candle on the FXOpen chart—with a low of 184.921, a high of 185.627, and a close of 185.556—reversing the previous bearish candle formation. Over the past seven days, EUR/JPY price action has largely remained within the 184.921–186.015 range.

On the Yen side, there are expectations of a BoJ rate hike. The market is aggressively pricing in a 57% to 85% probability that the BoJ will raise its benchmark interest rate at the September meeting. Statements from BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino did not refute this speculation and highlighted inflation risks stemming from high energy prices.

The conflict in the Middle East, which is driving up global energy prices, has forced Japan to take decisive action to prevent further depreciation of the Yen. Previous joint market interventions with the US were deemed ineffective, making an interest rate hike the primary option. Notably, on August 31, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that Japan would take measures to strengthen the Yen and hinted at the possibility of a BoJ rate hike in September.

On the Euro side, rising inflation trends are fueling the potential for an ECB rate hike. The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate increase by the ECB at the upcoming September 10 meeting. Eurozone inflation is projected to creep toward the 3.0% range due to energy costs, providing the Euro with a solid footing to withstand pressure from the Yen. German inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year in August (up from 2.8%), while core inflation held steady at 2.4%. The increase was driven primarily by energy costs, thereby reinforcing expectations of a rate hike. While inflation is fueling expectations of interest rate hikes, concerns regarding stagflation or a collapse in European manufacturing are limiting any sustained rally in the Euro. Eurozone inflation data is of critical importance today; the calendar highlights the August flash CPI/HICP as a key data point for the EUR. Higher-than-expected inflation could potentially strengthen the Euro.

Technically, EURJPY is trading above the 200-day EMA, with an expected trading range of 184.000–186.500. Immediate support lies around 185.100, with the next target at approximately 184.500. Immediate resistance is around 185.800, with the next target at approximately 186.300. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

The daily EUR/JPY movement is currently situated between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. The bands form a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating sideways movement and high market volatility.

The MA50, positioned above the middle band, traces a flat channel; the price's position above this line indicates an upward trend. The MA200, located just below the lower band, traces an ascending channel, signaling bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, while the VB Low reads 35; the 32-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 51 with a flat channel, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 57 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 58 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

EUR/JPY H4

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY is trading near the middle band. A Bollinger Band squeeze forming on this timeframe indicates sideways movement with very low volatility.

The MA50 near the middle band traces a horizontal channel; the price's proximity to the line indicates sideways movement. The MA200, positioned just below the lower band, traces a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 65, while the VB Low reads 41; the 24-point spread reflects the H4 volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with a descending channel, indicating that while bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 51 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 45 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD leans bearish as the USD gains support from Fed rate hike expectations.

The GBP/USD major pair displayed bearish momentum on Monday. On the FXOpen chart, the pair formed a bearish candle, recording a low of 1.35059, a high of 1.35593, and a close of 1.35122. The fundamental bias is currently bearish in the short-term intraday timeframe, driven primarily by USD strength resulting from rising Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

The Iran-US conflict has once again pushed up oil prices and heightened inflation risks. Higher oil prices are fueling market concerns that US inflation will remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.77%, while the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September hovers between 66% and 68%, providing strong support for the USD. Although the August ISM Manufacturing Index dipped from 55.6 to 54.6, the prices-paid index remained high at 71.1, indicating that while activity has slowed slightly, inflationary pressures remain robust.

July JOLTS job openings rose to 7.271 million, even as hiring activity softened. The market continues to view the US labor market as strong enough to allow the Fed to maintain its tight monetary policy.

The UK economy is showing some signs of resilience; recent GDP figures indicate growth of 0.3% month-on-month and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann has observed signs of growth and inflation running slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting a potential rate hike before the year ends.

However, the UK manufacturing sector is slowing, and mortgage approvals have dropped significantly. The 10-year gilt yield has reached 5.25%—its highest level since 2008—reflecting substantial fiscal pressure.

Markets are currently awaiting Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, attempting to determine whether the Fed will indeed raise interest rates this month. Upcoming labor market data could drastically alter these expectations. Other key areas of focus include US Treasury yields, oil prices, US labor data ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, comments from Federal Reserve officials, UK inflation and the Bank of England's stance, and US-Iran geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, GBPUSD is currently trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200). The estimated fair price range is around 1.34000–1.37000. Immediate support lies near 1.35000, with the next target around 1.34600. Immediate resistance is near 1.36000, with the next target around 1.36500. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPUSD D1

The daily GBP/USD movement is positioned just below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, located just above the lower band, traces an upward channel; the price sitting above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, also just above the lower band, traces a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 44. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 57 with a downward-sloping channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, though there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 48 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBP/USD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBP/USD is positioned above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a downward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, located just below the upper band, traces a channel curving downward; the price sitting well below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200, located below the lower band, traces a shallow upward channel, indicating fading bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 54, and the VB Low reads 25. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 39 with a downward-sloping channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 27 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend within the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 32 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Bullish USD/CHF approaching resistance zone

Price action in the safe-haven USD/CHF pair shows interesting dynamics; while fundamentals lean bullish, the pair is approaching a resistance zone. USD/CHF reached a high of 0.81566 before pulling back to the 0.81309 range on the FXOpen chart. The pair has been gradually rising from a low of 0.79497 since August 20, reaching levels last seen in mid-August.

Factors supporting USD strength include market expectations for a Fed rate hike this September, which have risen to around 65% due to persistently high US inflation and hawkish Fed commentary. The Federal Reserve currently maintains its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, and US Treasury yields remain high.

However, labor market data is beginning to show signs of weakness. The August ADP report showed a gain of only 38,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 48,000, which has capped USD gains. Elevated US Treasury yields continue to support the USD, driven largely by inflation concerns stemming from rising energy prices and the US-Iran conflict.

Swiss inflation data due today is critical. The consensus forecast for August CPI is +0.5% year-on-year (YoY) and 0% month-on-month (MoM), compared to previous figures of +0.4% YoY and -0.1% MoM. Higher-than-expected Swiss inflation could strengthen the CHF by limiting the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) scope for loose monetary policy. Conversely, weak inflation would likely weaken the CHF and provide an additional boost to USD/CHF.

Traders are focused on Swiss CPI data and evolving expectations regarding Fed interest rates. With the US Non-Farm Payrolls report due tomorrow, USD/CHF volatility is likely to increase as traders adjust their positions ahead of the release. The weak ADP figure has made the upcoming NFP report even more significant.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF retains bullish momentum but is nearing a resistance zone. Daily indicators—including moving averages and various oscillators—continue to support further gains. The intraday range is estimated at 0.80750–0.81600. Immediate support is around 0.81200, with the next target near 0.86000. Immediate resistance is around 0.81500, with the next target near 0.81600. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCHF D1

Daily USDCHF is currently moving between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The MA50, positioned above the middle band, forms a horizontal channel; the price remaining above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located below the lower band, forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 65, and VB Low reads 39; the 26-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 52 with a downward-sloping channel, implying that bullish weighting outweighs bearish weighting, though there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 57 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 50 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCHF H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCHF price is moving between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, positioned above the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel; the price remaining above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located below the middle band, forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 72, and VB Low reads 50; the 22-point difference reflects the H4 volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 61 with an upward-sloping channel, implying that bullish weighting outweighs bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with a channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 69 with a channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY faces sharp selling pressure due to a major shift in BoJ expectations

The GBP/JPY cross has experienced significant selling pressure over the past two days, dropping from around 216.586 to 209.958. Current live data on the FXOpen chart shows the rate hovering around 210.653, indicating bearish short-term momentum.

The Yen is under strong bullish pressure—meaning the currency is strengthening—after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently signaled that a September rate hike is being considered. The BoJ currently maintains rates around 1%, with the next meeting scheduled for September 17–18.

A key driver of this Yen strength is the market increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25%. A previous Reuters survey indicated that the majority of economists anticipate such a hike in September.

The Yen has appreciated rapidly over the last two days; according to Reuters, it rose more than 2% against the USD, while speculation regarding Japanese government intervention further boosted demand for the JPY. If expectations for a BoJ hike continue to rise, it will support the JPY, potentially pushing the GBP/JPY pair lower.

The GBP is not entirely bearish, however. The BoE still faces relatively high inflation; Chief Economist Huw Pill has stated that rate hikes are necessary to prevent inflationary pressures from becoming entrenched. While the market assigns a low probability (around 15%) to a September hike, the chance of a hike in November stands above 70%.

UK interest rates, currently around 3.75%, remain far above Japan's, meaning the GBP structurally retains a carry-trade advantage over the JPY. Nevertheless, current JPY momentum outweighs the support the GBP derives from carry-trade dynamics.

Today, the market will focus on a speech by BoE Governor Bailey and UK Construction PMI data. Meanwhile, US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) could influence the USD, risk sentiment, and bond yields—thereby indirectly affecting GBP/JPY.

Weak US employment figures could heighten expectations for Fed easing, pressure the USD, and shift risk sentiment, potentially amplifying volatility in the GBP/JPY pair. From a technical perspective, GBPJPY is trading below the EMA200. The projected main trading range is 208.000–213.500. Immediate support is around 208.500, with the next target near 206.500. Immediate resistance is at 213.500, with the next target around 214.500. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

The daily GBPJPY movement is below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands are widening, indicating increased volatility.

The MA50 is positioned above the middle band with a flat trajectory; the fact that the price is below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 is above the lower band and trending upward, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, and the VB Low reads 30; the 36-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 48 with a downward slope, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 26 with a sharp downward slope, indicating a downtrend within the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 43 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be widening, indicating a strong increase in volatility.

The MA50 is above the middle band with a slight downward slope; the price is well below this line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 sits just below the MA50 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 63, and the VB Low reads 12; the 41-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 37 with a downward slope, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 14 with an upward-curving slope, indicating a downtrend within the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 13 with an upward-curving slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD maintains a bullish bias but remains highly volatile.

On Friday, September 4, US crude oil prices closed at 89.51, trading within the 87.15–90.19 range on the FXOpen chart. The candlestick formed a bearish pattern but featured a long lower wick, indicating downward pressure met by a strong push to rebound.

The primary driver of current oil prices is the risk of supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker data indicates that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

Escalating US-Iran military tensions and threats to tanker operations in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil supplies—have fueled fears of physical disruptions to oil distribution, thereby adding a significant risk premium to oil prices.

The OPEC+ meeting on September 6 resulted in a decision to maintain existing production quota policies for October. This delay in increasing production quotas provides price support from the supply side.

US commercial crude oil inventories have recently continued to fall below historical averages, signaling robust domestic refinery consumption. Conversely, oil prices face headwinds from potential demand destruction caused by soaring energy costs and signs of a global economic slowdown.

Traders are currently focused on developments regarding the US-Iran conflict and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as these factors could trigger sudden, sharp price spikes or drops. The DXY (US Dollar Index) is also a key focus; significant USD strengthening could weigh on USD-denominated commodity prices like XTI/USD.

Stock and cryptocurrency market sentiment offers clues about "risk-on" or "risk-off" moods, which can influence liquidity flows into energy commodities. High volatility impacts trading potential and risk, requiring traders to exercise caution when adjusting position sizes and leverage.

From a technical perspective, WTI oil prices are currently trading above the 200-day EMA. The estimated fair price range for today is $87.00–$96.00. Immediate support is around 90.00, with the next target near 88.50. Immediate resistance is around 93.00, with the next target near 95.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

Current daily WTI price action is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands show a slightly bullish bias with a relatively wide band spread, indicating slightly bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the middle band, traces an upward channel; the price remaining well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 sits right at the lower band, tracing a relatively flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, and the VB Low reads 43; the 24-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 55 with a flat channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with a flat channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 59 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 chart, WTI is currently near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating fading bullish sentiment and a decrease in volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the lower band, traces a slight upward channel; the price remaining above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, also below the lower band, traces a slight upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 76, and the VB Low reads 49; the 27-point spread reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 63 with a flat channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 55 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY is showing significant selling pressure.

Recent analysis of AUD/USD indicates high market volatility. On September 7, AUD/JPY fell sharply from a high of 112.606 to the 111.256 area, closing at 111.416 on the FXOpen chart. The bearish candlestick formed reflects strong selling pressure on the AUD/JPY cross pair.

Factors supporting the AUD: Several reasons bolster the Australian dollar. Australia's inflation in July reached 3.5%, exceeding the RBA's target and raising the likelihood of an interest rate hike.

Australia's second-quarter economic growth was also stronger than expected, with an annual growth rate of 2.1%. Market expectations for an RBA rate hike have risen, with some economists even forecasting a move to 4.60%. The RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.5% during its August meeting.

Although AUD fundamentals remain bullish, factors from Japan are providing stronger support for the JPY. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled strongly that an interest rate hike in September is under consideration. The market has almost fully priced in the possibility of a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on September 17–18.

Additionally, the Yen has recently strengthened sharply, pushing USD/JPY down to around the 154 level—its lowest point since February. JPY appreciation is also being driven by the unwinding of carry trades and the potential repatriation of Japanese capital. This is significant for AUD/JPY, as the pair is sensitive to carry trade dynamics. While Australian fundamentals are positive for the AUD, the shift in expectations regarding the BoJ is currently far more aggressive.

Technically, AUD/JPY breaks down the 200-day EMA. The projected trading range is likely between 110.000 and 113.40. Immediate support lies around 111.20, with the next target near 110.50. Immediate resistance is around 112.60, with the next target near 113.000. This forecast could be wrong.

AUD/JPY D1

The daily AUDJPY movement is currently below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the middle band, traces a flat channel; the price remaining below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200, located below the lower band, traces an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 33; the 38-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 52 with a downward channel, implying that bullish weighting outweighs bearish weighting, though there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 38 with a downward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a sharp downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 52 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

AUDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDJPY is trading above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a downward channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, situated below the upper band, traces a downward-curving channel; the price is well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The MA200, positioned above the middle band, tends to trace a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 58, and the VB Low reads 17; the 41-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 36 with a downward channel, indicating that bearish weighting outweighs bullish weighting.

The RSI Price Line reads 27 with a shallow downward channel, indicating the trend is in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 30 with a slight downward channel, indicating a weakening downtrend.

 

[radex78]

The Canadian dollar is finding support from surging oil prices.

Current USDCAD price action shows high volatility with a neutral-to-bearish fundamental bias in the short term; however, there is a risk of a USD rebound should US inflation heat up again. On the FXOpen chart, the USDCAD pair formed a bearish candle on September 8, with a high of 1.38154, a low of 1.37596, and a close of 1.37822. The Canadian dollar is bolstered by the Bank of Canada's hawkish tone, while the USD remains in consolidation ahead of key inflation data releases.

Oil prices have surged toward the $98–$100 per barrel range due to geopolitical tensions; this is positive for the CAD, given Canada's status as a major energy exporter. Global oil price fluctuations amidst geopolitical dynamics are influencing sentiment toward the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.

In its September 2026 decision, the BoC maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. However, the bank highlighted elevated inflation risks stemming from global energy price volatility and trade tariff uncertainties. Markets have begun pricing in the possibility of a rate hike in the fourth quarter, which is limiting USDCAD gains.

Canadian labor data showed a decline of 41,700 jobs—far below the expected gain of 15,000—while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%. Although the labor market has loosened slightly, inflation remains stubborn, keeping the CAD volatile.

US-Canada trade tensions also pose a significant risk to the CAD; US tariffs and Canadian retaliatory measures could potentially weigh on Canada's economic growth.

US employment data was robust, showing a gain of 162,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. This has raised expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy. UBS even forecasts 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes in both September and December. However, market opinion remains divided, as comments from Christopher Waller suggest the Fed could hold rates steady if inflation continues to cool. Friday's US CPI release stands as the week's most significant catalyst. Hot CPI data could strengthen the USD, while cooling CPI data could put the USD under pressure.

Technically, USDCAD is trading below the EMA200. The projected fair price range for USDCAD is 1.37200–1.38300. Immediate support is around 1.37500, with the next target near 1.37200. Immediate resistance is around 1.38200, with the next target near 1.38600. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

The daily USDCAD price movement is currently positioned just above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are forming a downward channel with slightly narrowing bands, indicating bearish sentiment and declining volatility.

The MA50 is tracing a downward channel, with the price well below the line, signaling a downtrend. The MA200 is tracing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 51, and the VB Low reads 27; the 24-point difference reflects the daily volatility.

The Market Base Line reads 39 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 39 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 41 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCAD H4

The 4-hour USDCAD price movement is currently moving between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands are forming a downward channel with slightly narrowing bands, indicating bearish sentiment and declining volatility.

The MA50 is tracing a slightly downward channel, with the price well below the line, signaling a downtrend. The MA200 is tracing a downward channel far above the upper band, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 62, and the VB Low reads 28; the 34-point difference reflects the 4-hour volatility.

The Market Base Line reads 45 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 36 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 39 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices surge to $94.42 per barrel

WTI Crude Oil prices are showing strong bullish momentum driven by the conflict in the Middle East. The XTIUSD pair is currently trading in the $94–$97 per barrel range. On FXOpen charts, WTI oil stands at 94.29, extending a two-week rally.

The US-Iran conflict serves as the primary catalyst for the bullish market. Tensions have reignited, and oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply. Attacks on tankers and energy facilities have heightened the risk of further supply disruptions. Brent crude has even reached $100 per barrel. High insurance costs for tankers continue to support prices in the spot market.

Global oil supplies are tightening. The EIA projects a continued depletion of global oil inventories. The agency also raised its average price forecast to approximately $84.65, citing supply disruptions caused by the conflict. Meanwhile, institutions like Goldman Sachs have increased their price forecasts due to expectations that supply disruptions in the Gulf will persist through the end of the year.

OPEC+ is holding back production increases. On September 6, OPEC+ decided to maintain its October production policy, meaning there is no significant additional supply to immediately offset disruptions in the Middle East. Logistical disruptions resulting from the conflict are limiting actual market volumes. Additionally, a decline in US oil inventories is keeping prices at elevated levels.

China acts as a factor tempering price increases. There are concerns regarding weakening demand from China. Sinopec projects that China's demand will fall by approximately 8.9% by 2026, primarily due to reduced gasoline and diesel consumption. This serves as a bearish factor for oil.

Other bearish factors: The latest available US inventory data shows a rise of about 2 million barrels in US crude stocks, which is normally a bearish signal. However, the influence of geopolitics and supply disruptions currently outweighs this factor.

Technically, XTIUSD is trading well above the EMA200. The price range is expected to be between $88.50 and $97.40. Immediate support lies around $92.50, with the next target near $89.70. Immediate resistance is around $95.50, with the next target around $96.50. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

Daily WTI crude oil price movement is currently above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, positioned between the lower and middle bands, traces an upward-curving path; the price remaining well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 sits right at the lower band, tracing a slight upward slope, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, and the VB Low reads 43; the 24-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 55 with an upward slope, meaning bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 69 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend approaching the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line reads 65 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The four-hour WTI crude oil price is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The MA50, positioned above the lower band, traces an upward slope; the price remaining well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 sits well below the lower band, tracing a flat path, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and the VB Low reads 52; the 17-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 61 with a flat slope, meaning bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 68 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend approaching the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line reads 64 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.