Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/JPY Slumps to 157.869 Amid Strong Suspicions of Japanese Intervention

Market sentiment for the safe-haven USD/JPY pair has turned bearish following a sharp appreciation of the Yen in previous trading. USD/JPY had previously reached highs above the 163.900 level. However, during yesterday's session, the pair plunged to a low of 157.969 on the FXOpen chart before rebounding around the 155.526 mark.

Markets are still digesting the FOMC decision, and there is strong speculation that Japanese authorities have intervened once again to prop up the Yen. The Yen surged nearly 3% in a single day, sparking rumors of government currency intervention; although unconfirmed officially, the market has become far more cautious about buying USD/JPY at elevated levels.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its interest rate decision today, with expectations that the central bank will maintain rates at 1.00%. Traders are primarily focused on the tone of Governor Kazuo Ueda's statement. If the tone is hawkish regarding inflation or the Yen, USD/JPY could weaken further; conversely, a dovish stance could trigger a rebound.

While the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, markets are beginning to doubt the likelihood of further hikes, thereby reducing support for the USD. Three FOMC members cast dissenting votes, favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike. The Fed's continued vigilance regarding inflation—driven largely by energy price fluctuations and tariff issues—has kept US yields resilient, preventing a deeper decline in the USD.

Although the US-Japan interest rate differential still favors the USD, expectations that US rates have peaked are coinciding with the extreme rally seen in USD/JPY. Volatility in Middle East oil prices acts as a dual catalyst: fueling inflation in the US while simultaneously increasing the burden of energy imports for Japan. Key factors to watch today include whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises its inflation projections or provides clearer signals regarding the next rate hike. The post-FOMC movement of US bonds is also a focal point that could influence buying interest in the USD.

Markets will also monitor international crude oil price developments driven by Middle East tensions; as a net energy importer, Japan sees the Yen remain sensitive to this source of volatility.

Technically, USD/JPY rebounded after touching the 200-day moving average (MA); the pair is projected to trade within a daily range of 156.80–160.40. Immediate support lies around 157.80, with the next target at 156.80. Immediate resistance is around 159.80, with the next target at 160.50. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY is positioned below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average sits above the lower band, tracing a flat upward channel; the fact that the price is below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-day moving average lies below the lower band, tracing an upward channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 79, and the VB Low reads 48. The 31-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 62 with a downward slope, implying that bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, yet there is downside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 30, showing a sharp downward slope that has crossed below both the MBL and the Trade Signal Line (TSL); this indicates a sharp downtrend and oversold conditions.

The Trade Signal Line reads 57 with a sharp downward slope, having crossed below the MBL, indicating a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is positioned outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating very high volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the middle band, tracing an upward channel that is curving downwards; the price is well below this line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies below the 50-period MA, tracing an upward channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 87, and the VB Low reads 28. The 59-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 58 with a downward slope, implying that bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, yet there is downside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 13 with a sharp downward slope that is beginning to flatten, indicating that the sharp downtrend is starting to ease, while remaining in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 31 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY drops sharply, driven by a combination of intervention and central bank policy

The GBP/JPY cross-rate exhibited dynamic movement and a sharp shift during the weekend trading session. Over two days, the pair fell precipitously from the 218.584 range, plunging to 211.844 before closing at 212.127, according to FXOpen charts. A combination of foreign exchange intervention and central bank policy dynamics drove this sharp decline.

The Japanese government, through the Ministry of Finance, launched a large-scale intervention to buy the Yen and curb its depreciation. This triggered a sudden strengthening of the Yen against most major currencies. The rapid appreciation sparked a mass unwinding of positions in JPY carry trade strategies; high-yield pairs like GBP/JPY were the primary casualties of this sell-off.

Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained interest rates at 1.00% during its July 31, 2026 meeting, the board signaled a readiness to raise rates further should inflation risks escalate.

On July 30, 2026, the Bank of England (BoE) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. A decline in UK inflation to 2.6% dampened expectations for further BoE rate hikes, causing the GBP's momentum to fade against the strengthening Yen.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a focal point. As both the UK and Japan are oil importers, rising oil prices could fuel inflation, potentially prompting the BoE to keep rates high for longer or even raise them further to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.

A surge in oil prices could weaken the JPY due to high demand for US dollars among Japanese oil importers. However, the conflict also fuels global risk-off sentiment, supporting demand for the JPY as a safe-haven asset.

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), which could serve as a dynamic support level. The estimated fair price range for the GBPJPY pair today is around 210.50–216.00. Immediate support is in the 211.80 range, with the next target at 210.50. Immediate resistance is in the 214.80 range, with the next target at 216.00. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the GBPJPY pair is positioned below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the lower band, tracing a gently rising channel; however, the price trading below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies well below the lower band, tracing an upward channel, which indicates a bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71, while the VB Low reads 40. The 31-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 55 with a downward slope, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, despite the potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 34 with a steep downward slope, crossing both the MBL and the Trade Signal Line (TSL), indicating a strong downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with a downward slope, crossing the MBL, indicating a downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

GBPJPY price action on the H4 timeframe shows highly volatile dynamics. The price is currently below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the middle band, tracing a downward channel; the price trading well below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies below the middle band, tracing an upward channel, but the price crossing below this line indicates a transition from bullish to bearish.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 59, while the VB Low reads 27. The spread of 32 reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 43 with a downward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 31 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 32 with a flat slope, indicating a fading downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI trades below $80 amid delayed attack

Oil prices saw sharp fluctuations on Monday, opening with a gap down. XTI/USD opened at 77.79, gap down from Friday's close of 85.17. Currently, the price is hovering around 78.77 on the FXOpen chart, showing a slight rebound following the initial drop.

WTI prices fell sharply after news emerged that a planned US attack on Iran had been called off, reopening the possibility of negotiations. This reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had previously driven prices higher.

OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas by approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September. Although the impact is not yet immediate due to distribution disruptions in the Middle East, the market views this as a factor that could increase future supply. Conversely, the risk of oil supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz continues to support prices, suggesting that a sustained decline is unlikely if tensions escalate.

Fluctuating US oil inventory data, occurring amidst the peak driving season in the Northern Hemisphere, is providing technical support at the nearest support level.

Prospects for diplomatic stability and potential improvements in oil distribution flows in the Gulf region are easing concerns regarding a supply crisis. Monetary policy signals and a strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) are triggering short-term selling pressure on USD-denominated commodities.

Traders are focusing today on the latest news regarding the Middle East conflict, US dollar (DXY) movements, shifts in global sentiment, and oil demand expectations.

Technically, WTI oil prices remain above the 200-day moving average. The projected fair price range for today is $75.00–$82.30. Immediate support is around 77.00, with the next target at 75.00. Immediate resistance is around 81.50, with the next target at 82.30. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, WTI oil prices are positioned above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average, located near the middle band, forms a downward-sloping channel; the price trading below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average, situated below the middle band, forms an upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 68, while the VB Low reads 20. The 48-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 44, with an upward-sloping channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight and that there is upside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 51 with a channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 54 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, XTIUSD is positioned near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average, located between the middle and upper bands, forms a flat channel; the price trading significantly below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average, situated below the lower band, forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, while the VB Low reads 32. The 23-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 43 with a downward-sloping channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 40 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 42 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD in a pause phase following the previous week's upward push

The EUR/USD major pair is consolidating within the 1.15000–1.15345 range. This movement reflects a consolidation phase following the upward push seen the previous week. On the FXOpen chart, the price is currently showing a low of 1.15020, a high of 1.15340, and a close of 1.15322.

Fundamental factors influencing EUR/USD movements include Eurozone sentiment; the Euro has strengthened, supported by economic growth data showing the Eurozone's best quarterly performance in the past year. This has dampened expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the ECB in the near term.

Regarding the US Dollar (DXY): The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%—albeit amidst internal policy disagreements—has exerted psychological pressure on the USD. Traders are scrutinizing the future interest rate outlook while awaiting further US economic data this week. Market participants are also positioning themselves ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, which has the potential to increase volatility.

Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 99.867, down slightly from the 100.068 level. From a technical perspective, the DXY is trading below the 100-day Moving Average (MA), indicating a correction from peaks above the 101 level.

Key triggers drawing trader attention this week include the release of Services PMI data and US labor market data (NFP); these could prompt a rebound in EUR/USD or cause the decline to continue.

Movements in US bond yields are also a focal point, particularly changes in the 10-year US Treasury yield, which is sensitive to inflation expectations and the direction of Fed interest rates. Additionally, global geopolitical developments in the Middle East could potentially drive demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.

Tensions between the US and Iran could flare up at any moment. Over the past week, the US briefly postponed a major airstrike on Iran to allow room for mediation. However, both sides have been mobilizing their militaries to the highest level of readiness. Trump stated that indirect communication for negotiations was being pursued at the urging of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Conversely, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has firmly denied the existence of direct negotiations with the US. Tehran maintains that current communication is limited to Oman and concerns technical maritime matters in the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently trading below the 200-day EMA. The projected fair price range is 1.14400–1.15900. Immediate support is around 1.15000, with the next target in the 1.14400 range. Immediate resistance is around 1.15650, with the next target in the 1.15900 range. This forecast could be wrong.

EURUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, EURUSD price action is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, reflecting increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average (positioned above the middle band) traces an upward channel; the fact that the price is above this line reflects a shift to an uptrend. The 200-period moving average (positioned above the upper band) traces a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 59, while the VB Low reads 26. The 33-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 43 with an upward channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, despite the potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 62 with a shallowly rising channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 58 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

EURUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD price action is situated between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating decreased volatility.

The 50-period moving average (positioned below the lower band) traces an upward channel; the price being well above this line reflects an uptrend. The 200-period moving average (positioned below the MA50) traces a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 74, while the VB Low reads 47. The 27-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 60 with an upward channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 62 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 59 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY shows signs of a rebound following the Yen's sharp appreciation

The AUD/JPY cross-rate is displaying interesting price action. Over the past two days, the pair has formed bullish candles and traded within the 111.100–111.350 range; the current price on the FXOpen chart hovers around 111.339. AUD/JPY had previously plunged to a low of 109.238 following intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance to curb the Yen's weakness.

AUD/JPY movements are driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting on August 11. Although inflation is beginning to slow, the RBA is in no rush to cut rates, providing support for the AUD; however, the potential for a strong rally remains limited in the absence of massive global "risk-on" sentiment.

Meanwhile, the BoJ has held its benchmark interest rate at 1.00% following gradual hikes. BoJ officials continue to signal a hawkish stance regarding periodic rate increases. The narrowing interest rate differential between Australia and Japan has triggered a "carry trade" unwinding, placing technical downward pressure on AUD/JPY. While the impact of Japan's intervention cannot be considered fully over, signs suggest that its influence is beginning to fade.

Unless intervention is accompanied by fundamental shifts—such as aggressive rate hikes by the BoJ—markets often revert to their previous trends within days or weeks. Traders are focusing on whether the BoJ will actually raise rates at its next meeting; if expectations for a hike strengthen, the JPY could appreciate again without the need for further intervention.

As long as RBA interest rates remain higher than those in Japan, investors are likely to continue buying AUD and selling JPY, meaning AUD/JPY has the potential to strengthen again once the pressure from the intervention subsides. Traders should also monitor statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials regarding potential interest rate hikes, the possibility of further Japanese government intervention in the forex market, US bond yield movements that could affect capital flows into the Yen, and economic data from Australia or China that could influence the AUD outlook.

From a technical perspective, AUDJPY is trading above its 200-day moving average, reflecting bullish sentiment. The projected fair value range for the AUDJPY pair is 110.00–112.20. Immediate support lies around 111.00, with the next target at approximately 110.70. Immediate resistance is around 111.80, with the next target at approximately 112.20. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDJPY is positioned above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies near the middle band, forming a flat channel; the price remaining below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits below the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, and the VB Low reads 30; the 36-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 48 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 39 with an upward-curving channel, indicating a potential trend reversal to bullish.

The Trade Signal Line reads 37 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

AUDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDJPY price action is situated between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating declining volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies above the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel; the price remaining below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits above the 50-period MA, forming a downward-sloping channel, which indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 50, and the VB Low reads 21; the 29-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 36 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 48 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 46 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF trades between 0.80600 and 0.81260 ahead of US data releases

The safe-haven USD/CHF pair is displaying interesting price dynamics leading up to today's US economic data releases. Yesterday, the pair rose, forming a long-bodied bullish candle and snapping a two-day losing streak. According to the FXOpen chart, the price surged from a low of 0.80579 to a high of 0.81359, crossing above the middle band.

Today, the market will focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. ADP Payrolls data—which slowed to 44k against expectations of 70k—along with recent jobless claims figures, have weighed on the US dollar, dampening speculation regarding further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. If the NFP data comes in weaker than expected, USD/CHF risks facing further selling pressure; conversely, a strong NFP figure could trigger a dollar rebound. The Fed remains cautious following its decision to hold interest rates steady. Expectations for further rate hikes have cooled alongside falling energy prices.

Swiss inflation for July unexpectedly eased to 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.5% and sitting at the lower bound of the 0%–2% price stability target. This reinforces expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain interest rates at 0%, naturally limiting the Swiss Franc's appreciation potential from an interest rate perspective.

Progress on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route agreement between Iran and Oman has eased concerns regarding a global energy supply crisis. Falling oil prices have reduced commodity-driven inflation risks and dampened demand for safe-haven assets.

Key factors for traders today include the release of US NFP and average hourly earnings data. Traders will also closely monitor movements in 10-year US Treasury yields; a decline in US yields could trigger a weakening in USD/CHF. Traders are also keeping a close watch on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz; an official announcement finalizing the Iran-Oman agreement could further boost "risk-on" sentiment in global markets.

From a technical perspective, USDCHF is currently trading above the 50-day moving average, with a projected price range of 0.79270–0.82150. Immediate support lies around 0.80090, with the next target at approximately 0.79270. Immediate resistance is around 0.81030, with the next target at approximately 0.82160. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCHF D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCHF is trading above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range-bound movement and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits just above the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel; the price is above this line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-period moving average lies well below the lower band, forming a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 46; the 25-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 58 with a downward-sloping channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line reads 50 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 45 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDCHF H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDCHF pair is trading above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with expanding spacing, indicating sideways movement with rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel; the price remains above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-period moving average sits above the middle band, forming an upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 56, and the VB Low reads 31; the 25-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 43 with an upward-sloping channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line reads 59 with a gently sloping upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold recorded strong gains during last week's trading session.

On August 8, 2026, gold prices maintained strong bullish momentum following significant gains the previous week, when they traded within the $4,340–$4,390 range. Prices surged from a low of $4,229 to a high of $4,371, according to FXOpen charts.

The rise in gold prices was driven by key fundamentals, specifically a cooling US economy and shifting interest rate expectations. Slowing US employment data—including subdued ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls figures—indicated a weakening labor market. These conditions discouraged the Federal Reserve from maintaining high interest rates, thereby exerting downward pressure on US bond yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Escalating conflicts and the risk of disruptions along major trade routes in the Gulf region—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—continue to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Factors such as central bank diversification, gradual purchasing (especially by China), and renewed institutional capital inflows into gold-backed ETFs have provided a solid foundation for prices.

A key factor for traders today is the anticipation of upcoming inflation (CPI) and jobless claims data; figures exceeding estimates could trigger a strengthening of the DXY and a brief correction in gold prices.

A strong negative correlation persists between the DXY and 10-year US bond yields; as long as the DXY consolidates or weakens, the upward momentum for XAU/USD remains dominant. With prices nearing resistance levels, many traders are opting to wait for confirmation of a retest at the demand zone rather than buying at the peak.

Technically, the gold price has crossed above the 50-day EMA but remains below the 200-day EMA. The projected price range is $4,290–$4,440 per troy ounce. Immediate support lies around $4,290, with the next target near $4,200. Immediate resistance is around $4,378, with the next target around $4,441. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, XAUUSD is positioned above the upper band line. The Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the upper band, tracing a downward-sloping channel; the fact that the price is above this line indicates an uptrend. The 200-period moving average sits well above the upper band, tracing a gently sloping upward channel, which indicates weakening bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 57, while the VB Low reads 30. The 27-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with an upward-sloping channel; this implies that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 54 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, gold is trading below the upper band line. The Bollinger bands form an upward-sloping channel with expanding bandwidth, indicating bullish sentiment accompanied by high volatility.

The 50-period moving average is above the lower band, tracing an upward-sloping channel; the price is well above this line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-period moving average sits right at the lower band, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 82, while the VB Low reads 41. The 41-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 61 with an upward-sloping channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 78 with a gently sloping upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 72 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

Silver Bullish but Remains Volatile

The XAG/USD metal commodity pair is currently displaying interesting price dynamics, characterized by a bullish bias but high volatility. The price is hovering around $65.72 on the FXOpen chart, following a move from approximately $61.16 to $66.10 on August 10.

Several bullish factors are driving the rise in silver prices. Weaker US labor data has pushed down US bond yields and weakened the USD, providing positive support for silver. Beyond its role as a precious metal or safe-haven asset, industrial demand is also providing a boost. A persistent physical supply deficit remains a long-term structural factor.

Industrial demand—particularly for solar panel production and electrical infrastructure in Asia—is significant; notably, China's silver ore imports surged by 62.5% year-on-year.

Tensions in the Middle East are also bolstering demand for safe-haven assets. Issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz maritime route and crude oil price fluctuations are keeping the safe-haven status of precious metals like gold and silver relevant.

Alongside these bullish factors, traders are also anticipating bearish risks. The gains over the last few sessions have been sharp, creating significant potential for profit-taking and a possible pullback. Silver tends to be more volatile than gold; should the DXY or US bond yields strengthen suddenly, XAG/USD could experience a rapid decline.

US CPI data is the primary focus this week; inflation exceeding expectations could drive US yields back up, thereby pressuring XAG/USD. June CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.5% year-on-year and core inflation at 2.6%.

Key considerations for traders this week include anticipating Wednesday's US CPI data and monitoring US bond yield movements. Risk management regarding leverage is also crucial, with traders remaining wary of sudden sell-offs or technical corrections before the CPI release.

From a technical perspective, the silver price is currently trading above the 50-day EMA, signaling a shift in trend direction. Silver prices are expected to range between $63.50 and $70.00. Immediate support is around $63.50, with the next target in the $62.80 range. Immediate resistance is around $66.00, with the next target in the $70.00 range. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, silver is trading above the upper band. The expanding Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility alongside bullish sentiment.

The 50-period moving average sits below the lower band, forming an upward channel; the price trading above this line indicates an uptrend. The 200-period moving average lies well above the upper band, forming a flat channel and indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 56, while the VB Low reads 27. The 29-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 41 with an upward channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is upside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 54 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the silver price is above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits below the lower band, forming an upward channel; the price trading well above this line indicates an uptrend. The 200-period moving average lies below the MA50, forming a flat channel and indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 78, while the VB Low reads 51. The 27-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 64 with an upward channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 73 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend within the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 69 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices extend gains amid supply disruption concerns

XTI/USD price action shows a bullish trend accompanied by rising volatility. WTI oil is currently trading around the $82.15 level on the FXOpen chart, extending gains for a fourth consecutive day after hitting a low of 73.81 on August 5.

Market sentiment is dominated by uncertainty regarding global energy distribution routes in the Middle East, particularly issues surrounding tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns over potential supply disruptions are providing strong upward momentum for oil prices.

In its latest report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for the average WTI price in 2026 to $80.88 per barrel, up from the previous estimate of $76.26. This establishes a bullish foundation for the medium term.

Monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC are due for release today. The OPEC report reflects caution regarding adjustments to global oil demand growth, though this is balanced by production limits or adjustments from OPEC+ members.

Today's release of U.S. core CPI data—expected at 2.5% year-over-year—could directly impact the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies. A strengthening USD could weigh on oil prices, as USD-denominated commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies; conversely, a weaker USD would provide a boost to oil prices.

A key fundamental factor for traders today is the upcoming U.S. crude oil inventory data. The consensus forecast predicts a 1.3 million barrel decline in stocks. Additionally, U.S. inflation data will influence perspectives on Federal Reserve interest rate expectations; looser economic policy tends to support economic growth and fuel demand. Traders are also monitoring for any sudden news regarding the Strait of Hormuz or an escalation in conflict, as such events could trigger an immediate spike in volatility.

From a technical perspective, the oil price is trading above the 50-day EMA, indicating an upward trend. The projected fair price range for WTI oil today is between $77.00 and $84.00. Immediate support is around $80.00, with the next target near $78.50. Immediate resistance is around $82.80, with the next target in the $83.50 range. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the WTI oil price is positioned above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands show a slight upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating a somewhat bullish sentiment accompanied by high volatility.

The 50-day moving average sits below the lower band, tracing a slight downward channel; however, the price remaining above this line indicates an upward trend. The 200-day moving average is positioned above the lower band, tracing a slight upward channel, which indicates a bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 68, while the VB Low reads 25. The 43-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 47 with an upward channel; this implies that while bearish weight currently outweighs bullish weight, there is potential for a bullish move.

The RSI Price Line reads 53 with an upward channel, indicating an upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 47 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil price action is situated below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands display an upward channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits below the middle band, tracing a flat channel; the price is positioned well above this line, indicating an upward trend. The 200-period moving average lies below the MA50, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, while the VB Low reads 29. The 38-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 48 with an upward channel; this implies that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 62, showing a channel curving upwards, which indicates an upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 64 with a shallowing upward channel, indicating a fading upward trend.

 

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NZD/USD exhibits a neutral-to-bearish bias

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair is currently displaying price dynamics with a neutral-to-bearish bias. Yesterday, NZD/USD formed a bearish candle, reflecting USD strengthening; the price fell from around 0.58853 to a low near 0.58545. It is currently trading around 0.58589 on the FXOpen chart, situated within the support zone that marked the lower boundary of the previous week's price action.

While the short-term outlook leans neutral-to-bearish, the trend is not yet strongly bearish, as expectations regarding RBNZ policy continue to provide support for the NZD. The RBNZ's Official Cash Rate (OCR) stands at 2.50%, while the latest annual inflation rate was 4.1%—well above the 2% target—keeping the market attentive to the possibility of tighter RBNZ policy. However, recent labor market data has been weak; New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to a more-than-decade high, limiting the RBNZ's room to raise interest rates.

As a major trading partner of China, New Zealand is affected by China's economic growth challenges, which are weighing on key New Zealand commodity exports such as dairy and timber. This has contributed to negative sentiment toward the NZD.

The USD remains a primary factor influencing NZD/USD movements. US CPI data released yesterday showed inflation slowing to 3.4% year-on-year (YoY) and core inflation at 2.3% YoY. While this briefly checked the DXY's rise, it did not trigger a sharp USD decline, as the market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Relatively high US bond yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support the USD's status as a safe-haven asset.

Global risk sentiment is a key focus for the market today, given the NZD's high sensitivity to market sentiment. If market sentiment is "risk-on" or stock markets rally, the NZD/USD pair has the potential to strengthen. Conversely, if sentiment shifts to "risk-off," the market tends to favor the USD.

Following the release of US CPI data, the market is turning its attention to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly US jobless claims, which could clarify the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. As a commodity currency, the NZD is also influenced by commodity price trends; global oil and dairy product prices can impact the currency.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading above the 200-day EMA. The projected price range for NZD/USD is 0.5930–0.5890. Immediate support lies around 0.5825, with the next target at 0.5780. Immediate resistance is around 0.5890, with the next target at 0.5950. This forecast could be wrong.

NZD/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD price action is currently above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands show a gently rising channel with wide band spacing, indicating that bullish sentiment is somewhat fading, even though volatility remains high.

The 50-period moving average sits above the lower band, tracing a flat channel; the price being well above this line indicates an uptrend. The 300-period moving average lies below the middle band, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 71 , and the VB Low reads 37. The 34-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 54 with an upward-sloping channel, meaning bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 56 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 60 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD price action is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands show a flat channel with moderate band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and moderate volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the middle band, tracing a gently rising channel; the price being below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies well below the lower band, tracing a rising channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 61, and the VB Low reads 42. The 19-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 52 with a downward-sloping channel; this means bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, though there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 41 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 44 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.