Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Silver under pressure due to Fed policy and easing geopolitical tensions

Silver prices recently drew bearish candles for two consecutive days following the FOMC meeting, which reflected the Fed's hawkish stance. Silver prices fell to a low of 65,065 from a previous high of 69,850. Silver is currently hovering around 65,813 on the FXOpen chart, hovering between the middle and lower bands.

Silver's current price movement is influenced by a combination of the US central bank's meeting results and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The June 17, 2026, FOMC meeting, led by Kevin Warsh, delivered a rather hawkish surprise to the market. Although the benchmark interest rate was maintained in the 3.50%-3.75% range, economic projections, or Dot Plots, show that nine of the 18 Fed officials support at least one more rate hike in 2026 due to persistent inflation in the service sector. The prospect of higher interest rates for longer has triggered a strengthening of the US dollar to a new high this year, which has directly put pressure on non-yielding assets like silver.

From a geopolitical perspective, the easing of the US-Iran conflict has reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The recent announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire has successfully eased inflation concerns fueled by oil prices. Falling crude oil prices have eased short-term inflation expectations. Because silver also functions as an inflation hedge, the easing of these concerns has led to a temporary outflow of capital from the precious metal.

However, beyond this week's macroeconomic sentiment, silver's physical fundamentals are actually very solid. According to the World Silver Survey 2026, silver is in its sixth consecutive year of experiencing a global supply deficit of approximately 46.3 million ounces this year due to high absorption in the AI, data center, semiconductor, electric vehicle, and solar panel industries.

The dominance of the strong US dollar following this week's FOMC release has been the main driver of silver's price decline, negating the positive side of its physical supply deficit.

Technically, XAGUSD has experienced a sharp correction in recent sessions, falling from above $70 to around $65 after breaking through the 200-day moving average (MA) at $68.99. For today's trading, the forecasted silver price range is around $63.30-$70.00. The nearest support is around $65.50, with the next target around $63.50. The nearest resistance is around $68.80, with the next target around $70.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price movement on the daily timeframe is currently between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating short-term bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment, with short-term bearish pressure remaining dominant.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 62, and the VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 39 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 39 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel, with the price below the line indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term, with bearish sentiment currently dominating.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 69, and its VB Low indicator is at 37. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 35, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD bullish consolidation in the upper area

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair trended bullish last week. The Canadian dollar reached its weakest level in 14 months at around 1.41831, according to the FXOpen chart. Currently, the US dollar holds considerable sway over the Canadian dollar, driven by several key macroeconomic factors.

The market has just digested the results of the June FOMC meeting. Under the leadership of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the US central bank adopted a very hawkish stance. The median interest rate projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8%. Market speculation and Fed Fund Futures are even starting to factor in a potential 25 basis point rate hike in the second half of this year to curb persistent inflation.

The Fed's projected rate increase sent the 2-year US Treasury yield soaring to around 4.19%, widening the interest rate differential between the US and Canada and making USD-denominated assets more attractive relative to CAD.

This Monday, the market will focus on a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller for policy guidance. However, the market's primary focus will be on Thursday, when the US PCE and final Q1 GDP data are released.

On the other hand, Canada continues to face economic growth challenges. Canadian real GDP unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Canadian core inflation slowed to its lowest level in five months. These contrasting economic conditions with the US leave the Bank of Canada with little room to raise interest rates.

Commodity and geopolitical factors. Although oil prices received some support from the dynamics of tensions in the Middle East, this was not strong enough to significantly lift the CAD. The CAD is often vulnerable in situations of global uncertainty due to its dependence on global economic growth and trade. The recent weakening of oil prices has reduced support for the CAD. Coupled with trade issues, the commencement of the review of the UMSCA trade pact, with contradictory rhetoric from Washington, has also overshadowed the Canadian economic outlook and weighed on CAD movements.

Today's market is also awaiting the release of the Canadian CPI. If inflation is lower than expected, the CAD could weaken further, potentially leading to USD/CAD gains. Conversely, higher inflation could provide temporary support for the CAD.

Technically, USDCAD is currently moving near the upper limit of its yearly range. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.41000-1.43500. Immediate support is around 1.41000, with the next target around 1.40500. Immediate resistance is around 1.42000, with the next target around 1.42500. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD price movement on the daily timeframe indicates bullish sentiment. The price is within the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flatter channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 86, and the VB Low is at 48. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 66 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 87 within an ascending channel, indicating an oversold uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 82 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is moving near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 83, and the VB Low is at 49. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 66 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 68 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 75 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

New Zealand Dollar Under Pressure from Central Bank Policy Divergence and Global Risks

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline on Monday, hovering in negative territory around 0.57090 on the FCOpen chart. The NZD/USD pair reached its lowest level since April 8th amid broad USD strength.

Overall, the NZD/USD pair is under short-term bearish pressure due to central bank policy divergence and global risks. Although the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the June FOMC meeting, the latest Doy Plot, or economic projections, shows that almost all FOMC members still expect at least one more rate hike this year. This hawkish stance has strengthened US Treasury yields and supported the USD.

The New Zealand economy is actually showing improvement, with first-quarter GDP growth of 0.8%, beating market annual estimates. Although the labor market is solid with job growth, the rising participation rate has kept labor supply outpacing demand. Consequently, wage pressures remain benign at 2% annually. This suggests the RBNZ will be slow to raise interest rates, limiting the NZD's appeal. Although some RBNZ officials remain concerned about inflation, New Zealand's economic growth is not yet strong enough, leading the market to reduce expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

The New Zealand dollar is one of the commodity currencies vulnerable to global risks. The NZD was also pressured by the release of Chinese retail sales data for May, which missed expectations, falling 0.6% annually. Meanwhile, the easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran regarding the initial agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz temporarily improved risk appetite in global markets. However, the more dominant strength of the USD continues to pressure the NZD lower.

Technically, the NZDUSD is well below its 50-day moving average (MA), indicating a strong bearish momentum. The estimated fair price range for the NZDUSD is estimated at around 0.56600-0.58200. The nearest support is around 0.57000, with the next target around 0.56600. Immediate resistance is around 0.57700, with the next target around 0.58200. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is near the lower band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is directly above the middle band, forming a flat channel and indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 34. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 47 within a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 33 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 38 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

The kiwi is currently below the middle band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the upper band, while price is well below it, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, forming a flat channel and indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 53, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 25. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 40 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bearish sentiment than bullish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 31 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 33 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY Moves to 40-Year High

The strengthening US dollar is putting further pressure on the Japanese Yen, which has hit a 40-year low. USD/JPY is moving up to a new high around 161.928. The current price is at 161.589 on the FXOpen chart, a slight correction from its peak.

The current USD/JPY price movement is driven by the divergence of US and Japanese central bank policies and the threat of market intervention. The strengthening US dollar is supported by the Fed's hawkish stance. Under Kevin Warsh's leadership, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, a surprise hawkish turn was made. The latest dot plot indicates that the majority of FOMC members support at least one rate hike by the end of the year. This has sent the US Dollar Index soaring.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan recently raised its interest rate to 1.00%, a 25 basis point increase from the previous 0.75%. However, the market believes this increase is not strong enough to narrow the wide interest rate differential with US interest rates. As a result, carry trade activity, selling yen to buy USD, remains massive in pursuit of yield.

The recent weakening of the JPY has increased the risk of foreign exchange intervention. Levels above 161.00 have panicked Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama recently held intensive communication with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to confirm their readiness to coordinate market intervention if the yen's movements are deemed too wild. This speculation is the only thing holding back the current USD/JPY bullish momentum.

Investors are currently tending to wait and see, awaiting the release of important US inflation data, particularly the Core PCE Price Index, due later this week, for clues on the Fed's next policy direction.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly eased following the US-Iran peace agreement. However, contentious issues remain at the negotiating table in Switzerland. President Trump claimed Iran agreed to high-level nuclear inspections by the UN. However, Iran has stated that it will not allow UN inspectors to visit its bombed sites. There is also disagreement over the billions of dollars in funds disbursed by the US.

Iran is also trying to pressure the US to force Israel to withdraw its troops from Lebanon as part of a comprehensive agreement. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly still loosening Israel's defense controls in the region.

The dramatic developments in the US-Iran war have had a complex impact on the Japanese yen. As an oil importer, Japan benefited from falling oil prices. However, fading safe-haven sentiment has caused investors to start dumping the yen. Global funds are being diverted back to higher-yielding assets such as the USD.

Technically, the USD/JPY is currently above its 200-day moving average (MA), reflecting long-term bullish sentiment. The USD/JPY is estimated to be in a reasonable range of around 160.00-162.80. Immediate support is around 160.80, with the next target around 160.00. Immediate resistance is around 162.00, with the next target around 162.80. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen's movement on the daily timeframe is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a horizontal channel; prices above the line indicate bullish momentum. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, forming an upward channel and indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 71, and its VB Low is at 48. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with an upward channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 70 with a slightly flattened channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 68 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY price movement on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating lower volatility, although market sentiment remains bullish.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band represents an upward channel; prices well above the line indicate bullish momentum. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, representing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 73, and its VB Low is at 49. The 24-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The RSI Price Line is at 57, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold price breaks below $4,000 as USD hits 13-month high

Current gold price dynamics stand in stark contrast to the situation earlier in the year. Gold is currently under significant bearish pressure and has broken below the $4,000 mark—a key psychological level for the metal.

On Wednesday, gold formed a long-bodied bearish candle, extending a five-day losing streak. Yesterday, the price ranged from a high of $4,114 to a low of $3,959 on the FXOpen chart, breaching the previous low of $4,023 set on June 11.

The primary downward pressure on gold stems from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance; the market is even beginning to price in the possibility of an interest rate hike at the September meeting. With US interest rates currently at 3.50%–3.75%, these rising expectations have driven a sharp rally in US bond yields and the USD, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, climbed as high as 101.880 before correcting to 101.571. This marks the highest level for the DXY since June 2025, representing a significant breakout. The USD's strength directly weighs on dollar-denominated commodities like gold, making them more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold's decline has also been fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices. News regarding stabilization or peace agreements has reduced the "safe-haven premium" that previously supported gold prices. Meanwhile, the cooling of global oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns, giving central banks more flexibility regarding restrictive monetary policies. The breach of the psychological $ 4,000-per-troy-ounce level over the past seven months triggered further technical selling by speculators, deepening bearish sentiment for gold. Ongoing outflows from gold ETFs indicate that some institutional investors are reducing their exposure to the metal.

The factors currently supporting gold prices are robust buying by global central banks, which limits the potential for a further sharp decline. Although moving average indicators currently signal bearish dominance, momentum indicators suggest gold has entered oversold territory; this could trigger a technical rebound, warranting close monitoring.

The projected price range for gold is approximately $3,900–$4,080. Immediate support lies near $3,951, with the next target around $3,920. Immediate resistance is near $4,000, with the next target around $4,077. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

Gold's movement on the daily timeframe is currently outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with widening bands, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day MA (positioned below the upper band) traces a downward channel; the price is well below this line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day MA (positioned just below the 50-day MA) traces an upward channel, yet the price sits below the line, signaling a shift to a bearish trend despite the indicator suggesting a bullish stance over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 50, and the VB Low reads 29. The 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Baseline reads 40 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 31 with a downward slope, crossing the TSL from above, which indicates a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 37 with a downward curve, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

Gold's movement on the H4 timeframe is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with expanding bands, indicating bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-period MA (positioned just below the upper band) traces a downward channel; the price is well below this line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-period MA (positioned well above the upper band) traces a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term for this timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 23. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Baseline reads 39 with a downward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 23 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 27 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBPJPY rises toward 213.726 amid contrasting central bank policies in Japan and the UK

Yesterday, the GBPJPY cross pair formed a long-bodied bullish candle, moving from a low of 212.641 to a high of 213.736 on the FXOpen chart. Over the past six days, GBPJPY has largely traded within the 212.209–214.671 range, reflecting volatile dynamics driven by policy divergences between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE).

At its June 16, 2026, meeting, the BoJ unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%, up from 0.75%—marking the highest rate level since 1995. According to the latest "Summary of Opinions" released yesterday (June 25), policymakers openly support gradual rate hikes every few months toward a neutral level of around 2% to contain secondary inflation risks. Expectations for further rate hikes fundamentally support the JPY in the long term.

In contrast, the BoE’s policy stance differs significantly from Japan's. At its June 18, 2026, meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, citing a loosening labor market, signs of weakening domestic demand in the UK, and falling global energy prices. These factors have dampened the GBP rally, as the market begins to discount the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the BoE.

Falling crude oil prices—driven by progress in US-Iran peace negotiations—have eased global inflationary pressures, theoretically creating room for the market to reconsider short-term carry trades. However, the BoJ's hawkish rhetoric acts as a brake on overly aggressive GBPJPY gains. Fundamentally, the medium-term bias for GBPJPY is shifting toward gradual JPY strengthening as the interest rate differential narrows. However, GBPJPY is expected to undergo healthy consolidation today, with a tendency to remain range-bound.

The Japanese government continues to favor growth-oriented monetary policy, suggesting that any strengthening of the Yen will likely be gradual rather than aggressive. Recent JPY weakness still carries the risk of government intervention should the currency depreciate too rapidly.

From a technical perspective, GBPJPY is showing signs of consolidation at higher levels after moving up from a daily low near 212.84. Meanwhile, the price currently sits below the 50-day moving average—which acts as dynamic resistance—in the 213.939 range.

The projected price range for GBPJPY today is 212.80–213.70. Should market volatility increase during the New York session, the range could widen to 212.10–214.20. Immediate support lies around 212.80, with the next target at 212.10. Immediate resistance is around 213.70, with the next target at 214.20. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY price action is currently below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with slightly widening bands, indicating range-bound movement and potential for increased volatility.

The 50-period MA sits just below the middle band, forming a flat channel; the price is below this line, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-period MA lies well below the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 60, while the VB Low reads 41. The 19-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 50 with a flat channel, implying the price is within a neutral zone.

The RSI Price Line reads 46, showing an upward slope as it crosses the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 44 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways bias.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY price action is positioned right at the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with slightly narrowing bands, indicating range-bound movement and potential for decreased volatility.

The 50-period MA is below the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel; the price is below this line, indicating a bearish trend. The 200-period MA sits just below the upper band, forming a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, while the VB Low reads 34. The 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with an upward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 49, curving downward, indicating that the uptrend is fading.

The Trade Signal Line reads 48 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold price rebounds from weekend correction low

Gold prices rebounded to the $4,095 level—closing at $4,089—after a sharp correction that saw them drop to a low of $3,949, according to FXOpen charts. The strength of the US dollar has caused gold prices to fall approximately 19% from their peak following a sharp rally in early January 2026.

Gold prices hit a peak of $5,597 in early January before correcting down to $4,402 in early February. Prices surged again to reach $5,418 in early March, then corrected once more to $4,099 towards the end of the month. Prices briefly rebounded to around $4,888 in mid-April but came under renewed pressure, correcting to $3,949 last week.

This decline in gold prices is linked to the strengthening US Dollar Index, as gold is denominated in USD. The US Dollar Index has strengthened over the past two months, breaking above the 101 level; some analysts view a DXY reading above 100 as a bullish signal.

The market is currently contending with a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Sustained high US interest rates are weighing on gold prices. Since gold is a non-yielding asset, high US bond yields make it less attractive to short-term investors.

Regarding global geopolitical risks, uncertainty—particularly concerning the draft US-Iran peace agreement and navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz—continues to act as a buffer against a deeper drop in gold prices, alongside demand from global central banks. Concrete progress toward a peaceful resolution could cause the risk premium on gold to shrink rapidly, potentially triggering downward pressure. However, as long as the situation remains unresolved, safe-haven demand continues to support gold.

The data focus for today is relatively light, featuring the release of the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. However, volatility is projected to rise mid-week with the release of PMI data, JOLTS labor market figures, and—most notably—the US unemployment rate report for June.

Gold is currently trading around the $4,089 level. Significant price movement is expected today as the market tests a crucial support area following a correction from its highs. Gold is anticipated to trade within a range of $3,950–$4,200. Immediate support lies near $4,000, with the next target around $3,960. Immediate resistance is near $4,120, with the next target around $4,200. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, gold prices are positioned above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day MA sits below the upper band, tracing a downward channel; the fact that the price is well below this line indicates a strong downtrend. The 200-day MA is on the verge of intersecting with the 500-day MA—tracing an upward channel—which suggests bullish sentiment over the longer term, even though the current price remains under downward pressure.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 48, and the VB Low reads 29; the 19-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 39 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 34 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 34 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, gold prices are situated between the upper and middle bands. The Bollinger Bands show a downward channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment alongside potentially decreasing volatility.

The 50-period MA sits above the upper band, tracing a downward channel, with the price currently below the line but attempting to approach it. The 200-period MA lies well above the upper band, tracing a downward channel and indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 49, and the VB Low reads 23; the 26-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 36 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 52 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 44 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

The Pound Sterling strengthened after Burnham's assurances reassured investors.

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced unusual trading conditions yesterday. The Pound Sterling rose more sharply than in the preceding four days, with the pair forming a long-bodied bullish candle showing almost no wicks. Prices ranged from a high of 1.32624 to a low of 1.31906, closing at 1.32596 on the FXOpen chart. This rise reflected significant strength in the Pound Sterling, even as other pairs tended to consolidate.

GBP/USD attempted a rebound after falling to an annual low of 1.31405 last week. The interplay between UK political sentiment, key economic data releases, and global geopolitical dynamics has been the primary driver for the pair.

The Pound initially faced volatility following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. However, sentiment stabilized after Andy Burnham—a candidate to succeed him—delivered a speech that reassured investors regarding the importance of fiscal discipline and regional growth. Burnham stated he would adhere to the fiscal rules established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, thereby paving the way for economic progress. His emphasis on fiscal discipline boosted investor confidence and supported the GBP, which subsequently rose toward the 1.32000 level, forming a higher low.

Today, the market awaits the final release of UK Q1 economic data. An upward revision could provide an additional bullish boost for the GBP, whereas stagnant or lower figures might see the downward trend continue.

The market currently views the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy as being in a freeze, with no immediate plans to raise or cut interest rates. This lack of policy-driven catalysts has limited the scope for the Pound to strengthen independently.

The sharp USD rally seen in recent weeks—driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance—has begun to ease. With the Fed Chair scheduled to speak at the ECB forum tomorrow, market participants are inclined to take profits, thereby slightly alleviating the pressure on the GBP. The agreement to pause hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz last weekend and the planned resumption of peace talks in Doha today have reduced demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset, supporting a rebound for the GBP.

The market will focus on today's US JOLTS data release; if US labor demand remains resilient, the USD could strengthen again.

Technically, GBP/USD is trading below the 50-day moving average. The projected fair price range for today is approximately 1.31900–1.33000. Immediate support is around 1.31950, with the next target in the 1.31400 range. Immediate resistance is around 1.3320, with the next target in the 1.3370 range. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD price action is situated below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day MA (positioned below the upper band) forms a descending channel; the fact that the price is well below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-day MA (positioned below the 50-day MA) forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 52, and the VB Low reads 32. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 42 with a descending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 43 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 36 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD price action is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an ascending channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period MA (slightly above the middle band) forms a descending channel; the price being above this line indicates an upward trend. The 200-period MA (well above the upper band) forms a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 58 and the VB Low reads 30. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with an ascending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with a flattening ascending channel, indicating that the uptrend is losing momentum.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY extends gains, nearing the 186.315 peak

The EUR/JPY cross-currency pair is displaying interesting price dynamics. The pair has risen for five consecutive days, reflecting the Japanese Yen's weakness against the Euro. The price currently hovers around the 185.725 level on the FXOpen chart, up from a low of 184.635 during Tuesday's trading session.

EUR/JPY price movements reflect a fierce tug-of-war between easing inflation in the Eurozone and the threat of market intervention by Japanese authorities.

On the Eurozone front, inflation is cooling, easing pressure for a hawkish stance. German CPI data released yesterday showed a decline to 2.3% year-on-year, down from the previous 2.5%. Germany's HICP index also fell to 2.4%. The easing of inflation in Europe's economic powerhouse provides an early indication that inflation across the Eurozone is also cooling.

These moderating inflation figures reduce pressure on the ECB to adopt an overly aggressive stance going forward. Market expectations for further interest rate hikes are very limited, generally capping the Euro's potential for appreciation.

Regarding the Japanese Yen, there are threats of verbal intervention and the risk of actual market action. EUR/JPY touched a high near 185.74 yesterday. The Yen's excessive weakness has triggered alarm bells in Tokyo. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Khara have again issued stern warnings that they are prepared to take action in the forex market to stabilize the Yen's movements.

The threat of currency intervention has caused investors to hold back, limiting aggressive buying of EUR/JPY due to the high risk of a sudden price reversal triggered by such intervention. Meanwhile, Japan's core inflation remains at 1.4%—below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) target—meaning the BoJ is in no rush to drastically raise interest rates.

At the ECB forum held in Sintra, Portugal, from June 29 to July 1, 2026, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled a crucial shift, stating that the ECB's monetary policy has returned to fundamental principles. The current focus is on controlling inflation via benchmark interest rates, eliminating the need for the non-standard emergency instruments—such as massive post-pandemic asset purchases—used previously.

Lagarde emphasized that the ECB no longer needs to act aggressively. Any future interest rate cuts or adjustments will be implemented gradually and cautiously, remaining highly dependent on economic data released ahead of each meeting.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY pair is currently in overbought territory on the daily chart and is being constrained by psychological barriers due to the risk of intervention. EUR/JPY is expected to trade within a range of approximately 183.80–186.20. Immediate support lies around 184.50, with the next target at 183.40. Immediate resistance is around 185.80, with the next target in the 186.20 range. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, EURJPY price action is currently situated between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and relatively high volatility.

The 50-period MA, positioned just above the middle band, is sloping downward; however, price has crossed above it from below, signaling an uptrend. The 200-period MA lies well below the lower band and is sloping upward, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 60, and the VB Low reads 39; the 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 49 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 57 with an upward slope, having crossed above the TSL and MBL from below, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 45 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURJPY price action is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period MA sits below the middle band, tracing a flat, downward-sloping path, while the price remains well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-period MA is positioned above the 50-period MA and traces a flat path, suggesting sideways or range-bound movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and the VB Low reads 26; the 43-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 47 with an upward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 67 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend that is approaching overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 63 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices drop sharply following reports of US-Iran talks

Oil prices are currently exhibiting interesting dynamics, driven by a major shift from geopolitical sentiment to concerns over abundant supply. WTI crude is trading around $68.05 on the FXOpen chart, marking a decline of approximately 30%—the steepest drop since 2020.

This bearish sentiment is primarily driven by significant progress in indirect talks held in Doha, Qatar, between Iranian officials and a US delegation led by Jared Kushner and Steve Wytkoff. These negotiations aim to de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

After being disrupted by mutual attacks last weekend, tanker shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are recovering rapidly. This has allowed oil supplies previously bottled up in the Persian Gulf to flow back into the global market.

Iran reports exporting over 40 million barrels of oil since the US eased its naval blockade. Additionally, sustained record-high output from Russia and the US has led to a sharp surge in floating oil inventories.

However, Iran continues to insist on maintaining independent regulatory control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—a stance opposed by the US and its Western allies. This unresolved political tension is preventing oil prices from falling significantly below the $65 mark.

Separately, reports indicate a 3.8-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories, suggesting that domestic demand remains robust. The summer season in the US typically boosts fuel consumption, further limiting the extent of the price decline.

From a technical perspective, the XTIUSD daily chart remains dominated by a bearish trend, with the price trading below the 50-day moving average. The forecast for WTI crude today places the price within a $65–$72 range; immediate support lies near $68.00, with the next target around $67.20. Immediate resistance is around $69.80, with the next target around $70.80. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the WTI oil price is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies between the upper and middle bands, tracing a downward channel; the price is well below this line, signaling a strong downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits between the middle and lower bands, tracing a slight upward channel, which suggests that bullish sentiment is weakening over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 34; the 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 39 with a downward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 27 with a downward slope, indicating that the downtrend is in oversold territory.

The Trade Signal Line reads 38 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands show a slightly downward channel with narrow spacing, suggesting the price is tending to move sideways with low volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the upper band, tracing a downward channel with the price below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-period moving average is well above the upper band, tracing a downward channel and indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 51, and the VB Low reads 25; the 26-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 38 with a flat slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 35 with a downward slope, crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 38 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.