Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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BTC/USD Analysis, September 15, 2025

Bitcoin's price movement for three consecutive days has tended to remain within a narrow range, reluctant to extend the previous three days' gains. On Sunday, BTCUSD drew a small bullish candle, resembling a Doji candle, indicating an indecisive market. The price formed a high of 116224, a low of 115237, and a close of 115793. This price movement is near the upper band line.

BTC's price movement is heavily influenced by market sentiment, global macroeconomic news, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin's own fundamental factors.

Historically, September is known as "Red September" because Bitcoin tends to experience corrections. However, data shows that in September 2025, this sentiment was less affected, and Bitcoin's price reportedly experienced a fairly stable upward trend.

Institutional adoption appears to be continuing to increase, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have reportedly absorbed significant liquidity ($50 billion by July 2025). Furthermore, accumulation activity by large investors, often referred to as "whales," has reached a new record, indicating potential buybacks if market momentum rebounds.

Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut this week have created positive macroeconomic sentiment. Risk-on sentiment is created because these expectations could weaken the USD. This condition has historically benefited high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

The market is awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision this week. US inflation data that met expectations and a surge in unemployment rates have sparked signals of looser policy, which is a positive factor for Bitcoin.

The rise in gold prices and the weakening of the USD are due to the potential for a Fed interest rate cut. Gold and Bitcoin are often considered hedge assets, so a rise in gold can be a positive indicator for similar assets like Bitcoin. Although sometimes, when gold prices rise, Bitcoin prices correct, indicating a pattern of capital flows in the adoption of both.

Geopolitical risks. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, along with tensions in the Middle East, has impacted global oil prices and raised concerns about France's credit rating, indicating global economic uncertainty. Amid this uncertainty, alternative assets like Bitcoin are often sought by investors as a safe haven.

Crypto events in September 2025 are filled with various important events, such as Bitcoin Week Bali and ETHTokyo. These events can boost positive sentiment, encourage adoption, and trigger price volatility due to new project announcements or regulatory discussions.

Several symposia, including one in London, discussed pro-crypto regulations that could stimulate institutional capital inflows. Clear and positive regulatory developments are always a strong fundamental factor for the future of crypto.

In conclusion, Bitcoin currently has a fairly strong foundation. Positive factors such as increasing institutional adoption, whale accumulation, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and risk-on sentiment in global markets could drive price increases.

However, caution should be exercised regarding volatility triggered by macroeconomic announcements and geopolitical changes, as well as the volatile nature of the crypto market itself. So crypto investments are speculative.

BTCUSD D1

The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 52, indicating Bitcoin's price is on a neutral path. However, this figure has risen from its previous low of below 50, indicating increased investor interest in crypto assets.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is within the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with potential for upside. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 60, and the VB Low is at 35. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 within the flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 59, with the upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56, with the upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

BTCUSD H4

The Bitcoin price on the H4 timeframe is between the upper and middle bands. Here, the Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) along the same line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term. There is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 51. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 59 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

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Gold's unstoppable movement hits a new all-time high again

Gold prices appeared to rise significantly during Monday's trading session, again hitting a new all-time high for the 2025 price movement. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. Gold prices reached a high of $ 3,685, a low of $ 3,626, and closed at $ 3,678 on FXOpen's platform. Gold prices are targeting $ 3,700 per troy ounce.

There are several key fundamental drivers of the gold price increase. Market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the FOMC monetary policy meeting on September 6-17 have increased demand for gold and supported the rally. The US dollar has also tended to weaken, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. US Treasury yields, especially long-term ones, have also reportedly fallen in recent times, further supporting gold.

The US economy is in a mixed state, with inflation remaining quite high, particularly in the housing and energy sectors. The labor market is showing some weakness, with jobless claims rising. These data strengthen the argument that the Fed will adopt a more lenient policy stance going forward. However, persistently high inflation remains a risk, suggesting the Fed will be cautious in easing interest rates.

Global central banks in several countries are reportedly still actively buying gold to increase reserves as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Amidst the risks of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset. It appears that market expectations for an interest rate cut are currently quite high, causing investors to buy gold on rumors and may sell after the official decision. This calls for caution.

Several analysts project a more optimistic long-term gold price outlook. Goldman Sachs and UBS both have optimistic projections for gold prices for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Some projections suggest the potential for gold to break through the $3,700 level in the near future and even reach $3,900-$4,000 per troy oz by the end of the year or mid-2026.

Fundamentally, sentiment towards the XAU/USD gold price is currently bullish. The prospect of a Fed rate cut, supported by weaker US economic data, is a key driver. Gold is also considered a safe-haven asset amidst global economic uncertainty and demand from central banks.

However, risks remain. Traders need to monitor the official FOMC announcement, with the content of the dot-lot statement and forward guidance crucial. Movements in US bond yields, if yields rise sharply, could pressure gold prices. Unexpected geopolitical changes, or political or fiscal pressure on the Fed, could impact market confidence. Alternatively, a situation that causes the US dollar to rise again could be a headwind for gold.

Price movements are expected to increase leading up to and after the Fed's interest rate announcement, depending on data releases and the Fed's statement at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 81, and its VB Low indicator is at 38. The difference of 43 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 79 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 79 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, reflecting increased volatility after the price successfully crossed the key level of 3664.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 79, and the VB Low shows a value of 49. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 68 with a flat channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 61 with an ascending channel, indicating a market uptrend.

 

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GBP/USD hovers near the upper band after the Fed's interest rate cut

The market responded to the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. The GBP/USD price briefly rose sharply, crossing the upper band at 1.37299. However, shortly after, the price plummeted to 1.36247, then fluctuated and closed at 1.36252. Yesterday, the GBP/USD price finally drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the top of the candle. This indicates that after strong upward pressure, substantial selling pressure pushed the price down, and it closed lower than the opening price.

The Fed finally decided to cut interest rates, marking the first cut this year, in line with market expectations. The cut was made in response to a weakening US labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025, its highest level in four years. The Fed has indicated that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials' median view for the final interest rate in 2025 is 3.6%. This indicates the Fed is adopting a more dovish stance, leaning toward easing policy.

Today, September 18, 2025, the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its interest rate. Market consensus projects the BoE will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%. In August, the BoE cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4.00%. However, UK inflation remains high at 3.8% in August 2025, the highest among developed economies. This situation places the BoE in a difficult position. They must balance supporting economic growth and controlling persistently high inflation. With persistent inflation, the BoE is likely to adopt a hawkish stance, tending to tighten monetary policy compared to the Fed, although it may not raise interest rates today.

A current factor supporting the pound is that the BoE is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.00%. The BoE's more hawkish stance compared to the Fed could make the pound more attractive to investors seeking higher yields. On the other hand, the Fed has officially lowered interest rates and hinted at further cuts. This more dovish stance could reduce the attractiveness of the USD. The weakness of the US labor market also provided negative sentiment for the USD.

Although theoretically, fundamental analysis points to GBP strengthening and USD weakening, the market may look different as increased volatility could produce short-term surprises that may not align with theoretical conclusions. Risk anticipation is absolutely necessary in volatile market dynamics. It's worth noting that today, in addition to the Bank of England's interest rate announcement, the US will also release jobless claims data. Market expectations are that jobless claims are projected to fall to 241k from 263k. Lower data could support the US dollar, allowing the GBP/USD pair to become more volatile.

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, is currently up 0.37% at 97.011, having previously fallen as low as 96.218. Despite the significant rebound, the DXY remains below its 20-day moving average (EMA), indicating a bearish sentiment.

GBPUSD D1

The pound sterling is currently below the upper band line on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a channel sloping upwards with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. However, the price is well above the MA line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 63, and its VB Low is at 43. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, indicating potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a fading uptrend and a potential correction.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with an upward channel, indicating a market uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

The pound sterling on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line, which often acts as a consolidation line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, well below the price, drawing an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 73, and its VB Low is 49. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 61 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is 55 within a descending channel, crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 65 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

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Japanese Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BoJ Decision

USD/JPY continued its rise for a second day as the US dollar strengthened. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, while signaling a gradual easing path. Yesterday, the USD/JPY price formed a long-bodied bullish candle, extending the previous day's gains. The price formed a high of 148.265, a low of 146.772, and a close of 147.979 on FXOpen's platform. The USD/JPY price moved across the middle band from the downside, seeking the upper band target.

Japanese Yen traders today will focus on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy and compare it with the Fed's monetary easing policy. USD/JPY movements will be influenced by the interest rate path and the economic outlook of both countries.

The Fed's decision at the FOMC meeting on September 18, 2025, was to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%. This move was in line with market expectations, which had been anticipating a rate cut. The Fed signaled that there is still room for two more interest rate cuts. This reflects the Fed's concerns about slowing job growth and the risks of an economic downturn. Despite reportedly weakening US consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations, the market appears to remain optimistic. Major US stock indexes set new closing records, buoyed by market optimism following the Fed's rate cut.

Today, September 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision. The current benchmark interest rate is 0.50%. Market consensus suggests the BoJ will maintain the policy rate at that level. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference following the policy announcement. The market will be looking for clues regarding the BoJ's future monetary policy direction. A more dovish BoJ stance could put pressure on the Japanese yen. Conversely, a hawkish stance tends to support a stronger Japanese yen. Foreign investment data in Japanese stocks released today showed 106.6 billion yen. Furthermore, previous reports indicated that the Japanese economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2025, giving the BoJ some room to refrain from further policy easing.

Today's Japan CPI report will be crucial in gauging whether inflationary pressures continue to ease. Headline inflation eased to 3.1% year-on-year in July, down from 3.3% in June. The core index excluding fresh food also fell to 3.1% from 3.3% and is expected to cool further to 2.7% in August. In contrast, the core index excluding food and energy remained stable at 3.4% in both June and July, highlighting persistent domestic price pressures.

The Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a policy divergence. The Fed is in an easing cycle to support economic growth amidst a labor market slowdown. The BoJ, despite the still uncertain outlook, is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels. This divergence tends to keep the USD/JPY pair in an uptrend. The US dollar becomes more attractive to investors because it offers a higher yield compared to the Japanese yen. Although the Fed has cut interest rates, they are still significantly higher than the BoJ's interest rate.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen is currently above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting a range-bound market with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the price is drawing a slightly ascending channel, reflecting weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, reflecting a sideways market over a longer period. These lines act as a dynamic resistance to the current market pattern.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 55, and its VB Low is at 45. The difference of 10 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is at 54, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with a slightly ascending channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen is currently near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear slightly widened, reflecting increased volatility on this timeframe.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a flat market and potential upside. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) also draws a flat channel, reflecting a flat market and potential for a longer-term uptrend.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 64, and its VB Low indicator is at 29. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a slight upward channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, indicating potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 67, with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 61, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices surged, driven by market sentiment and monetary policy.

Silver prices surged on Friday, closing with a long bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 43,083, a low of 41,642, and a close of 43,059 on FXOpen's platform.

The surge in silver prices on Friday, September 19th, was driven by a combination of factors, including the Fed's interest rate cut and industrial demand, which fueled the momentum.

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, September 17, 2025. Although the price increase was not immediate, as the market was still digesting its implications, the full effect began to be seen on Friday. This rate cut depressed the value of the US dollar and increased the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets like silver.

Silver demand in the industrial sector is also driving the rise in silver prices. Reports from various institutions, such as the World Silver Survey, indicate a structural deficit in silver supply. In other words, silver demand, particularly from the industrial sector, continues to exceed available supply, creating upward pressure on prices. Friday's price surge pushed silver prices to their highest level in years. This created strong bullish momentum, with traders and other investors entering the market, accelerating the price rise.

In India, silver imports have increased again as investment and industrial demand hit record levels. Global silver mine production only increased slightly, around 0.9% year-on-year, while industrial demand reached record levels. Although recycling has increased, it is not enough to cover the supply deficit.

The market currently still expects the Fed to consider cutting interest rates if economic data weakens or inflation falls. A weaker USD also has a negative correlation with silver. A weaker USD makes silver cheaper in other markets and attracts global buyers. However, expectations of further interest rate cuts will depend on US economic data. A strong economy may lead the Fed to delay interest rate cuts and support a stronger USD, which could lower silver prices.

The risk of a correction is also a concern. After a significant increase, profit-taking could trigger a price decline. A correction from a resistance level or a breach of key support could trigger selling pressure. High volatility could exacerbate negative volatility.

If the US economy remains strong, investors may prefer yield-based assets over safe-haven assets. Another bearish risk is a slowdown in industrial demand or a global economic slowdown.

Silver is currently experiencing positive momentum, supported by fundamentals and a strong supply and demand deficit in the industry. Expectations that the Fed will ease policy also add to the upward momentum. However, focusing on US economic data is now crucial. Any positive surprises in inflation, employment, or economic growth could strengthen the USD and put pressure on silver.

XAGUSD D1

The price of silver on the daily timeframe is below the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility. Support areas to watch are around 40-41, 41.25-42.00.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, also drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 76, and the VB Low is at 48. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62, with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 67, with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 69, with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver prices on the H4 timeframe crossed the upper band, indicating significant upward movement. The Bollinger Bands drew a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The further the price moves away from the line, the stronger the uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 78, and the VB Low is at 38. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 within an ascending channel, crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend approaching overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD rebounds after three consecutive days of decline

The British pound and US dollar pair recovered on Monday, September 22nd, after three consecutive days of bearish candlesticks. Yesterday, GBP/USD drew a bullish candlestick with a small shadow at the bottom. The price formed a high of 1.35201, a low of 1.34530, and a close of 1.35135 on FXOpen's platform during Monday's session, as illustrated by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.18% to 97.47, providing a boost to most currencies.

Fundamental analysis of the GBP/USD pair will focus on the relative strength of the GBP versus the USD, considering factors such as central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions, global market risk sentiment, and the economic data release schedule.

In its monetary policy statement last week, on September 18th, the Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates at 4%. This decision was made because inflation remained high at 3.8%, far above the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE appears undecided about lowering interest rates despite a slowdown in the labor market.

UK annual inflation remains at 3.8%. In the labor market, the latest report shows the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, its highest level in four years. However, wage growth remains strong at 4.8%. This situation creates a dilemma for the BoE: a labor market slowdown is prompting interest rate cuts, but persistently strong wages are keeping inflation high. Meanwhile, UK GDP grew at 0.3%, indicating a resilient economy.

Higher interest rates support the GBP, but a weakening labor market could limit GBP gains, which are likely to be cautiously bullish.

The Fed's monetary policy. The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, its first rate cut since 2025, to support the weakening labor market, even though inflation remains above target. This more dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the US dollar. The latest US CPI report showed US inflation rose 0.4% monthly, driven by food and housing costs. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021. The Fed stated that this weakening was the primary reason for the interest rate cut. While US economic growth remains moderate, the Fed's growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly raised.

The Fed's dovish policy stance and economic data showing a slowdown, particularly in the labor market, are putting pressure on the USD. Sentiment towards the USD is likely bearish.

The divergence between the Bank of England's hawkish policies and the Fed's dovish policies has provided a clear indication of divergence. Fundamentally, this divergence should support GBP strengthening against USD.

Regardless of the risk factors involved, today, traders should be on the lookout for important economic news releases that could move the market. The UK will release inflation data, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), or retail sales. Meanwhile, the US will release housing data, the consumer confidence index, or speeches by Fed officials.

If the UK data release is stronger than expected, the GBP could strengthen, potentially leading to a rise in the GBPUSD pair. Conversely, if the US data is stronger than expected, the USD could strengthen, leading to a fall in the GBPUSD pair.

GBPUSD D1

The pound sterling is currently near the middle band on the daily timeframe. This line often serves as a consolidation zone for price movements. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating a sideways movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with bullish tendencies. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 61, and its VB Low indicator is at 45. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 49 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating a trend reversal to the upside.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the British pound is currently below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, but the upper and lower bands are beginning to converge, indicating bearish sentiment and declining high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the price is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 78, and its VB Low is 24. The difference of 54 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 51 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 43, drawing an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 37 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF Recovers Ahead of SNB Interest Rate Decision

The US dollar accelerated its recovery against the Swiss franc on Wednesday, reaching a high of 0.79575. Moderate risk-off sentiment boosted the US dollar overall, while the CHF remained on the defensive ahead of today's SNB monetary policy decision. The USD/CHF price movement on Wednesday formed a bullish candle with a long body and a small shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.79575, a low of 0.79085, and a close of 0.79491 on FXOpen's platform. This rise represents a recovery from the previous two-day decline from Monday to Tuesday.

In the US, the Census Bureau report showed an increase in new home sales, supporting the USD. In other news, the EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 0.6 million, which is significantly lower than the market's expectations of 0.8 million. This data also supported the strengthening of the USD, as crude oil inventories are a key indicator of supply-demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

The movement of USDCHF today, September 25, will likely be influenced by several key economic agendas, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision, and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, US GDP and unemployment claims.

The SNB will release its interest rate decision today. The market anticipates the SNB to maintain interest rates at 0%. However, the statement accompanying the decision will be the focus of attention. If the SNB expresses a dovish outlook or even cuts interest rates, this could weaken the CHF, which in turn could push the USDCHF pair higher. Conversely, a hawkish statement would strengthen the CHF and push the USDCHF pair lower.

The Fed Chairman's statement the previous day demonstrated the Fed's cautious stance. This statement triggered profit-taking in the US stock market and caused the US dollar to strengthen. The Fed's cautious stance tends to support the US dollar compared to other currencies.

The CHF is considered a safe-haven currency, a safe haven during times of global uncertainty. Investors will tend to shift to the CHF, which could cause the CHF to strengthen and the USDCHF to decline. However, the Fed's cautious stance, as expressed by Powell, tends to support the US dollar, which could push the USDCHF pair higher.

These mixed conditions predict potential volatility for the USDCHF price. The impact of the SNB decision will be a major focus today.

USDCHF will likely hover around key levels ahead of the SNB announcement. A bearish trend is likely, with a target of 0.78980 - 078720, based on the assumption that the Swiss Franc could strengthen. Given the high potential for volatility, strict risk management remains a key focus. Waiting for confirmation of the price direction after major news releases is a prudent strategy.

USDCHF D1

The Swiss Franc is currently moving near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. This area is often the focus of consolidation. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly descending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band has drawn a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with prices below the line, indicating a tendency towards bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band has drawn a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 55, and its VB Low indicator is at 37. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a slightly descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 47, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 43 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCHF H4

The Swiss Franc is moving between the upper and middle bands on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways trend with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment, but prices above the band indicate bullish movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 68, and its VB Low is 33. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 50 within an ascending channel, indicating the price is on a neutral path with potential for an increase.

The RSI Price Line is 58 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a fading rally with potential for a reversal.

The Trade Signal Line is 55 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin Rebounds After Plunging to the $108k Support Zone

Bitcoin has had a rough week of trading over the past week, falling 3.93% over the past seven days, according to Coinmarketcap data. Bitcoin's price dropped to a low of $108,851 on September 25, 2025. However, it attempted a rebound on September 28, reaching a high of $110,974. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is at $110,755. Its volatile movement allows the price to fluctuate at any time.

Negative factors for Bitcoin include volatility and high leverage liquidations. Many traders use leverage, and a price drop can trigger a cascade of liquidations and deepen the correction. A recent large-scale liquidation occurred after a rapid decline. Bitcoin often faces resistance in the high-price zone around $112k-$114k. If key support fails to hold at the key $104k or $10k levels, the downside resistance could be breached.

Market sentiment is also influenced by the Fed's monetary policy, US inflation data, and regulatory stances on crypto in various countries, which can trigger sudden volatility. Historically, September is often a weak month for the crypto market, known as the September effect. After a long rally, the market needs consolidation or a small correction to breathe.

The hash rate remains high or continues to increase, indicating a secure and decentralized network, which is a positive fundamental factor for investor confidence. Advances in scalability solutions and the implementation of important upgrades can increase Bitcoin's utility, and widespread layer 2 adoption will be a strong fundamental driver. The market is currently in a post-halving bull market phase, with the final halving scheduled for 2024. The reduced supply of new BTC should drive positive fundamentals due to scarcity.

The regulatory and institutional environment is also a focus in the crypto market. A key assumption is that by September 2025, Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US and other jurisdictions will have been operational for a significant period. Fund flows from institutional and retail investors through these regulated products could be the biggest driver of demand and positive fundamentals.

If central banks, particularly the Fed, have reached the end of their interest rate hike cycle and are shifting their focus to rate cuts, this tends to benefit non-interest-bearing assets such as crypto. A weakening US dollar (DXY) tends to be bullish for BTC/USD. Geopolitical risks are also a concern for investors. Geopolitical uncertainty and financial crises can support BTC depending on the maturity of investors in choosing safe-haven assets at the time.

Daily movements are likely driven by the release of US economic data, movements in the major stock indices S&P 500/NASDAQ, or breaking news related to regulations or institutions.

A bullish scenario would be if BTC were able to break through and close above the $112k-$114k resistance level. The upward momentum would open at the $120k-$124k target. Some analysts predict this range as a medium-term rebound zone. If the Fed does indeed begin to cut interest rates, foreign and institutional capital inflows would continue.

A bearish scenario would be if the critical support at $107k fails to hold, potentially leading to a deeper decline to levels like $104k or closer to $100k. Pressure from liquidations and negative policy news could accelerate the decline.

The Fear and Greed Index currently shows a level of 34, according to Coinmarketcap data. This indicates the market is already at a fear level, which could lead to a correction.

BTCUSD D1

The Bitcoin price on the daily timeframe is between the middle and lower band lines, attempting to rise with the middle band as its target. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating a sideways movement with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market; prices below the line are likely in a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 60, and the VB Low is at 35. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 44, with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42 with a flat downward channel, indicating a sideways market.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin price on the H4 timeframe is above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 49, and its VB Low indicator is at 20. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 35 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 59 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 43 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

US Government Shutdown Threat Sends Gold Soaring

Gold prices have recently reached very high levels and have shown strong bullish momentum, even setting new record highs. Yesterday, September 29th, gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows, resembling a morobozu. The price formed a high of 3833, a low of 3755, and a close of 3832 on FXOpen's platform.

Geopolitical factors and fiscal risks are the main drivers of gold price movements. The threat of a US government shutdown is a key rumor driving the market. September 30, 2025, is the deadline for the US Congress to pass the 2025 fiscal year budget. If a bipartisan agreement is not reached, the US government will face a shutdown starting October 1st. The impact of political and fiscal uncertainty in the world's largest economy has historically increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The risk of a shutdown is a very significant fundamental driver at this time, providing strong support for gold prices.

Another fundamental factor, the new tariff war announced by the US on imported branded drugs and heavy trucks, has fueled global trade tensions. The impact of these tensions created economic uncertainty, which prompted investors to turn to gold.

Recent US inflation data, such as the PCE index, moved in line with expectations, with annual inflation at 2.7% in August 2025, maintaining speculation that the Fed will continue its monetary policy easing cycle with interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates support gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Dovish sentiment from several Fed officials, such as support for interest rate cuts, also reinforces these expectations.

Most analysts have recently noted a sell-off in the US dollar as expectations for interest rate cuts increase. The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar means that a weaker USD makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus increasing demand and prices.

Gold demand from global central banks, particularly from Russia and China, remains at high levels. This indicates strong long-term structural support for gold prices.

US economic data showed better-than-expected GDP growth, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment, demonstrating the resilience of the US economy. This data should have pressured gold prices, but currently, the bullish forces of fiscal risk factors and expectations of a Fed rate cut appear to be dominating.

Today's gold outlook could depend heavily on developments in two key issues: the risk of a US government shutdown and market sentiment toward Fed policy. News developments regarding US budget negotiations in Congress will be the biggest price driver. Any negative news related to the shutdown tends to push gold prices higher.

Possible short-term resistance for gold is in the 3840-3850 range, and possible short-term support is estimated at 3780-3783, with strong support at 3760-3758. A breakout of this level would test the next floor, signaling a significant weakening of bullish momentum.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now above the upper band, successfully breaking through the upper band, indicating high market volatility. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 88, and the VB Low is at 47. The difference of 41 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 67 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 77, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 76 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the lower band, drawing an upward channel; the price is well above this line, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing to 80, and its VB Low indicator is pointing to 48. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 64 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 70, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend; beware of a correction.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 65, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD Slips Amid News of OPEC+ Production Hikes

WTI crude oil prices plunged to a low of 61.91 on Tuesday, September 30, extending their decline since Monday. Oil prices reached a high of 63.09, a low of 61.91, and a close of 62.22 on FXOpen's platform on September 30.

Fundamental factors influencing the XTI/USD oil price. OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by around 137,000 barrels per day starting in October 2025 as an adjustment to previous voluntary cuts. There are indications that OPEC+ may increase production even more aggressively in November, due to market pressure on high prices and a desire to maintain market share. Increased production could raise concerns about oversupply—the risk of a supply surplus if demand does not grow significantly.

Global oil demand is still growing, but at a moderate pace. In a Reuters survey, many analysts predicted that rising supply would limit the upside in oil prices. The EIA report stated that US oil production is expected to decline by 1% over the next period. The 2025 report shows significant uncertainty about the future supply-demand balance, with factors such as energy policy, technological change, and geopolitical dynamics potentially contributing to risks.

Oil inventories in major consuming countries are at relatively low levels, supporting the sentiment that supply is tight in the short term. However, if OPEC+ and other producers actually increase production significantly, downward price pressure is very likely if stocks increase more rapidly than anticipated.

Other geopolitical disruptions could also trigger sudden price spikes, for example, if there is conflict in oil-producing regions, such as attacks on infrastructure. US interest rates, the value of the USD, and macroeconomic conditions are also of concern, as they can affect oil demand and investor appeal. When the USD strengthens, pressure on commodity prices usually arises. Environmental policies and long-term energy transitions could also limit future oil growth.

The bearish scenario is slightly sideways due to rising OPEC+ production and moderate demand. If the support zone around 64.80 is broken, the price could fall to 62.00. If the price successfully breaks through the 62.00 support level, the next target is near the lower band at 61.40. The bullish scenario is reversed if there are production disruptions or OPEC+ chooses to maintain production. If it can break the resistance zone of 66.50-67.00, the target could reach 69.00-70.00.

The US economic data releases that investors are focusing on today include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall by 52,000. The manufacturing PMI is also in focus, which is expected to rise from the previous revision. These data releases could impact the USD, which in turn could affect oil prices.

XTIUSD D1

The daily timeframe for WTI oil is currently trading between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands are showing a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting range-bound movement and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is showing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement; prices below the band indicate downside movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is showing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is showing 56, and its VB Low indicator is showing 38. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing 47 with an upward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is showing 45 with a downward sloping channel, crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing 51 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI crude oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. Here, the upper and lower bands are moving away from each other, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and lower bands draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. Prices below the line indicate a tendency for downward movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is 77, and its VB Low indicator is 33. The difference of 44 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 55 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 30 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend at oversold levels. Beware of corrections.

The Trade Signal Line is 34 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.