Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/JPY at its highest level since April

Yesterday, the Japanese Yen weakened amid the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2024. Yesterday, USD/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 149.533, a low of 147.804, and a close of 149.451, moving from the middle band to the upper band line.

The Fed is likely to maintain its policy stance in response to uncertainty driven by tariffs and inflation, despite pressure from the White House for interest rate cuts. Projections suggest the possibility of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, but this depends on incoming economic data, particularly labor market and inflation data. US growth showed a recovery in Q2 2025, with GDP growth of 2.5% annually after a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The unemployment rate is stable at 4.1%-4.2%. US CPI inflation as of June 2025 rose to 2.7% annually, with core inflation of 2.9%.

The Bank of Japan also maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.5% at its July 2025 meeting, where it had been since January 2025. The BoJ demonstrated a cautious approach in exiting its ultra-loose policy amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty, particularly the impact of US tariffs. The BoJ is expected to raise its inflation projection for the current fiscal year to 2.5%, while maintaining below 2% for the next two years. There is strong speculation for another rate hike in late 2025 or early 2026, with October 2025 as a possible window. Japan's economic growth has slowed, contracting 0.2% annually in the last quarter due to weak consumption and exports. However, wage increases in the spring 2025 labor negotiations indicate improvement that could support future consumption. Japan's CPI inflation as of June 2025 was 3.3% annually, with core inflation also at 3.3%.

The USD/JPY will be heavily influenced by the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, as well as economic data from both countries. The US appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation. However, a rate cut later in the year could put downward pressure on the USD. Japan's current interest rate stance indicates its readiness for further policy tightening if inflation and wage growth are sustained. A potential BoJ rate hike would support the JPY.

US CPI inflation data remains above the Fed's 2% target. If inflation remains high, the Fed is likely to maintain a supportive interest rate environment for the USD. Japan's inflation above the BoJ's target for the fourth consecutive year provides encouragement for the BoJ to continue moving toward policy normalization, which would support the JPY.

The recovery in US GDP growth in Q2 2025 demonstrates economic resilience, supporting the USD. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs and slowing consumption could pose a barrier. Meanwhile, Japan's still-weak economic growth is a concern, although rising wages offer some hope. Sluggish consumption and weak exports could limit the strength of the JPY.

Today, the market will focus on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, which concludes today. Given that the BoJ is expected to maintain interest rates but may signal further tightening or revise its inflation projections upward, this could provide a boost to the JPY.

Given that the BoJ is on track to exit its ultra-loose policy stance, while the Fed is likely to refrain from cutting rates anytime soon despite pressure from Trump, monetary policy divergence is likely to support the JPY's strength relative to the USD in the medium term. However, today, July 31, 2025, the primary focus is the BoJ's announcement. If the BoJ delivers a more hawkish statement or significantly raises its inflation projections, we may see JPY appreciation. Conversely, if the BoJ is very cautious and does not give a strong signal for further tightening, buying pressure on USDJPY could re-emerge, especially if stronger US economic data emerges.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen is currently near the upper band on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 67, and its VB Low is at 45. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 56, with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 65, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58, with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen is near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 37. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 68, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating a market uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59, with an ascending channel, indicating a bearish uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices fell near the lower band, extending the decline that began on July 23rd.

Yesterday, the XAG/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 37,264, a low of 36,202, and a close of 36,699 on FXOpen's platform. Silver's price movement has crossed the middle band from the upper side and reached the lower band line.

Silver is currently exhibiting complex movement. On the one hand, there are strong driving factors driving price increases. On the other hand, several sentiments are also holding back the price increase.

Factors supporting price increases include the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations that it will begin cutting interest rates in September and December 2025. Looser monetary policy tends to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver and gold. Industrial demand is also strong, particularly for solar panels, electronics, and other green technologies, which continue to rise. This growing demand provides a strong fundamental support for silver in the long term. Geopolitical and trade uncertainty can fuel demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold. The threat of US trade tariffs on several trading partner countries, and the Russia-Ukraine war in the Middle East, also support silver amid global uncertainty. Silver supply is expected to be in deficit, which could lead to price increases as demand exceeds availability.

On the other hand, a strengthening USD is hampering silver. Despite expectations of future interest rate cuts, the US dollar remains supported by recent favorable economic data. A strong US dollar historically pressures silver prices because it makes them more expensive for investors holding other currencies. There is some trade optimism regarding a deal between the US and some of its trading partners, which could ease tensions, potentially reducing silver demand. Technically, there is a weakening bullish momentum, with signs of exhaustion. Silver recently experienced a correction from its highs, indicating profit-taking and a potential price reversal.

Recent US data, such as better-than-expected initial jobless claims, could support USD strength, although market sentiment remains focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut. Silver has declined from its high around 39.50, indicating strong resistance at that level. Investor sentiment data suggests that long positions are beginning to slow, which could signal the exhaustion of bullish momentum. However, the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish.

Fundamentally, silver still has support from expectations of looser monetary policy, strong manufacturing, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, caution is needed to monitor US economic data today, such as the NFP, PMI, and unemployment rate, which could trigger USD strength.

XAGUSD D1

Silver is currently near the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 74, and the VB Low is showing a value of 48. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 61 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, suggesting a potential trend reversal.

The RSI Price Line is showing a value of 41, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing a value of 52, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

Silver is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 54, and VB Low shows a value of 18. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 36 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 24 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 22 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin Consolidates After Significant Rally in July

BTCUSD indicates the market is in a consolidation phase following its July rally. Yesterday, BTCUSD drew a bullish candle that engulfed the preceding candle, indicating that after the decline, buyers were trying to take over. BTCUSD formed a high of 114756, a low of 111986, and a close of 114416. Bitcoin sentiment is expected to move sideways in the 115,000-120,000 range after reaching a record high in July. Analysts predict a possible price squeeze, or significant price movement, either upward or downward.

Bitcoin ETF data flows remain a key driver. July saw a record $12.8 billion in inflows into crypto ETFs, reflecting strong institutional demand. This inflow, coupled with post-halving dynamics, is expected to fuel a potential Bitcoin breakout in August.

The impact of Trump's policy of changing reciprocal tariffs in various countries caused a decline in crypto prices. This indicates that macroeconomic sentiment and global policies still have a significant impact on digital assets like Bitcoin.

Major companies continue to show interest in Bitcoin, for example, Trump Media's $2 billion Bitcoin acquisition, challenging Micro Strategy's dominance. This demonstrates Bitcoin's growing integration into public companies' investment strategies.

On-chain funds show that new investor dominance in Bitcoin is around 30%, far below the saturation level of 64%-72%, indicating that there is still a lot of fresh capital entering the market without any signs of excessive euphoria, opening the opportunity for a larger price surge.

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio is currently at 2.2 and is slowly approaching its 365-day moving average. Historically, this ratio often approaches the long-term average, often leading to rebounds accompanied by price spikes.

Bitcoin's on-chain velocity is at its lowest level in a decade, indicating that BTC is shifting from a medium of exchange to a long-term store of value, primarily driven by institutional adoption.

Short-term predictions suggest Bitcoin will remain in the $115,000-$120,000 range. Some analysts are targeting $125,000-$128,000 if it successfully breaks through the $120,000 resistance. Predictions for the end of the year vary, with VanEck projecting $180,000, Charles Schwab predicting $1 million, and Standard Chartered targeting $200,000.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin is near the lower band on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger bands are slightly widened, reflecting slightly increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 45. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 46, with a curved channel to the upside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin is in the middle band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, with the upper and lower bands converging, indicating decreasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 55, and the VB Low is at 25. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat line, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 44, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 38, with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rose, supported by speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

Yesterday, gold prices rose slightly, drawing a small-bodied bullish candlestick, attempting to extend two previous gains. Gold prices formed a high of 3385, a low of 3345, and a close of 3373 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices appear to remain supported by safe-haven sentiment and speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Several key factors to watch today are: US economic data, geopolitical conditions, US dollar movements, and central bank demand.

US economic data, including last week's weaker-than-expected US employment data, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), has fueled market speculation about the Fed's possible inclination toward an interest rate cut. This is good news for gold, as lower interest rates tend to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Today's key event: the market will focus on the S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July. Data showing a slowdown in the services sector could further support speculation about a Fed rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. Conversely, strong data could dampen such speculation and potentially depress gold prices.

Global uncertainties, such as trade tensions triggered by Trump and geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-US and China-Taiwan, continue to be key drivers of demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. As long as this uncertainty persists, gold is likely to remain a primary choice for investors seeking to protect their assets.

The US dollar strengthened in recent days due to a technical rebound after a sharp decline following the NFP release. However, this strengthening will be temporary if US data released today shows weakness. If risk sentiment resumes and speculation about a Fed interest rate cut intensifies, the US dollar will likely weaken, which in turn will support gold prices.

Gold purchases by global central banks, primarily to reduce dependence on the US dollar, are also a long-term fundamental factor supporting gold prices. Fund inflows into gold ETFs also indicate positive investor sentiment.

Gold's movement today could depend on the release of US PMI data. If the PMI weakens, gold prices are likely to find momentum to extend their gains. If the PMI data is stronger than expected, a correction in gold prices is likely as speculation about an interest rate cut will subside.

While short-term sentiment is supportive, some analysts warn of strong resistance at the psychological level of around $3,400, which may be difficult to break without significant trading volume.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently moving above the middle band line, attempting to reach the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 58, and the VB Low is at 41. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is at 54, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment with potential for upside. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High (VBA High) shows a value of 65, and its VB Low (VB Low) shows a value of 23. The difference of 42 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 44 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls, with potential for upside.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 64, with a channel starting to flatten, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 64, with an ascending channel starting to flatten, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD will focus on today's Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair drew a fairly long-bodied bullish candle, reflecting a weakening USD. The GBP/USD price formed a high of 1.33681, a low of 1.32815, and a close of 1.33557 on FXOpen's platform.

The US dollar continued its downtrend and plunged to a multi-day low on Wednesday, as investors remained wary of President Trump's plans for Chairman Powell's replacement and developments on the trade front ahead of the upcoming deadline. The DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, fell 0.51%, crossing the 20-EMA from the upside, reaching a low of 98.128 from a high of 98.837.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its August 7 meeting, from 4.15% to 4.00%. This cut is expected due to high inflation of 3.6% in June, but the UK economy is showing signs of weakness and a weakening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.7%. This is part of the longest and most gradual cycle since World War II.

US economic data shows a weak July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure of just 73,000 jobs, a significant negative revision from the previous month. The July ISM services index (ISM) was only 50.1, indicating stagnation in the service sector. Market expectations are starting to include the potential for a Fed rate cut in September, with a probability of over 75%. Comments from Fed officials, such as Governor Mary Daly, who recently indicated that two rate cuts in 2025 are appropriate. These types of statements can influence expectations regarding the Fed's policy path.

If Fed officials' comments are more hawkish, the US dollar could strengthen. Conversely, dovish comments or weaker data could weaken the USD.

On August 7, the US will release data on initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as productivity and unit labor costs. These figures will provide subtle clues about the health of the US labor market and inflationary pressures.

The potential for volatility remains high in GBPUSD ahead of the BoE announcement. Market reaction is focused not only on the interest rate cut but also on the BoE's future outlook.

Technically, the support levels of 1.3300 and 1.3140 are expected to be key, while resistance levels around 1.3400 and 1.3585 will be targets for bulls if the BoE surprises with a hawkish tone.

GBPUSD D1

The pound sterling is currently near the middle band on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger bands have drawn a slightly descending channel with fairly wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band has drawn a flattening channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band has drawn a flattening channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 66, and the VB Low is showing a value of 29. The difference of 37 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 47 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 45 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 27 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

The pound sterling is slightly above the upper band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment with a potential trend transition. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly away from the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63, and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 43 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness, potentially leading to an uptrend.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 62, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY opened with a slight gap at the open.

EURJPY opened at 171.673, slightly below Friday's closing price of 171.971. Japanese banks will be closed today in observance of Mountain Day, which may affect trading volume, particularly in the Japanese Yen. On Friday, the EURJPY pair drew a small bullish candle, with a high of 172.339, a low of 171.363, and a close of 171.971 on FXOpen's platform. EURJPY's movement tended to be stable over the two trading days.

In general, the fundamental bias for the EURJPY pair remains bullish, supported by several key factors related to monetary policy and global market sentiment.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a more cautious stance on monetary policy easing compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This slower pace of easing could support the stability of the Euro.

The BoJ continues to maintain a very dovish monetary policy, meaning the Japanese central bank tends to keep interest rates low to support economic growth, this policy has the potential to weaken the JPY.

The contrasting monetary policies of the more hawkish ECB and the dovish BoJ have created a significant interest rate divergence. This interest rate divergence makes the Euro more attractive to investors, potentially driving the EURJPY up.

When global sentiment tends to be risk-on (investors are optimistic and willing to take risks), safe-haven currencies like the JPY typically weaken. Conversely, the Euro tends to strengthen in these conditions. Currently, global risk-on sentiment is supporting the EUR's strengthening against the JPY.

From the latest economic data, although there are no specific major economic releases scheduled for today, it is important to continue monitoring upcoming economic data from the Eurozone and Japan, such as inflation and GDP, which could influence market expectations regarding central bank policy and change the direction of the pair's movement.

Although the BoJ maintains a dovish stance, the risk of Japanese government intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the JPY remains, potentially limiting JPY weakness.

If market sentiment suddenly shifts to risk-off (investors avoid risk), the JPY could strengthen as a safe-haven currency, which could cause the Euro to weaken. If the ECB indicates it is accelerating its policy easing path, this could weaken the euro and negatively impact the EURJPY.

EURJPY D1

EURJPY is currently moving near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting range-bound movement with relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 79, and VB Low shows a value of 49. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish, with a potential downtrend.

The RSI price line draws an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

EURJPY H4

EURJPY is near the middle band line on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat descending channel, indicating fading bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 67, and the VB Low is at 32. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a slight ascending channel, indicating the market is in a neutral, potentially uptrend.

The RSI Price Line is at 57, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59, with a slight ascending channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD fell slightly ahead of the RBA cash rate and US inflation.

The Australian dollar in Monday's trading showed a bearish candlestick with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.65285, a low of 0.65012, and a close of 0.65101. Price movement remained near the middle band line on the daily timeframe.

Today could be a crucial day for the AUD/USD pair, as there will be important fundamental events that could trigger high volatility. This fundamental analysis will focus investors on two main factors: the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision and US inflation data (CPI).

One factor driving the AUD/USD movement is the RBA interest rate decision. The majority of the market expects the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 3.85% to 3.60%. Significant price movements are likely to arise not only from the decision itself but also from the accompanying monetary policy.

A very dovish outlook, with policymakers leaning toward further monetary easing and hinting at future interest rate cuts, could negatively impact the Australian dollar. Conversely, if the RBA cuts rates but provides a balanced or even hawkish outlook, with the likelihood of holding rates unchanged or raising them in the future, this could limit the AUD's decline and possibly trigger a recovery.

On the other hand, the USD is influenced by the release of important US inflation data. Investors will be closely watching the July CPI inflation report, scheduled for today.

Inflation data is a key factor influencing the Fed's interest rate decisions. If US inflation data is higher than expected, this will increase expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, or perhaps consider delaying rate cuts, which in turn will strengthen the US dollar and weaken the Australian dollar. If inflation data is lower than expected, this will strengthen the argument that the Fed will cut interest rates in the future, and this sentiment will weaken the US dollar and could push the Australian dollar up.

The AUD/USD currency pair will face dual pressure today from the RBA's policy tone and US inflation data.

AUD/USD D1

The Australian dollar is currently near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a relatively flat path with wide band spacing, indicating consolidation with relatively high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is parallel to the middle band, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 62, and the VB Low is at 41. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUD/USD H4

The Australian dollar is near the middle band line on the H4 timeframe. Here, a Bollinger band squeeze indicates a flat movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market with potential for upside. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a horizontal channel, indicating a longer-term sideways movement.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 64, and its VB Low is 46. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 55 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 51 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 53 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin moves near key resistance near its all-time high of $123,000

Bitcoin's price remains hovering near its all-time high of $123,000. The BTC/USD price on Wednesday, August 13, drew a bullish candle with a long body and short wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 122966, a low of 118916, and a close of 122896 on FXOpen's platform. Some traders appear to be awaiting Bitcoin's breakout momentum, which could send the price rising to a new all-time high.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin currently enjoys positive market sentiment. Many analysts view 2025 as the post-halving year, which historically triggers significant price spikes. The total crypto market capitalization is currently reported to have reached $4 trillion.

Institutional adoption remains a key driver. Reports indicate significant interest from financial institutions in crypto ETFs such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) launched by leading university Harvard University, demonstrates this trend. Strong fund flows into the Ethereum ETF (ETHA) also strongly indicate institutional interest.

Developments in crypto regulations in the US are also providing positive support for Bitcoin. President Trump's executive order to ease access to digital assets in retirement plans could open the door to significant capital inflows into the crypto market.

Technically, Bitcoin has recently hovered around its all-time high, despite a brief correction. Some analysts see technical patterns indicating a potential further breakout, possibly reaching $126,000 or even $130,000. Some Bitcoin miners, such as Sequans, have also reportedly increased their Bitcoin holdings.

Today, the market will focus on the release of US economic data, namely the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims. These data will provide clues about inflationary pressures and the state of the US labor market.

The Fed appears to have factored in the possibility of an interest rate cut. Statements from Fed officials, such as Barkin's speech today, will be closely watched for further clues regarding future monetary policy.

DXY sentiment remains generally weak, recently dropping to a two-week low. This decline may have been driven by market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and increased risk-on sentiment, which has driven investors to choose riskier assets, including crypto.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin is currently trading around $122k near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are slightly widened, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating weaker bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 72, and its VB Low is 44. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is 68, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 61, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin is near the upper band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band also draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. There is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 73, and its VB Low indicator is at 51. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 70, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend entering overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62, with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin price stabilizes around $117k, with upside potential still present

We witnessed a correction in the BTCUSD price after reaching a new all-time high above $124k. The price then fell to around $117k. This stable price movement within a narrow range occurred for four consecutive days, with movement near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin is currently in an interesting phase, with several key factors likely influencing its movement.

Market sentiment and institutional adoption remain the main drivers of Bitcoin price movements. Currently, the crypto market generally shows neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is at 59, indicating the market is not experiencing excessive euphoria or panic. This is a healthy signal, as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, indicating continued interest from institutional investors.

Bitcoin recently experienced a correction following a disappointing US PPI report. This demonstrates that, despite its role as an independent asset, Bitcoin is still influenced by US macroeconomic data. Movements in the Fed's interest rate and the US dollar exchange rate remain important factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements.

Meanwhile, miner activity in August 2025 will influence BTC price movements due to the balance between miner sales and institutional inflows. If miners continue to sell BTC to cover operational costs, this could create selling pressure. However, if institutional demand is stronger, the potential for Bitcoin price increases remains open.

Overall, the long-term fundamental sentiment for BTCUSD remains positive, with some analysts predicting BTC could reach $150,000, even after hitting a record high above $124,000 in August.

Technically, the BTCUSD price movement is showing signs of consolidation, hovering around $117k-$118k, with support at $111k-$112k. Stronger support is around $108k.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin's price movement on the daily timeframe is currently hovering around $117k, near the middle band line, which often serves as a consolidation zone. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting low volatility and range-bound market movement.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws a slightly flat channel, indicating neutral, somewhat bullish market sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 66, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting, with potential for a downtrend.

The RSI Price Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating neutral market sentiment.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin is trading on the H4 timeframe near the middle band. Here, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, with the upper and lower bands converging, reflecting significantly reduced market volatility during the consolidation phase.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a slight upward channel, but the price is below the line, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating neutral market sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 66, and the VB Low is at 33. The difference between the two indicates volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a downward channel, indicating the market is in a neutral phase with potential for a downtrend.

The RSI Price Line is at 43 with a flat channel, indicating neutral market sentiment.

The Trade Signal Line is at 43 with a flat upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices plummet due to geopolitical changes

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, August 19th, drawing a small-bodied bearish candlestick below the middle band line. Gold prices formed a high of 3345, a low of 3314, and a close of 3315 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices fell as Trump, Zelenskiy, and European leaders discussed possible negotiations with Russia. Geopolitical developments suggest that a positive outcome from US President Trump's meeting with Putin, Zelenskiy, and European leaders could end the ongoing war. Safe-haven demand declined as speculation about security guarantees for Kyiv fueled a potential end to the war.

Fundamentally, gold price movements are also influenced by the strength of the US dollar and market risk sentiment.

Traders will focus on the FOMC minutes, which will be released on August 21st, refers to the ForexFactory economic calendar. These minutes will provide further clues regarding Fed officials' views on the economic outlook, inflation, and, most importantly, the future direction of interest rate policy. If the minutes indicate a hawkish Fed stance, this will strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, if the minutes are dovish, the US dollar will weaken, supporting gold.

Gold is a non-yielding asset; rising interest rates make it less attractive to large investors who prefer bonds with higher yields. This tends to strengthen the USD, depressing gold prices. Conversely, if the US dollar weakens due to interest rate cuts, gold prices have the potential to strengthen.

The US-China trade war could influence market sentiment. Progress or delays in tariff negotiations could reduce uncertainty, prompting investors to choose riskier assets like stocks and avoid gold as a safe-haven. Conversely, escalating tensions could boost gold demand.

Investors will also be focused on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting that any escalation or de-escalation could directly impact gold.

Gold movements are expected to be highly volatile, especially ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. A bullish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes show a more dovish-than-expected Fed stance, and if there is an escalation in geopolitical and trade tensions, investors would potentially seek safe-haven assets. A bearish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes confirm a hawkish stance that supports the USD, and if improved risk sentiment in the market, for example, optimism regarding conflict resolution, could reduce gold's appeal.

Given the importance of Fed data, investors are currently likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the data is released. Market movements will depend on how the market responds to and interprets the Fed's signals.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently moving below the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, suggesting a Bollinger Band squeeze. Price movement is within the range of 3247-3451. Barring major market volatility, the gold price is expected to remain within a range-bound market.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 59, and the VB Low is at 42. The difference of 17 reflects gold's volatility on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating gold's movement is in a neutral channel.

The RSI Price Line is at 45, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently attempting to break the lower band, moving outside the band after a bearish candle crossed the line. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly descending channel with slightly widened band spacing, reflecting weak bearish sentiment and slightly increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the upper and middle bands has drawn a flat channel, indicating potential sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the upper band has drawn a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 51, and the VB Low is at 34. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 32, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 39, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.