Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

The Canadian Dollar Strengthens After Oil Prices Rebound

During the trading session on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, the USD/CAD pair drew a long bearish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.40323, a low of 1.39760, and a close of 1.39874.

The Canadian dollar's strengthening was in line with rising oil prices after a session of decline that reached the oversold zone.

Today, the main fundamental factor attracting investor attention is Canadian economic data. The relevant economic data affecting the USD/CAD movements today is the monthly core retail sales for August. If Canadian core and headline retail sales data are better than forecast, indicating strong consumer spending and supporting the Canadian dollar, this could cause the USD/CAD pair to decline. Conversely, if the economic data report is worse than forecast, it indicates an economic slowdown and could potentially weaken the Canadian dollar.

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, and its price is highly sensitive to oil prices. Rising oil prices tend to support the Canadian dollar, while falling oil prices can pressure the currency. Oil prices are currently on a two-day rebound after a prolonged decline the previous week. Some positive news for Canada, although the market response has not been strong.

Canadian economic data, while showing strength, such as some employment and export data, appears to have failed to significantly strengthen the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. The market appears to be awaiting a more significant catalyst. Several analysts have highlighted upside potential if the Canadian dollar remains weak and the USD receives capital inflows.

Medium-term analysis suggests that the CAD could begin to strengthen as the interest rate and stimulus cycle in Canada progress, ultimately putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD.

On the other hand, factors influencing the USD stem from global risk sentiment. Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty can increase demand for the USD, a safe-haven currency.

Traders are also anticipating the Fed's policy stance. Expectations of interest rate hikes or cuts will significantly impact the USD. The Fed is currently adopting a more cautious monetary stance amidst global conditions that still pose risks.

The USD/CAD price forecast for today is within the range of 1.3950 - 1.4150. The forecast peak and short-term resistance are around 1.4080 - 1.4115. Support is estimated at 1.3990 - 1.4000. A decline in the psychological level and the lower limit could trigger a significant decline in the USD/CAD.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are beginning to appear constricted, reflecting decreasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band still draws an ascending channel, while the price is well above the line, reflecting bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 47. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 55 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger bands appear slightly widened, reflecting increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an upward channel, while prices below the line indicate a downward movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 38. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a downward channel, indicating a neutral price trend with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 41 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 41 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD Extends Decline Ahead of UK PMI Data Release

On Thursday, October 23, 2025, the GBP/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a relatively long body and small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This decline extended the previous four-day decline. The price formed a high of 1.33600, a low of 1.33078, and a close of 1.3325.

Several fundamental factors contributed to the weakening of the GBP, including the UK's annual inflation data for September, which was recorded at 3.8%, below expectations and not increasing from the previous month. This condition has raised expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates or remain cautious. The UK economy appears weak, or at least not particularly strong, with limited growth, creating pressure in the UK bond market. A more dovish BoE outlook or potential rate cuts could cause yields on UK instruments to fall, reducing the attractiveness of the GBP against the USD. Expectations for a BoE rate cut have increased, and the market now expects 20 bps of easing for December, up from 11 bps. Today, the UK will release its services PMI economic data. If the data surprises, showing faster growth, it could support the GBP. However, the risks are currently more to the downside.

On the other hand, the USD is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in lowering interest rates as expected, thus making US yields more attractive, boosting demand for the USD. Global risk sentiment, coupled with uncertainty, is boosting the safe-haven USD, which could strengthen demand for global liquidity. US trade rhetoric against China has worried investors, prompting them to turn to safe assets like the US dollar and gold. Reuters sources revealed that the Trump administration plans to restrict global exports to China that make or contain US software in retaliation for China's export controls on rare earths and port fees for US vessels.

Today, the US will release CPI data, which is crucial for the Fed in determining interest rate policy. The annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%. If the actual figure is higher than forecast, this could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike or at least keep interest rates at high levels for a longer period. A higher-than-expected US CPI tends to strengthen the USD because it increases speculation that the Fed will be hawkish. This could put downward pressure on GBPUSD. Conversely, if the US CPI is lower than forecast, it will tend to weaken the USD because it reduces the need for the Fed to raise interest rates, which can provide an upward push for GBPUSD.

If global stock markets, particularly in the US, strengthen, this could indicate risk-on sentiment, which can sometimes support the GBP. However, USD strength due to strong CPI figures could dominate this sentiment. The US dollar is generally supported by expectations of a stable or hawkish Fed policy stance, while the US economy remains relatively strong.

Today's price range, if volatility is high due to the US CPI, is forecast to be between 1.3240 and 1.3430. A conservative range is estimated at 1.3280 and 1.3380.

GBPUSD D1

The Pound Sterling price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating a range-bound market with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 58, and the VB Low is at 36. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base line is at 47 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 40, with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways movement.

GBPUSD H4

The pound sterling is currently near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a flat channel; prices below the line indicate a more bearish market. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 65, and its VB Low is 32. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The RSI Price Line is 39 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 39 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, if there is a sudden weakening in global risk appetite, investors could turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, which could pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.

AUDJPY D1

Today's gap up saw AUDJPY open higher than Friday's close. The price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating weak bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strengthening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 73, and the VB Low is at 45. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 60, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDJPY H4

The AUDJPY pair is near the upper band on the H4 timeframe, with a gap up clearly visible. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel, with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend. Prices moving away from the line reflect a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 70, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 68, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 66 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold Prices Continue to Correct, Crossing the Middle Band Line

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, October 27, 2025, extending their correction, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 4108, a low of 3971, and a close of 3987. This decline successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside and crossed the psychological level of 4000.

Gold prices have been highly volatile recently, having reached new highs followed by sharp corrections. Historically, the long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum indicates a correction or consolidation phase.

From a long-term perspective, if global risk sentiment improves, such as optimism about resolving US-China trade tensions and geopolitical issues, this could lead to easing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price declines. Recently, it was reported that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold a meeting, which raised optimism about a resolution to the trade war between the two countries. According to US officials, they have finalized the framework of a trade deal with Chinese economic leaders that is set to be formalized by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported that, according to US officials, this agreement will halt steeper US tariff increases, end restrictions on rare earths exports from China, and resume China's large purchases of US soybeans.

Besides global risk sentiment, profit-taking after a significant rally also triggered further price declines in the short term. On the other hand, gold often has a negative correlation with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, supported by strong US economic data or a hawkish Fed outlook, gold tends to fall. However, the DXY is currently not showing significant increases; although it is trending upward, its movement is still below the 100 level. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, for example, ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, which could signal a dovish outlook, gold could be pushed up.

The market is currently anticipating the imminent interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.8%. If the actual data meets market expectations, it is likely to push gold prices up. Conversely, if the Fed is more cautious and leaves interest rates unchanged, this could pressure gold prices.

Despite the prospect of lower interest rates, the US dollar is showing signs of regaining strength, or at least not weakening further. This could put pressure on gold prices. A more bullish market sentiment, which is seeking riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, as the market tends to be risk-on, could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Today's price forecast is for a broader range of 3920-4140 and a consolidation range of 3985-4086. Strong resistance is around 4140-4160, and strong support is around 3920-3960.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside. The Bollinger bands began to draw closer together, reflecting waning bullish sentiment with decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 91, and the VB Low is pointing at 60. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 75 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, and a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 52, with a downward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 62, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, reflecting rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a downward-curving channel, indicating waning bullish sentiment, with prices below the line reflecting a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 27. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 43 with a descending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 30, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend entering the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 36 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD falls ahead of BoC interest rate decision

The USDCAD pair trended downward during the week's trading. Although price volatility was very volatile in the short term, downward pressure was dominant. The USDCAD charted a bearish candle on October 28th with a fairly long candle body. The price formed a high of 1.40056, a low of 1.39333, and a close of 1.39433. This indicates the Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar ahead of today's BoC interest rate decision. The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, prior to 2.50%. Theoretically, an interest rate cut tends to weaken the CAD because the return is relatively less attractive compared to the USD. On the other hand, the USD is expected to see an interest rate cut or easing by the Federal Reserve. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken currencies, but the USD still receives support from safe-haven flows and uncertain global conditions.

The CAD's strengthening on Tuesday appears to have been driven more by the report on US Consumer Confidence, which fell in October. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the USD, has weakened slightly over the past five days, trending towards a doji with a lower low. The DXY is currently down at 98.717 from a high of 98.565.

Today's focus will shift to the risk of interest rate decisions from the Bank of China (BoC) and the Federal Reserve, which are preparing to announce their decisions. The market currently expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates due to a sharp slowdown in the Canadian economy, which shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter due to US steel/aluminum tariffs and high unemployment.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is also almost certain to cut interest rates after weaker-than-expected US inflation data last week, reinforcing expectations of a dovish Fed stance. The Fedwatch tool indicates a 99.9% probability of a 25 bps interest rate cut.

Canada relies heavily on oil exports, and oil prices are currently falling after ending a session of gains during last week's trading. Weakening oil prices could put pressure on the CAD against the USD. Analysts report that pension fund hedges against the CAD are declining, reducing the automatic support for the CAD.

Combining Canadian and US fundamentals, USDCAD has the potential to rise due to the BoC interest rate cut. Although the Fed is also expected to cut rates, it still enjoys support as a safe-haven currency, benefiting the USD. However, if there is a sharp rebound in oil prices or a surprisingly strong Canadian economy, the CAD could strengthen further.

Today's USDCAD price forecast: support range: 1.39000 - 1.39500, resistance range: 1.41000 - 1.41500.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with fairly wide band spacing, indicating a range-bound market with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the price draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 72, and its VB Low indicator is at 45. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 46, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, reflecting bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel; the price is well below this line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 52, and its VB Low indicator is at 35. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 34, with a sharp descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 41 within a descending channel, indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY rises after the Fed's interest rate cut decision

On Wednesday, October 29th, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 153.061, a low of 151.543, and a close of 152.700.

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The market surprised the market, as the USD strengthened against other major currencies, including the Japanese Yen, which rose significantly within an hour. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, rose around 0.43% after the cut. The DXY rose to a high of 99.356 from a low of 98.624 and closed at 99.167.

The market had previously predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates, with a 99% chance of a cut, according to the Fedwatch tool, just hours before the release. However, what's more important is not just the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed Chairman's statement, whether it will be dovish or hawkish. The FOMC statement showed that economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace. Job growth slowed this year, and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with this development. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high. The committee recommends a long-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the risk of a job decline has increased in recent months.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently does not expect major changes in interest rates in the short term. It is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%. In theory, the Japanese yen is quite vulnerable due to the difference in interest rates and long-term expectations. If the BoJ signals a hawkish signal or the market anticipates a Japanese interest rate hike, the JPY could strengthen. Conversely, if the BoJ is very dovish, the JPY is likely to remain weak. Internal government pressure also contributed to the Japanese government's warning that, through its financial authorities, it would monitor currency volatility and potentially intervene if the JPY weakened too rapidly.

Considering the fundamentals of both the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and potential intervention by the Japanese government. Currently, the USD remains biased to strengthen, but the risk of a reversal is significant if the BoJ suddenly signals a hawkish stance or Japan intervenes to strengthen the JPY.

Today's short-term price range forecast is 151.00-153.00, while the broader forecast is 150.00-154.00. Potential support is around 151.50-150.80. If the JPY strengthens, the price could fall to 150.50-151.00. Resistance is around 152.80-153.30. If momentum is strong or the JPY weakens further, it could rise to 153.25-153.50.

Today, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the tone of its monetary policy statement, which may provide subtle clues about Japan's economic outlook. Markets sometimes react quickly to policy changes.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY pair is currently trading between the upper and middle bands on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the lower band, drawing an ascending channel. Prices are well above the line, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 44. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 57 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 61, with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 63 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY pair is above the middle band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating a sideways trend with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slightly upward channel, and prices above the line reflect weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 74, and the VB Low is at 41. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 56 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 49 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices stabilize near the middle band

The XTIUSD oil price on Thursday, October 30, drew a Doji candlestick, reflecting market indecision within a narrow price range. The price formed a high of 60.55, a low of 59.46, and a close of 60.08, after opening at 60.15.

Fundamentally, the crude oil market is currently dominated by concerns about oversupply and slowing global demand. Factors that could influence the decline in oil prices include the IEA report showing a significant oil supply surplus since the beginning of the year. Global production is estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day, primarily from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada, and is expected to continue to increase until 2026.

Although OPEC+ previously restricted supply, they are expected to gradually ease cuts with planned output increases, which could add to supply pressure on the market. Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly compared to historical trends due to more challenging macroeconomic conditions and increased transportation efficiency.

Global oil stocks continue to rise, including those held on ships/at sea, reaching a four-year high, indicating an oversupplied market. Economic data from major economies like China show no strong growth in oil consumption, while there is also a decline in the risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East peace agreement. On the other hand, the US administration is known to prioritize lower oil prices around $50 per barrel to manage inflation.

On the other hand, as a supporting factor for oil prices, although OPEC+ is gradually increasing, they are expected to be cautious to prevent stocks from rising too rapidly. They could also consider new supply cuts if prices fall too far. There is also a view that amid US sanctions on Russia, overall oil demand by major consumers remains strong. Meanwhile, a high Oil Volatility Index indicates market distrust and the potential for rapid price declines, but this could also lead to a sudden price reversal.

Comparing fundamental factors on both sides, market sentiment appears to remain bearish, driven by a clear supply surplus and slowing demand growth, although comments from OPEC+ may provide some price support.

The forecast oil price range is likely to be in the range of 59-63. Key resistance is around 66, and short-term support is around 61.50-63. Long-term support is around 55.00, and short-term support is around 58.99-59.57.

XTIUSD D1

The daily timeframe for WTI crude oil is currently moving near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range movement with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a smoother descending channel, reflecting longer-term bearish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 58, and its VB Low is at 30. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 50 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

WTI price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting bearish sentiment and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 77, and its VB Low is 37. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 57 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 50 with a curved channel to the upside, crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 46 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices fell on Friday due to the Fed's hawkish tone.

Gold prices on Friday drew a bearish candle with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 4046, a low of 3972, and a close of 4002. Gold prices reached their lowest point for the month of October on October 28th at 3886. Gold then rebounded to 4046 at the end of October.

Gold's decline over the weekend appeared to be triggered by several factors. In his post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of a December interest rate cut, saying it was not a foregone conclusion and emphasizing that policy decisions would remain data-dependent. Gold price movements also depended on the strength of the US dollar. The US dollar and Treasury yields remained strong after the Fed's cautious guidance, weighing on gold's rise, as traders reduced expectations of a rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended positively, providing some temporary relief from US-China trade tensions. Improving market sentiment is also a factor weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal.

The global market's next focus will likely be on Friday's NFP data and today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. However, both figures are currently tentative due to the potential impact of the US government shutdown.

Gold's daily movement is estimated to be in the range of $3935-$4080. Strong resistance is around 4140-4165; a breakout of this level could confirm a bullish trend. Strong support is around 3905-3935; a breakout of this level could confirm a deeper correction.

XAUUSD D1

Gold's daily price is below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 93, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 73. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 72 within a downward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 51 with a descending channel, indicating a weakening downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, with prices below the line indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 53, and its VB Low indicator is at 30. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 41 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

The Australian dollar is trending lower against the USD ahead of the RBA interest rate decision.

On Monday, November 3, the AUD/USD pair drew a small-bodied bearish candle with long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This candlestick pattern extended the previous four-day losing streak. AUD/USD formed a high of 0.6535, a low of 0.65176, and a close of 0.65381 from an open of 0.65413.

The main factor likely to drive the AUD/USD pair today is the RBA's interest rate decision. The market currently expects the RBA to maintain its cash rate at 3.60%. If the RBA ultimately cuts rates as expected, the focus will shift to the accompanying statement, or RBA rate statement, for subtle hints about the RBA's future policy tone. If the statement is hawkish, indicating the RBA remains wary of inflation, the implication is likely to be that the AUD will strengthen. If the RBA unexpectedly cuts rates, the AUD is likely to weaken sharply. Conversely, if the RBA unexpectedly raises rates, the Australian dollar could strengthen sharply.

Given the Australian economic backdrop, the higher-than-expected monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2025 has reduced market bets on further interest rate cuts in the near term and provided temporary support for the AUD. The market will also be closely monitoring other economic data from Australia this week, such as the trade balance. A larger trade surplus could support the AUD. This is because the AUD has a strong correlation with commodities such as copper and iron ore, with its strategic partner, China. If the global recovery strengthens, this could support the AUD.

The current pressure on the AUD is primarily due to the continued strength of the USD. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates soon are supporting the USD and putting pressure on the AUD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, has risen over the past five days, reflecting this strong performance. The DXY has currently reached 99.988. While the Chinese economy and commodity demand remain at risk, disappointing data could negatively impact the AUD.

Although several US economic data releases have been delayed due to the government shutdown, the market will continue to focus on this week's US employment report. Weak US data could pressure the USD, while stronger data could support it.

Price movements ahead of the RBA announcement are likely to be cautious. Key support is forecasted at 0.6480-0.6500, with key resistance at 0.6600-0.6610. The RBA interest rate decision is high-impact news, so strict risk management is required. Significant price movements could occur following the RBA announcement.

AUDUSD D1

The Australian dollar is currently moving slightly above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 59 and the VB Low is pointing at 37. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 48 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 49 with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 52 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

AUDUSD H4

The Australian dollar is trading between the middle and lower bands on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing an ascending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 76, and the VB Low is pointing at 38. The difference of 38 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 57 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 43, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 45 within a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD plummets to 0.56473, lowest since July 2025

The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.57095, a low of 0.56473, and a close of 0.56511.

Several reasons underpinning the New Zealand dollar's weakness include signs of cooling momentum in China's manufacturing sector, a key export market for New Zealand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The strengthening of the USD as a safe-haven currency has further pressured the New Zealand dollar. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six major currencies, showed an increase and successfully crossed the psychological level of 100.00.

The NZD exchange rate against the USD has been declining in recent days, even trending lower monthly since July.

According to data from the RBNZ, the trade-weighted index for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) recently experienced a slight decline from 66.60 to 66.24, indicating depreciation against its trading partner currencies. Analysts appear to be predicting a more bearish outlook for the NZD against the USD.

From an economic perspective, New Zealand is facing relatively weak growth, and the RBNZ has indicated that it could ease monetary policy further. For example, news related to the RBNZ's intention to cut interest rates and warn of further easing. A further drop in the RBNZ's interest rate would tend to weaken the NZD, as its yield relative to the USD becomes less attractive. Today, the market will focus on the release of Canadian economic news, which will focus on employment data. New Zealand's unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 5.2% to 5.3%. A higher reading would further pressure the NZD, while a lower reading could support the NZD in the short term.

The USD is currently relatively strong because US yields remain high and investors are seeking safe havens amid global uncertainty. US monetary policy and the Fed remain hawkish in many other countries, giving the USD an advantage. Global risk-off sentiment could support the USD and weaken commodity currencies like the NZD. Risks that could accelerate movements include US inflation or employment data, the RBNZ announcement, major changes in New Zealand exports or commodity conditions, and significant changes in global risk sentiment.

The NZDUSD price range today is estimated to move within the main support range of 0.5550 - 05820, with a realistic range of 0.5620 - 05740. If a positive catalyst occurs, such as better-than-expected New Zealand data, the price may rise to 0.5740. If a negative catalyst occurs, such as a weakening China or a stronger US, the price may break through the 0.5600 support level.

NZDUSD D1

The New Zealand dollar is currently moving below the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a narrow descending channel, reflecting bearish sentiment and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strengthening downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 47, and its VB Low is 29. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 38 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is 31 within a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 41 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

The New Zealand Dollar is moving near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a descending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strengthening downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 23. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 43 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 22 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 26 with a descending channel, indicating a sharp downtrend.