TradeLikeAPro
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Bitcoin has been hovering around the 30K mark for a second day, forcing the rest of the crypto market to balance declines and gains. Ethereum has lost 1.2% in 24 hours but remains near 2,000. Altcoins from the top ten are mostly declining, losing between 0.7% (DogeCoin) and 3.8% (Polkadot). Tron is gaining 1.7% but has been little changed since the end of last week. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 1.1% overnight to $1.29 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 44.3%.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 4 points to 12 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The index’s recovery from lows since 2019 is due to a waning selloff but not a market reversal to growth. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level and has also lost the momentum of the rebound at the 76.4% Fibonacci line from the downward move from late March to last Thursday’s lows.
This is a typical shallow counter-trend correction. The inability of the market to develop the offensive from the current levels would raise the question that the final target for the downtrend would be the 161.8% area of that move, which is near $11.3K. Such a setback would cancel out all upside momentum from October 2020. So far, this scenario looks exceptionally pessimistic and needs to converge the disappointment of crypto-neophytes on top of an actual collapse of the global economy and stock market. Such a dip would leave Bitcoin’s price at only 16% of its peak, which has happened several times in its history.
However, a significant drop below previous cyclical highs ($20K) would be unusual, although Bitcoin was previously repurchased on similar drawdowns. Perhaps a more cautious scenario would be a dip into the $20-23K area to close the gap at the end of 2020 or a return to the 2017 highs. The realist-optimistic scenario points to the possibility of cautious buying by long-term investors from current levels said Alex Kuptsikecich, a senior analyst from FxPro.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 4 points to 12 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The index’s recovery from lows since 2019 is due to a waning selloff but not a market reversal to growth. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level and has also lost the momentum of the rebound at the 76.4% Fibonacci line from the downward move from late March to last Thursday’s lows.
This is a typical shallow counter-trend correction. The inability of the market to develop the offensive from the current levels would raise the question that the final target for the downtrend would be the 161.8% area of that move, which is near $11.3K. Such a setback would cancel out all upside momentum from October 2020. So far, this scenario looks exceptionally pessimistic and needs to converge the disappointment of crypto-neophytes on top of an actual collapse of the global economy and stock market. Such a dip would leave Bitcoin’s price at only 16% of its peak, which has happened several times in its history.
However, a significant drop below previous cyclical highs ($20K) would be unusual, although Bitcoin was previously repurchased on similar drawdowns. Perhaps a more cautious scenario would be a dip into the $20-23K area to close the gap at the end of 2020 or a return to the 2017 highs. The realist-optimistic scenario points to the possibility of cautious buying by long-term investors from current levels said Alex Kuptsikecich, a senior analyst from FxPro.
