Amega - Daily Technical Analysis

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[Amega]

Review AUD/USD 13.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: it seems that the short-term bullish trend that has been lasting for the last few weeks is slowly returning to the medium-term bearish trend. The main economic news today is the decision of the FED interest rate, this event is often accompanied by abnormal volatility, and need to be ready for it. Today's speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe did not have a significant impact on the price.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend since 2011 is also bearish, so we are dealing with a fairly rare and strong trading signal – the coincidence of three trends. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions below 0.75500, cancel this script and switching to long positions - with the breakdown of the two-day high at 0.76232.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/JPY 14.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.500, the Japanese yen slightly went down. Medium – term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news in the US are retail sales and the "Retail control group".

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Since November 2017, the yen has been in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is closed, fractals are both above and below the red line – the situation is uncertain. We need to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and then follow it.

Trading recommendations: while we follow the bullish trend, which has not yet turned around reliably. Long positions above the level 110.843. If you go down, below $ 109.500 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 15.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: yesterday's collapse of the Euro by more than 200 points while continuing, prices are now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. The data on consumer price indices are the most important news on the European Union today.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - this is a signal for sales. Let's pay attention to the angle of bearish trend – it's a sharp angle, almost vertical, which indicates the strength of the trend.

Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, because we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - below 127.694, cancellation of this scenario and long positions - above 130.338.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EURUSD 18.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar is more than noticeable (300 points almost one day on June 14) strengthened. Important economic news for the USA are expected today evening speeches from several FED officials.

Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's fall, after last Thursday's collapse, is still revealed down. Prices are close to the support levels 1.15000 – 155000, that is, to the May lows. Note that at the moment, technical factors are secondary - market volatility is caused primarily by fundamental factors, namely, "trade wars" between the leading economies of the world: the US, China and the EU.

Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend. Short positions below 1.15500, canceling this scenario and moving to long positions above 1.17000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

A comprehensive analysis of GBP/USD for 18.04.2018 22.04.2018

In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will review the main fundamental and technical factors, as well as give trading recommendations for GBPUSD. This currency pair is extremely volatile and unpredictable, however, we get a large profit on the powerful price movements.
The previous week, from 11 to 15 June, was bearish for GBPUSD:

The week was full of news and political events, which affected the volatility. In particular, the us declared duties in the "trade war" with China - more than significantly strengthened the dollar. We believe that the response from China will not be long in coming, which means that we need to be ready for abnormal volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of GBPUSD has been bearish for 11 years, since January 2007. There are some signs of a possible reversal: since October 2016 and the whole of 2017, the price basically went up. This trend continued at the beginning of this year 2018, but the last two months (medium-term trend) for the pound were bearish. Therefore, we consider the bearish forecast as the most likely.

Option № 1 - continuation of the bearish trend
Pay attention to the chart D1-highlighted the classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders".

The mouth of the "Alligator" is open down, most fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – this is a signal to sell. A reasonable solution would be short positions below the fresh low at 1.32109.

Option № 2 - bullish trend
As we have already noted, the main role is played by fundamental factors-political news within the "trade wars" between the leading world powers. You need to be prepared for a sharp price movement up. On the weekly chart, the "Alligator" bullish trend, which began in 2017, did not turn around reliably - we will not ignore it. This scenario and the corresponding long positions are considered when fixing the price above 1.333500.

Option № 3 - flat
The least likely option, however, if we do not see the trade signals for buying (selling) confirming each other, it will be more reasonable to stay out of the market, waiting for the appropriate time.

Fundamental analysis
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:
Monday 18 June
• FOMC Members Duke, Bostic and Williams speech
Tuesday 19 June
• Building Permits Change (USA)
• Building Permits (USA)
Wednesday 20 June
• Fed's Powell Speech
• Existing Home Sales (USA)
Thursday 21 June
• BoE Interest Rate Decision
• Monetary Policy Summary (Britain)
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
• BOE's Governor Carney speech

Before the news - be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.
Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

 

[Amega]

Review USD/CAD 19.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which received a powerful impetus during the avalanche strengthening of the dollar on Thursday, June 14, continues its development. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. From the news on the US today - Building Permits Change and Building Permits.

Technical analysis: on the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, all fractals above the red line are a buy signal. While such price spikes have inexperienced traders it is often tempting to play on a pullback down. In fact, such a breakthrough indicates the readiness of the price to move in this direction - up. In your imagination, no one doubts, but-do not try to see the "top" where it is not.

Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend, long positions when the price moves above 1.32500, short positions below 1.29500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 20.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the weakening of the Euro against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar continues, the price of EURJPY is now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. Among the important news on the EU today is the speech of the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - when the price moves below 126.636, cancellation of this scenario and long positions – when the price is fixed above the level of 128.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USDCHF 21.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc is slowly getting to the psychologically important mark of 1.00000, it is possible to predict significant volatility, and as a result – the opportunity to make good money. As a rule, near the levels with "round figures" price movements are the most powerful – level breakout or rebound, according to the situation. Today, from the important news in the US - the initial applications for unemployment benefits. Today's press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland and the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland on the interest rate had no significant impact on the price.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart –the Alligator's mouth is open up, and the price seems (but is not) too high, intuitively I want to play on a roll - down. And this may be a trap, because the trend (and the medium – term trend-bullish) is likely to continue than unfold.

Trading recommendations: follow the bullish trend. Long positions above 1.00000, short positions when the price pulls back below the level of 0.99000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review GBP/JPY 22.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: for the fifth month (since February), the currency pair GBPJPY is in a medium – term bearish trend-you need to be ready for a reversal. Of the main fundamental factors on the price is now affected by the procedure Brexit. Important economic news on
England and Japan is not expected today.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend that began in summer 2007 has not yet turned around, although it is close to it. Let's pay attention to the D1 chart - the Alligator's fall is revealed downwards, although the short-term trend is bullish-the situation is uncertain.

Trading recommendations: a reasonable solution is to wait for the development of the current market situation. Long positions - after the true breakout of the resistance level at 146.500. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, short positions - with the breakdown of the level 144.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA