Amega - Daily Technical Analysis

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 12.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: now we are seeing a pronounced short-term bullish trend. From important news on the EU today we expect information about the ECB meeting on monetary policy.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, pay attention to an important psychological point - the price rests on the upper edge of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. A powerful breakthrough says not about the imminent turn, but about the readiness of the price to move in this direction.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 131.383. Cancel this scenario and respectively short positions below the level 129.890.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review of LTC cryptocurrency on 13.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: most of cryptocurrency is now in a downtrend and LTC is no exception. Since January 2018, the trend is bearish, the price goes down powerfully from the top to 370.59, falling more than five times – to 70.99. We believe that the cryptocurrency "boom" has passed its peak, investors are accustomed to a new commodity exchange, have become more sophisticated. But in this situation, to play on the decline may be a good trading idea.

Technical analysis: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the bearish trend, provided a reliable breakdown of the resistance level 72.89.

Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions below 72.89. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, long positions - above 79.82. Do not forget, with such a volatile financial instrument, risk management comes to the first place. Protect your positions, do not let the losses be more profit.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EURUSD 16.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar has consistently strengthened its position. In General, prices are now at annual lows. Today's important news is the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Helsinki, as well as a package of news on the US – information on retail sales.

Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. Pay attention to the H4 chart: the Alligator lines are intertwined, so it often happens when the trend changes. Prices rebounded from resistance at 1.16118 and went up.

Trading recommendations: we need to give the situation time to develop and prove itself. Short positions can be viewed below 1.16118. Cancel this scenario and transition to a long position above the 1.17587.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/USD 30.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc traded close to the psychologically important level of 1.00000. "Trade wars", as the most significant factor for the volatility of the us dollar, have been a little quiet lately, as a result, the volatility is also decreasing. Important economic news on the US and Switzerland is not expected today.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator lines have been intertwined for the third week in a row, there is no pronounced trend. Also note that the chart begins to emerge classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders". Many traders will want to play down – and this may turn out to be a trap.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions below 0.98921. Long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.99655.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 31.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: short-term bearish trend has turned around, prices are moving up again. Today promises to be interesting – a lot of important news on the European Union and Japan – and therefore will be able to earn on volatility. Japan: news (a BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and the BoJ Interest Rate Decision) pushed the price up significantly. Europe: we expect the value of Gross Domestic Product, as well as the Consumer Price Index.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, we will pay attention to the behavior of the Alligator: the lines are intertwined, and the candles consistently break through all three lines. This happens when you change the trend.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 130.504. Cancellation of this scenario and correspondingly short positions - below the level of 129.193.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 30.07.2018 for 03.08.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will review the main fundamental and technical factors that affect the USDCHF, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.
Last week, from 23 to 27 July, the Swiss franc was trading in line with the short-term bullish trend:

This week, the US Federal reserve will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

Option № 1 - bullish trend
Let's pay attention to the D1 chart: for two consecutive months, in June and July, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Prices are near the important psychological mark of 1.00000. This happens when the trend is broken, before the powerful price movements. You have to be prepared for this.

Long positions are considered when the price moves above 0.99777.

Option № 2 - bearish trend
The H4 chart shows a short-term bearish trend since mid-July. And it hasn't really turned around yet.

Short positions are possible when the true breakout of the level of 0.99036.

Option № 3 - side price movement
Not ruling out this option if strong trading signals on the buying (selling) will not remain out of the market.

Fundamental analysis
The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Tuesday, July 31, 2018
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
• ADP Employment Change (USA)
• Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
• Fed Interest Rate Decision
• Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program
• Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program
Thursday, August 2, 2018
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
Friday, August 3, 2018
• Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
• Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
• Trade Balance (USA)
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)

Before the news should be ready for a powerful price fluctuations.
Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

 

[Amega]

Review AUD/USD 7.08.2018

Long-term trend: Bear

Medium-term trend: Bear

After the price is fixed below control resistance zone №1 0.74013-0.73951 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market with the aim to target zone 0.73388-0.73263. The probability of reaching this zone is about 70%. The best selling prices have already been received from control resistance zone №2 0.74385-0.74323. Price growth is considered like corrective.

Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position from control resistance zone №3 0.74166-074104 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». In case of the price is fixed upper control resistance zone №3 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.
The resistance zone 0.73822-0.73791 and control resistance zone №3 are constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1/3.

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review NZD/USD 9.08.2018

Long-term trend: Bear

Medium-term trend: Bear

After the price is fixed below the control resistance zone №1 0.67953-0.67898 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market. After the price has rebounded the control resistance zone №2 the price has already reached the target zone №1 0.67403-0.67293 and the target zone №2 0.66743-0.66688 with the potential to reach the target zone №3 0.66193-0.66083. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone №2 0.67242-0.67187. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone №2 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendations:
It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone №2 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders».
The control resistance zone №2 is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.
All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/USD 17.08.2018

Long-term trend: Bearish

Medium-term trend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. Any price growth is considered like corrective. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.15622-1.15438, the target zone №2 1.14518-1.14426 and the target zone №3 1.13598-1.13414. The next aim is the target zone №4 1.12494-1.12402. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position after any corrective movement with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926.
The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/USD 20.08.2018
Medium-term trend: Bullish
After the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone №1 1.14018-1.13926 the medium-term trend has changed to the bull market with the aim to the target zone 1.15030-1.14846. The probability of reaching the target zone is about 80%. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone №2 1.13525-1.13433. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone №2 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:
It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone №2 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders».
The control resistance zone №2 is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.
All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.
Target zone:
Internal border – Maintenance margin size in points
External border – Initial margin in points

Control resistance zone ¬¬– the half from the target zone
Resistance zone – the quarter of the target zone

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA