Amega - Daily Technical Analysis

[Amega]

Review EUR/USD 04.06.2018
Fundamental analysis: last week, the Euro was trading in different directions, slightly slowing down after two consecutive bearish months. In total, during this time the rate fell by 10%, usually such indicators are typical for the data for the year. Today's economic news - the change in the number of unemployed in Spain – did not have a significant impact on the price.
Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open down, and for a month and a half, all fractals (both bullish and bearish) are located below the red line – this is a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend, despite the bullish correction. Markets tend to go to the limit, and traders tend to look for the "bottom" where it is not. Short positions below 1.16000, cancel this scenario and move to long positions above 1.17500.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 05.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: currently, EURJPY is in a short-term bullish trend, against the background of a noticeable strengthening of the Euro in the last few weeks. From the important news on the EU today – the ECB President Draghi's Speech.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, fractals are above the red line - this is also a signal to buy.

Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend - the coincidence of short-term, medium-term and long-term trends is a rare and strong trading signal. Long positions above 128.729, cancellation of this scenario and short positions below 127.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

A comprehensive analysis of the EUR/USD with 04.06.2018 for 08.06.2018

In this comprehensive review, we will look at the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the movement of EURUSD.
During the previous trading week, from May 28 to June 1, the Euro traded in different directions:

In early June, several important government decisions are expected, within the framework of the "trade war" between the US and China, which has been lasting for more than the first month. It is possible to predict a significant volatility, and therefore the opportunity to make a good profit.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of EURUSD is bearish, since 2008.
The medium-term bullish trend (the entire 2017 currency pair was going up) seems to be slowly turning to bearish:

Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend
The short-term EURUSD trend is bullish, the price has broken through several daily highs in a row. Perhaps the trend will continue in favor of this option says fall "Alligator" on the H4 chart open up. The most powerful bearish trend, for the last two months in a row (when the price fell from 1.25000 to 1.15000) forever lasts can not, and seems to be replaced by a bullish correction.

Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend
In favor of this option, we note that the trend is still bearish on the higher time frames (weekly and above). In April and may, prices went down at a very sharp angle, almost steeply, this indicates the strength of the trend. A powerful price movement rarely turns so fast (in a week), as a rule, it takes more time.

Option № 3 – flat
This option is not excluded, we must be ready for it too. If there are no significant (confirming each other) trading signals to buy (sell) –we remain outside the market, waiting for a favorable moment. Unnecessary movements are much more dangerous for your trading account than the lack of open positions.

Fundamental analysis
The key events of the economic calendar this week include the following:

Tuesday 5 June
-ECB President Draghi's Speech
-JOLTS Job Openings (USA)
-ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)
Wednesday 6 June
-Trade Balance (USA)
Thursday 7 June
-Gross Domestic Product (European Union)
-Initial Jobless Claims (USA)

Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. We try to "keep abreast" of the market, follow our daily reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/CAD 06.06.2018
Fundamental analysis: the Canadian dollar has been in a short-term bullish trend since April 18. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, from the important news on Canada – Building Permits, as well as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. In addition, a significant factor is the us deployed "trade wars", which affected Canada. News about mutual duties and comments of politicians affect volatility.
Technical analysis: note that on the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, and most fractals above the red line – so we are not talking about a reliable reversal of the bullish trend. Most traders make mistakes on small time charts, when "the forest is not visible behind the trees", and the usual correction can be taken as a trend reversal. Not deceive.

Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bullish trend, long positions - when the price moves above 1.30662, short positions - below two-day low at 1.29000.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review NZD/USD 07.06.2018
Fundamental analysis: the short-term trend of the New Zealand dollar is now bullish, it seems that the medium-term bearish trend that began in April is slowly turning around. Of the important economic news in the US today - the Initial Jobless Claims.
Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2009, perhaps, now we are seeing one of the best trading opportunities – when the short-term and medium-term trends return to the trend of the long-term. Just this week – about a dozen taps and false breakouts resistance level 0.70500. Usually after such a long "probing" level there are powerful price movements.

Trading recommendations: priority to long positions, follow the bullish trend. Cancel this scenario and move to short positions – with a reliable breakout of the two-day low 0.69968.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/JPY 08.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.000 Japanese yen went down. Medium-term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news on Japan - the Current Account n.s.a. - pushed the price down a little.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Starting from November 2017, the yen is in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth closed at the end of May, and remains in this state until now. A reasonable solution would be to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and follow it.

Trading recommendations: while we follow a bullish trend, a long position in a valid breakout of the level of 110.000. When moving down below the two - day low by 109.000 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review GOLD/USD 11.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: over the past five days we have seen five false breakouts of the intermediate resistance level at 1300.000 – this is called the "resistance zone", and in such cases there is often a breakthrough in the opposite direction (in our case – below 1290.000). You should be prepared for this scenario. There are no important economic news on the US today.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend, which began in September 2011, is likely to slowly turn to a bullish one since the end of 2015. On the W1 chart, the Alligator's mouth, previously open up, is now looking down. Although the nervous political environment of recent times (in particular, the "summit of discord" of the G7 countries and the ongoing "trade wars") can make adjustments to this technical vision of the situation.

Trading recommendations: the situation is not obvious, so without reliable trading signals it is better to refrain from entering the market. Short positions - below 1293.283, long positions - above the two-day high at 1303.076.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 11.06.2018 for 15.06.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will consider the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the USDCHF currency pair, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.
Last week, from 4 to 8 June, the Swiss franc was trading in different directions, in a narrow price range 0.98000-0.99000:

Held in Switzerland on June 10, the referendum rejected the initiative "Live money" (75.7% of the vote against 24.3%), however, a significant impact on the market price this event has not had. This week, the FED will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend
On the chart D1 there is a bearish correction of the bullish trend, down after a false breakout of an important psychological level 1.00000. In such a situation, it is psychologically more comfortable to play on the rollback, taking 1.05000 for the "top". However, the trend is more likely to continue than turn around, and a reliable reversal of the bullish trend can not be considered yet. Long positions can be considered when the price moves above 0.99000.

Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend
On the H4 chart, the short-term bearish trend that has been lasting since mid-may is clearly seen, the price consistently updates the daily and weekly lows. Time will show whether it is a reliable reversal or just a correction. While the situation is not obvious, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Short positions are possible with a true breakout of 0.98000.

Option № 3 - side price movement
The least likely option, however, if there are no strong buy (sell) trading signals – we remain outside the market, waiting for the right moment.

Fundamental analysis
The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:
Tuesday 12 June
• Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (USA)
Wednesday 13 June
• FOMC Economic Projections
• Fed's Powell Speech
• Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
• Fed Interest Rate Decision
• FOMC Press conference
Thursday 14 June
• Swiss National Bank press conference
• Retail Sales control group (USA)
• Retail Sales (USA)
• Retail Sales ex Autos (USA)
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
Friday 15 June
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)

Before this news, be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

 

[Amega]

Review USD/CHF 12.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the medium-term bullish trend of the Swiss franc seems to be slowly unfolding before our eyes, prices consistently update daily and weekly lows. Today, the consumer price index excluding food and energy products is one of the most important news in the US.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator's mouth opened down again after the lines intertwined. In addition, most fractals are below the red line – a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions - below 0.98000, long positions - when securing the price above 0.99000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[fu84ad]