Amega - Daily Technical Analysis

[Amega]

Review NZD/USD 13.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: the current week for the New Zealand dollar was bullish, and the price continues to confidently break through the daily highs, striving for 0.74000. Today's news on USD - JOLTS Job Openings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech - can significantly affect the course.

Technical analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which started on March 20 from 0.71516, continues. The medium - term trend is also bullish, starting in November 2017 from 0.67779-has not yet unfolded. On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» indicator that has «opened its mouth» upwards is clearly visible.

Trading recommendations: long-term trend of NZDUSD is bullish since 2009. Thus, we are dealing with a strong trading signal - unidirectional movement of three trends. Priority - long positions, if the movement continues above 0.74000. Cancel this script and switching to short positions in the breakdown of the level 0.73455.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/USD 16.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week, the EURUSD was traded mixed. The third day in a row does not come out of the narrow price corridor 1.23000 – 1.23500, it is not typical for this highly volatile currency pair. This happens usually in front of a powerful trend. Today is full of important news in the United States - Retail Sales ex Autos; Retail Sales control group; Retail Sales, and FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic speech.

Technical analysis: long-term trend - bearish since 2008. The price could not break the resistance level 1.24000. The «Alligator» indicator on H1 chart «closed its jaws» is a recommendation to fix the profit and be ready to change the trend.

Trading recommendations: due to the abundance of important news – the day is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a good opportunity to earn. We consider selling below 1.23000. At the breakout of the resistance at 1.24000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review EUR/JPY 18.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: the third week in a row, the EURJPY is up, updating the weekly and daily highs. For the whole year, from April 17, 2017, the medium – term trend is bullish. Of the important news on the European Union today - the Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index - Core.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2012. It is not yet clear whether the resistance level at 132.500 is a true breakthrough. The H4 chart shows signs of a possible downtrend reversal: the bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes, the «Alligator» closes its mouth.

Trading recommendations: we need to let the situation prove itself. Long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 133.000, short position at the breakout of the two-day low at 132.090.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/JPY 20.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: observed short-term bullish trend since March 22, the upward movement from the "bottom" in the area 104.626. Today's news package on Japan - National Consumer Price Index -pushed market quotes up to 107.728. From the important news on the dollar today, the FOMC Member Williams speech.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Since November 2017 yen in the medium-term bearish trend. In the H4 chart, we note that bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes.

Trading recommendations: special attention near the resistance level of 107.500 and on the news is likely to rebound after a false breakout. With a reliable movement down below 107.000 move to short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/CHF 24.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: medium-term trend - for the third consecutive month bullish, from February 16, the Swiss franc pushed away from the "bottom" in the area of 0.91851 and confidently goes up. This indicates the strength of the trend. Important news today – new home sales in the United States.

Technical analysis: long-term trend-bearish since 2000, 18 years. Perhaps now we are seeing a slow reversal, since 2011 the pair is trading in a relatively narrow (for MN chart) price range from 0.70444 to 1.03458. Note also that in the H4 chart the «Аlligator» indicator confidently "opened the fall" upwards, thereby confirming the bullish trend.

Trading recommendations: we follow the medium – term bullish trend-long positions in priority, when the price moves above 0.98000. Cancel this script and switching to short positions when the authentic two-day break of at least 0.97060.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review NZD/USD 25.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: for the third week in a row for the New Zealand dollar becomes bearish, the price powerfully and practically without kickbacks goes down from the top near 0.73958. Today in New Zealand Bank holiday, in connection with the celebration of ANZAC Day (national holiday of Australia and New Zealand), because extreme volatility is not expected..

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2009. The medium - term trend is also bullish, starting in November 2017 from 0.67779, it has not turned around yet. Let's pay attention to an important psychological moment, just on two charts – H4 and H1 – the price somehow rests on the bottom of the screen, it seems (but is not) too low, provoking inexperienced traders to play against the trend. In this situation, each bullish candle (on M15 or M30) can be taken for the beginning of a reversal – but we advise you not to hurry. The search for the "bottom" often ends in failure.

Trading recommendations: while the priority of short positions, follow the trend, consider the possibility of sales below 0.70000. Cancel this scenario and the transition to the long positions after the breakdown of the two-day minimum on 0.72090.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/JPY 27.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: for more than a month, since March 23, there is a short-term bullish trend, moving up from the "bottom" in the area of 104.626. Today from news on Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision and BoJ Press Conference. Important news for the USA: Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Since November 2017 yen in the medium-term bearish trend. In the H4 chart, we note that the bullish trend is supported by volumes, the «Alligator» has opened its fall upwards.

Trading recommendations: at H1 chart, «Аlligator» is the second day of the "buried past", it is a signal to lock in profits. Special attention is paid to the resistance level of 109.500 and to the news, which is abundant today. With a reliable downward movement below the two - day low of 108.814-the transition to short positions.


Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review USD/CAD 1.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: the sixth day in a row USDCAD is trading in a narrow price corridor 1.28000-1.29000, so happens before powerful price movements. We do not forget about the medium-term bullish trend that began in September 2017. Today from news on the Canadian dollar – BoC Governor Poloz Speech.

Technical analysis: USDCAD has tried twice unsuccessfully to break the resistance level at 1.2900 over the past week. H4 chart shows «Аlligator» closed its mouth, besides bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes.

Trading recommendations: long – term bullish trend since 2011, and the price movement coincides with the strategic trend-the most reliable. However, there are some signs of a possible reversal of the short-term bullish trend. Long positions - above 1.29000, short positions-when breaking the two-day low at 1.28032.


Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

 

[Amega]

A comprehensive overview USDJPY 30.04.2018 for 04.05.2018

This comprehensive weekly review will address the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the USDJPY rate as well as trade recommendations.
The previous week, from 23 to 27 April, was bullish for the Japanese yen as a whole. Most of the time the trade was in a narrow price range from 109,000 to 109.500:

Note also that on the H1 chart the indicator "Alligator" for the third day in a row, "closed jaw", in such cases it is recommended to take profits and be ready for a trend change.

Technical analysis
Long-term trend of USDJPY is bullish in 2012. Medium-term bearish trend, the price from March 10 goes down from the top 115.517. The short-term trend, as we have already noted, is also bullish, so consider this forecast as the most likely. Coincidence of long-term and short-term trends is a good trading signal.

Option # 1 – the continuation of the bullish trend
On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» that has opened its mouth upwards is clearly visible:

We should also note the psychological moment-now many traders, after such a powerful and long price movement up, instinctively begin to look for the top in the area of the resistance level 109.500. In addition, the price seems to rest on the top edge of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. In such a situation, you want to play down on the rollback, and it often turns out to be a trap.

Option # 2-reversal of bearish trend
Do not forget that the medium-term trend is still bearish. So, you need to be ready for a sharp change of trend. This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 108.500. The daily chart clearly shows that most recently (in March) the yen was trading around 104.595 – we will not ignore it.

Option # 3 - flat
Do not exclude this option, if confirming each other trading signals to buy (sell) will not – remain out of the market. A new fed rate will be announced during the week, as a rule, this event is accompanied by extreme volatility. Therefore, the flat is unlikely.

Fundamental analysis
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Monday 30 April
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
Wednesday 2 May
• ADP Employment Change (USA)
• Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
• Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday 3 May
• Trade Balance (USA)
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)
Friday 4 May
• Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
• Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
• FOMC Member John C. Williams speech

Before the news – be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[Amega]

Review GBP/USD 2.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: starting from April 17 GBPUSD is in a strong bearish trend, from the level of 1.43774 the price fell down by almost 8 000 ticks (such trading opportunities happen not every month). Traders who have short positions and have been able to follow the trend - for the last two weeks have made excellent money. Our forecasts for the trend reversal were justified. From important news on the US today: the ADP Employment Change, and most importantly - the Fed Interest Rate Decision. You can confidently predict good volatility, and hence the possibility of a good profit.

Technical analysis: long – term bearish trend lasts from 2008, perhaps the closest historical minimum of 2016 – 1.13772 mark-the price passed, if it did not notice. This indicates the strength of the trend. On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» perfectly «opened the fall» downwards, and the price "rests" on the bottom of the screen. This is a vivid example of market psychology (the expression of which are the graphics) – now I want to find the "bottom" in the area of 1.36000 and play up the rollback – and it can be a trap.

Trading recommendations: follow the bearish trend. When the price moves below 1.36000-sales, above the two - day high of 1.37938-purchases. Be prepared for extreme volatility: observe risk management, protect profitable orders with stop-loss.


Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA