On the daily chart, although the New Zealand dollar retreated from 0.7180 to 0.6964, as price has rebounded from there, suggesting as long as this support holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains and break of said resistance would bring stronger rebound to indicated upside target at 0.7221 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7635 to 0.6807) and possibly towards 0.7319 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but reckon key resistance at 0.7445 would continue to hold.
"P&F NZDUSD1440 Box Size 1250X3 or(5.91%) HI/LO
Data 0.8214 - 0.4485 ~ 93 Month ~ 2809 Day
Database 2000 records 0.70291 (Last Close) 2002-07-30 00~00 2010-04-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
GBPCAD Review and Outlook
=========================
GBPCAD=GbpUsdXUsdCad
GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week's decline, March's high crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm a short-term low has been posted.
Long term bias for the USD/CAD bearish, the weekly close below 1,0250 signals further declines. Forming a base around parity.
"P&F GBPCAD1440 Box Size 300X3 or(4.65%) HI/LO
Data 2.3563 - 1.5115 ~ 58 Month ~ 1762 Day
Database 1303 records 1.5535 (Last Close) 2005-06-23 00~00 2010-04-20 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
Despite dipping to 1.4294 briefly, there was no follow through selling and EUR/CHF recovered back into familiar range. Outlook is turned neutral again and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4294 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.
"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 100X3 or(1.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6827 - 1.4144 ~ 92 Month ~ 2811 Day
Database 2000 records 1.43556 (Last Close) 2002-08-16 00~00 2010-04-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
Since the middle of March, the GBP/CHF has been gaining along a bullish Fibonacci fan. After crossing the horizontal resistance around 1.6645, the pair reached the upward resistance line. If the pair does not pass the bullish resistance line, we might see a pull-back downside, where we have the support levels.
"P&F GBPCHF1440 Box Size 30X3 or(4.49%) HI/LO
Data 2.4965 - 1.511 ~ 93 Month ~ 2808 Day
Database 2000 records 1.61685 (Last Close) 2002-08-29 00~00 2010-05-07 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
After crossing the bearish trend line inside the upward trend channel, the NZD/USD pulled back from its horizontal resistance line around 0.7310. It was the markets' fifth touch with the lower line of the channel before it recovered back to its current price. If the market breaks the horizontal resistance around 0.7310, we might see further gains. Otherwise, it might continue its bullish zigzag phase inside the bullish channel.
"P&F NZDUSD1440 Box Size 125X3 or(5.83%) HI/LO
Data 0.8214 - 0.4644 ~ 93 Month ~ 2811 Day
Database 2000 records 0.71823 (Last Close) 2002-08-30 00~00 2010-05-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
Trade Idea: EURNZD - Sell at 1.800 Target: 1.6400, Stop: 1.8200
=============================================
We are going into a period of potentially unusual price action at the beginning
of the week. An extended holiday for US, UK and New Zealand markets will warp
liquidity which could lead to untimely breakouts or simply a drop back into
congestion bands. This presents significant risk to all range-based strategies;
but EURNZD may have a better grounding for holding its congestion.
"P&F EURNZD1440 Box Size 300X3 or(4.27%) HI/LO
Data 2.5792 - 1.6343 ~ 84 Month ~ 2562 Day
Database 1833 records 1.7729 (Last Close) 2003-05-07 00~00 2010-05-12 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
Trade Idea: AUD/CAD - Sell Limit at 0.8790; Target: 0.8560 ; Stop: 0.8840.
=================================================================
The AUD/CAD has been trading close to a bearish trend-line since the beginning of 2010 and boosted
this trend in May once again. But it fell to a multi month low yesterday at 0.8668. Now it seems
that the currency pair may try to build a basement around this level. The CCI recovered near its -
100 level and the RSI indicator may suggest an oversold market adding signs that the bulls could
try to cross the stronger bearish trend-line.
