Today's Market View (IB Analists)

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - USDJPY

by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst)

The statement of FOMC and published instruction made market participants review their expectations on interest rate change in the US. Possibility of interest rate decreace in August is significantly reduced and American state bonds became less profitable that exerts pressure on the currency course of greenbacks. Therefore the possibility of interest rate increase in September remains high.

The future market expects Federal fund rise 25 basic punkts in this moment with 33% possibility. Before FOMC the percentage was 48%. 100% expectation is shown on interest rate up in September.

[USDJPY]

Daily Stochastic points out downward trand after turing from overbuy zone and break out failure near February maxima. 10-day momentum signals risks of position correction.

RES3 Y109.95 50% Fibonacci Retracement, maximum of 09.dec.2006
RES2 Y109.50 2% envelope
RES1 Y108.16 maximum of 14 feb., 1% envelope

Current rate: Y108.11 (09:54 CET)

SUP1 Y107.80 5-day and 10-day moving averages
SUP2 Y107.13/08 minimum of 20 June, 21-day moving average
SUP3 Y106.57 38.20 % Fibonacci Retracement
SUP4 Y106.34 200-day moving average
SUP5 Y106.01 1% envelope



Click here to the official website of IFC Markets

Economic Calendar

26-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the trade terminal

00:45 New Zealand Current Account Q1 Qtr 1 Bln -1.655 -3.41 -2.16

00:45 New Zealand Current Account Q1 year Bln -13.25 -13.83 -13.79

08:00 Germany Import Prices mm May % 1.4 0.9 2.4

08:00 Germany Import Prices yy May % 6.8 5.7 7.9

08:45 France Consumer Confidence June -42 -41 -46

10:00 Euro Zone Private Loans May % 10.3 10.6

10:45 United Kingdom Inflation Report May

14:30 United States Core PCE Q1 Qtr 1 % 2.1 2.1

14:30 United States GDP P Deflator Qtr 1 % 2.6 2.6

14:30 United States GDP Q1 q/q Qtr 1 % 1 0.9

14:30 United States Jobless Claims w/e k 380 381

14:30 United States PCE Q1 Qtr 1 % 3.5 3.5

16:00 United States Home Sales May Mln 4.93 4.89

16:00 United States Home Sales May % -1

17:00 United States K C FED June 0

17:00 United States Midwest MFG May 105.7

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EURUSD

EURUSD has as before an upward trend. The expectation that US-conjunction data published in this week can fall below consensus and the increase of interest rate of EU Centralbank on Thursday may make the currency course climb up more strongly. In the Asian session EURUSD traded in a narrow range. After breaking thorugh the level $ 1.5800 and trades now at the level of $ 1.5830, demonstrating an ascending movement. Dealers speak about general weakening of US currency, which was caused by new attempts of rising price on oil quoted now $142.32 for barell. From the point of veiw of traders dollar selling is observed at the level from $1.5815 to $1.5850. While the European common currency remains relatively below, the historical high of $1.6020 remains in security.

From the point of technical analysis view daily stochastic exists on the overbough area, which signals risks of correction in short-term perspective. It is confirmed by momentum, approaching to 100-point level on short-term charts. Inspite of these risk factores the daily indicators point out ascending movement in the long run. A barrier of further upward movement may be massive resistance at the level of $1.5845. A support line is at $1.5750.

RES 4: $1.6020 maximum of 22.April
RES 3: $1.5871 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $1.5950 2% envelope
RES 1: $1.5840 maximum of 9 June

Current quotation: $1.5800

SUP 1: $1.5750 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5620 10-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5570 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5467/90 minimum of 18, 19, 23 June, 1% envelope

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

30-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual


Time is CET and that of the trade terminal

03:15 Japan PMI Manufacturing June 47.7 46

09:00 Japan Construction Orders May % -8.4 -25.2

09:00 Japan House Starts May % -3.8 -8.7 -6.5

12:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit May Bln 1 1.122R 1.376

12:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals May k 51 58 42

12:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Lending Data May Bln 6 6.151R 4.073

13:00 Euro Zone Inflation Report June % 3.9 3.7 4

16:30 Canada GDP m/m April % 0.3 -0.2

17:00 United States NAPM-NY April -- -- 419.8

17:45 United States Chicago PMI April -- 48 49.1

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - USDJPY

by Praful Narain (Technical Analyst)

In Asian Forex Market the Japanese Yen was climbing up and traded at the level of Y105. In the second half of market against the background of the widespread rumour that some institutions would be ranked down and the oil price moved up $1 the currency pair the Japanese currency extended gains against the greenbacks. The statement of RBA, Australian central bank, which seemed soft to traders, leaded Yen-strengthening against Australian Dollar.

EURJPY demonstrated falling to the European session on Monday. In the Asian session the European common currency traded in the narrow range between Y167.05 and 39. But at the beginning of the European session Euro extended losses and was down to Y166.50 and was now recovered to the level of 166.70.

Daily stochastic fell down into oversold zone that point out increasing risks of correction of currency course. Daily momentum still exits on the negative zone and continues bear’s trend. But some factors show risks of recovering the course.

RES3: 107.15 21-day moving average
RES2: 106.30 maximum of 09 Jun.
RES1: 106.07, 24 1% envelope and 5-day moving average

current price : Y105.73

SUP1: 105.52 50-day moving average, 74% Fibonacci retracement
SUP2: 105.06 minimum of 06 Jun.
SUP3: 104.52, 43 minimum of 08 and 01 Jun.
SUP4: 103.64 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Economic Calendar

01-Jul-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

*Time is CET and that of the trade terminal
*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important

***01:50 Japan Tankan Capex Estimate Qtr2 % 2 -1.6 2.4

**01:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Qtr2 3 11 5

***06:30 Australia RBA Rate Decision July % 7.25 7.25 7.25

***08:00 Germany Retail Prices m/m May % 0.5 -0.6 1.3

**08:00 Germany Retail Prices y/y May % -1 -0.2 0.7

***08:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Price m/m June % -1 -2.5 -0.9

***08:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Price y/y June % -6.2 -4.4 -6.3

**09:30 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing June 54.7 55.7 54.9

**09:55 Germany PMI Manufacturing June 52.3 53.6 52.6

***10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate June % 7.9 7.9 7.8

**10:00 Germany Unemployment - Change June k -11 4 -38

**10:00 Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing June 49.1 50.6 49.2

**10:30 United Kingdom PMI Manufacturing June 49.8 49.5R 45.8

***11:00 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate May % 7.1 7.2R 7.2

*15:55 United States Redbook mm w/e % -- -0.7

*15:55 United States Redbook yy w/e % -- 2.8

**16:00 United States Construction Spending May % -0.6 -0.4

**16:00United States ISM Manufacturing June -- 48.649.6

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View

by Premlesh Pal Singh (Chief Analyst)

In European session yesterday USDJPY is quoted in a narrow range. At the beginning the greenbacks traded at Y105.80 as short covering and dollar-buying against the single European currency. But the American dollar hit a low at Y105.30 as the European and American stock fell. After recording the low the American dollar recovered to Y105.50 by Cross-Yen buy. The Euro hit a high at $1.5810 as traders sold the Dollar against the Euro. The Euro-rising is supported by climbing oil price in future markets. The Japanese Yen moved up against the Euro to Y166.10 as the Yen extended gains versus the greenbacks, but the Euro rebounded to the level at Y166.60 as the single European currency rose against the Dollar.

The Euro is much in demand before the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders speak about purchase of the single European currency by long-term European investors and short-term hedge funds, expecting the rate up in the Euro zone tomorrow. In this moment the Euro against the Dollar moved up to $1.5840. The EURJPY which fell to the level Y157.10 rebounded to the level of Y158.30. In EURUSD offers are at the level of $1.5840/50 with stops at 1.5840. The level at $1.5844 is the high in a rally between 1.5285 and 1.6020 from 8 Jun. The level of $1.5847 is the same as 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement from the historical high at $1.6020 to $1.5285. From the point of fundamental view there is option barrier and stop orders above. Much offers are in the rage between 1.5880/00.

From the point of technical view the Euro tested the level of $1.5840/47, which is the high and Fibonacci level as well, against the American dollar that pointed out the possibility in falling to the support line at $1.5659 and to the 100-day and 21-day moving averages $1.5632 and $1.5596. Daily stochastic tends to weaken and returns from overbought zone. Daily momentum is now giving a little negative signals that shows temporary correction in the currency pair.

RES 4: $1.6020 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 3: $1.5902 2% envelope
RES 2: $1.5884 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 1: $1.5840/47 maximum of 9 Jun., 76.4% Fibonacci at $1.6020-$1.5287

Current quotation: $1.5803

SUP 1: $1.5659 support line of 13 Jun.
SUP 2: $1.5600 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5520 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5467/71 minima of 18, 19, 23 Jun.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Economic Calendar

02-Jul-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the trade terminal

*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important

**03:30 Australia Build Permits May % -3 5.4R -6.5

***03:30 Australia Retail Sales May % 0.2 -0.1R 0.7

***09:15 Euro Zone ECB President speaks

***11:00 Euro Zone PPI Core Output mm May % 0.9 0.8

**11:00 Euro Zone PPI Core Output y/y May % 6.7 6.1

**13:00 United States MBA Purchase Index w/e -- 333.4

**14:15 United States ADP Employment report June k -20 40

**16:00 United States Durable Goods Orders Revised May % 0 0

**16:00United States Factory Orders May % 0.4 1.1

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EURUSD

by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst)

Before 1 month the chairperson of the European central bank ( ECB ) made an aggressive statement, which pointed out his intension to fight against inflationary pressures. The statement moved Euro up 200 points. Today before rate decision and press conference of Mr Triche we ask questions: What surprise Mr Triche prepared in this time? Rate up 25 basic points for anti-inflationary measures is already taken in account in the current course of the Euro. But if investors and another market participants make up a conclusion that the ECB tends to increase its interest rates follow months, the single European currency may test the historical high at $1.6020, but if rate up ends once, the Euro may extend losses. According to analysts, the CPI in Euro Zone points twice more than the aim expected by Triche. A publication of unemployment in the US gives anxiety of traders. If Triche’s comment is aggressive and unemployment disappointing them, the Euro can quickly go through the figure $1.6000 before Triche will start answering to questions.

On Wednesday EURUSD trades at $1.5778, near the upper limit of diapason between $1.5775 and $1.5888. The Euro is in demand after a little weakening in the European session. Offers are at yesterday’s maximum at $1.5891. The option barrier at $1.5900 is protected. Additional offers are set at $1.5920 with stops above.

From the point of technical view a brake of 76.% Fibonacci at $1.6020-$1.5287 improve a perspective. Furthermore a widening of Bollinger bands points at the possibility in further upside movement of the currency course. Bulls aim at the historical high. Daily stochastic moves in overbought zone, but there are some signs pointing to temporary neutralisation of upside movement before ECB rate decision, so now’s currency course has already took into account rate up of ECB. Momentum and MACD show long-term upside trend, but in short time seem neutral.

RES 4: $1.6997 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 3: $1.5940 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $1.5923 2% envelope
RES 1: $1.5892 maximum of 2 Jul.

current quotation: $1.5879

SUP 1: $1.5766 1% envelope
SUP 2: $1.5686 support line from 13 Jun.
SUP 3: $1.5638 100-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5613 21-day moving average

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

03-Jul-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the trade terminal

*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important

**03:30 Australia Trade Balance May Mln -900 12R -965

**03:30 Australia Exports May % 6 1

**03:30 Australia Imports May % -2 6

***07:45 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m June % 0.3 0.8 0.2

**07:45 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y June % 3.1 2.9 2.9

**09:55 Germany PMI - Services June 53.3 53.8 52.1

**10:00 Euro Zone PMI - Services June 49.5 50.6 49.1

**10:30 United Kingdom PMI - Services June 49.5 49.8 49.3

***11:00 Euro Zone Retail Prices m/m May % 0.5 -0.6 1.2

**11:00 Euro Zone Retail Prices y/y May % -0.8 3R 0.2

***13:45 Euro Zone ECB Rate Announcement July % 4.25 4

*14:30 United States Average Earnings June % 0.3 0.3

***14:30 United States Jobless Claims w/e Mln 3.14 3.139

***14:30 United States Non Farm Payrolls - Net Change June k -60 -49

***14:30 United States Unemployment June % 5.4 5.5

***14:30 Euro Zone ECB President speaks July

**16:00 United States ISM - non manufacturing June 51 51.7

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - USDJPY

In this week an upside trend, beginning from the speech of the president of European Central Bank (ECB) Triche after rate up 0.25% to 4.00% in spite of negative data on the labour market in the US, continues in this week and greenback extends gains against main European currencies like the Euro and the Pound. In the Asian market EURUSD tested the minimum at $1.5628, but soon rebounded to $1.5648 by buying from Asian state founds. USDJPY broke the session high at Y106.67, hitting the session high at Y107.25.

Analysts made up a conclusion that the cause of Euro down was Triche’s speech just after rate up 0.25%. Traders took the speech not enough decisive and doesn’t give any hope of further monetary politics in the Euro zone and pointed at possible reduction of economic activity. In fact indexes of economical activity in the Euro zone show negative pictures. France and Italia are fully in the negative zone that point to coming reduction of economy. So is the US. ISM (service) index in the US fell to 48.2. In this week a speech of US central bank is expected and traders wait for more or less clear allusion of further monetary politics. If there is no comment on monetary politics in a speech, the expectation for Dollar consolidation will disappear. Taking into account lip-service of US president who want to support “strong Dollar”, Mr Bernanke may speak something about rate politics.

From point of technical view, the American Dollar tested against the Japanese Yen Y107.65 which is the same level of 200-day moving average. If USD confidently goes through the level, the break must pave the way to the June and February minima at Y108.58 and Y108.61. The greenback has now upside trend from the beginning of the European session. Stochastic and Momentum are in this moment giving a negative sign that means possible correction of currency course in a short-term perspective.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EURUSD

by Ajay Gautier (Junior Analyst)

Against background of falling of oil price and “strong dollar” and expected soft monetary politics in the Euro zone the greenback inches up against the main currency. According to analysts, published data in the Euro zone is being declined from the perspective of strict monetary politics in the Euro zone. In the UK the committee which begins from Wednesday may not accept such financial measures.

Nevertheless the American stock index DAW continue bear movement. Subprime crisis goes on strongliy to influence on American economics. Today the US will publish a series of economical data. In connection with Subprime crisis traders pay attention to Pending Home Sales Index and Pending Home Sales change. If data will be strongly declined from the consensus, the forex market must be dynamically moved in spite of the US official strong dollar politics. Today there is no publication from Euro zone, the US and Japan, nevertheless high oil price begins extend bad influence on world economy and the markets, not only currency, but also stock and another, sometimes lose sense of their direction.

Stochastic on the daily chart in the currency pair EURUSD confirms candle-stick model “bear absorption” formed on Thursday that conditions on movement of 21-day moving average at $1.5620 and Fibonacci 50% level at %1.5607. A breakdown leads to the level of 100-day moving average and 1% envelope to $1.5560/85. The first resistance is at the level of $1.5740/68.

RES 4: $1.6065/75 2% envelope
RES 3: $1.6020 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 2: $1.5910 1% envelope, maximum of 3 Jul., Upper line of Bollinger bands
RES 1: $1.5740/68 5-day moving average, Support line from 13 Jun.

current price: $1.5707

SUP 1: $1.5607/20 50% Fibonacci and 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5585 1% envelope
SUP 3: $1.5560 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5462 minimum 30 Jun.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EURUSD

by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst)

Today the European trade may be more interesting. Economic Calendar is full of important events, each of that can be a catalyst to currency course movement. In spite of creeping oil price in April Germany showed high figures of export. In May the situation is fully changed. The published figure is worse enough than consensus (-3.2 against the consensus 0). As a result the single European currency slipped against the main world currencies.

In the beginning of the European session EURUSD slipped to $1.5700 after testing intraday maximum at $1.5726. Analysts talked about oil price fall, strengthening of European stocks in the markets and South Korea’s Dollar-selling for market intervention in Asian markets exerting influence on the currency pair and weighed down against the greenback.

But the Dollar extends losses as oil price rebounded after Iran testing some long and medium-range missiles. Analysts saw it might exert short-term influence on the currency market which has more anxiety about the global economic slowdown and surging inflation. In his speech European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet noted intensified inflation risk.

In technical view shot-term impact factors disturb currency movement trend, but after EU rate change and Trichet’s announcement the currency pair shows a sideward movement. Daily stochastic falls near oversold zone and momentum seems neutral. The market is easy to be influenced by short-term influence factors.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EURUSD

by Praful Narain (Technical Analyst)

EURUSD attempted to climb up after inactive trade in the Asian Markets and, breaking the maxima of 7th and 9th July, reached the figure at $1.5763. But after that the currency pair sharply changed its trajectory under pressure of sell and returned to the night low to $1.5720/15 which tried to support bull-traders. Then the Euro marked the intraday minimum of $1.5700. Rebounded a little, Downside trend of the Euro isn’t weakened yet.

In the statement of European Central Bank ( ECB ), demand for the Euro was reduced because of Euro course rise and governments and financial institutions increased US Dollar reserve. Percentage of Euro reserve in the world was down 1% from Dec.2006 to Dec.2007, reported ECB. The quotation EURUSD was up 12% and the Dollar is relatively cheaper to be borrowed.

According to the Bureauof the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis BlueChip Economic Indicators, because of high oil price, reduction of worker market, fall of stock price and continuous subprime crisis the US economy is already in recession or must be in recession in the second half of this year. 54.5% economists consider that the US economy already fell into recession or fall into it, reported BlueChip Economic Indicators. In the last time the number of economists was 46.5%.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Economic Calendar

10-Jul-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important

**03:30 Australia Employment June k 10 -25.6R 29.8

***03:30 Australia Unemployment Rate June % 4.3 4.3 4.2

**10:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Price m/m June % -1 -2.4 -2

***11:00 United Kingdom BoE Rate Announcement July % 5 5

***12:30 United States Jobless Claims w/e k 395 404

*12:30 United States Jobless 4-week Average w/e k 390.5

***16:00 United States FED Chairman speaks

***19:45 Euro Zone ECB President speaks

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - GBPUSD

The American Dollar moved up in the Asian market since investors related to measures of the American government to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with careful optimism. In the last week the market was shocked by information that two financial institutes financed by the state can be nationalized. After that the government announced the purchase of a national creditor IndyMac that suffered losses. Today the market recovered position, reacting to the operations, undertaken by the US government on Sunday and, directed to stabilisation of the situation.

At the beginning Dollar/Yen fell to the minimum to Y105.96 because for fear of financial stabilisation in the US. Then the currency pair rebounded its position to 106.71 as FRS and US Treasury described the plan of recovering lost confidence. Exporters sell the Dollar above Y106.70, bids at the level of option barrier, existing at the level at Y105.800-90. Euro/Dollar hit a new record high above the 5-day maxima at $1.5949. But the Dollar strengthened by operations and announcement of the US government recovered its position and the pair quoted now at $1.5874. In the European market the Dollar keeps its position in the Asian market.

The Chart in GBPUSD forms bearish divergence, but the Pound keeps position above 21-day moving average which gives additional support for 5-day moving average at $1.9780/00. A support line of envelope goes through at the level $1.9625/50 and Fibonacci below.

RES 4: $2.0192 maximum of 27 Mar.
RES 3: $2.0022/28 maximum of 21 Apr., 1% envelope
RES 2: $2.0002/05 61.8% Fibonacci, maximum of 1 Jul.
RES 1: $1.9956 maximum of 11 Jul. and 200-day MA

current price: $1.9851

SUP 1: $1.9844/29 5-day and 21-day MA
SUP 2: $1.9625/50 1% envelope, minimum of 7 Jul.
SUP 3: $1.9588 minimum of 23 Jun.
SUP 4: $1.9430/68 2% envelope, minima of 16, 17 Jul.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Financial Calendar

14-Jul-08

Time(CET) Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important

***00:45 New Zealand Retail Sales May % 0.1 1 -1.2

***00:45 New Zealand Retail Sales year % 2 4.1 1

***10:30 United Kingdom PPI Core Output m/m June % 0.8 1.2

**10:30 United Kingdom PPI Core Output y/y June % 6.5 5.9

***10:30 United Kingdom PPI Output Prices m/m June % 1.2 1.6

**10:30 United Kingdom PPI Output Prices y/y June % 9.8 8.9

***10:30 United Kingdom PPI Input Prices m/m June % 2.5 3.8

**10:30 United Kingdom PPI Input Prices y/y June % 28.9 27.6

**11:00 Euro Zone Industrial Production m/m May % -2.3 0.9

**11:00 Euro Zone Industrial Production y/y May% 0.3 3.9

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and minimalization of losses before the news.