Today's Market View (IB Analists)

[IFCM IB Analists]

Euro about 1.56 U.S. dollars

by Ajay Gautier (junior analyst)

The rate of the euro stayed over the mark of 1.56 U.S. dollars on Tuesday. In early trade the European common currency was noted at 1.5635 U.S. dollars and slightly fell down the day before. A dollar was worth 0.6395 euros. The European Central Bank (ECB) had the reference price on Monday at 1.5628 (Friday: 1.5596) U.S. dollars.

On Tuesday experts reckon with little impulse for the foreign exchange. Only in the afternoon upcoming U.S. consumer confidence could make this movement sure. The views of market participants was focused on Wednesday, when the first data to US growth in the first quarter is published. The market expects again weak growth in the largest economy in the world.

On the other hand, the U.S. central announces bank its interest rate decision on Wednesday evening. Experts expect a further step in the Fed interest rate cutting by 0.25 points to 2.0 percent. In addition, the central bank can give a first comment on an end of its interest rate cutting phase. Since the outbreak of the U.S. housing crisis in the summer of 2007 the Fed has cut its interest rate, in general three percent.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis

by Francois Bidwai (Chart Analyst)

The Australian dollar slipped down under the 21-day moving average for the first time since early April. It is necessary to closing below that level ($ 0.9410) to neutralize bull tone. Ascending trend continues to dominate, thanks to the trend line of this year at a minimum level of $ 0.9240.

RES 4: $ 0.9578 2% envelope of moving average
RES 3: $ 0.9541 maximum of 23 April
RES 2: $ 0.9484 1% envelope of moving average
RES 1: $ 0.9382/90 5- and 10-day moving averages

14:22 (UTC) price: $ 0.9294

SUP 1: $ 0.9294/97 Minimum of April, 25, 1% envelope of moving average
SUP 2: $ 0.9256 55-day moving average
SUP 3: $ 0.9240 ascending trend from the January minimum
SUP 4: $ 0.9208 minimum of 14 April

 

[Muslimo5]

do you think that uptrend will be continue?...

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View EURJPY, EURUSD

by Ajay Gautier (Junior Analyst)

EURJPY - Disappointing unemployment data in Germany

Recent German unemployment figures disappointed traders by a decline of just 7,000 in April. Economists expected a clear decrease number to 30,000 in consensus (previous month: -55,000). The unemployment rate was increased quickly from 7.8% to 7.9% (consensus: 7.8%). EURJPY quoted at 8:00 (UTC) at Y161.91 . For the resistance at 162.10 exists, a new test at Y161.10 is expected, said an analyst.


EURUSD - on consolidation course

EURUSD may consolidate in a range between 1,5545-1,5655 up to upcoming U.S. interest rate decision on Wednesday evening at 18:15 (UTC) (consensus: -25 basis points to 2.00%) and up to the important accompanying statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, said an analyst.

From the chart technical view short-term prospects seems persistently negative, further losses may be possible by a decline under $1.5545 to 1.5510 initially and then 1,5365-45. On the other hand, rate increase over $1.5655 would divert an expected downward movement and make the euro reconquest the fundamental levels $1.5730 and $1.5785. About 7:45 (UTC) EUR / USD quoted at 1.5590.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis - GBPUSD

by Premlesh Pal Singh (Chief Analyst)

Movement under $ 1.9661 led to a breakthrough line of neck of the figure "head and shoulders", the aim of which is $ 1.8736. Daily indicators remain bearish, while stochastik sends signals to sale, but 10-day momentum is almost in the area of negative values.

RES 4: $ 2.0090 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from $ 2.0391 downward movement
RES 3: 2.0022/38 maximum of 21 and 4 April, 1% envelope of moving average
RES 2: $ 1.9964 maximum of 28 April
RES 1: $ 1.9795 5-day moving average and 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement $1.9966-$1.9625

The current rate (15:42: UTC): $ 1.9778

SUP 1: $ 1.9600/11 minimum of 15 April, minimum of 22 February, the base line of Bollinger bands
SUP 2: $ 1.9587/92 support line since April 2006
SUP 3: $ 1.9365 turning minimum of 20 February
SUP 4: $ 1.9339 turning minimum of 22 January

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View

by Ajay Gautier (Junior Analyst)

EURUSD - stabilization after U.S. interest rate cut
The U.S. central bank reduced its key rate by expected 0.25% to 2.00%. In accompanying commentary the Fed gave signales for a possible interest rate pause. In view of rising prices for energy and other commodities referred to the increasingly increasing inflation expectations and stressed the high level of uncertainty about the further inflation perspective. Around 7:00 (UTC) EUR / USD quoted at 1.5633. Supports lie at 1.5595 and 1.5555. Resistances are at 1.5661 and 1.5692. From the EU no data will be currently expected. From the USA the Challenger Report (last +9.4%) follows at 11:30 (UTC). At the same time the March PCE deflator is expected with expected 3.2% to 3.4% previously on the agenda.


USDJPY - movement in close range
In late Asian trade USDJPY moved in a very narrow range of only 38 pips between 103.98 of the current-day high and 103.60. At the beginning of Asian trade the currency pair has decended a little and stabilised under the 103.82 mark in the further course. At the top a resistance is at 104 level which and cares for the further potential in an intersection. At the bottom, the major support is expected at 103.52. Around 04:15 (UTC) USDJPY traded at 103.75.

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[IFCM IB Analists]

EUR / USD - taking a short rest

by Ajay Gautier (Junior Analyst)

The Sentix investor confidence in May (last 4.1 points) will be on the agenda in the euro zone at 8:30 UTC. In 14:00 UTC in the US the April ISM index follows, previously expected 49.6 to 49.5. The price of EUR / USD is corrected exactly 38.2% from the recent upward movement and recovered from this important Fibonacci level. The last 2 closing prices outside the lower Bollinger band indicate a rest a for EURUSD course after oversold level. Currently long positions are preferable. On 7:54 UTC the course quated at 1.5495. Resistance is at 1.5499.

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[IFCM IB Analists]

About uptrand

Hi.

do you think that uptrend will be continue?...

Could I ask you, uptrand of what currency pair? As for USD, some better than expected data are published, but greenbacks are still under pressure of subprime crisis, which need much time to be solved, so uptrend of USD may be continued in short term and down after publication of negative data of US ecomony.

Ajay Gautier (Junior Analyst)

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst)

EURUSD - Solid EU data

In EU the revised April-service index with 52.0 points came out a little better than the consensus, expected unchanged with 51.8 points The revised combined commercial and service index fell by 51.9 points exactly like expected. According to solid data EURUSD recovered from the day's low and quoted at 1.5471 at 8:10 UTC. Above $1.5535 resistances are at 1.5555 and 1.5600. Support is at 1.5453 and 1.5427.


GBPUSD - UK: sentiment more worse

In Great Britain the April services index reported extremely disappointing 50.4 points. The Konsensvon from 51.7 to 52.1 points previously was completely inappropriate. Renewed speculation germinates an early cut in interest rates in Britain. GBPUSD sliped on Tuesday into low level and quoted at 1.9652 in the field of Intraday low at 8:35 UTC. Supports are at 1.9622 and 1.9600.

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[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis

by Praful Narain (Technical Analyst)

The risks of further downward movement still remain with the continuing formation of bear flag on the afternoon chart. The currency pair on Friday managed to rise from 2% envelope of moving average, but it should be seen as a false rebound. 10-day momentum continues to indicate the new minima, although it is now in oversold zone.

RES 4: $ 1.5754/90 1% envelope
RES 3: $ 1.5706/20 maximum of 25 April, 21-day moving average
RES 2: $ 1.5645 hourly maximum of May 1
RES 1: $ 1.5600 resistance line from the April 25

The current rate: $ 1.55745 (15:38 :UTC)

SUP 1: $ 1.5432 minima of 1 and 5 May
SUP 2: $ 1.5362/68 minimum 2 May, 38.2% of the upward movement with $ 1.4313
SUP 3: $ 1.5344 correctional least March 24
SUP 4: $ 1.5288 2% envelope moving average