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[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 16th/2010 2010-08-16​

Review:

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain." The BDI is based on US dollars, so it is also influenced by changes in the value of the US dollar. Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. (Source : Wikipedia)

Now this Index allready rise almost 1.272% and at the 2.468 levels; "usually" BDI will give an impact approximately 3 month later.



Technical Level :

Breakout Buy level : 1.2819.
Strong Resistance : 1.2812.
Original Resistance : 1.2800.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2787.
Target Inner Area : 1.2757.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2726.
Original Support : 1.2714.
Strong Support : 1.2701.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2694.




Fundamental News :

Only 2 data release from Eurozone this day at 16:00WIB Core CPI y/y and CPI y/y after US market open there will be more data will be release 19:30 WIB Empire State Manufacturing Index, at 20:00 WIB TIC Long-Term Purchases and at NAHB Housing Market Index at 21:00 WIB.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 16th/2010 2010-08-16​

Review:

The USA is now preparing for a big attack in the nearest time at Khandahar - Afghanistan, the purpose is to take a shortcut for stopping the war against terrorism because they think (the US government) that there will be stop the source of the problem for one cent for all. BUT the result is it makes this pair lose its strength in the end of the day, at least, for a temporary of the short period.



Technical Level:

Resistance. 3 : 86.26

Resistance. 2 : 86.09.

Resistance. 1 : 85.92.

Support. 1 : 85.71.

Support. 2 : 85.54.

Support. 3 : 85.37.



Suggestion:

Taking Scalp for 10 pips to 20 Pips nearly Support. 3 for BUY and Resistance. 3 for SELL; but please consider if this pair after the break Support. 3 or Resistance. 3 still goes to 47 pips - 50 pips it seems this pair will continue that movement, so please change the position before.








Fundamental News:

At early morning Japan has already released a few data such Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and Prelim GDP q/q at 06:50 WIB morning and Prelim GDP Price Index y/y at 06:52 WIB. After the US market opens there will be more data released at 19:30 WIB Empire State Manufacturing Index, at 20:00 WIB TIC Long-Term Purchases and at NAHB Housing Market Index at 21:00 WIB.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Candlestick analysis of AUD/USD (long-term outlook) 2010-08-16​

Last week, AUD/USD pulled back after the solid upward motion. Nevertheless, at the moment long positions opened earlier should be kept, as the uprising trend is going on. As it has been noted before, AUD/USD can archive the mark of 0.9391 in the nearest future. On a weekly chart, the currency pair has formed a bullish candlestick combination “Bullish Engulfing”, which is a signal for an ascendant movement.
The fact that this candlestick has developed at the rebound from the support level of 0.8080 and from 38.2 Fibonacci correctional level, speaks in favor of an increasing tendency.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair has been falling after the failed try to break out the resistance level of 0.9394. However, having come to 0.8066, it reversed.
The fact that AUD/USD has successfully broken through 0.8855 means that the current point of view is correct. Now, a growth to the resistance of 0.9391 should be expected.
On the other hand, long positions are better to close after a breach of the support level of 0.8312 because it will open the way to 0.8066 (the low of May 2010).





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Candlestick analysis of EUR/USD for 16/08/2010 2010-08-16​

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving further downwards. On a daily chart, EUR/USD has set “Dark Cloud Cover” candlestick combination, which is a falling signal, which has been confirmed thereafter.
This combination formed after the pair had rolled back from 1.3333. The “Dark Cloud Cover” formation allowed a good opportunity to open with short positions.
Breakout of 23.6 Fibonacci correctional level means that this viewpoint is correct one. A decline to 1.2476 area should be expected after a breach of 38.2 Fibonacci correctional level and the support level of 1.2737. Fibonacci correctional level of 50.0 is placed at 1.2476 as well.
On the flip side, if the pair breaks through 1.3100, short positions opened earlier should be closed, as breakout of this mark will mean that the pullback is finished and an upward movement to 1.3700 should be awaited.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Candlestick analysis of NZD/USD for 16/08/2010 2010-08-16​

The NZD/USD pair is continuing the downward movement. Earlier, on a daily chart, NZD/USD has shaped a bearish candlestick combination “Evening Star”.
This candlestick combination developed nearly the strong resistance level of 0.7400, where the bulls did not managed to fixate and the bears became active.
In addition, 23.6 Fibonacci correctional level was broken out, having confirmed this standpoint.
It is expected that the pair will move downwards to 0.7032, where Fibonacci correctional level of 38.2 is placed also. If this level is breached, NZD/USD will aim at 0.6800. But a descendant motion can be restricted by Fibonacci correctional level of 61.8 in the area of 0.6850.
On the other hand, if the pair break through the resistance level of 0.7360, short positions should be closed, as it will cause a growth to 0.7450.




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for 18/08/2010 2010-08-18​

Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200
Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0586, 1.0650
On a 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD currency pair is pulling back further from the upper limit of the downward channel, and now, it is forming “Flag” probably. It is expected that breakout of 1.0300 will cause a drop to 1.0250.
However, if 1.0400 is breached, the intraday view will become neutral. If the ascendant motion keeps on, a breach of the resistance level of 1.0500 will aim USD/CAD at 1.0586.
In mid-term outlook, USD/CAD has seemly shaped a bottom at the mark of 0.9930. In addition, taking into account bullish divergence in daily and weekly MACD, the view of the pair remains bullish amid the reversal of the downtrend from 1.3063. It is awaited that USD/CAD will move upwards to Fibonacci correction level of 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 on 1.1126 with the next target at Fibonacci correction level of 61.8 to 1.1866.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendation for August 18, 2010 2010-08-18​

4-hour timeframe



General view:
A new purchase signal with the target at 1.2982 has developed. The signal is weak and unconfirmed as Chinkou Span has not managed to overcome the price curve and the price is placed below Ishimoku indicator. Therefore, it will be possible to bull only after confirmation of the current signal. In case of confirmation, the first target will be the lower limit of Ishimoku cloud. Otherwise, the downward movement is likely to renew. If the price fixates above Kijun-sen (1.2830), the current purchase signal will weaken and long positions should be closed. Chinkou Span is below the price curve, this confirms the extending descendant trend. Bollinger bands is indicating a sideways tendency, the bands are not diverging and directed sideways. MACD is increasing, testifying to the continuation of ascendant movement.
Trading recommendations:
Under such conditions, it is advisable to wait for confirmation of the current signal, after that it is recommended to trade with the target at 1.2982 can be renewed. Place stop loss below 1.2830.
Besides the technical picture, it is important to consider the fundamental reports and time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 19th/2010 2010-08-19​

Markets are now waiting for the results of the Monday's meeting of Prime Minister Naoto Kan and the Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, and increased speculation that the Fed will loose its monetary policy before the meeting. BOJ is likely to extend the amount of reserve funds up to 30 trillion Yen, equivalent to $352 billion from the current 20 trillion Yen, or continued duration, fixed-rate loans to banks to be six months from three months. So please prepare for an unexpected move from this pair because of the possibility of intervention from BOJ to the Yen.

However here is important intraday trading levels for USD/JPY today:

Resistance. 3 : 86.05.

Resistance. 2 : 85.88.

Resistance. 1 : 85.71.

Support. 1 : 85.50.

Support. 2 : 85.33.

Support. 3 : 85.16.



Suggestion:

Taking Scalp for 10 pips to 20 Pips nearly Support. 3 for BUY and Resistance. 3 for SELL; but please consider if this pair after the break of Support. 3 or Resistance. 3 still goes to 47 pips - 50 pips it seems this pair will continue that movement, so please change the position before.







Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 19th/2010 2010-08-19​

On early US Market session yesterday, Euro strengthened after the German bond auction had showed solid demand. It was held to reduce fiscal instability in the European Union. But the Euro failed to pass the psychological level at $1.2900, so the buck ended the trading session lower. At the close of trading, the Euro fell to $1.2858, in the trading range between $1.2824 and $1.2923. Sales of the US Dollar against the yen have also come under pressure, moving down to the lowest price range in the last 15 years on speculation that the Japanese government will not intervene to make its currency weaker versus the US dollar. However, yesterday we got 2 significant trades: the first one is when the London Market opened this pair had already been in Inner BUY Area, and the target was hit soon. The second trade took place (the hit of Inner SELL Area) when the US market opened, this pair could also go to north but this pair went back to south again and hit the Inner Target Area. Here is the screenshot below:





There are important intraday levels for this pair today:

Breakout Buy level : 1.2858.
Strong Resistance : 1.2850.
Original Resistance : 1.2838.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2825.
Target Inner Area : 1.2795.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2764.
Original Support : 1.2752.
Strong Support : 1.2740.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2732.



The screenshot is below:







Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Fractal analysis of the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs. Trading recommendations 2010-08-19​

Dear traders,


For EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, the key levels remained unchanged. We do not see evident initial conditions for the ascendant tendency development.


In this analytical review, we will analyze the development of the structure for today for such pairs as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Having read it, you should realize more clearly possible prospects of the currencies development. In this method, for a simpler representation we use the standard notions of the technical analysis, such as support and resistance levels, though the method itself is based on the properties of the fractal function and has a deep meaning of the current and the future situation understanding. All the calculations are made from the initial conditions of the cycle development. The direction of the price movement from the current initial conditions are shown with a black arrow line. The alternative movement is shown with a red arrow line, in case of breaking through the key levels for cancellation of the uprising or downfalling cycle. As a rule, the red line also indicates the correctional movement and a short-term exit through the level. Do not use only the images; study the text in order to understand the progress of the event.


Forecast for August 19:




The important levels for EUR/JPY are 113.99, 112.30, 111.60, 111.01, 109.12, 108.66, 107.69, 107.41 and 106.40. Here, the key levels remained unchanged. We are not observing shaped structure for the top. A short-term downward motion is possible in the range of 109.12 – 108.66. From here, there is a high probability of reversal to correction. Breakout of the level of 108.66 should be accompanied by a precise falling movement, in this case the target is 107.69, in the range of 107.69 – 107.41 the price consolidation is due. The potential value for the descendant tendency is considered 106.40, after reaching which an upward retrace is expected. There are no any initial conditions for the uprising tendency. A correctional ascending movement is possible in the range of 111.01 – 111.60, break of the last figure will cause the deepening to the level of 112.30, where from a key bounce back downwards is awaited. The breach of this level will affect negatively the further upward structure in H1 scale. The level of 113.99 is a key resistance for the high and is interesting in a mid-term outlook.


Trading recommendations:
Buy: 111.01 Take profit: 111.60
Buy: 111.65 Take profit: 112.30
Sell: 108.60 Take profit: 107.69
Sell: 107.41 Take profit: 106.40





The major levels for GBP/JPY are 136.01, 135.33, 134.90, 134.04, 132.70, 132.47 and 131.77. Here the further development of the downward movement is expected after the price passing the noise diapason of 132.70 – 132.47, in this case the potential target is 131.77, after attainment of which the price consolidation is awaited. For an increasing tendency, no initial conditions have been created yet.
The level of 134.04 is a key resistance, breach of it will be favorable for the development of the ascendant tendency in H1 scale. In this case the first target is 134.90, the price consolidation is expected in the range of 134.90 – 135.33. The potential value for the top is considered 136.01 level. Before hitting this level initial conditions for the development of rising cycle should form.


Trading recommendation:
Buy: 134.04 Take profit: 134.90
Sell: 132.47 Take profit: 131.77


Please, note that making this trading recommendations we take into account not all potential of the structure development, but only the major levels.




Performed by Aleksey Almazov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010