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Crude oil and gold review 2010-08-05​

Crude oil
Crude oil futures closed slightly lower on Wednesday, as the US dollar strengthening, positive economic reports and the rising US fuel inventories offered conflicting signals to the oil market.
According to the trading results on the New York Mercantile Exchange, September light sweet crude oil quotations dropped by 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.47 a barrel. Brent crude futures decreased by 58 cents, or by 0.7%, to $82.10 a barrel. Separate reports demonstrating faster-than-expected growth in the U.S. non-manufacturing sector as well as an increase in private sector employment tugged oil prices in two directions. Investors encouraged by signs of the economy improvement bought equities and some commodities. Crude futures have risen and fallen with those markets and even overcame the recent growth in shares by strengthening by more than 7% in the last week. However, the data also eased fears the US Federal Reserve would turn to monetary stimulus to keep the recovery on track. In the result, the greenback increased to 1.3161 recently against the euro, from 1.3240 earlier. A stronger buck makes oil more expensive to purchase using other currencies. The oil rally was also cut short by an unexpected climb in U.S. gasoline inventories seen in data released by the Energy Information Administration. The report showed gasoline stocks rising 700,000 barrels, while average analyst expectations had been an 800,000-barrel shrink. Distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel rose by 2.2 million barrels, double the forecast. U.S. demand was barely above year-ago levels, too low to consume the fuel produced by refiners operating at 91.2% of capacity, close to their highest rate in three years.




Gold
Talks about further easing the US monetary policy and the Chinese demand possible growth on Wednesday pushed gold futures to the highest level in almost three weeks.
December gold futures were $8.40 up, or 0.7%, to $1195.90 an ounce, the highest closing level since July 15. Gold futures have advanced for six consecutive sessions, caused by buying at lower price, when prices declined to a three-month low. Recently, gold prices have been rising by the likelihood of increased refuge demand if the economic recovery remains unsteady. Gold was supported on Wednesday by speculation that the US Federal Reserve System can lower interest rates or buy bonds to support the economy. Even symbolic action by the Fed could send a signal that authorities believe the economy is at risk of deflation or a renewed recession, enhancing the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. Gold is sometimes bought as a hedge instrument during weakness in other markets. Gold futures also got support on Wednesday from the news that China would take steps to expand its domestic gold market. On Tuesday, the People's Bank of China announced that the government would permit more banks to export and import gold. Analysts say the easing of restrictions should not immediately lead to an increase in gold investment, but it represents an expansion, which can make China a larger player in the international gold market.





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USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 6th/2010 2010-08-06​

This day at 19:30 WIB (West Indonesian Time) the US Non Farm Payrolls report and Unemployment Rate Data are due to release; so please be ready for a choppy market and an unexpected high volatile movement during the data release. However here is an important intraday level area for this currency pair today:
Resistance. 3 : 86.33.
Resistance. 2 : 86.17.
Resistance. 1 : 86.00.
Support. 1 : 85.79.
Support. 2 : 85.62.

Support. 3 : 85.45.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.
The screenshot is below:




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EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 6th/2010 2010-08-06​

Please be careful and take a cautious approach if you want to trade during this day because tonight the US Non Farm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Rate data will be released; so here is an important intraday trading area for this pair today:
Breakout Buy level : 1.3243.
Strong Resistance : 1.3235.
Original Resistance : 1.3222.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3209.
Target Inner Area : 1.3178.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3146.
Original Support : 1.3134.
Strong Support : 1.3121.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3113.
Here is the screenshot below:





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The US stock market review 2010-08-06​

The US stock indices declined slightly on Thursday, as investors were careful ahead the Friday’s release of the US non-farm payrolls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.45 points, or 0.05%, to 10674.98 ahead the publication of the monthly employment data. The Nasdaq Composite shed 10.51 points, or 0.5%, to 2293.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 index decreased 1.43 points, or 0.1% to 1125.81. American Express shares tumbled 89 cents or 2% to $43.22. Pfizer stocks lost 25 cents or 1.5% to $16.19, Microsoft equities fell 36 cents or 1.4% to 25.37. The securities went down after an unexpected increase in the US initial jobless claims. These report cooled investors’ expectations for the monthly employment data, which is due to release on Friday. Thursday’s declines were limited by the consumer sector companies, which were lifted by encouraging retail sales at Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch and Macy’s although some other retailers disappointed. Kohl’s shares rose $1.91 or 4.1% to $49. The sales results of the department-store retailer met analysts’ expectations and the company raised its second-quarter earnings forecast. Abercrombie stocks advanced 73 cents or 1.9% to $39.53. Macy’s securities increased 34 cents or 1.7% to $19.78, following better-than-expected July retail sales and as the company said its back-to-school season has got a great start.





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Analytical review of EUR/USD with a forecast for August 6, 2010 2010-08-06​

On Thursday, the European Single Currency increased slightly against the US dollar following the disappointing US Labor market data.

In the first part of the day, the pair had reached a new day low at 1.3122, but then the growth refreshed and within a few hours the euro hit the mark of 1.3235.

The trading day closed with the euro advance, which totaled to 28 points. The volatility was 115 points.

Fundamental review:
As it became known yesterday, the European Central Bank left the key interest rate at the level of 1%. The majority of experts and market participants had been predicting the key policy rate unchanged.

The ECB’s President J.-C. Trichet in his yesterday’s speech said that the Eurozone economy is strengthening, but the current growth pace is unlikely to maintain in the second part of the year.

In his opinion, the second part of the year will be less optimistic than the second quarter. “I think Q2 was very favorable and Q3 would be better than it was expected earlier”, declared he.

According to Trichet, many reports point out positive tendencies in the economy development, but risks appeared because of the renewed arguments on the financial markets, rising crude and other commodities prices can affect negatively the further development.

Concerning the US fundamental statistics, it can be said that the initial jobless claims increased unexpectedly on the week of July 25 – 31.

In accordance with the report, the initial jobless claims rose 19,000 to 479,000, while experts had been expecting a shrink of 2,000.

The previous week’s reading was revised upwardly to 460,000 versus 457,000 reported initially.

Technical analysis:
The pair keeps trading in the descendant price channel from August 3, 2010. The bottom limit of the channel goes through the low of 1.3146 from August 3 and yesterday’s low of 1.3119. the upper limit is built from this month high of 1.3261.

The pair is supported by the level of 1.3173. In case of the breakout of this level the decline can continue to 1.3145 and then to 1.3121-06.

The first resistance level is 1.3214, and if it is broken through, the pair will rise to 1.3238 and to the week high of 1.3261.

Bollinger bands are down-directed and converging gradually indicating the volatility lowering. The trading is held in the upper part of the channel and the mid-band placed at 1.3173 is the support.

MACD is near zero mark pointing out a sideways market movement.






Today’s recommendations:
Support levels: 1.3173, 1.3145, 1.3121.
Resistance levels: 1.3214, 1.3238, 1.3261.

Today it is advisable to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above the level of 1.3197 with a target - T/P 1.3241 and S/L 1.3172.
It is possible to sell at the closing of 1-hour timeframe below 1.3173 with a target – T/P 1.3133 and S/L 1.3197.

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EUR/USD's technical analysis and trading recommendations for August 6, 2010 2010-08-06​

4-hour timiframe



Overview:
The purchase signal with the target level of 1.3250 is going on. This signal is strong and confirmed, as the price is placed above Ishimoku cloud and Chinkou Span is above the price curve. Also, the price managed to fixate above the first resistance level of 1.3145. Therefore, the current target of the upward motion is the second resistance level of 1.3241. At the same time, the price for several times did not managed to overcome the second resistance, so now there is a possibility of a sideways movement. In case of the price overcoming this level, the next target will be at 1.3375, the third resistance level. If the price fixes below Kijun-sen (1.3155), it will mean the purchase signal weakening and long positions are recommended to be closed. Chinkou Span is above the price curve, which speaks for an increasing tendency. Bollinger bands indicate a sideways movement – the bands are directed sideways and not diverging. MACD is moving down testifying to the correction.
Trading recommendations:
In this situation it is advisable to bull with the target at 1.3241 and further to 1.3375. Stop loss to set below 1.3155. Enter the market with long positions in case of MACD up-reversal.
Besides the technical picture, it is important to consider the fundamental reports and time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 9th/2010 2010-08-09​

Here is an important intraday level area for this pair today:
Breakout Buy level : 1.3347.
Strong Resistance : 1.3339.
Original Resistance : 1.3326.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3313.
Target Inner Area : 1.3282.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3251.
Original Support : 1.3238.
Strong Support : 1.3225.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3217.
Here is the screenshot below:





Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For August; 9th/2010 2010-08-09




Here is an important intraday level area for this pair today:

Resistance. 3 : 85.85.
Resistance. 2 : 85.68.
Resistance. 1 : 85.51.
Support. 1 : 85.30.
Support. 2 : 85.13.
Support.3 : 84.96.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.
The screenshot is below:





Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
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lebih lanjut--->

Crude oil and gold review 2010-08-09​

Crude oil
Crude futures fell on Friday amid the worries about the slowdown in the US economy as well as low demand on the black gold. The greenback advance from daily lows also helped the crude quotation decline.
The NYMEX crude for September delivery tumbled by $1.31 or by 1.6% to $80.70 a barrel. By the end of the week, crude rose by 2.2% following July a 4.4% growth.
Crude futures decreased amid the US Labor market disappointing data. The weak jobs statistics added to worries that the Federal Reserve System will take further stimulative action on sluggish economic recovery.
The U.S. economy lost more jobs in July than it was expected, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5%. The US non-farm payrolls dropped by 131,000 jobs because the employment increase in the private sector was not enough to level off job cut in the public sector, the Labor Department said Friday. In the prior month, the private sector growth was 71 000, but there were fired 143 000 persons employed for census operation in 2010.
Economists had expected a July slide of 60,000.
A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated futures cheaper for market participants using other currencies. The dollar fell against the euro and yen Friday after the unemployment report.
The bleak Labor market situation has kept a lid on oil prices, as a slow recovery causes weak crude demand. Therefore, crude futures were broken amid the fundamental data.
Nonetheless, Crude oil climbed by 30% from May’s lows. There are expectations on the market that it will increase to $83 and then to $87.




Gold
Gold futures edged up on Friday amid the weak US Labor market data and the US dollar index decline. According to the session results, December gold contract went up $6 or 0.5% to $1205.30.
After a lull, gold may be headed for another leg higher if economic data continue to disappoint, or there is lower demand for the debt of some European countries. Fears about the European debt crisis were partly responsible for driving gold to a record above $1,260 in June.
Traders are still skeptical about the US economy being in recession.
On Thursday, an unexpected increase in weekly US claims for jobless benefits also hit equities and growth-sensitive commodities and sent investors into US government debt and gold.
Investors werhttp://www.carigold.com/portal/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=7053485e also buying gold on the longer-term view that the dollar may weaken further and inflation may rise if a stuttering economic recovery causes the US to inject more money into the system.
On the back of it, fears about inflation have renewed because gold is used as a safe-haven asset against inflation. The quotation growth was a typical response of the market.






Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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Candlestick analysis of NZD/USD for 09/08/2010 2010-08-09​

At present, short positions are better to keep because no signals to their closing have occurred. Earlier on a daily chart, NZD/USD has developed a bearish combination “Evening Star”. This combination was formed close to a strong resistance level of 0.7400, where the bulls did not managed to fixate and the bears began to dominate.
If Fibonacci correctional level of 23.6 is broken out, it will mean that this viewpoint is correct. In this case it is expected that NZD/USD can go downwards to 0.7032, where Fibonacci correction level of 61.8 is also placed.
On the other hand, if the resistance level of 0.7400 is broken through, short positions are to be closed because it will cause an increase to 0.7450.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010