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Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

Forex trading plan for January 13

12 January 2016, 12:44 Comments: 0


By Kira Iukhtenko

Economic calendar on Wednesday consists of a couple events, but they are very important in the current market conditions. Watch the Chinese trade balance in the Asian session. Contraction of the trade surplus could become an important risk-off factor. Later in the day, US are scheduled to release crude oil inventories figures. According to the preliminary estimates, we could see more inventories growth. These two releases could hit the markets with a new wave of selling.

In the current conditions, we recommend staying out of the risky assets. EUR/USD holds slightly above the 1.0840 support (50% Fibo from the early January rally). Break below could trigger a new wave of selling with a target of 1.0800.

GBP/USD fell below the 1.4500 support after a short-term correction. The market was disappointed by the UK manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. The market is now focusing on a BOE meeting on Thursday – no rate hike is expected.

USD/JPY tries to recover for a second day in a row, but the attempts are rather unsuccessful. Yen will remain in-demand as a safe haven. Break to the downside from the current 117-118 yen sideways range is expected. Watch the 116.50 support.
 
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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis (18.01)
18 January 2016, 08:07 Comments: 0

Roman Petuchov


H4. Wave Z takes form of a simple ascending zigzag. Wave [c] of Z is now being developped. Price is expected to grow. Be careful, though: if growth fails to contunue in the first 2-3 days of the week, the forecast will be negated.

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US Dollar: forecast for January 25-31

By Kira Iukhtenko


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Last week the USD index has recovered some ground and approached the 100 points figure. Demand for risk increased after the ECB meeting on Thursday. As a result, the US Dollar strengthened versus the euro, yen and Swiss franc. However, the greenback weakened versus the commodity block currencies. The next week will likely show whether this move is a short-lived correction of a trend-changer.

On Wednesday, January 27th, the Fed will hold its regular policy meeting. There will likely be no rate hike announced, no press-conference is scheduled as well. Watch the US Q4 GDP on Friday. Economy rose by 2% in Q3, but economists expect the figures to have worsened during the last quarter of the year. The news could hurt the US currency.
 
EUR/USD: forecast for January 25-31
22 January 2016, 11:19 Comments: 0
By Elizabeth Belugina

The ECB left monetary policy unchanged in line with expectations. At the same time, Mario Draghi underlined that the ECB is ready to ease policy on the back of weakening inflation and economic growth. Draghi said that such step is possible already at the next meeting in March. Oil prices and the prospects of the emerging economies will play the key role in the regulator’s decision.

It looks like the ECB President has managed to persuade his colleagues from the Governing Council that they may need additional measures because of the changing global economic reality. We got the confirmation that the ECB doesn’t want to let EUR/USD go above 1.10.

The euro was sold on Draghi’s remarks, but there were still buyers at the support levels, so we can’t say that the euro lost all support. The best strategy for a long time from now will be selling the euro on its attempts to recover. At the same time, negative pressure on the euro at the coming week will likely intensify on the potential break in the market’s risk aversion and divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. From the technical point of view, the decline of EUR/USD below 1.0780 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud) will open the way down to 1.0700 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0950 and 1.1000.

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EUR/USD: forecast for January 25-31
22 January 2016, 11:19 Comments: 0
By Elizabeth Belugina

The ECB left monetary policy unchanged in line with expectations. At the same time, Mario Draghi underlined that the ECB is ready to ease policy on the back of weakening inflation and economic growth. Draghi said that such step is possible already at the next meeting in March. Oil prices and the prospects of the emerging economies will play the key role in the regulator’s decision.

It looks like the ECB President has managed to persuade his colleagues from the Governing Council that they may need additional measures because of the changing global economic reality. We got the confirmation that the ECB doesn’t want to let EUR/USD go above 1.10.

The euro was sold on Draghi’s remarks, but there were still buyers at the support levels, so we can’t say that the euro lost all support. The best strategy for a long time from now will be selling the euro on its attempts to recover. At the same time, negative pressure on the euro at the coming week will likely intensify on the potential break in the market’s risk aversion and divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. From the technical point of view, the decline of EUR/USD below 1.0780 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud) will open the way down to 1.0700 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0950 and 1.1000.

EURUSDDaily.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for February 8-14
6 February 2016, 10:33 Comments: 0


The euro took advantage of the broad weakness in the US dollar. EUR/USD made a breakthrough to the upside and crushed several important resistance levels on the way. One of the main reasons of such rapid increase in the euro is the covering of massive short positions. Economic data from the euro area remain weak. On Friday, though, US labor market data made traders buy American currency back.

Resistance is at 1.1270 (76.8% Fibo of the October-November decline), 1.1300 (23.6% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1330. A break here can open the way to 1.1440/50. Support switched up to 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000.

Let’s look at the euro’s rate in general, not only against the US dollar. The single currency’s effective exchange rate against a trade-weighted basket of 38 other currencies is at maximum since the start of 2015 or, in other words, before Mario Draghi formally announced the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program.

High euro is very unwelcome for the European economy and is an obstacle for the ECB to reach 2% inflation target. Yet, 2 speeches of the ECB president this week didn’t discourage the bulls. Draghi spoke of weaker inflation and increased risks hinting at the central bank’s policy easing in March. However, it seems that vague promises of March are not enough to weaken the euro.

Decline below 1.1040 will return strength to the bears, but 1.0900 should limit the euro on the downside.

Next week the most important piece of data will be released on Friday: euro area’s and German Q4 GDP. The region’s finance ministers will meet on Thursday and Friday. The ECB officials may try verbal interventions to limit the euro on the upside.
 

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