Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: forecast for December 21-27
21 December 2015, 06:28 Comments: 0

EUR/USD failed to settle above 1.1000 and declined to 1.0800. The bears have to break below this level to provoke decline to 1.0730 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0980, 1.1055 and 1.1100. These obstacles look strong.

Economic data from the euro area in the past week were mixed: PMIs came generally in line with forecasts, but German IFO business climate index disappointed raising concerns about the region’s leading economy.

This week we won’t see a lot of news from Europe. Spanish parliamentary elections can create volatility on Monday: the markets will be watching the event as the European Union urging Spain to make new budget cuts in 2016. Then there will be some minor data from Germany on Monday and Tuesday, while the second half of the week will be devoted to Christmas holidays.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

NZD/USD: buy target - 0.6900
23 December 2015, 09:42 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

NZD/USD broke resistance level 0.6800
Next buy target - 0.6900

NZD/USD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of November. The active impulse wave 3 earlier reversed up sharply with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6600 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from November.

Having recently broken above the resistance level 0.6800 - NZD/USD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 0.6900 (which stopped the previous (A)-wave in October).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/JPY: sell target - 134.00
24 December 2015, 08:33 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

EUR/JPY falling inside impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3)
Next sell target - 134.00

EUR/JPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 - which belong to the extended intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the start of June (as you can see below). The active impulse wave (iii) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 134.00, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of earlier downward price impulse from October.

EUR/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 134.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Top-5 FX market events in 2015
28 December 2015, 18:48 Comments: 0

The year 2015 turned to be an eventful year for the financial world. Let’s review the key milestones we should remember.

1. Swiss National Bank

The regulator caused panic on the financial markets by unexpectedly removing the EUR/CHF peg on January 15. As a result, Swiss franc surged by 20% at once. The majority of currency traders was hurt by this decision. Later on the exchange rate of the franc declined, especially against the US Dollar.

2. European Central Bank

On January 22, the ECB announced the beginning of a quantitave easing program that was expected to increase its balance by more than 1 trillion euro. This decision pulled the euro exchange rate to its new lows on 2015.

3. Greece

This country was an important newsmaker in the first half of the year. Left party SIRIZA won the parliamentary election on January 25. On the July 5 referendum the Greek people said ‘no’ to the austerity measures. Prime minister Tsipras used the results of the referendum in negotiations with creditors. As a result, the country obtained a new international credit tranche in August and avoided a default.

4. China

On June 12, bubble on the Chinese market started deflating. Shanghai Composite index fell by more than 30% in one month. Other volatile days we rememberd were July 27 and August 24 (“black Monday”). Investments based on loans grew much faster than the economy and the corporate profits. As a result, fears of a “hard landing” of the Chinese economy and yuan devaluation hurt the market badly.

5. The Federal Reserve

In December 2015, the Fed had raised interest rate for the first time since the 2006. As a result, the US economy entered a tightening cycle that is expected to continue next year. This topic will remain highly important for the currency markets in the coming months.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Syarikat FBS mengucapkan Selamat Tahun Baru!
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Pelanggan yang dihormati! Dengan sepenuh hati kami, kami mengucapkan Selamat Tahun Baru! Kami menambah ucapan kami kepada anda pada hari keajaiban ini! Semoga anda gembira, disayangi dan berjaya pada tahun 2016 yang akan menjelang tiba!

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4750
30 December 2015, 09:32 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

GBP/USD falling inside impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3)
Next sell target - 1.4750

GBP/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions- following the earlier breakout of the round support level 1.5000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.5000 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3). The price earlier reversed down from the lower channel line of the wide daily down channel from June - which further accelerated the downward movement of this currency pair.

GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4750 (target price for the termination of wave 3).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4750
30 December 2015, 09:32 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

GBP/USD falling inside impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3)
Next sell target - 1.4750

GBP/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions- following the earlier breakout of the round support level 1.5000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.5000 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3). The price earlier reversed down from the lower channel line of the wide daily down channel from June - which further accelerated the downward movement of this currency pair.

GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4750 (target price for the termination of wave 3).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/CAD: buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400
6 January 2016, 09:15 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.4000
Next buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400

USD/CAD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 1.4000 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.4000 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier- when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.3800 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of December.

USD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4200 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4400.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4500
7 January 2016, 10:08 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4750
Next sell target - 1.4500

GBP/USD recently fell sharply – breaking through the support level 1.4750, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 5, which belong to the sharp intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from August.

The price is currently trading close to the pivotal, multi-month support level 1.4570 (which stopped the previous primary impulse wave ① in April, as can be seen below).If the price breaks below 1.4570, GBP/USD can then fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4500 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for January 12
11 January 2016, 15:14 Comments: 0

Last week: Yuan’s devaluation, Chinese stocks decline, oil price falling by more than 11%, good NFP release in the US (+292K), but weak average hourly earnings.

Risk sentiment: Mildly negative. European shares made small gains, though Asian indexes fell by 2-5%. The market make take a breath after the losses of the previous week, though it’s too early at this point to say that equities have reached bottom.

USD: US labor market statistics didn’t provide the greenback with strong bullish impulse. Traders will look forward to comments of the Fed members on China and US equity markets. The Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher will speak at 10:30 GMT.

EUR/USD: The pair met resistance at 1.0970, though the market’s risk aversion doesn’t let the euro to slide much. We lean towards cautious selling. After 1.0870 support is at1.0830, 1.0800 and 1.0685.

GBP/USD: The oversold pound has started correcting to the upside, though the general downtrend is still in place. The UK will release manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is positive, though annual reading is expected to decline). The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4640 and 1.4700 – the market will likely remain bearish below this point.

USD/JPY: Last week the pair broke below important support levels and now looks weak. US dollar will likely return to minimums. Resistance is at 118.30 and 118.70, while support is at 116.00. Pay attention to Japanese current account data and the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speech at 10:30 GMT.

AUD/USD: Resistance is at 0.7115 (former support line). Aussie is correcting to the upside, though we think that advance won’t be long, so we’ll see this resistance as a point to enter shorts. Support is at 0.6930/00.