Market Outlook By Commexfx

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 9-09-2014

EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.43% against the USD and closed at 1.2898, as the Sentix investor confidence in the Euro-region deteriorated in September.

Yesterday, the ECB Executive Board Member, Sabine Lautenschlager, supported the recent decision of the ECB to cut its key interest rate, stating that it was necessary to prevent the risks of too low inflation and boost economic growth in the common currency bloc.

Separately, the IMF Chief, Christine Lagarde, suggested that the weakening of the Euro against the USD in the past few days is a positive sign for “recovery” in the single-currency bloc.

In the US, consumer credit climbed by $26.0 billion in July, higher than market expectations for a rise of $17.0 billion and compared to $18.8 billion in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2853, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2824. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2934, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2986.

Amid a light economic calendar in the Euro-zone as well as in the US, trading trends in the pair today would be determined by global news.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell 0.73% against the USD and closed at 1.6095, as house prices in the UK rose less than expected in August, raising concerns over the health of the housing market in the nation.

Economic data released this morning indicated that like-for-like retail sales in the UK rebounded sharply, increasing 1.3%, on an annual basis in August, higher than market expectations for a rise of 0.3% and compared to a 0.3% fall recorded in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6029, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6180, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6279.

Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined by the UK’s industrial and manufacturing data, scheduled for release in a few hours. Meanwhile, investors would keep a close eye on the BoE Governor, Mark Carney’s speech, as well as the NIESR’s crucial GDP estimate for the UK, scheduled later today.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.75% against the JPY and closed at 106.00.

Earlier today, the minutes of the BoJ’s latest monetary policy held in August indicated that policymakers are optimistic about Japan’s economic recovery and expect inflation to rise gradually.

The pair is expected to find support at 105.4, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 104.57. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.67, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.12.

Trading trends in the Yen today would be determined by Japan’s consumer confidence index as well as machine tool orders data, scheduled shortly.

USD CHF
The USD rose 0.45% against the CHF and closed at 0.9353. The Swiss Franc came under pressure, after retail sales in Switzerland fell unexpectedly at an annualized rate of 0.6% in July.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Swiss unemployment rate rose 3.2% in August, in line with market expectations. It follows a similar increase registered in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9329, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9289. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.939, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9411.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 11-09-2014

EUR USD
EUR/USD gained 16 points to trade at 1.2955 as traders continued to interpret the ECB moves and its assistance to the Eurozone economy. There is virtually no Eurozone or US data today so trader are looking for reasons to trade. Last week’s August payrolls report brought a major disappointment with employment growth slowing to 142 000.
EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation would be seen above 1.2859 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3159 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2859 will extend recent fall to 1.2755 key support level.

GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.62% against the USD and closed at 1.6208, after the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, testified at the August Inflation Report Hearings, that the UK is moving towards a rate hike.
Yesterday, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee member, David miles, stated that he expects more slack in the UK labour market and further indicated that there is less immediate need for a rise in interest rates.
Earlier today, the RICS house price balance in the UK dropped to 40% in August, against anticipations that the house price balance to fall to 47%.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6088, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5981. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6267, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6339.

USD JPY
The USD strengthened 0.59% against the JPY and closed at 106.83.
The BSI of large manufacturing industries in Japan registered a rise of 12.7%
The pair is expected to find support at 106.35, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.96. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.29.
Going forward, investors look forward to the release of Japan’s industrial production data, scheduled tomorrow.

USD CHF
The USD rose 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 0.9365.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9324, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9282. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9403, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9440.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 12-09-2014

EUR USD
The EUR traded tad lower against the USD and closed at 1.2923.
the Euro-zone’s biggest economy, registered a flat CPI data, in line with market expectations, on a monthly basis in August.
Yesterday, the ECB, in its monthly report, reported that the policymakers would keep a close eye on the risks surrounding the outlook for inflation in the Euro. Furthermore, it reiterated that geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continued to weigh on the region’s economic growth
In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly advanced to a level of 315K in the week ended 06 September 2014, higher than market expectations
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2891, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2866. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2947, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2978.
GBP USD
The GBP rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.6258, after a new poll on Wednesday revealed that people in support of Scotland’s independence from the UK were declining.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6186, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.614. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6279, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6326.
Amid a light economic calendar in the UK ahead in the week, the investors would shift their attention to BoE’s minutes of the latest policy meeting, slated to release in the next week.
USD JPY
The USD strengthened 0.21% against the JPY and closed at 107.05.
Data released this morning indicated that, Japanese capacity utilization fell 0.8%, on a monthly basis in July, compared to a drop of 3.3% in the prior month, while the industrial production rose 0.4%, from a 3.4% fall registered in the same period.
The pair is expected to find support at 106.88, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.41. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.58, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.81.
Going forward, investors would pay attention to the BoJ Governor speech, scheduled shortly.
USD CHF
The USD traded marginally lower against the CHF and closed at 0.9360.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9342, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9319. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9383, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9401.
Investors would keenly await SNB’s interest rate decision, which will be announced in the next week.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 16-09-2014

EURUSD
The EUR declined 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.2938, after the Euro-zone’s trade surplus narrowed to €12.2 billion in July,

Separately, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut its growth forecasts for major developed economies. Additionally, it urged the ECB to come up with more aggressive measures to get rid of deflation risks prevailing in the single currency region.

In the US, industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% in August, registering its first decline since January, while manufacturing production also registered an unexpected drop of 0.4% in the same month, thus showing signs of uneven improvement in the US economy.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2911, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2879. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2972, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3001. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the ZEW’s economic survey for Germany as well as for Euro-zone as a whole, scheduled in a few hours.
GBPUSD
The GBP fell 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.6230, as uncertainty continues to loom over the Scottish independence referendum.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6216, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6194. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6264, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.629. Going forward, investors would keep a close eye on Britain’s crucial consumer price index (CPI) data, set for release in a few hours.
USDJPY
the USD weakened 0.14% against the JPY and closed at 107.15.

Early morning data indicated that, Japanese Tokyo condominium sales slid 49.1% on an annual basis in August, compared to a drop of 20.4% registered in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.94, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.78. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.31, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.53. Going forward, investors would look forward to the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech scheduled shortly.
USDCHF
the USD rose 0.21% against the CHF and closed at 0.9356.

In economic news, the producer and import price index in Switzerland unexpectedly dropped 0.2% in August.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9327, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9308. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.937, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9394. Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, trading trends in the Swiss Franc would depend upon news across various economies.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 17-09-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR rose 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.2953, after the ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany, Euro-zone’s biggest economy, dropped lesser than expected to 6.9 this month.

Meanwhile, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment further deteriorated to 14.2 in September, lower than market expectations of a drop to a level of 21.3. In the US, the producer price index registered a rise of 1.8%, on an annual basis, in August, in line with market expectations and compared to a rise of 1.7% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2919, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2883. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2993, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3031. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s CPI data, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, investors would keep a close eye on inflation data from the US before the Fed’s interest rate decision, scheduled later in the day.
GBP USD
the GBP rose 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.6257, after the consumer prices in the UK rebounded strongly in August and registered a rise of 0.4%.

Additionally, the DCLG house price index in the nation rose to a 7-year high, increasing 11.7% on an annual basis in July, beating market expectations for a gain of 10.6%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6178, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6094. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6329, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6396. Investors would keenly await BoE’s minutes of the latest policy meeting as well as voting pattern of the MPC members, scheduled in a few hours.
USD/JPY
The USD traded marginally higher against the JPY and closed at 107.17.

The BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, indicated that the Japanese economy continues to recover moderately and further added that central bank will continue with its quantitative and qualitative easing measures to attend the price stability target of 2.0% as expected.

Former Ministry of Finance official, Eisuke Sakakibara, commented that the Japanese Yen will fall, as wages lag behind inflation on account of higher import costs. The pair is expected to find support at 106.88, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.57. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.42, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.66.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.27% against the CHF and closed at 0.9331.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9297, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9266. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9362, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9396. Trading trends in the Swiss Franc today would be determined by the ZEW survey data, scheduled in a few hours.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 19-09-2014

EUR USD
The EUR rose 0.63% against the USD and closed at 1.2918.

Yesterday, the ECB in its first of eight Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) to be carried out between 2014 and 2016, allocated €82.6 billion to 255 counterparties at a fixed interest rate of 0.15%, less than market consensus for an allotment of €150.0 billion.

In the US, number of initial jobless claims registered a drop to 280K in the week ended 13 September 2014, marking its lowest level since July, beating market expectations to drop to a level of 305K and compared to a revised reading of 316K in the prior week.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.287, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2823. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2979. Going forward, investors would look forward to the release of the CB Leading Indicator from the US.

GBP USD
the GBP rose 1.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6434, after the UK retail sales advanced 0.4%, on a monthly basis, in August, exceeding market expectations for a gain of 0.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6318, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6153. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6691. Going forward, the outcome of a highly awaited voting result on the Scottish independence would keep the investors on their toes.

USD JPY
The USD strengthened 0.15% against the JPY and closed at 108.74.

the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that despite recent economic data revealing weak industrial production and exports in Japan, but he continues to remain upbeat on the recovery of nation’s exports, citing improvements in the world economy.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.6, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.03. Trading trends in the Yen today would be determined by Japan’s coincident and leading indices revealing the economic health of the nation, scheduled to release in a few hours.

USD CHF
the USD declined 0.90% against the CHF and closed at 0.9344. The Swiss Franc gained ground after the SNB kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations in September. The central bank, further cautioned that Switzerland’s economic outlook has deteriorated considerably and trimmed its domestic growth forecast for 2014 to 1.5% from 2% and kept its inflation forecast steady at 0.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9275. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9457. Amid a lack of domestic economic data, investors would keenly await SNB’s Q3 Bulletin, due on Wednesday, to get more insights on the Swiss economy.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 24-09-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.2847, after the manufacturing PMI in Germany, Euro-zone’s biggest economy dropped to 50.3 in September .
In the US, the manufacturing PMI remained steady at 57.9 in September, compared to market expectations of a rise to 58.0. Meanwhile, the housing price index rose 0.1%, on a monthly basis. Yesterday, the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in a conference, stated that he expects the first move of hiking the interest rates by the Fed would be employed at the end of the first quarter 2015.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2827, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2801. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2891, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2929.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.6391.
In economic news, the UK mortgage approvals registered an unexpected drop to a level of 41.6K in August, lower than market expectations of a rise to 42.9K and following a revised reading of 42.8K registered in the p The pair is expected to find support at 1.633, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6259. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6444, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6487. Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by economic news from other countries.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 108.83.
Early morning data indicated that, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in Japan unexpectedly eased to 51.7 in September, lower than market expectations of a rise to a level of 52.5 and down from 52.2 in August. The pair is expected to find support at 108.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.39.
USD/CHF
The USD traded flat against the CHF and closed at 0.9398.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9332. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9414, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9434. Going forward, investors keenly await the SNB’s Q3 bulletin to get more insights on the Swiss economy, scheduled in a few hours.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 25-09-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.2776.
Yesterday, the Euro further lost ground after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, in an interview, stated that the central bank would keep its monetary policy accommodative for a considerable period of time. In the US, the new home sales surged 18.0%, on a monthly basis, in August to 504,000 units, marking its biggest one-month gain since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008, following a revised increase of 1.9% to 427,000 units registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, number of mortgage applications in the nation dropped 4.1% on a weekly basis in the week ended 19 September, following a rise of 7.9% recorded in the prior week.
The Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, indicated that although there is improvement in the US jobs market but the country’s economy still needs help from the extended period of low interest rates. He, further, urged that the Fed should remain “exceptionally patient” before hiking its interest rates and should be more concerned towards boosting the jobs market.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2737, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2703. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2834, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2897.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell 0.37% against the USD and closed at 1.6331.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6385, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6449.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech, the first after Scottish referendum, scheduled later today.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.33% against the JPY and closed at 109.19.
Earlier today, data indicated that the Japanese corporate service price index rose 3.5%, on an annual basis, in August, lower than market expectations for a 3.7% gain and compared to a revised increase registered in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 108.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.87. Going forward, investors would await Japan’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in the early hours tomorrow.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.67% against the CHF and closed at 0.9461.
In economic news, Swiss UBS consumption indicator declined to 1.35 in August, compared to a revised reading of 1.67 reported in the past month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9411, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9361. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9487, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9513.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 30-09-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR rose 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.2690.
On the macro front, consumer prices in Germany came in flat, on a monthly basis, in September, similar to an unchanged reading registered in the previous month. In other economic news, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator recorded a drop to 99.9 in September. In the US, pending home sales dropped 1.0% on a monthly basis in August, more than market. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2667, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2639. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2719, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2743.
Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI as well as unemployment data, scheduled in a few hours.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.6243.
Net consumer credit in the UK advanced by £0.9 billion in August, more than market expectations of £0.8 billion. It had risen by £1.1 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in Britain dropped to 64.2K.
Overnight data indicated that, the Gfk consumer confidence in the UK eased to -1.0 in September. The pair is expected to find support at 1.622, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6187. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6281, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6309.
Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined by Britain’s crucial GDP figures.
USD/JPY
The USD weakened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.40.
Earlier today, data indicated that unemployment rate in Japan unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% in August, registering a 16-year low, lower than market expectations to rise to 3.8% and following a similar level registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, industrial production in Japan unexpectedly eased 1.5% on a monthly basis in August, less than market expectations for an advance of 0.2% and compared to 0.4% rise registered in the previous month.
USDCHF
The USD declined 0.12% against the CHF and closed at 0.9511.The pair is expected to find support at 0.9485, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9464. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9531, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9556.
Trading trends in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator, scheduled in a few hours.

 

[commexfx]

Daily Outlook 7-10-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR rose 1.12% against the USD and closed at 1.2652. On the macro front, the Sentix consumer confidence in the Euro-zone eased for the third consecutive month in October to -13.7, registering its lowest level since May 2013. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2525, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2439. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2686, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2761. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.75% against the USD and closed at 1.6077.In economic news, new car registrations in the UK registered a rise of 5.6%, on an annual basis, in September. It follows an increase of 9.4% registered in the prior month. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5961, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5891. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6101, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6171. Trading trends in the Pound today would be mainly determined by the NIESR’s UK GDP estimate for the three months to September, scheduled later in the day.
USD/JPY
The USD weakened 0.90% against the JPY and closed at 108.82. The pair is expected to find support at 108.68, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.71, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.21. Going forward, market participants await Japan’s leading economic as well as coincident indices data, scheduled shortly.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.97% against the CHF and closed at 0.9586. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9562, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9509. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9673, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9731.Meanwhile, investors would keep a close eye on Swiss consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours.