HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 15th September 2026.

NASDAQ Rebound Ends as US Bond Yields Break Above 5%.

Technology stocks attempt a rebound after declining to a five-week low. However, fundamentals continue to weigh on demand as yields and oil prices rise. The US 10-year bond yield has now reached the highest level since 2007 and risen above the critical 5% mark. Oil prices also continue to remain above $100 and have reached a high of $103.45.

In addition to volatility among technology stocks, the US Dollar also moves higher and is the best-performing currency. The worst-performing currencies are the Japanese Yen and New Zealand Dollar. Market indications continue to point towards investors pricing in more frequent rate hikes, lower consumer sentiment, and higher credit risk. A key indication that investors are paying close attention to is bond yields rising to levels that indirectly contributed to the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

NASDAQ Rebound Fails as Investors Await AI Clarity​

The NASDAQ has fallen 0.30% this morning and 1% from the most recent high. Investors on Monday did take advantage of the lower purchase price, which boosted demand as a result. However, many elements continue to point towards the possibility of stock market weakness.

A key development is in the AI sector which continues to see AI companies and the White House clash. Lawmakers are developing legislation to address AI safety concerns. This includes a bipartisan group of senators working on measures that would require leading AI developers to take steps to prevent catastrophic risks.

White House advisor David Sacks advises that AI-companies are looking for the government to loosen legislation related to antitrust and reliability. According to experts, this is not likely to change, and for this reason, AI-companies will look to slow production to closely monitor risks. Traders should keep in mind that AI development has been one of the key drivers of the market’s bullish trend over the past three years. A key risk for investors is the possibility that this momentum weakens, removing an important source of support for the broader market.

In addition to this, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the Chair’s tone are likely to create considerable volatility. Currently, investors are pricing in up to two interest rate hikes in 2026. If the Fed hikes tomorrow evening and takes a hawkish tone, demand for stocks could fall.

HFM - NASDAQ 12-Minute Chart

Currently, the price remains below key moving averages and below the VWAP. Order flow is also indicating weakness in demand. If the price falls below $29,004.38, sell signals from technical analysis are likely to strengthen. If the price rises above $29,215.65, sell signals in the short term will be completely erased.

GBP/USD - US Dollar Rises While UK Employment Weakness Pressures the Pound​

The British Pound is coming under pressure from the most recent employment data. The UK’s monthly benefit claims have risen by almost 28,000, significantly higher than previous expectations. The figure is also a three-month high and is considerably weaker compared to the latest US NFP data. In addition to this, the market continues to expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, unlike the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.20% during this morning’s Asian session and is also close to forming a bullish breakout. Supporting the US Dollar is the increase in bond yields and rate-hike expectations. The fact that US 10-year bond yields have risen above 5% could trigger lower risk appetite. This could also support the US Dollar due to its safe haven-status.

The price of the GBP/USD is forming clear bearish swings and lower highs. Technical indicators also point towards a bearish bias, but investors will be cautious of the support level at 1.34630. Bearish sentiment is likely to remain while the GBP/USD remains below the 200-bar moving average at 1.34915.

HFM - GBPUSD 12-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Technology stocks remain under pressure despite attempts to rebound from recent five-week lows.
• US 10-year bond yields above 5% are increasing concerns around borrowing costs and financial conditions.
• Oil prices above $100 are reinforcing inflation concerns and adding pressure on broader market sentiment.
• The US Dollar is strengthening as investors price in further rate hikes and rising risk aversion.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 16th September 2026.

Fed Rate Decision in Focus: GBP/USD, S&P 500, and Gold Outlook.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, while the Middle East and the AI slowdown take a back seat. Market participants are pricing in a rate hike of 0.25% which would be positive for the US Dollar but more or less negative for all other assets. However, a key element will be the Federal Reserve’s tone during the press conference.

The US Dollar Index rose to a two-week high this morning but has since lost momentum. Oil prices also continue to rise, putting further pressure for the Federal Reserve to continue hiking in the coming months. Lastly, Gold and equities continue to remain weak, but are not currently declining.

GBP/USD - Markets Price In Fed Rate Hike​

Of particular interest to traders who are looking to trade the Dollar long is the GBP/USD. The GBP is coming under pressure from the latest weak employment data and expectations of a Bank of England pause. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday and is likely to be the only central bank among the ‘top four’ currencies not to hike this month. The European Central Bank adjusted rates by 0.25% last week, and markets expect the Fed and Bank of Japan to do the same this week.

The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the week nor the month, however, it is the worst-performing currency of the past 24 hours. If the Fed and the BoJ both hike and sound relatively hawkish, the GBP may become unattractive in the medium term.

Currently, the bond market is indicating a hawkish Federal Reserve, however, the Fed Chair is not likely to give concrete guidance. Nonetheless, his tone on inflation could become extremely influential. If the Federal Reserve seems willing to hike consecutively, the US Dollar could again find support and again rise above 100.000.

HFM - GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD on a 1-hour timeframe is forming a descending triangle pattern, which indicates low demand for the pound. In addition to this, the GBP/USD is trading below the key moving averages on most timeframes. In the past hour, the bearish momentum has continued to gain speed as UK inflation failed to rise above expectations. As a result, a pause from the Bank of England now appears more likely.

S&P 500 - Sellers Remain Active​

The S&P 500 is experiencing impulse waves in both directions as there clearly seems to be a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Nonetheless, bearish impulse waves remain slightly larger than bullish ones. Currently, the stock market is under pressure from the possibility of an AI slowdown, higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, US-Canadian tariffs, and the possibility of multiple rate hikes.

The VIX Index trades slightly lower during this morning’s session, providing a slight positive for equities. However, the put-to-all ratio continues to indicate that sellers remain active.

In the short medium term, tonight’s Fed decision and press conference are likely to be the main price drivers. Currently, 93% of investors believe the Fed will hike tonight, but only 43% believe it will hike in October. If the possibility of an October rate hike increases, the stock market could continue to come under strain. Sell signals are likely to strengthen significantly if the price falls below $7,591.65. At this price, 65% of the retracement would have been lost, shifting momentum back in favour of sellers.

Gold Prices Spike Before Fed Decision​

During this morning’s Asian session, Gold witnessed strong gains. However, volatility remains uncertain until the market obtains clarity from the Federal Reserve. However, Gold remains under pressure on certain timeframes despite attempting to rebound. With spot gold trading near $4,328 today, the immediate technical picture remains neutral to bearish while price stays below $4,360–$4,380. A sustained break above this resistance could open the door toward a more bullish outlook.

However, in the short term, the bullish momentum from this morning is pushing the price above moving averages and the VWAP. Therefore, on certain timeframes, the indications are bullish. If the price falls back below $4,303, bullish signals will also fade on smaller timeframes.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway:​

• Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and guidance on future hikes.
• The US Dollar remains supported, while GBP/USD faces pressure from weaker UK fundamentals.
• The S&P 500 remains vulnerable as sellers stay active ahead of the Fed announcement.
• Gold is attempting to recover, but remains below key resistance levels in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.