HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 14th August 2026.

PPI Boosts Market Sentiment, Pushing Stocks Higher.

The latest inflation data from Wednesday saw the possibility of an interest rate hike fall slightly. However, an even more positive development for the stock market is the latest producer price index. The first reaction to the release of the Producer Price Index was minimal, but volatility soon kicked in as the US session opened.

The Producer Price Index did not rise at all in July, whereas analysts were expecting a moderate rise of 0.2%. As a result, producer inflation fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, significantly lower than market expectations. The PPI YoY continues to read higher than the Federal Reserve’s target but has now seen three consecutive months of declines. In addition to this, the Core Producer Price Index rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% consensus.

The lower producer inflation, along with the decline in oil prices is supportive of the global stock market. Crude oil prices have fallen more than 2% over the past 24 hours and any further decline could indicate a prolonged pause by the Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate hike in September continues to fall, from 40% on Wednesday to 32% this morning.

As a result, sentiment towards the stock market could rise further. However, analysts continue to advise that up-and-down volatility in the medium to longer term is likely to continue due to the AI trend, high earnings, and fear over AI-spending.

Cisco and Applied Materials Earnings Report​

Cisco, which made its quarterly earnings report public on Wednesday, is the 15th most influential stock in the NASDAQ. Applied Materials Inc. is the 16th most influential and together they make up 2.10% of the NASDAQ.

Cisco’s latest earnings report was strong, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 18% year-on- year to $17.3 billion, beating the high end of its guidance, while non-GAAP EPS increased 23% to $1.22. Cisco also reported a 35% increase in total product orders, with networking orders up 40%. Looking ahead, the company expects $72.2–$73.4 billion in revenue, suggesting continued growth. However, due to AI spending and the slightly lower gross margin are triggering a sell-off for the time being.

Applied Material stock has fallen 5% after the company announced its quarterly report, weakening the bullish momentum of the NASDAQ. Applied Material Inc. is experiencing a similar reaction to most stocks within this earnings season. The company saw both earnings and revenue beat expectations, but the stock declines suggest that the results were simply not high enough.

PPI Report Boost The NASDAQ​

The NASDAQ rose more than 1.30% in response to the Producer Price Index reading considerably lower than expectations. The inflation rate decline did little to change analysts’ views on upcoming interest rate decisions. However, Thursday’s PPI report was seen as particularly positive for the stock market.

The price of the NASDAQ is now trading above key moving averages on most timeframes and is yet to become overbought. In addition to this, the VIX continues to trade lower, indicating strong investor sentiment for now. However, the price this morning is trading slightly below the VWAP. Therefore, buy signals will strengthen once bullish momentum is regained.

Lastly, 76% of the NASDAQ’s most influential companies rose on Thursday, providing a further bullish indication from component analysis.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Inflation is cooling: July PPI was flat, lowering September Fed hike odds from 40% to 32%, which is bullish for stocks.
2. Earnings are strong, but expectations are higher: Cisco and Applied Materials beat estimates, yet both sold off as investors demanded more.
3. NASDAQ remains bullish: It jumped 1.3%+, trades above key moving averages, and remains below overbought levels.
4. Momentum needs confirmation: The VIX is falling, but NASDAQ is slightly below VWAP, so short-term volatility remains likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th August 2026.

Weak Dollar Triggers New Trends, But What Risks Remain?

The US Dollar declines for a second consecutive day reaching a key support level for the currency. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause for the upcoming months are driving the Dollar lower. At the same time, Gold and the stock market continue to gain bullish momentum and reach previous highs.

However, economists are paying close attention to bond yields, which continue to remain at a significant high and oil still trades above $80 per barrel. Over the weekend, Israel has attacked Iran’s proxy in Lebanon and Trump will soon announce the “economic plan” for Iran.

While oil prices remain above $80 and US bond yields remain high, the risk of a quick sudden decline is still elevated.

Historic Oil Disruptions

US Dollar Weakens To Key Levels​

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day despite higher oil prices and higher bond yields. The decline is driven by investors pricing in no rate hike in September or October. A prolonged pause has become likely for the upcoming 2 months due to a slightly weaker consumer inflation and considerably lower producer inflation.

However, investors should keep in mind that the Dollar index is trading at a key support level at 99.25. This level was tested on July 31st and August 7th. However, the price is not forming a descending triangle pattern but rather a range bound condition. This means that buyers continue to hold strength at times. On the other hand, as the asset continues to retest the support level, the level may weaken and prompt a breakout.

Even though the Dollar is trading clearly lower, investors should be cautious of high oil prices and bond yields which normally push the price higher.

The best performing currencies of the day so far are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc.

NASDAQ Rises But Risk Remain​

The NASDAQ moved higher, but not at the same pace as the decline seen in July. A neutral Federal Reserve is driving the bullish impulse wave. However, the fact that the Dollar is declining but yields are rising indicates key concerns for stocks. Investors fear the huge government borrowing, that inflation will remain high for years and that hikes will return later in the year.

Analysts advise that the AI trend will remain bumpy and that traders should be cautious of the above triggering a sudden decline. The key resistance level stands at $30,750, but NVIDIA’s earnings towards the end of the month will also influence the long-term price movement.

This week, the main earnings report release will come from Walmart which is the 12th most influential stock for the NASDAQ. Walmart stocks rose 3.90% over the past week.

Gold Turns Bullish In The Short-term​

The key factors for Gold are inflation and the Middle East. The US plans to hit Iran's economy hard, with President Donald Trump saying he doesn't care whether the conflict ends before the November US midterm elections. Scott Bessent also advises the move will hit Iran hard and will be the harshest ever seen. If the move keeps oil prices higher for longer, Gold may come under pressure again.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

The 30-minute and 1-hour signals are currently both “Strong Buy” according to moving averages. Gold also broke above the previous $4,380 resistance, while remaining above its short-term EMA structure. If the price rises above $4,406.00, which is the level where the current impulse wave surpasses 65% of the previous retracement, bullish signals will strengthen.

For bullish signals to be valid, traders will also be monitoring whether the Dollar remains closer to 99.00. Bond yields will also need to avoid rebounding during the day.

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Dollar falls for a second day as markets increasingly price in a Fed pause. The US Dollar Index is testing key support near 99.25.
• Gold and the NASDAQ remain bullish in the short-term, supported by a weaker Dollar and reduced expectations for rate hikes.
• High US bond yields and oil prices above $80 remain major risks and could trigger sudden reversals across markets.
• Middle East tensions and Trump’s upcoming economic measures against Iran could keep oil and inflation risks elevated.
• NVIDIA and Walmart earnings remain a key catalyst for the NASDAQ.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th August 2026.

Bond Market Fears Intensify as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold.

As President Trump refuses to prolong the US-Iran extension, markets turn their attention to bond yields and oil prices. Prospects for peace in the Middle East remain limited, with the White House appearing to pause temporarily to replenish resources before potentially escalating tensions again.

Economists and analysts are anxious about the level of debt-to-GDP which looks to continue to grow. Country debt levels are on the rise globally as countries are spending considerably more on defence. At the same time higher inflation is eating into consumer spending. As a result, bond sales are slumping and yields are rising considerably.

Bond Yields Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment​

Sovereign borrowing costs are rising sharply across major markets, with 30-year US Treasury yields, French government borrowing costs and German yields all climbing to elevated levels. Analysts and fund managers are increasing their exposure to short-term borrowing in order to avoid high interest rates.

The increase reflects broader global pressures, including geopolitical fragmentation, concerns over government spending and long-term shifts in market structure and demographics.

Higher bond yields are creating a risk-off sentiment due to investors fearing a debt-crisis and even an economic downturn. All global indices are trading lower while the VIX, Dollar and Oil prices rebound.

This will be a key issue for the US government and its fiscal policy. Some US firms are increasingly tapping overseas bond markets, with one example being Alphabet Inc.’s decision to market its debut Australian dollar debt issue of $3.6 billion.

Crude Oil Rises As The US Do Not Renew Its Current Ceasefire With Iran​

Positive dynamics are supported by a decrease in the probability of a peace agreement between the US and Iran soon. The deal announced earlier in the month by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent never took place and instead, the parties demanded reparation payments from each other and intensified attacks on civilian tankers. As a result, a long blockade and an expansion of the energy crisis are expected.

President Trump has told his administration not to renew the ceasefire with Iran and has also warned Oman. As a result, oil prices are trading higher over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the president said that the US still held leverage over Iran, pointing to the naval blockade of Iranian ports. He also repeated his proposal to declare the waterway US territory, arguing that Washington maintained full control over it.

This morning, Crude Oil prices rose above $85 for the first time in August. If oil prices remain elevated, inflation is likely to become sticky and increase the possibility of an interest rate hike in October. As a result, the US Dollar may continue to rebound and stocks to decline.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

NASDAQ Falls Over Key Economic and Fiscal Concerns​

The NASDAQ is declining this morning and looks likely to form a third day of consecutive falls. The NASDAQ is coming under pressure from bond yields and oil prices which are triggering a lower market risk appetite. The VIX Index this morning is trading 1.50% higher and the Put to Call ratio is again on the rise. This is currently verifying the risk-off sentiment.

Investors fear that the cost of debt and higher debt-to-GDP adds an additional level of risk to the stock market. In addition to this, higher oil prices and lower employment data globally also points to risks from both the monetary policy and consumer demand.

If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and bond yields do not subside, the NASDAQ remains at risk of further downside. Two key support levels can be seen at $29,139 and $29,435.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

In the short-term, the NASDAQ is trading below key Moving Averages and is forming lower lows and highs. This supports the bearish bias but the price has slightly retraced higher. For this reason, investors will be looking for the price to again decline below $29,750 in order to witness stronger sell indications from the price action and indicators.

If the NASDAQ is to rebound upwards, the resistance levels can be seen at $29,852 and $30,207.

Key Takeaways:​

• US-Iran tensions remain elevated, with the US not extending the ceasefire and prospects for a near-term peace agreement appearing limited.
• Global bond yields are rising sharply as investors worry about growing government debt, higher defence spending, inflation and the risk of an economic slowdown.
• Crude oil has climbed above $85, raising concerns that inflation could remain persistent and increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure as higher oil prices, rising bond yields and weaker risk appetite weigh on equities, keeping the short-term outlook bearish.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 19th August 2026.

Why Gold, Stocks and the Dollar are Declining at the Same Time.

US bond yields slightly fell during the US session to the relief of most investors. However, the stock market, Gold and the US Dollar continue to decline despite the cooling yields. Gold, the US Dollar and even the equities market are normally correlated and do not usually simultaneously move lower.

However, what we are witnessing is not a typical “risk-off” move. Instead, it reflects a combination of weaker US growth expectations, a bond-market selloff, and renewed inflation concerns. This is causing the US Dollar, Gold, and stocks to decline simultaneously. Behind this scenario are higher oil prices and weaker employment data, which are raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may find it increasingly difficult to bring inflation under control without putting further pressure on the economy.

For this reason, investors will continue to pay close attention to the bond yields, oil prices and also the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. The Jackson Hole event will take place towards the end of next week.

HFM - Lack of Traditional Correlation On Tuesday 18th

Gold to Rebound as Yields Retrace and Dollar Continues to Fall?​

High bond yields do not instantly mean that Gold will decline, but if yields continue to rise in the longer-term, Gold can come under immense pressure. A good example of this was in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Bond yields rose sharply and Gold saw a quick change in trend where it fell by 15% at times.

Bond yields are retracing lower due to the US pausing tariffs on Canada, a key trade partner for the US. The White House halted the duties after Canada committed to removing discriminatory measures affecting US autos, dairy, and alcohol. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two sides have made substantial progress, although important work remains. Neither side disclosed whether earlier sticking points would be resolved.

The US Dollar Index on Tuesday moved sideways and this morning is declining by more than 0.20%. Currently, the US Dollar is the worst performing currency of the day along with the Australian Dollar. However, Gold prices are yet to witness sustained bullish momentum in response. If the US Dollar continues to decline, bullish price movement for Gold will become more likely particularly if crude oil prices fall lower. Currently, crude oil is trading 0.50% higher.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Gold on the 5-Minute timeframe is still trading below the 200-bar simple moving average and is currently trading at the VWAP. For this reason, the price remains neutral, but this indication may turn bullish if the price rises above $4,352.35. This is a key price for bullish price action on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $4,339.00 and the US Dollar rebounds, buy signals would fully fade.

S&P 500 - Meta Stocks Struggle as Various States Dispute the Company’s Ethics and Intentions​

The selloff seen overnight for the US equities measured 0.71%, a moderate decline, but not a unique fall to indicate a larger longer-term selloff. However, an interesting element to the decline was that the fall took place with virtually minimal retracements and attempts to rise.

The decline is largely related to high bond yields, worries over inflation and also the tech sector. The largest declines are largely from technology companies such as Meta, Micron Technologies and NVIDIA.

Meta stocks saw a decline of 4.45% due to its largest legal trial starting in the US. In the opening statements on Tuesday, attorneys general from four states alleged Meta engineered Facebook and Instagram to be addictive and damaging to young adults while misrepresenting their safety. This is part of a broader case brought by 29 states. Analysts advise Meta is likely to continue witnessing mounting legal cases globally. In addition to this, bans on platforms for under 16s are also likely to be introduced by more countries.

A positive factor for the stock market this morning is the decline in bond yields. However, bond yields, oil prices and the US Dollar will continue to impact the S&P 500.

In terms of the market’s risk appetite, the VIX is currently trading 0.35% higher. The increase is not positive for the S&P 500, however, the VIX is not high enough to point to significant downward volatility. The put-to-call ratio is at 0.74 which provides a bearish bias but is not indicating a stock market crash.

HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeways:​

• Gold, the USD and stocks are declining together, reflecting weaker growth expectations, inflation concerns and pressure from elevated bond yields.
• Bond yields have eased slightly, helped by the US pausing tariffs on Canada, but investors remain focused on oil prices and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Gold remains technically neutral, with $4,352.35 acting as a key bullish level. However, price action will depend on the US Dollar, bond yields but also oil prices.
• The S&P 500 remains under pressure, led by technology stocks. While VIX and put-to-call data point to bearish sentiment but not extreme market stress.
• Meta shares fell 4.45% as a major US trial began, with four states alleging that Facebook and Instagram were designed to be addictive and harmful to young users.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 20th August 2026.

Historic US Intervention Sees Gold Spike More Than 4%.

A historic day for the US and for global banking and finance. The US Dollar fell to its lowest point since the first half of May 2026 and Gold saw its largest increase in two months. The US Treasury, for the first time in decades, intervened in the bond market to purposely lower yields. In addition to this, Trump told journalists that the economic plan for Iran is starting soon.

The US Treasury is a regular buyer of US bonds, but not in the same way as the Fed and not to influence the market. The Treasury would normally purchase bonds in order to manage its debt maturity profile. However, the Treasury is seen as attempting to apply unconventional pressure to lower yields and reduce mortgage interest rates. This puts the government at odds with the Federal Reserve again.

HFM - US Dollar 4-Hour Chart

Trump Economic Plan Keeps Oil Above $85​

Trump has announced a new ‘economic warfare’ campaign against Iran, describing it as an ‘economic D-Day’ aimed at further isolating Tehran and forcing it to accept US demands. The plan will include sanctions, financial restrictions, and pressure on Iran’s oil trade.

Experts advise that this will include targeting not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, shipping companies, and countries that help Iran bypass sanctions. As a result, crude oil prices remain above $85 per barrel for a third day.

US Treasury vs The Federal Reserve​

The Federal Reserve traditionally oversees the condition of interest rates, bond yields, and economic stability. What investors do not want to see from the US Treasury is unpredictability, yet this is what they saw. This is the first time in US history that the US government has deliberately bought long-term bonds to calm a surge in yields.

The Treasury announced that it would double certain long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is specifically targeting bonds with maturities between 10 and 30 years. This came after the 30-year yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007.

This indicates to markets that high bond yields are worrying US economists and that the government fears yields may become ‘out of control’. A higher fiscal deficit and higher yields can trigger a global recession if the trend continues. As a result, investors sold the Dollar and opted for Gold. The move suggests traders are seeking alternative safe-haven assets to reduce exposure.

Simultaneously, investors are worried that Japan will have to sell US Treasury bonds in order to fund further currency interventions. This could further increase US bond yields and create a recurring issue for the US. Higher bond yields would normally support the US Dollar. However, if yields reach levels that trigger fear over fiscal stability, investors tend to turn to alternatives.

Key Correlation Returns​

Wednesday saw the traditional correlation between the US Dollar and Gold return after both fell on Tuesday. This was because investors were simultaneously concerned about rising inflation, bond yields, and the lack of Federal Reserve reaction. More information on this can be found here.

However, with the Treasury’s historic move, investors are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about fiscal policy and government debt levels. As a result, the correlation has returned, with the US Dollar declining and Gold rising.

Gold - Technique Analysis​

Gold’s technical picture turned sharply bullish yesterday, with XAU/USD rising more than 4% and breaking decisively through the $4,455–$4,555 resistance zone. The move created a strong bullish daily candle and confirmed a breakout from the recent consolidation. The price also pushed above the 200-day moving average, and most momentum-based indications are pointing to upward price movement.

The US Dollar continues to be one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, which is positive for Gold. In addition to this, Silver is also increasing during this morning’s Asian session, indicating that demand is across multiple metals, not only Gold. If Gold prices decline below $4,471.80, buy signals will significantly weaken in the short to medium term. Remaining above this price will continue to indicate that buyers are controlling the price action.

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart


Possible targets for Gold in the short term remain the psychological price and resistance levels between $4,500 and $4,529.

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Treasury’s intervention in long-term bonds marks a major shift in government involvement in financial markets.
• The US Dollar has fallen sharply as concerns increase over fiscal stability and government debt.
• Gold gained more than 4%, breaking key resistance levels and strengthening its bullish technical outlook.
• Oil remains above $85 as the US prepares a new economic pressure campaign against Iran.
• Markets are increasingly focused on rising bond yields, fiscal risks, and growing tension between Treasury policy and the Federal Reserve.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 21st August 2026.

Gold Rises as Treasury Yields Rebound and Walmart Pressures the NASDAQ.

Scott Bessent continues to support the Treasury’s move to buy back long-term bonds and has indicated larger future buybacks. The bond market did see yields decline after the Treasury announced its ‘new strategy’. However, yields are quickly rebounding, indicating that the US government may struggle to beat bond vigilantes.

On Friday, the trend of the past 48 hours continues with the stock market and the US Dollar declining and Gold rising. Investors are looking to determine how to change their price targets based on the changing market conditions and fundamentals.

Walmart Earnings Pressure The NASDAQ Lower​

The NASDAQ has fallen for five consecutive days as investors are pricing in higher inflation due to sticky oil prices, interest rate hikes, and a fiscal debt crisis. However, the NASDAQ is slightly retracing this morning and is not yet trading below the recent price range. For this reason, technical indicators are neutral for now, but bearish signals remain possible.

In addition to the market risks mentioned above, the latest earnings report from Walmart is also applying downward pressure. Walmart stock fell 9.00% during yesterday’s trading session and is trading 0.30% higher during this morning’s pre-market trading.

The main earnings data for the company, including earnings per share and revenue, came in relatively strong. However, Walmart’s comparable sales increased only 2.6%, versus approximately 3.8% expected. It was Walmart's first same-store sales miss in 5 years and its slowest comparable-sales growth in 6 years.

HFM - NASDAQ 3-Hour Chart

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is trading above the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart. However, the moving average continues to trade lower, and moving averages indicate bearish price movement on all other timeframes. Component analysis on Thursday indicated bearish price movement. This is due to 69% of the most influential components declining and the most volatile stocks falling, not increasing. However, the VIX index is trading slightly higher this morning, which may point to a retracement.

If the price rises above $29,397, buy signals can materialise as the price rises above a key trendline and away from the VWAP. A move above this price can indicate a daily correction. However, if the price regains bearish momentum, dropping below $29,206, sell signals remain intact.

Gold Maintains Bullish Indications​

Gold remains technically bullish after breaking above the key $4,500 psychological level, which now acts as an important support zone. As long as XAU/USD holds above $–$4,470, buyers remain in control, with resistance at $4,565, followed by $4,580 and $4,610. Currently, gold is being supported by investors fearing instability, government debt, and a possible recession.

Momentum remains strong but increasingly stretched after the recent rally, raising the risk of short-term profit-taking. A break above $4,560 could extend gains towards $4,600, while a move back below $4,500 could trigger a deeper correction towards $4,470–$4,450. If inflation or oil prices rise, Gold may again come under pressure from rate-hike expectations.

EURUSD - Dollar Weakness and ECB Rate Hike Support The Euro​

One of the best-performing currencies this week has been the Euro which has found support from Dollar weakness and expectations of an ECB September rate hike. The EUR/USD remains technically bullish, trading close to 1.1670–1.1700 as continued US Dollar weakness supports the pair. Immediate resistance is at 1.1700, followed by 1.1750; a sustained break above 1.1700 could strengthen the bullish trend and potentially open the way towards higher levels.

On the downside, 1.1650 is the first important support, followed by 1.1600-1.1550. As long as EUR/USD remains above this zone, buyers retain the advantage, while a break below 1.1550 would weaken the current bullish structure. This could increase the risk of a deeper correction.

HFM - EURUSD 15-Minute Chart

According to Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, the Dollar’s decline over the past two days is purely market noise. While Bessent was speaking with journalists, he advised that the markets will soon see the Treasury’s intentions and that volatility will normalise.

Key Takeaways:​

• US Treasury bond buybacks pushed yields lower initially, but yields are rebounding, showing that pressure in the bond market remains.
• Walmart shares fell 9% despite solid headline earnings, as comparable sales missed expectations and raised concerns about consumer strength.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure from inflation concerns, higher oil prices, rate-hike expectations, and fiscal risks.
• Gold remains technically bullish above $4,500, supported by concerns over debt, instability, and recession risks.
• EUR/USD remains bullish, supported by US Dollar weakness and expectations of a possible ECB rate hike.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th August 2026.

Market Outlook Today: Gold Rallies as Oil and Asian Stocks Fall.

Today’s market outlook is dominated by geopolitical tension, US fiscal concerns, and uncertainty ahead of several major events. Gold reached a three-month high overnight, while oil prices and Asian stocks declined as traders awaited details of new US sanctions against Iran.

Attention will later shift towards NVIDIA’s earnings, US inflation data, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Together, these events could drive volatility across commodities, currencies, bonds, and global stock markets.

Key takeaways​

• Gold climbed above $4,640 as concerns about US debt and dollar weakness increased demand for alternative assets.
• Oil fell by around 2% due to profit-taking, but risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated.
• Asian stocks declined, led by sharp losses in Samsung, Alibaba, and other technology-related companies.
• NVIDIA’s earnings on Wednesday could determine whether the AI-driven stock market rally can continue.
• Traders will monitor Iran sanctions, US inflation, and Jackson Hole for their potential impact on interest rate expectations.

Asian Stocks Fall as Technology Concerns Increase​

Asian equity markets traded lower overnight. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell around 0.9%, while South Korean technology shares came under particular pressure. Japan’s Nikkei remained close to unchanged after losing almost 4% last week.

Samsung Electronics fell 7.5% as investors reacted negatively to its plans to return capital to shareholders. Alibaba dropped 9.7% after announcing a $10.2 billion share sale to finance its expansion in artificial intelligence. SoftBank also declined after revealing plans for a record retail bond offering in Japan.

These developments highlight a change in the AI investment narrative. Investors are no longer focusing only on how much companies are spending on AI. They increasingly want evidence that these investments can generate sustainable revenue and attractive returns.

European and US equity futures were relatively stable during the Asian session, indicating that many investors are avoiding large positions ahead of this week’s major events.

NVIDIA Earnings Could Determine the Direction of Technology Stocks​

Nvidia will report its quarterly results on Wednesday, making the announcement one of the most important events of the week for global stock markets.

Analysts expect the chipmaker’s quarterly revenue to almost double to approximately $92 billion. However, these high expectations create considerable risk if revenue, profit margins or forward guidance disappoint.

Investors will also examine the effect of Nvidia’s reported price increases on customer demand. Rising hardware costs may reduce the potential returns of companies already investing heavily in AI infrastructure.

Strong results and guidance could revive demand for technology and semiconductor stocks. A disappointment, however, may reinforce concerns about expensive valuations and the sustainability of the AI-led rally.

Oil Prices Fall, but Iran Risks Remain Elevated​

Oil prices declined by around 2% during early Asian trading as traders took profits following last week’s gains of more than 5%.

Brent crude moved towards $93 per barrel, while WTI traded close to $85. The decline does not necessarily indicate an improvement in the geopolitical situation. Instead, traders appear to be reducing positions before the US announces its latest economic measures against Iran.

The new sanctions are expected to target entities involved in buying and transporting Iranian oil, processing the country’s financial transactions and supporting transfers of fuel at sea.

If the measures discourage buyers, banks and shipping companies from handling Iranian crude, global oil supplies could tighten further. Iran has also warned that participation in the US economic campaign may be treated as an act of war.

Diplomatic efforts have not completely disappeared, with Pakistan attempting to encourage renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, the absence of confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours has reduced some immediate pressure on oil prices.

For traders, the key issue is whether the sanctions will materially reduce Iranian exports or provoke another escalation in the region.

Gold Reaches Its Highest Level in Three Months​

Gold extended its rally above $4,640 per ounce, reaching its highest level since May. The precious metal gained more than 5% last week and has risen over 15% so far in August.

The rally is being supported by concerns over US debt, fiscal policy and the dollar’s long-term purchasing power. The Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government bonds initially pushed yields and the dollar lower, making gold more attractive.

Hedge funds have also increased their bearish positions on the US dollar, while institutional demand for protection against further dollar weakness has grown. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their strongest weekly inflows since January, indicating broader participation in the rally.

Nevertheless, gold’s rapid advance creates the possibility of short-term profit-taking. A recovery in the US dollar or real bond yields would be among the main risks to its bullish momentum.

US Bond Yields Remain a Concern for Stock Markets​

Despite the Treasury’s intervention, long-term US borrowing costs remain elevated. The 30-year Treasury yield is above 5.25%, close to its highest level in 19 years, while the 10-year yield is trading near 4.71%.

Higher yields can pressure stocks by making government bonds more attractive. They also reduce the present value of companies’ future earnings, creating a particular challenge for highly valued technology shares.

Traders will therefore assess whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presents a credible fiscal plan for addressing government borrowing and rising debt. Increased bond buybacks may temporarily support the market, but concerns could continue without meaningful progress on budget deficits.

US Dollar Remains Under Pressure​

The US Dollar Index is trading near 96.80 after falling approximately 0.8% last week. Investors are concerned that greater government involvement in the Treasury market could weaken confidence in the currency.

The euro held close to $1.1680, while USDJPY traded around 158.90.

The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback after trade negotiations between the US and Canada collapsed. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs covering US steel, dairy products, electronics, agricultural equipment and other goods.

The dispute could increase inflationary pressure and create further volatility in USDCAD.

What Should Traders Watch Today?​

The main event today will be the announcement detailing the new US sanctions against Iran. Traders should focus on whether the measures directly affect oil buyers, banks, shipping companies or countries helping Tehran maintain its exports.

Stricter sanctions could lift oil prices and inflation expectations. This may push bond yields higher, pressure stock markets and create a more complicated environment for gold. The precious metal could benefit from geopolitical uncertainty but may face resistance if real yields rise sharply.

Later this week, attention will turn to:

• Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday
• US inflation figures
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday
• Further developments in the US-Canada trade dispute
• Oil flows and tanker activity around the Strait of Hormuz

Markets currently indicate approximately a 40% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with a move fully priced by December. These expectations could change if inflation remains elevated or the Fed Chair signals that interest rates may need to remain higher.

Market Outlook for the Rest of the Day​

The market outlook today remains highly dependent on political and economic headlines. Oil could react sharply to the details of the Iran sanctions, while gold may remain supported by dollar weakness and concerns surrounding US fiscal policy.

Stock market activity may remain cautious before Nvidia’s earnings and the Jackson Hole gathering. Traders should prepare for sudden price movements, monitor bond yields and avoid assuming that Monday’s relatively quiet opening means volatility has disappeared.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 25th August 2026.

Markets Stabilise Ahead of NVIDIA Earnings as Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000.

US stock index futures moved higher on Tuesday as selling pressure across the technology sector began to ease. However, with NVIDIA earnings, the Jackson Hole symposium, and geopolitical risks all in focus, volatility may remain elevated across stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

NASDAQ 100 futures gained approximately 0.4% after the technology-heavy index came under pressure during Monday’s session. The decline was driven largely by semiconductor stocks, with investors reducing exposure before NVIDIA releases its quarterly results on Wednesday.

Asian markets delivered a mixed performance, although the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index recovered from earlier losses. European equity markets were also positioned for a positive opening, suggesting that risk sentiment had improved slightly.

Nevertheless, the recovery remains cautious rather than decisive.

NVIDIA Earnings Could Set the Direction for Technology Stocks​

NVIDIA has become one of the most important indicators of investor confidence in the artificial intelligence sector. Its shares fell 2.9% on Monday, extending their longest losing streak since 2022, while Micron Technology and Broadcom also recorded notable declines.

The weakness reflects growing concerns that valuations across the semiconductor sector may have moved too far ahead of underlying earnings growth.

NVIDIA’s upcoming results will therefore be examined for evidence that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. Traders are likely to focus on revenue growth, data centre demand, profit margins, and management’s forward guidance.

Strong results and an optimistic outlook could revive demand for semiconductor and technology shares. However, disappointing guidance may reinforce concerns that the AI investment cycle is slowing, potentially placing further pressure on the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500.

This makes NVIDIA’s announcement more than an individual corporate event. It could influence sentiment across the entire AI trade and determine whether the recent weakness in technology stocks develops into a broader correction.

Bitcoin Breaks Through $80,000​

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, extending a strong recovery across the cryptocurrency market. The asset briefly traded above $81,000 and has gained approximately 28% during August.

Several factors have supported the rally.

Proposed legislation offering greater regulatory clarity for the US cryptocurrency industry has improved sentiment. At the same time, concerns surrounding US debt, Treasury-market intervention, and the long-term value of the dollar have encouraged renewed interest in alternative assets.

The US Treasury’s plan to expand purchases of longer-dated bonds has also revived discussion around the ‘debasement trade.’ If government intervention limits the rise in bond yields without resolving underlying debt concerns, some investors may shift capital towards assets perceived as independent of traditional monetary systems.

Bitcoin has benefited from this narrative alongside Gold, although the cryptocurrency’s stronger momentum has produced a more aggressive price move.

From a technical perspective, maintaining a position above $80,000 could strengthen bullish momentum and bring the $85,000 region into focus. A more sustained breakout could eventually encourage speculation about a move towards $95,000–$100,000.

However, after such a rapid monthly advance, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to profit-taking. A return below $80,000 would suggest that the breakout has lost momentum, while a deeper decline could place attention back on the previous consolidation area.

Oil Falls Despite Increased Pressure on Iran​

Oil prices extended their decline as traders assessed the latest US measures against Iran.

Brent crude fell towards $91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded close to $84. Both benchmarks had already declined by more than 2% during Monday’s session as investors took profits following two weeks of gains.

The United States has threatened additional economic penalties against countries continuing to conduct business with Iran. However, the market appears to view economic sanctions as a lower immediate threat to physical oil supplies than direct military action.

This explains why oil prices declined instead of rising following the announcement.

Nevertheless, the geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared. Iran continues to threaten action against vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy exports. Reports that a tanker was damaged near Oman also highlighted the continuing threat to regional shipping.

Oil traders must therefore balance two opposing forces: reduced expectations of an immediate military escalation and the persistent possibility of supply disruption.

A further decline in Brent could indicate that geopolitical concerns are being priced out of the market. Any confirmed disruption to shipping or oil production, however, could quickly reverse the move.

Treasury Yields Stabilise as Debt Concerns Remain​

The US 10-year Treasury yield held close to 4.71% after declining by approximately four basis points on Monday.

Bonds initially found support following reports that the Treasury could use part of its cash reserves to fund purchases of older, higher-yielding securities. Such buybacks may improve market liquidity and reduce pressure on longer-term borrowing costs.

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stopped short of announcing further changes to US debt management policy. This left investors questioning whether buybacks can provide more than temporary relief.

The larger concerns remain the scale of US government borrowing, persistent inflation, and elevated oil prices. Unless these pressures ease, long-term yields could remain high even if Treasury intervention generates short-term demand for bonds.

For equity traders, the direction of yields remains particularly important. Falling yields may support growth and technology shares by reducing the rate used to value future earnings. Renewed upward pressure could create another obstacle for the NASDAQ and other highly valued areas of the market.

Gold Struggles to Maintain Earlier Gains​

Gold briefly reached its highest level since May before reversing lower towards $4,640 per ounce.

The metal has recently benefited from concerns about government debt, possible currency debasement, and instability in the bond market. However, a recovery in the US Dollar and profit-taking limited Tuesday’s advance.

Gold is currently being influenced by several competing factors. Fiscal uncertainty and geopolitical risks provide support, while elevated Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

As a result, the direction of the Dollar and long-term bond yields may remain central to Gold’s next significant move.

Jackson Hole Places Interest Rates Back in Focus​

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Investors will look for indications of how the central bank intends to respond to stubborn inflation, elevated energy prices, and signs of slower economic growth.

A more restrictive message could support the Dollar and bond yields while placing pressure on stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin. A more balanced or accommodative tone may provide relief to risk assets, particularly if NVIDIA’s earnings also exceed expectations.

This creates two major tests for markets during the same week: NVIDIA must reinforce confidence in corporate earnings and the AI trade, while the Federal Reserve must provide greater clarity on the interest rate outlook.

What Traders Should Watch​

The most important developments over the coming sessions include:

• NVIDIA’s earnings, guidance, and the reaction across semiconductor stocks
• Whether the NASDAQ 100 can sustain its recovery
• Bitcoin’s ability to remain above $80,000
• Changes in US Treasury yields and the Dollar
• Brent crude’s response to developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
• Gold’s ability to attract demand despite elevated yields
• Kevin Warsh’s comments on inflation and interest rates at Jackson Hole

Market sentiment has improved, but the recovery remains fragile. With technology earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks converging, traders should prepare for higher volatility and potential reversals across multiple asset classes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 26th August 2026.

Oman-Iran Talks Pressure Oil Prices, but Many Investors Remain Unpersuaded.

Crude oil prices continue to fall for a third day as hopes for the Strait of Hormuz reopening rise. At the same time, economic sanctions placed on Iran are weaker than originally feared, and US inventories rise supporting further downward price movement.

Nonetheless, investors continue to remain sceptical over a long-lasting peace deal. For this reason, the possibility of crude oil’s bearish trend losing steam remains. Key factors influencing price volatility are the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week.

US-Iran Tensions Influencing Oil Markets​

Iran and Oman have agreed on the outline of a temporary navigation corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, this plan includes a joint mine-clearing and further technical talks on shipping security. However, the Strait has not fully reopened yet, and vessel traffic remains well below normal levels. The development has still reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, though major risks remain.

The US has announced secondary sanctions on Iran and its trading partners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said restrictions will target individuals, vessels, and companies involved in buying Iranian oil or supporting its nuclear and missile programmes. At the same time, President Trump said no talks with Iran are planned, increasing fears of renewed conflict.

Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio, has told European allies that the attacks have ‘stopped for now’. This also follows what most analysts believe: that the Strait will remain partially closed and tensions are likely to rise again. However, traders cannot be certain when tensions will again rise, affecting oil prices.

Crude Oil Impact - Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP​

The US Dollar and interest rates can play an important role in the pricing of crude oil. For today’s US data, markets are expecting Core PCE inflation to rise by around 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate around 3.2-3.3%. Meanwhile, the Q2 GDP second estimate is expected to be revised to 1.5%

For the Dollar, Core PCE is likely to be the more important release for traders. This is because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. A reading above expectations would increase pressure on the Fed to consider higher rates, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the Dollar higher. If the GDP data also rise, the possibility of a rate hike increases substantially. A reading below expectations would reduce rate-hike expectations and could weaken the Dollar.

A more expensive Dollar and expectations of an interest rate hike can pressure oil prices, while a weaker Dollar may support crude oil

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis​

HFM - Crude Oil Daily Chart

WTI is trading close to $80 after falling sharply from weekly highs, with the short-term technical bias turning bearish. The price has broken below the $82 support area and is trading below its key moving averages, while the MACD remains negative. The RSI is around 34, showing strong selling pressure but also suggesting that the market is getting closer to oversold conditions.

Medium-term timeframes are also indicating downward price movement, however, the support level at $78.60 is a risk for sellers. If the price remains below the 200-bar moving average, at $81.25 on the 5-minute timeframe, sell signals may remain active.

Key Takeaways:​

• Oil continues to decline as hopes rise for a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US sanctions proving less severe than feared, and higher US inventories also support lower oil prices.
• Geopolitical risk remains high, as traders expect US-Iran tensions could quickly escalate in the future, potentially limiting further declines.
• Core PCE and GDP are key upcoming catalysts: stronger US data could support the Dollar and rate-hike expectations, adding pressure on oil, while weaker data could support prices.
• WTI remains technically bearish near $80, trading below key moving averages, although support around $78.60 may limit further downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 28th August 2026.

Markets Brace for Jackson Hole: USD, Gold, Oil, and Stocks in Focus.

Global markets are entering the final trading sessions of August with investors focused on one major event: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

The US Dollar is trading close to a one-week high, Treasury yields remain elevated, Gold has come under pressure, and US stock futures have turned cautious after the latest NVIDIA-driven technology rally. At the same time, oil prices are heading towards a sizeable weekly decline as developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium.

For traders, these themes are closely connected. Changes in interest rate expectations and bond yields could quickly influence currencies, commodities, and global stock indices.

The US Dollar Index is trading around the 99.20 area, close to its highest level in a week.

EUR/USD has slipped towards $1.1645, while GBP/USD is trading near $1.3588. USD/JPY has also moved higher towards 159.55 as the Japanese Yen gives back some of its recent intervention-driven gains.

The Dollar's recent strength largely reflects caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium and renewed expectations that US interest rates may need to remain high.

Recent inflation data has shown that price pressures remain persistent, while several Federal Reserve officials have continued to express concerns over inflation.

Markets are currently pricing approximately a 35% probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with expectations for tightening increasing considerably towards the end of the year.

This puts significant attention on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance.

Warsh is scheduled to speak at 14:00 GMT, and traders will be searching for clues about three major issues:

• Inflation and whether the Federal Reserve believes price pressures remain too high.
• The possibility of additional interest rate increases.
• How the Fed views the recent volatility in US Treasury markets.

The key issue is not necessarily whether Warsh explicitly signals a hike. He has resisted forward guidance. Traders will instead look for his reaction function: what would make the Fed tighten, how concerned it is about inflation, and how it views the recent bond market volatility. That makes the tone of the speech particularly important.

A hawkish message could strengthen rate-hike expectations and provide further support for the Dollar. However, Warsh has historically been reluctant to provide explicit forward guidance, creating another potential risk: markets may react negatively if his speech fails to reduce uncertainty surrounding Fed policy.

The last scenario is particularly interesting. Silence may not be neutral. With markets already uncomfortable about inflation and US fiscal policy, insufficient guidance could push the term premium and long-term yields higher.

US Treasury yields remain one of the most important indicators for traders.

The US 10-year yield is trading close to 4.68%, while the 30-year yield remains above 5%.

Higher yields generally support the Dollar but can create pressure on Gold and stocks by increasing borrowing costs and making risk-free government debt more attractive.

The situation has become even more important after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to increase purchases of longer-term government bonds in an attempt to improve liquidity and reduce pressure on borrowing costs.

This creates an unusual policy environment.

The Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation, while the Treasury is simultaneously attempting to reduce pressure at the longer end of the bond market.

How Warsh addresses this environment could therefore be just as important as what he says about the next Fed rate decision.
Gold has slipped towards $4,575 per ounce, with the stronger Dollar and elevated Treasury yields limiting demand.

The precious metal could remain highly sensitive to Warsh’s comments.

If markets increase expectations for another Fed rate hike, Treasury yields could move higher and strengthen the Dollar, potentially adding pressure on Gold.

On the other hand, any indication that the Fed is becoming more concerned about economic growth or financial stability could push yields lower and create renewed support for the precious metal.

For Gold traders, the reaction in the US Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yield may provide some of the clearest signals following the speech.

Oil is experiencing a different form of pressure.

Brent crude has fallen towards $89 per barrel and is on track for a weekly decline of more than 5%.

The main driver has been progress between Iran and Oman over the management of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared.

The US remains reluctant to return to previous agreement terms with Iran, sanctions remain in place, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait continues.

This leaves oil vulnerable to sudden geopolitical moves in either direction.

Oil prices are also relevant to the broader monetary policy outlook. Another major increase in energy prices could fuel inflation, strengthen expectations for higher interest rates, and place further upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Technology stocks remain supported by strong enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.

NVIDIA shares surged almost 9% following strong results and an optimistic outlook for continued AI infrastructure spending.

However, the initial boost to broader markets has started to fade as investors turn their attention back towards interest rates.

Another important trend is emerging beneath the AI rally.

Companies have issued approximately $72 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds this year, with AI-related businesses among the major issuers.

Strong demand allows companies to raise capital without paying traditional interest, as investors instead receive the potential opportunity to convert their bonds into shares.

But the scale of AI investment also highlights a growing challenge: funding massive infrastructure expansion in an environment of historically high borrowing costs.

This makes Treasury yields increasingly important for technology traders.

Strong AI earnings may continue supporting the NASDAQ, but persistently high yields could restrict valuations and increase financing costs across the sector.
The immediate focus is likely to remain on four connected markets.

• US Dollar: A more hawkish Fed outlook could extend the Dollar’s recent recovery.
• Treasury yields: The 10-year yield around 4.68% remains an important gauge of interest rate and inflation expectations.
• Gold: Higher yields and a stronger Dollar could maintain pressure, while falling yields may provide support.
• Stock indices: AI optimism continues to support technology shares, but high borrowing costs remain a significant risk.

Meanwhile, oil remains the major geopolitical wildcard, with developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz capable of quickly changing inflation expectations.

With monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics, and AI investment all influencing markets simultaneously, volatility could remain elevated as August draws to a close.

For traders, following the relationship between Treasury yields, the US Dollar and risk sentiment may be particularly important in identifying the next major market move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.