Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

NZD halted its growth. Overview for 05.04.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, has come to a pause. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6006.

The Kiwi dollar has regained a relatively stable position. The market turned in favour of currencies other than the US dollar after Federal Reserve officials once again expressed their doubts about the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut.

These deliberations will be endless until the Fed makes a final decision and announces it to the market.

Nevertheless, the market consensus forecast for the NZD suggests that the Kiwi will rise this year, following the AUD's trajectory and benefitting from the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate.

Signals from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are reasonably consistent. It has previously stated that it remains focused on controlling inflation.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD managed to rise. Overview for 08.04.2024

The Australian dollar increased against the US dollar on Monday. The current exchange rate for AUDUSD stands at 0.6578.

The Aussie remains in a sideways movement globally. A month ago, AUD was at approximately the same level. An unexpectedly strong US employment report reduced anticipation that the Federal Reserve may initiate a monetary policy easing phase as early as June, allowing currencies other than the USD to stabilise their positions.

Australian statistical data showed that new home loans grew less than forecasted in February. The construction of new homes slowed down, which appeared to impact the bank's lending parameters. The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate remains at a twelve-year high of 4.35% per annum. At the last meeting, the RBA left it unchanged for the third consecutive time but refrained from wording suggesting an increase in the rate.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP is aiming for growth. Overview for 09.04.2024

The British pound, paired with the US dollar, maintains positive momentum. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2657.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that GBP gains appear relatively modest as the market still experiences pressure from the trajectory of the US dollar. The chances of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve have significantly decreased compared to the levels seen earlier in the year. Initially, investors expected six rate cuts but now only anticipate a maximum of three.

The latest comments from the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, indicating that the Fed is in no hurry to make essential decisions, were supported by data on prices and employment. The US economy is clearly in a more stable position than it appeared at the beginning of the year, which is positive news for the US and the US dollar but not for interest rate prospects.

The market has already factored in the Bank of England’s soft stance on interest rates and the declining inflation parameters in the UK. Core inflation in the UK is currently holding steady at 4.5%, significantly higher than the 2% inflation target, ruling out a scenario of rapid interest rate cuts.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY is under strong pressure. Overview for 10.04.2024

The Japanese yen remains in a weakened position against the US dollar. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 151.80.

Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda finally clarified the Japanese regulator's future actions. The monetary policymaker noted that the BoJ will not directly react to the yen's exchange rate fluctuations. In this way, the Bank of Japan refuted market speculations that a steep decline in the JPY may force it to raise interest rates rapidly.

Ueda stated that the BoJ will not change its monetary policy in response to exchange rate fluctuations. BoJ officials are confident that, while a weak yen will push up import prices, this alone will not lead to an increase in borrowing costs.

However, if the risk of a surge in wages emerges and inflation exceeds the 2% target, the Bank of Japan may need to consider revising its monetary boundaries.

In March, the yen dropped to a 34-year low against the US dollar and remains under significant pressure.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY hits new lows. Overview for 11.04.2024

The Japanese yen has dropped even deeper against the US dollar. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 152.98.

The yen collapsed under pressure from the US dollar after US treasury bond yields rose. This happened amid the publication of March inflation statistics, which completely inverted market expectations. Now, the market believes that the wide gap between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed will remain in force. This factor has the strongest impact on the JPY exchange rate.

Japanese authorities continue to hint at a possible intervention in currency fluctuations if exchange rate movements become excessive and disorderly, but this has long ceased to impress anyone.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance is perhaps considering the appropriate timing for any action. Yet for now, fiscal authorities continue to reiterate the same message day after day: "We are observing, monitoring, and ready for anything".

The government perfectly realises that factual intervention will only provide a short-term respite for the yen. That is why financial interventions have yet to occur.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR surrendered without a fight. Overview for 12.04.2024

The primary currency pair is sliding down on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0682.

The strengthening of the US dollar is associated with low expectations from the US Federal Reserve's interest rate for this year. In January, the market expected six interest rate cuts; in March, it expected three, while today, it only anticipates two. Such forecasts are due to the publication of robust US statistics that increase the inflationary component.

The European Central Bank's meeting concluded yesterday. The interest rates remained unchanged.

In the commentary, the ECB mentioned that it would be appropriate to lower the interest rate if the core inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy gave more confidence in the CPI nearing the target levels. The regulator mentions the possibility of easing monetary conditions in its accompanying statement for the first time.

In fact, from December to now, the ECB has gone from firm statements to soft remarks.

Some market participants have already begun anticipating aggressive ECB rate cuts in the upcoming months, but such forecasts are unlikely to be grounded.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR continues to decline. Overview for 15.04.2024

The primary currency pair is below the previous level on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0650.

The US dollar strengthened its position for two reasons. The Federal Reserve’s reactions to the US inflation data delayed the expected timing of a rate cut, pushing it back to September, and the Middle East conflict intensified.

Last week, EURUSD experienced the most significant weekly decline since 2022. US inflation figures were unambiguous: prices remain high. This situation made the Federal Reserve hesitant about its forthcoming decisions. Investors immediately shifted the likely date for an interest rate cut in this monetary cycle from June to September. It seems the Federal Reserve only has two rate cuts left for this year. For comparison, back in January, it was expected that there would be six.

The Middle East disputes are escalating to a new level, reducing risk appetite on the stock market and contributing to demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

Combined, all these factors have worked against the EURUSD, pushing the pair to its lowest value since 11 March.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP is too weak. Overview for 16.04.2024

The British pound, paired with the US dollar, attempted to recover but without success. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2437.

Yesterday’s release of US retail sales data reduced the pound’s ability to recover from its sharpest decline since June.

The UK will publish statistical data on the employment market on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. All these reports will be crucial for the Bank of England, which meticulously selects statistics for analysis. This week could significantly influence the BoE’s policy in the coming months.

Any surprises in the wages report could substantially impact the trajectory of the GBP.

Markets believe August could be when the British regulator decides to reduce the interest rate.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR halted. Overview for 17.04.2024

The primary currency pair paused its sell-off on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0624.

The market has grown weary of selling, particularly as the five-month lows have been updated repeatedly. Monetary policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were quite active yesterday, but the market has already factored in all their comments in the quotes.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated yesterday that the regulator hopes to receive more confident data on inflation stabilisation in the future. Investors interpreted his remarks literally, concluding that the Fed is not ready to cut interest rates in June and is shifting forecasts to September.

European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted the ECB's ability to adjust the pace of interest rate cuts if the Middle East conflict has a long-term impact on energy prices. The ECB is expected to make its first interest rate cut after the June meeting. Inflation in the region is confidently heading towards 2%. Market participants expect to see three rate cuts by the end of 2024.

While there is no contradiction between monetary policies, the market's reaction to Powell's remarks is evident: investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the absence of decisive action from the Fed on a global scale.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is recovering. Overview for 18.04.2024

The primary currency pair is rebounding on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0674.

The US dollar lost some strength as the market grew tired of worrying about shifting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Investors already know that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy settings will remain restrictive for some time. It is high time the EURUSD normalised.

The US dollar has recently surged as the released macroeconomic statistics confirmed the robust performance of the US economy, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate reduction in June. Additionally, the US dollar has been in demand as a safe-haven asset while the Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions.

Risk appetite is now recovering, and this is becoming more evident with the agreement among the US, Japan, and South Korea to consult on currency market issues.

Today, the market awaits weekly data on jobless claims in the US and the March report on existing home sales.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team