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Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

NZD is declining. Overview for 13.05.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6008.

The position of the US dollar has stabilised, once again exerting pressure on the NZD. The market focus is shifting to the US inflation statistics, which are scheduled for release this week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its meeting next week, with the interest rate expected to remain at 5.5% per annum. The RBNZ intends to maintain its restrictive monetary policy until there are more concrete indications that inflation is approaching the designated 2% target.

Overall, the RBNZ's position aligns with the global agenda: monitoring prices, recording economic slowdown facts, and keeping its finger on the pulse to intervene at the right moment.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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EURUSD reached equilibrium. Overview for 14.05.2024

The primary currency pair is consolidating on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0784.

The currency market is clearly conserving strength ahead of this week's release of the US consumer price index report, projected to provide much insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

According to the CME FedWatch monitor, the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the September meeting is 60%.

This week's attention is focused on the US consumer price index, scheduled for release this Wednesday. Core inflation in April is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, which is lower than the March value of 0.4% m/m. However, before that, on Tuesday, the US will publish the producer price index statistics for April. The market will meticulously analyse the data to understand how quickly inflation is approaching the 2% target.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD has reached a new five-week peak. Overview for 15.05.2024

The primary currency pair is advancing on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0822.

Upbeat comments from Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chair, regarding the state of the US economy weighed on the US dollar. He gave a relatively confident outlook on GDP growth rates. Powell believes that the economy is still growing more vigorously than the trend. Additionally, he is convinced that inflationary pressures will ease. Despite recent statistics that could challenge this confidence, Powell remains steadfast in his optimistic views.

This year, high consumer prices have prompted the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary policy trajectory, compelling it to abandon its monetary easing strategy to gather more data.

Investors anticipated six interest rate cuts in January, but now, only one is expected. According to the CME FedWatch monitor data, the interest rate may be lowered by a maximum of 45 basis points this year, with the first cut expected in September.

Today is crucial as the market awaits inflation and retail sales data for April.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY “revives”. Overview for 16.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, has significantly strengthened. The current exchange rate for USDJPY stands at 153.88.

The yen found support as the US dollar fell. Following the release of inflation data the previous day, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased markedly. Inflation in April slowed to 3.4% y/y from the earlier 3.5%, with the core CPI dropping to 3.6% y/y from 3.8%. This easing of inflationary pressure provides grounds for anticipating a greater potential for a Fed rate cut in September.

Consequently, the dollar retreated, enabling the yen to regain its position.

However, the morning’s GDP statistics for Japan failed to inspire confidence. The economy contracted by 2.0% year-on-year in Q1 2024, surpassing the expected 1.5% decline. The downturn was 0.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, higher than the projected -0.3%. The report shows that weak private consumption emerged as the primary driver behind the GDP fall, marking a decline for four consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, yen investors remained undeterred by the report, preoccupied with market corrections.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY is declining again. Overview for 17.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, is retreating at the end of the week. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.77.

Morning data showed that the Bank of Japan had kept the volume of bond purchases the same, refraining from taking action after reducing the volume earlier in the week.

Investors speculated that the Japanese regulator kept the amounts unchanged, believing that the JPY had already received support from the recent weakening of the US dollar. Meanwhile, traders continue to bet that the BoJ will decide to lower bond purchase parameters at its upcoming meeting.

It is worth noting Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda’s statement that the central bank has no plans to sell its assets.

This week’s statistics showed a slowdown in the Japanese economy. The country’s GDP in Q1 contracted by 2% y/y, falling short of expectations. Private consumption has declined for four consecutive quarters, dragging down the entire system.

Such a report presents significant challenges for the Bank of Japan, which must balance supporting the economic system and protecting the weak yen.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD is slightly higher. Overview for 20.05.2024

The primary currency pair looks lively on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0880.

This morning, the exchange rate touched 1.0895, marking a two-month peak tested last week.

The market will soon mainly focus on the core PCE data, a key inflation indicator used by the Federal Reserve to gauge price pressure. This data will be released on 31 May. The market believes that the Fed will not have all the necessary statistics for its next meeting and will, therefore, not make crucial decisions in June or July.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might use his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August to present his stance regarding the September meeting.

Investors will focus this week on the publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and the eurozone's current PMI data.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
GBP is rising higher. Overview for 21.05.2024

The British pound is strengthening its position against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2709.

The pound appears steady, supported by the local decline in the US dollar and comments from monetary policymakers. In his speech yesterday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent did not rule out a summer interest rate cut.

However, Broadbent provided no specific information indicating that this scenario is inevitable. Market expectations show the likelihood of lowering the interest rate to 5.00% from the current 5.25% at the next meeting in June.

The Bank of England continues to gather information and data on the state of the UK’s economic system. If the situation continues to develop in line with its forecasts, the bank rate will likely change.

On Wednesday, the UK will release inflation statistics, crucial for understanding the BoE’s future actions. According to the consensus forecast, the consumer price index decreased to 2.1% in April from 3.2% in March. The Bank of England’s CPI target is precisely 2.0%.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD activity has declined. Overview for 22.05.2024

The primary currency pair is hardly moving on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0853.

The US dollar appears stable as the currency market conserves strength ahead of tonight’s release of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes. Investors have already weighed calls for patience from some monetary policymakers and are now eager to compare these comments with the official documents.

With a scarcity of significant macroeconomic statistics scheduled for this week, the market has to depend on its own data and interpretations of current developments. The major currencies are moving within narrow ranges.

Meanwhile, forecasts for a stronger-than-expected interest rate cut are becoming more relevant following last week’s weak April inflation reports release.

The consensus forecast suggests the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 43 basis points this year. A week ago, this figure was 52 basis points.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
GBP is appreciating. Overview for 23.05.2024

The British pound sterling is still ascending against the US dollar. The current exchange rate for GBPUSD stands at 1.2727.

Yesterday's published statistics revealed a decrease in British inflation. On a year-on-year basis, the Consumer Price Index in April fell to 2.3% from the previous 3.2%. The forecast had anticipated a more significant decline to 2.1% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose by 0.3% compared to the previous 0.6%, once again defying expectations and not ruling out the 0.2% increase.

Investors' reaction to the inflation statistics was not positive. The data suggests that the Bank of England will maintain a wait-and-see stance for now, but by August, it may be ready to begin an easing cycle. These expectations are worse than before: prior to the release of statistics, the market had anticipated a cut in the BoE interest rate as early as June.

It is said on the market that the pound currently needs grounds to stand out among the G-10 currencies. The interest rate in the UK remains at 5.25% per annum. With it staying high, the pound is gaining on this front.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD shows no resistance. Overview for 24.05.2024

The primary currency pair continues to weaken at the end of the week. The current exchange rate for EURUSD stands at 1.0805.

May statistics showed that business activity in the US accelerated to the highest level in two years. The preliminary value of the Markit Services PMI increased to 54.8 points in May from 51.3 points previously, and the Manufacturing PMI in May rose to 50.9 points from 50.0 points.

At the same time, several manufacturers reported an increase in prices for a range of resources, providing one of the reasons for revising expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve interest rates. Such signals are pro-inflationary and are negative news for the Fed.

According to CME's FedWatch monitor, the timing for the Fed's first interest rate cut has now been pushed from November to December.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.08458
USD / JPY
152.724
GBP / USD
1.28721
USD / CHF
0.87809
USD / CAD
1.38415
EUR / JPY
165.641
AUD / USD
0.65198

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