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Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

GBP attempts to rise. Overview for 11.06.2024

The British pound sterling is trying to rise against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2736.

The pound has stabilised after hitting a new local low last week. The UK employment market data, industrial production, construction activity, and trade balance figures are due for release. The data are expected to confirm an economic slowdown in April.

The unemployment rate will likely remain at 4.30%, and average earnings are anticipated to increase by 5.70%.

At its next meeting on 20 June, the Bank of England will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per annum, its peak since 2008. UK inflation is clearly reducing, but not fast enough.

Additionally, there is some uncertainty about the country’s elections in early July, which may exert pressure on the pound.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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EURUSD declines. Overview for 12.06.2024

The primary currency pair is dropping lower on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0740.

Political instability in France is significantly impacting the euro. President Emmanuel Macron’s position has become shaky following the far-right party’s victory in the European Parliament elections. Rumours are circulating that Macron might also lose the forthcoming elections, which would jeopardise France’s financial stability. This factor is now adding to the euro’s imbalance.

The US Federal Reserve meeting is underway. The decision on the interest rate will be announced on Wednesday evening, and it is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25% per annum. The market is keen for fresh and relevant assessments of the economy and outlook.

The most crucial information the financial world awaits is the timing of the first easing of monetary conditions, with general forecasts currently referring to November.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD experienced significant volatility. Overview for 13.06.2024

The primary currency pair is looking for support after a turbulent rise on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0805.

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair faced a massive flow of data from both the US Federal Reserve and statistical reports. The Fed’s June meeting ended neutrally, with the interest rate remaining at 5.25% per annum, which was in line with expectations. However, the Federal Reserve’s comments, hinting at a rate cut this year closer to December, and the perceived aggressiveness of the Fed’s rhetoric regarding steps in 2025, have left the market in a state of anticipation for an active interest rate reduction.

The US Consumer Price Index dropped in May, exceeding forecasts. Inflation stood at 3.3% year-on-year, remaining flat on a month-to-month basis. Core inflation decreased to 3.4% year-on-year from the previous 3.6%. This development indicates the easing of price pressure, a positive signal for the economy and the Federal Reserve.

The market has become overly sensitive to statistical data releases. The US Federal Reserve created this foundation, having previously stated that it planned to gather as much data as possible to identify patterns.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY is under pressure. Overview for 14.06.2024

The Japanese yen is declining against the US dollar on Friday. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 157.85.

The Bank of Japan concluded its meeting, opting to maintain its current monetary policy structure, keeping the interest rate at zero. In its comments, the BoJ stated that it would maintain the parameters for purchasing Japanese government bonds at the levels agreed in March.

This disappointed investors who were expecting signals towards a reduction in bond purchases. Previously, the Governor of the Bank of Japan did not rule out a gradual reduction of its enormous balance sheet in the form of government bonds but did not specify any timelines.

In March 2024, the Bank of Japan tightened monetary policy for the first time in seven years, moving the interest rate from negative territory to zero.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
GBP continues to strengthen following a decline

The GBPUSD pair is strengthening its position following the release of the house price indices. It is likely to undergo a correction ahead of a further decline.

GBPUSD trading key points
  • The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (y/y) in June 2024 increased by 0.2%
  • The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (m/m) in June 2024 decreased by 0.2%
  • The GBPUSD targets: 1.2600, 1.2500
GBPUSD fundamental analysis

The UK released its year-on-year and month-on-month house price indices for June 2024 on Monday, 1 July 2024. The figure increased slightly by 0.2% year-on-year and declined by 0.2% month-on-month, which did not prevent the pound from strengthening against the US dollar.

The consumer and mortgage lending figures will also be published today. However, given their low importance, the data will not significantly impact the GBPUSD rate.

US manufacturing PMI data is due during the second half of the European trading session. While the forecast suggests growth, the actual data release will confirm this, which may exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY analysis: the yen continues to lose ground

The USDJPY pair continues its ascent, with no significant correction expected in the near term.

USDJPY trading key points
  • 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction – 1.091%
  • Japan’s monetary base (y/y) – 0.6%
  • USDJPY targets: 163.30, 158.90, 157.40
USDJPY fundamental analysis

The 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction did not help the yen. The USDJPY rate continues its ascent. Insignificant news does not rescue the yen from depreciation at this stage.

Japanese authorities’ actions are widely viewed as playing for a rival, with attempts to strengthen the yen ending with another increase in the USDJPY rate. Bulls are aggressive and seem to have a clear strategy – to make the most of the yen’s depreciation.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY is gaining momentum, with the US economy slowing

The USDJPY rate is declining ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report.

EURUSD trading key points
  • The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm US economic slowdown
  • The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September increased to 68% from 56%
  • Traders are awaiting the release of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report
USDJPY fundamental analysis

The US dollar declines on Thursday, influenced by weak economic indicators. Investors believe there is a gradual turn in the flow of US economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm economic slowdown and easing inflationary pressure. Market expectations about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose to 68% from 56% a week earlier.

Traders may adjust positions in anticipation of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, a key indicator for assessing the economy’s state. This may be the primary reason behind the USDJPY pair’s current decline.

Overall, investors continue to monitor the JPY closely, considering the possibility of a currency intervention by the Japanese government. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stated that the goal of a potential intervention will not be the yen rate but its excessive volatility. Current market conditions do not meet the criteria for Japanese authorities to intervene.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Gold (XAUUSD) is strengthening ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release

Gold price is steadily rising, with market participants focusing on today's US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

XAUUSD trading key points
  • Current trend: gold is steadily rising after reaching a daily resistance level at 2,368 USD
  • Market focus: today, market participants focus on US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate
  • Price dynamics: XAUUSD quotes are consolidating slightly below the 2,368 USD level during the European trading session
Fundamental analysis

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4%.

Following the release of US employment market statistics, volatility in XAUUSD quotes may surge. Depending on the upcoming data, they might continue their growth to new local highs or correct downwards following their previous rise.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Wage growth in Japan accelerates

The USDJPY rate is correcting on Monday amid the highest US employment rate since November 2021. The pair could not drop below the 160.20 support level.

USDJPY trading key points
  • Earnings in Japan reached their highest level since January
  • US job growth decreased to the lowest seen since November 2021
  • USDJPY price targets: 160.00, 159.30, and 158.70
Fundamental analysis

Earnings in Japan increased by 1.9% year-over-year in May 2024, marking the highest reading since January. However, the indicator is yet to catch up with inflation. As a result, real wages in the country continued to decrease for 26 consecutive months, preventing the BoJ from achieving the desired rise in prices and earnings and impeding the normalisation of monetary policy.

The revised Q3 data on US job growth may negatively impact the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. In June, the unemployment rate reached its highest level since November 2021. Traders expect the first Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in September, followed by further quarterly cuts to a final rate of 3.25-3.50%

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDCAD finds equilibrium, but the Canadian dollar remains strong

Investors in the USDCAD pair are assessing the latest statistics and forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s actions will determine further movements.

USDCAD trading key points
  • The market is considering Canada’s employment market statistics
  • The Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at every meeting until the end of 2024
  • USDCAD price targets: 1.3696, 1.3600, 1.3530, and 1.3473
Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar has stabilised against the US dollar after strengthening markedly in July. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.3635.

Investors were prompted to react to last week’s Canadian employment market statistics release. The unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 6.2% in June, with the economy losing approximately 1,400 jobs. Although this is not the largest possible loss, signs of economic weakness are increasing.

The USD’s depreciation also contributed to the previous drop in the USDCAD pair. The slowing US economy is causing widespread concern, intensifying the focus on interest rates. The likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut at its July meeting is estimated at 60%. If this occurs, it will mark the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, with markets anticipating a total reduction of 55 basis points by the end of the year.

If the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates again on 24 July, the market will likely interpret this as a signal for further cuts at each subsequent meeting unless unforeseen events happen.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.08515
USD / JPY
152.213
GBP / USD
1.28753
USD / CHF
0.87856
USD / CAD
1.38364
EUR / JPY
165.173
AUD / USD
0.65228

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