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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: If situation changes to the worse, Euro will subside below 1.28

At the Forex currency market the pair EUR/USD goes down this morning – traders’ concern regarding U.S. complex situation is receding and the USD is in demand again.

By 9:55 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2845 against yesterday’s closing session level of 1.2884.

If investors’ current sentiments sustains today, it is probable that the Euro will go down to 1.28.

The day is going to be quite in terms of macro-statistics. On Thursday and Friday traders will await the following U.S news release: number of unemployment benefit applications (decline to 478 thousand is expected) and manufacturing activity index in August which is expected to go up to 7 points.

In general there are no investment ideas at the market, neither for currency nor raw product.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.790-1.2940 on Wednesday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: NZD: Currency growth was interrupted due to the oil pullback, however prospects are positive

At the Forex currency market New Zealand Dollar rate was traded upward, however by this moment it went to the negative area, affected by the external background.

Short term trend for the pair NZD/USD is upward, medium term trend is shifting to ascending.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6825.

Resistance levels: 0.7180, 0.7355.
Interest rate is at the level of 3.0% per annum in New Zealand now. Two weeks ago the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the interest rate for the second time at a run – to 25 basis points, then an interval in the sequence of the rises was announced. “Cessation of the further monetary incentive measures is appropriate. The pace and scope of the further rate increases is likely to be more moderate than anticipated in the June statement”, said the Head of the Bank, Alan Bollard in his comment. He stressed that previous NZD growth runs counter to the plans to mitigate New Zealand economy prospects. “Growth in the economies of our trading partners proved to be better than we predicted, however outlooks have worsened. Although prices of the raw materials are still high, they has become more moderate”.
The data released earlier showed unexpected growth of unemployment rate in QII in New Zealand, therefore domestic demand in the country remains limited and economy does not receive additional support for the growth, as has been expected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Labour market growth in the country has apparently faced some difficulties, which the RBNZ passed over in silence while saying that pace of the interest rate increases will be moderate in the future. In this regard an interval in the chain of the interest rate increases can be quite long lasting.
As became known on Monday service sector in New Zealand continued to restore in July – however growth rate has slowed down, which can indicate complications in the sector, particularly for the small entrepreneurs. Thus the index has frozen at the level of 30.50 (in June: 55.1)
A conclusion drawn from the figures suggests that consumers try to spend money sparingly due to the uncertainty in the projections for the world economy as a whole and New Zealand economy is particular.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: AUD: Australian Dollar declines due to unfavourable statistics

At the Forex currency market this morning the Australian Dollar rate is losing ground affected by the statistics released today.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, however it is going down, giving ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal today.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9000, sellers’ targets will be the levels of 0.8960 and 0.8920.
The following Australian data was released today:
– Leading indicators index Westpac is unvaried on monthly basis in June (+6.0% y/y) against +0,3% m/m, +7,4% y/y in May;
– Index of coincident indicators Westpac is 3.8% on annual basis in June against +3.4% in May.
Economic growth rate is still high in general sense however it is obvious that the peak of the growth has been formed earlier.
It became known last week that growth of unemployment had resumed in Australia – number of unemployed in the country increased by 23 thousand in July, while previously the rate went up by 37.4 thousand. Unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.1%.
The minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in August, stated that GDP growth is expected to be above average in the next two years of 2011 and 1012; while core inflation level will amount to 2.75% in 2011 and in 3% in 2012. According to the document the Central Bank finds that current interest rate level is comfortable and will wait for the new data to analyze. RBA noted also that the inflation forecasts risks are both upward and downward, and expansion in the sector of natural resources will become the growth actuator.
Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia retained current interest rate at the previous level of 4.50% per annum. The main and official version –current level of the inflation decline cannot prevent from undertaking drastic measures to tighten monetary policy- and it is true in general: the last inflation report in Australia released on 28 July showed that net prices increased by 2.7% on annual basis in QII. The head of RBA Stevens is planning to hold inflation level in the range of 2-3%. He says that the core inflation is expected to be approximately in the center of the indicated range until mid- 2011, however CPI inflation can rebound above 3% due to the introduction of the tobacco and utilities taxes.
However global situation is far from being stable and smooth – and this is the second factor which put pressure on the RBA. According to Stevens forecast of the world economic recovery is still obscure, taking into account inflation factor and ambiguous prospects of the global capital markets.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: CHF: Swiss Franc is in demand again

At the Forex currency market on Wednesday Swiss Franc is traded upward, neutralizing the previous fall.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/CHF, however it is going down, giving ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.

Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets will be the levels of 1.0400 and 1.0360 today.
Economic situation remains almost unchanged in Switzerland. Interest rate of the Swiss National Bank is at the level of 25% currently as it was left untouched at the last SHNB meeting. Inflation forecast this year amounted to +0.9% (preliminary value: +0.7%), in 2011: +1.0% (preliminary value +0.9%), in 2012 – around +2.2%. Economists believe that there is no point to expect the interest rate increase in Switzerland earlier than the beginning of the next year.
The latest Swiss statistics (producer price index and imports prices in July: -0.5% m/m, +0.5% y/y; unemployment rate: 3.8% in July against the level of 3.9% earlier) seems to be mixed; intensified by the high level of volatility at Forex, it made Swiss Franc fluctuate.

Meanwhile the economist Fabia Hiller stressed last week that labour market improvement will be gradual and according to the forecast unemployment rate will amount to 3.9% in 2010 on average.

According to the data released earlier consumer activity indicator in Switzerland rose to 1.81 in June against the level of 1.71 a month earlier – UBS noted in the review that index growth was mainly actuated by the increase in the number of the registered cars. However business activity index in Switzerland is still not the most optimistic.

The next SHNB meeting will be held on 16 September. Market believes that even if the issue of the interest rate will be raised at the meeting, the discussion will be superficial: first of all aid package shall be developed to prevent second bottom of recession and the issue of the expensive Franc which impacts on Swiss economy is also a matter to be discussed.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: JPY: Yen continues to go up regardless of external background and statistics

Japanese Yen continues to grow at the Forex currency market on Wednesday: investors at the market are convinced that even if the Bank of Japan tries a shot at currency intervention, Yen will not become weaker.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY and it goes down, confirming a pair previous sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral area and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be 85.10 и 84.90.

The following Japanese data was released today:

– Leading indicators index in June: 99.0 against 98.6 in May;

– Index of coincident indicators in June: 101.3 against 101.2 in May.
Based on the released data it can be concluded that business conditions assessment is being restored following a dramatic collapse in May this year. The Japanese Cabinet stressed in the comments of Wednesday statistics that national economy state continues to improve.

The Bank of Japan representatives noted yesterday commenting JPY’s growth, that rise in price of JPY is a risk factor for the country’s economy however the last increase of the JPY did not cause much damage. If the growth of the Yen intensifies the Bank of Japan will be forced to assume measures. The market is convinced that possible interventions will not actually affect Yen rate.

Officials in Japan said today that additional measures to stimulate economy are not required so far as consumer spending supports the growth of economic system. Although spending on durable goods is almost unchanged, it is still at a high level which was also assessed as a positive factor. It became known on Monday that Japanese economy grew only by 0.4% on annual basis in QII, while growth by 2.3% was predicted. GDP rose by 4.4% in QI.

Poor results indicated in the report along with the fact that Japanese authorities cannot respond actively because of the huge national debts suggests that economic situation in the country of the rising sun is complicated.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 18.08.10: CAD: Canadian Dollar is growing; investors’ sympathies are changeable

Canadian Dollar continues to go up in pairing with the USD for the second consecutive session at the Forex currency market ignoring even instable situation in the oil sector.
Short term trend for the pair USD/CAD is downward, medium trend is downward as well.
Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0250.
Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0585.
It became known earlier that stock index in the industrial sector in Canada increased by 0.7% in June, while index of new orders in the same sector reduced by 0.3% in June.
Procurement in the industrial sector rose by 0.1%; purchase of foreign securities by Canadian investors went up to 4.01 billion CAD.
This week Canadian statistics calendar is uneventful. Consumer price index for July which is scheduled to be released on Friday will be of interest. Current situation for the pair USD/CAD is mixed, as investors’ sentiments can change any moment. Proximity of the U.S., where economic recovery rate is slowing down, impact on Canada.
Labour market statistics leaves much to be desired. Jobs decreased by 9.3 thousand in July against the forecast of growth by 14 thousand. Unemployment rate in the country increased to 8.0% against the previous value of 7.9%.

Apparently Canadian employers overplayed their hand a month ago: employment rate in June amounted to 93.2 thousand – now companies fire employees, to play safe.

In June the Bank of Canada announced a decision to raise interest rate to 0.75% per annum which was the second consecutive rate increase. In spite of positive development, the last comments of the Bank’s representatives poured cold water on those who were interested in buying CAD. The Bank noted that the world economy recovery is still in progress; however it is slow and constraint. Bank’s representatives also stressed that further interest rate increase will be carried out with extreme prudence based on the progress in both Canadian and world economy. Most likely by such comment the Bank ensured that they have wiggle room left, not implying that the interest rate increase is impossible in the foreseeable future. The Bank of Canada expects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.5% this year; while the growth forecast in April was by 3.7%. Growth forecast for 2011 was reduced to 2.9% from 3.1%.

The next meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held on 8 September.

 

[jiwo kacau]

analisis pound please :">

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 19.08.10: Euro is still under pressure; investors have no trading ideas

At the Forex currency market on Thursday morning the pair EUR/USD is traded downward – investors are waiting for the U.S. statistics release in the afternoon today which is expected to be positive.
By 9:50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2809 against the closing session level of 1.2853 yesterday.
By 16.30 Moscow time the data will be released on the U.S. number of unemployment benefit applications which is expected to decline last week. By 18.00 Moscow time Conference Board index of leading indicators will be known, which, most likely, increased in July by 0.1%.
It is possible in general that the pair EUR/USD will be traded close to the yesterday’s level – market has no trading ideas so far.
Most likely the EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.2780-1.2900 on Thursday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 19.08.10: NZD: New Zealand Dollar continues to grow; prospects are positive

New Zealand Dollar on Thursday continues to grow, supported by the external background and domestic news.

Short term trend seems to be trades in range, medium term trend is ascending.

The following New Zealand data was released today:

– Producer prices at the beginning of QII: +1.4% (QI +1.3%);

– Producer prices at the end of QII: +1.1% (+1.8% in QI).

The head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Mr. Bollard noted today that GDP growth will continue in the future however economic recovery process has been gradual. Bollard also stated that inflationary pressure will intensify in the nearest future. Interest rate is at the level of 3.0% per annum in New Zealand now. Two weeks ago the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the interest rate for the second time at a run – to 25 basis points, then an interval in the sequence of the rises was announced. “Cessation of the further monetary incentive measures is appropriate. The pace and scope of the further rate increases is likely to be more moderate than anticipated in the June statement”, said the Head of the Bank, Alan Bollard in his comment. He stressed that previous NZD growth runs counter to the plans to mitigate New Zealand economy prospects. “Growth in the economies of our trading partners proved to be better than we predicted, however outlooks have worsened. Although prices for the raw materials are still high, they have become more moderate”.
The data released earlier showed unexpected growth of unemployment rate in QII in New Zealand, therefore domestic demand in the country remains limited and economy does not receive additional support for the growth, as has been expected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Labour market growth in the country has apparently faced some difficulties, which the RBNZ passed over in silence while saying that pace of the interest rate increases will be moderate in the future. In this regard an interval in the chain of the interest rate increases can be quite long lasting.
Worth noting that according to the data released earlier (activity in the service sector in New Zealand in July: 30.50 (in June: 55.1). Consumers hold the purse strings due to the uncertainty in the projections for the world economy as a whole and New Zealand economy is particular.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 19.08.10: JPY: Yen retreats under the USD pressure and authorities comments

At the Forex currency market on Thursday morning Japanese Yen is traded downward – government’s comments today were negative for the expensive Yen which led to the pair USD/JPY subsidence.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY, however it is going up on Thursday, giving ground for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has not formed a clear signal today.

Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 85.90 and 86.40.

Finance Minister of Japan Noda noted this morning that authorities keep watch over markets financial activity and monitor Yen’s behavior as the uncontrolled growth of Yen can lead to the introduction of additional incentives.

Japanese economy is still vulnerable to the expensive Yen and Noda stressed that he will continue to monitor Forex.

The Bank of Japan representatives noted commenting growth of JPY that rise in price of JPY is a risk factor for the country’s economy however the last increase of the JPY did not cause much damage. If the growth of the Yen intensifies the Bank of Japan will be forced to assume measures. The market is convinced that possible interventions will not actually affect Yen rate.

Officials in Japan said today that additional measures to stimulate economy are not required so far as consumer spending supports the growth of economic system. Although spending on durable goods is almost unchanged, it is still at a high level which was also assessed as a positive factor.

It became known on Monday that Japanese economy grew only by 0.4% on annual basis in QII, while growth by 2.3% had been predicted. GDP rose by 4.4% in QI.

Poor results indicated in the report along with the fact that Japanese authorities cannot respond actively because of the huge national debts suggests that economic situation in the country of the rising sun is complicated.