Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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USD/JPY consolidates with a slightly bullish bias

Over the past week, the safe-haven USD/JPY pair has traded range-bound between 157.200 and 158.500. This movement has been driven by the continued rise in US Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy. On October 8, USD/JPY formed a short-bodied bearish candle with wicks at both the top and bottom; prices ranged from a low of 157.528 to a high of 158.366, closing at 157.891 on the FXOpen chart.

Strong USD is supported by solid 10-year US Treasury yields. Expectations that Federal Reserve interest rates will remain elevated are prompting capital to flow back into dollar-denominated assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, while the DXY hovered around 102.4. FOMC minutes also revealed that a majority of members see the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year.

US data releases today are relatively light. Markets will be closely watching the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations. Of greater importance are movements in Treasury yields; if yields rise above 5.35%, USD/JPY could see upward momentum, whereas a decline in yields could open the door for a correction.

The BoJ appears inclined toward caution. Following a rate hike to 1.25% at the September meeting, signals from within the BoJ ahead of the late-October meeting suggest reluctance to aggressively raise rates again. Market concerns regarding a slowdown in the pace of BoJ policy tightening are weighing on the Yen. The BoJ has noted that inflationary pressures are broadening, and Governor Ueda has emphasized the importance of keeping inflation near the 2% target.

Japanese household spending data due today is also drawing market attention. Consensus forecasts suggest a year-on-year (YoY) figure of around -3.5%, compared to the previous -3.6%. Stronger data could bolster the JPY by reinforcing the belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still has grounds for an interest rate hike. A key factor to watch is the possibility of foreign exchange intervention. With USD/JPY trading in the 158–160 range, the yen is already weak, and the Japanese government has previously affirmed that the principle of coordination with the US regarding FX intervention remains in effect.

Should strong comments emerge from Japan's Ministry of Finance or BoJ officials, USD/JPY could drop rapidly, even amidst strong US fundamentals. Remarks or rumors from BoJ officials leading up to the October 29–30 monetary policy meeting could determine the direction of the USD/JPY trend.

Technically, USD/JPY is trading below the 200-day EMA with an RSI of 51; chasing buy positions at high levels is less than ideal given the strength of US yields and the dollar, alongside the risks of intervention and a potential hawkish shift by the BoJ. The projected daily range for USD/JPY is 157.500–158.500, with an extreme range of 156.800–159.000. Immediate support lies around 157.550, with the next target at 156.800. Immediate resistance is around 158.500, with the next target at 158.800. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/JPY D1

On the daily chart, USDJPY is trading above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, indicating a decrease in volatility.

The MA50 sits just above the middle band, tracing a downward channel; the price's position on the line indicates sideways movement. The MA200 lies above the MA50, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over a longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 62 and the VB Low reads 28; the 34-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 45 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 52 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 54 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDJPY H4

On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is trading near the lower band. A Bollinger Band squeeze reflects a sideways market and low volatility.

The MA50 sits right at the lower band, tracing a flat channel; the price's position on the line indicates sideways movement. The MA200 lies below the lower band, tracing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 59 and the VB Low reads 46; the 13-point spread reflects the 4-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 52 with a flat channel, implying that bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 44 with a downward channel, indicating a trend with a bearish bias.

The Trade Signal Line reads 49 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY leans bearish with potential for consolidation

Price action in the EUR/JPY cross last week was confined to a narrow range with a slight bearish bias. On Friday, October 9, EUR/JPY formed a "hammer" pattern—with a high of 177.868, a low of 176.719, and a close of 177.103—according to FXOpen charts.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in approximately 31 years. Broadening inflation in Japan reinforces the likelihood of further policy tightening. If expectations for rate hikes rise, the yen could exert downward pressure on the euro. However, domestic political uncertainty and expectations of a slower pace of rate hikes have prevented the JPY from strengthening sharply.

The interest rate differential between the Eurozone and Japan still favors the euro, providing structural "carry trade" support that prevents EUR/JPY from falling too steeply.

Japan has previously intervened heavily to prop up the yen. The threat of renewed intervention could trigger a rapid appreciation of the yen, particularly if it weakens sharply.

The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% in September. However, ECB officials have recently signaled no rush to raise rates further. An economic slowdown in the Eurozone limits the ECB's scope to adopt a hawkish stance, thereby capping the euro's potential gains against other currencies.

As a "risk-on" currency, the euro's performance is also influenced by global equity market stability and geopolitical dynamics.

Traders are closely monitoring risk-on versus risk-off sentiment. If global stock markets rally, EUR/JPY tends to rise. Conversely, if panic or a downturn hits global stock markets, the Japanese yen becomes more attractive as a safe-haven currency, potentially pushing EUR/JPY lower.

The market also remains wary of sharp movements in the JPY. Hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials regarding future interest rates could trigger a sharp reversal in EURJPY.

Bond yield trends are also a key focus—specifically the spread between 10-year German bonds (Bunds) and 10-year Japanese bonds (JGBs). A widening yield spread could support a rise in EURJPY.

Today, October 12, is Sports Day. Domestic market activity in Japan is reduced, which may lead to thinner liquidity and potentially erratic price movements. An ECB Vice President is scheduled to speak today; traders will be closely watching for statements regarding inflation and potential interest rate changes. Pressure on French bonds could weigh on sentiment toward the euro.

From a technical perspective, EURJPY is trading below the 200-day EMA, with the RSI at the 33 level. EURJPY is expected to trade within the 176.000–178.000 range. Immediate support lies around 176.500, with the next target at approximately 176.000. Immediate resistance is around 177.800, with the next target at approximately 178.000. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

EURJPY's daily movement is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are tending to widen slightly, indicating a slight increase in volatility.

The MA50 sits just above the upper band, tracing a downward channel; the price is well below this line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 is far above the upper band, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 54 and the VB Low reads 19; the 25-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 37 with a downward channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 33 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 32 with a flat channel, indicating a tendency toward sideways movement.

EURJPY H4

On the four-hour chart, EURJPY is below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are tracing a flat channel with slightly narrowing spacing, indicating range-bound movement and decreased volatility.

The MA50 is above the middle band, tracing a downward channel; the price is below the line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 is far above the upper band, tracing a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 54 and the VB Low reads 35; the 19-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 48 with a downward channel, indicating a trend tending toward the downside.

The Trade Signal Line reads 47 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

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USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias driven by monetary policy divergence

The Canadian dollar tended to weaken against the USD on Monday. The USD/CAD pair formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a lower wick; according to the FXOpen chart, the price recorded a high of 1.42876, a low of 1.42399, and a close of 1.42831. However, price action has remained range-bound between 1.42000 and 1.42980 for six days. A successful breakout could see USD/CAD rise further.

Overall, fundamental sentiment continues to favor USD/CAD strength, maintaining a bullish bias driven by the monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The BoC's interest rate stands at 2.25% following its September decision, while the Fed's rate is in the 3.75%–4.00% range after a hike on September 16. This interest rate differential of approximately 1.50–1.75 basis points attracts capital flows toward the USD due to higher yields compared to the CAD.

Weakening Canadian labor market data and slowing domestic economic growth reinforce expectations that the BoC will maintain a dovish stance. Interest rates that are lower than the Fed's tend to put downward pressure on the CAD.

Meanwhile, the Fed remains more hawkish. Although US consumer sentiment data dipped slightly—limiting a sharp rally—the potential for further rate hikes and the Fed's "higher-for-longer" stance keep US bond yield premiums elevated.

The US dollar hovered near an 18-month high on October 12. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have boosted demand for safe-haven assets, including the USD. However, the market remains cautious ahead of the US inflation report scheduled for October 14, which could shift market direction. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to the 102.607 level, its highest point since June 2025.

As a commodity currency, the CAD is influenced by oil prices, given Canada's reliance on oil exports. Brent crude reportedly climbed to around US$106.80 per barrel on October 12 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Generally, high oil prices can support the CAD by boosting Canada's export revenue outlook, potentially curbing further gains in the USDCAD pair.

Technically, USDCAD is trading above the 200-day EMA. However, the pair faces the risk of a technical correction as the upward momentum shows signs of exhaustion. At the same time, further gains remain possible; buying at current high levels carries the risk of a pullback. The projected price range for USDCAD is 1.42500–1.43800. Immediate support lies around 1.42000, with the next target at approximately 1.41500. Immediate resistance is near 1.42850, with the next target around 1.43800. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD's daily movement is currently below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The MA50, above the lower band, forms a slight upward channel; the price remaining well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, below the lower band, also forms a slight upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 84 and the VB Low reads 36; the 48-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 60 with an upward slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 71 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend within the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 71 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD's four-hour movement is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and relatively low volatility.

The MA50, below the middle band, forms a flat channel; the price remaining above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, well below the lower band, forms an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 64, and the VB Low reads 43; the difference of 21 reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with a flat slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 59 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD recovers as the US dollar declines

The New Zealand dollar—a commodity currency—has tended to trade within a range over the past seven days. On October 13, the NZD/USD pair recovered, forming a bullish candle on the FXOpen chart with a low of 0.55795, a high of 0.56181, and a close of 0.56127.

Supporting the bullish bias for NZD/USD. The US dollar fell slightly as US bond yields eased. Market expectations for a less hawkish policy stance have dampened upward momentum for the USD. However, the US dollar index (DXY) remains generally strong, currently hovering around the 102.209 level.

Prior to this, the NZD/USD pair had undergone a significant decline and reached a solid support zone, triggering a technical rebound. Interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the RBNZ also provided a foundation for the Kiwi (NZD) to strengthen from oversold levels. The RBNZ raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 7, 2026. Annual inflation reached 4.1% in the June quarter, exceeding the 1–3% target range; this supports the NZD if the market anticipates further rate hikes.

Nevertheless, US interest rates remain higher than New Zealand's, giving the USD a yield advantage. Even so, the US dollar weakened on October 13, with the DXY falling 0.37% to 102.18.

Factors supporting a bearish outlook include concerns over New Zealand's high government budget deficit and uncertainty regarding the domestic fiscal outlook, which leave the NZD vulnerable to sudden sell-offs. The NZD is highly sensitive to global equity market dynamics; should risk aversion take hold in global stock markets, the NZD could face renewed downward pressure against the USD. Traders will be closely monitoring US inflation and retail sales data releases this week. Data exceeding expectations could strengthen the USD, whereas weaker figures might weigh on the currency, potentially driving a rally in the NZD/USD pair.

Movements in global stock indices—such as the S&P 500—and the prices of New Zealand's export commodities will also be key factors. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding the direction of interest rate policy could act as a catalyst for NZD/USD price action.

Technically, the NZD/USD pair is trading below the 200-day EMA. The RSI stands at 34, having moved out of oversold territory. The price range is projected to be between 0.55800 and 0.56400. Immediate support lies near 0.55800, with the next target around 0.55000. Immediate resistance is near 0.56400, with the next target around 0.56950. This forecast could be wrong.

NZD/USD D1

NZDUSD's daily movement is below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a downward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The MA50 sits above the upper band, forming a downward-curving channel; the price is well below this line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 is above the MA50 and forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 51, and VB Low reads 17; the 34-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 34 with a downward-sloping channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 31 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an upward trend moving away from oversold levels.

The Trade Signal Line reads 28 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an upward trend.

NZDUSD H4

In the four-hour, NZDUSD movement is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and moderate volatility.

The MA50 is near the middle band, forming a gently sloping downward channel; the price is just above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The MA200 is well above the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 57, and VB Low reads 38; the 19-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 48 with a slight upward slope, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight, though there is upside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 53 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 50 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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Gold prices fall as US inflation is higher than expected

Gold prices saw a sharp decline on Wednesday. The FXOpen chart shows the price forming a bearish candle, with a high of 4170, a low of 4073, and a close at 4097. Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates, movements in the DXY (US Dollar Index), US bond yields, and demand for safe-haven assets.

Recent US inflation data came in higher than expected. US CPI inflation rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year in September. Core inflation increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. These figures reinforce expectations that the Fed might raise interest rates again, thereby supporting a stronger US dollar.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, strengthened following the CPI release, while US bond yields also rose. This combination increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. The US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly surged to 102.945 before correcting to 102.539.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have the potential to boost demand for safe-haven assets, which supports gold. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices could drive demand; however, if rising oil prices exacerbate concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, the short-term impact on gold could be negative.

Today, the market awaits key US economic data: the PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims. If PPI and retail sales figures are stronger than expected, the US dollar and bond yields could strengthen, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if the data is weaker, gold could rebound, though the market reaction will depend on the overall data and prevailing market expectations.

From a technical perspective, the gold price is currently trading well below the 200-day EMA. The RSI indicator is at the 38 level. Gold prices are expected to trade within the $4,000–$4,226 range. Immediate support is around $4,066, with the next target near $4,000. Immediate resistance is around $4,188, with the next target near $4,226. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

Daily gold price movement is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating strong bearish sentiment.

The MA50 sits below the upper band, forming an ascending channel; the price is well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 is above the upper band, forming a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 53, and VB Low reads 35. The 18-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with a descending channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 40 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 40 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

On the four-hour timeframe, the gold price is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding—indicating increased volatility—with a wide spread.

The MA50 is below the middle band, forming a descending channel; the price is well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 is far above the upper band, forming a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 65, and VB Low reads 33. The 32-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 49 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 33 with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 39 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY approaches a psychological resistance area

Throughout October, the GBP/JPY cross-currency pair has traded within a range-bound scope of 207.000–210.000. Yesterday, the pair moved higher, forming a bullish candle after dipping toward the 208.360 level. On the FXOpen chart, the pair printed a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows, reaching a low of 208.584 and a high of 209.951, before closing at 209.848.

Recent data has been supportive of the GBP; UK GDP showed 0.1% growth, outperforming forecasts of a 0.1% contraction. Industrial and manufacturing production also came in stronger than expected. With inflation remaining at 3.1%, expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike to 4.00% in November have increased. The resilience of the UK’s macroeconomic data, combined with fiscal discipline, has provided support for the Pound Sterling.

The BoE is inclined to maintain interest rates at a relatively high level compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which continues to provide support via the interest rate differential. The BoE Governor is scheduled to speak today, October 16. The market will be watching closely to see whether his comments reinforce the likelihood of a rate hike or suggest that the BoE is not yet committed to a prolonged series of increases. A more hawkish tone would likely support the GBP.

Meanwhile, Japan’s recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in weaker than anticipated. Signals from BoJ officials suggest that the central bank is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its October 20, 2026 meeting, with any further hikes not expected to be considered until December. The expectation that the BoJ will pause rate hikes this month continues to exert downward pressure on the Yen.

BoJ official Junko Koeda has cautioned the central bank to exercise care when raising interest rates. Japanese interest rates have reached 1.25%, and the possibility of further tightening is a key focus ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting at the end of October.

Important factors for traders of the GBP/JPY pair to consider include a speech by Andrew Bailey, the potential for a BoJ rate hike, the risk of yen intervention, global risk sentiment, and trader positioning heading into the weekend.

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY is trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA200), with the RSI at 49. The pair is expected to trade within a reasonable range of 208.000–211.000. Immediate support lies near 209.000, with a subsequent target around 208.200. Immediate resistance is near 210.200, with a subsequent target around 211.200. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

The daily movement of GBPJPY is currently situated between the middle and upper Bollinger bands. The Bollinger bands form a flat channel with slightly contracted spacing, indicating sideways movement and relatively low volatility.

The MA50, above the upper Bollinger band, forms a downward-sloping channel; the price is well below this line, signaling a downtrend. The MA200, above the MA50, forms a relatively flat channel, suggesting a sideways sentiment over a longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator’s VB High is at 52, and the VB Low is at 24. The 28-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line is at 38 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is at 49, with its channel curving upward, suggesting an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47, with an upward-sloping channel, also indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the four-hour (H4) timeframe, the price of GBPJPY is above the middle Bollinger band. The Bollinger bands form a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating sideways movement accompanied by relatively high volatility.

The MA50, below the middle Bollinger band, forms a flat channel; the price is above this line, signaling a weak uptrend. The MA200, above the middle Bollinger band, forms a downward-sloping channel, indicating a bearish sentiment over a longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator’s VB High is at 63, and the VB Low is at 42. The 21-point difference reflects the four-hour volatility level.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, meaning that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line is at 54, with its channel curving downward, suggesting a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 49, with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.