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[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen steps back after reaching new highs

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is getting weaker today after reaching the highs at 80.57.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.00 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.10 and 81.40. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished this week, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar grows steadily on Thursday

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate grows steadily on Thursday supported by statistics.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area, maintaining a sell signal, while volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0390 the pair will go back to 1.0400 and 1.0430.

It became known today that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

This statistics has become a sort of trial of firmness for the market: it is interesting to know whether expectations of decrease in the interest rate will be revised in the next meeting of the RBA or not.

We would remind that the head of RBA Mr. Stevens did not exclude that some actions in regards to monetary policy will be taken in case if decline in economic growth will slow down inflation and spurs unemployment.

Statistics released in the middle of the week demonstrated that consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar rate is strengthening for the second day in a row

Positions of the New Zealand Dollar continue to strengthen at the FOrex currency market due to renewed interest to high yielding currencies and to risk in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8220 the pair will go to 0.8230 and 0.8250.

According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

In addition, representative of the Bank of New Zealand Mr. Inglish noted on Thursday that positions of the NZD look quite strong.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data keeps the NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

The Reserve Bank kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% in March, as expected. RBNZ noted in comments that there was no reason to revise interest rate currently.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro is pondering over Chinese statistics

The pair EUR/USD goes down slightly at the Forex currency market due to mixed Chinese statistics.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3170 against yesterday’s closing level of 1.3185.

Rally in Euro/USD took place last night when representatives of the U.S. Federal reserve emphasized that American economy is recovering steadily. This surge of optimism has smoothed over the effect from weak statistics on the U.S. labour market.

Block of Chinese statistics was released today and market is estimating the data at the moment.

Thus, the players will make use of Chinese statistics today.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will be not go beyond the range of 1.3100-1.3200 at the trading session on Friday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound has slowed down growth rate

At the Forex currency market the British Pound rate traded downward at the end of the week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5940 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.5970. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Situation in Great Britain has not changed significantly this morning; however the Pound reacts to changes in the investors’ sentiments at the world capital markets, meanwhile investors are estimating statistics from China which was made known this morning.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. Increasing unemployment and high oil prices can affect the rise in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of –stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc is getting weaker on Friday

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is getting weaker at the end of the week, amid unstable external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9130 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9140 and 0.9150. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation has not changed much for Swiss Franc; however influence of the external background is not excluded.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected.

Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB’s view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

Despite strong determination of SNB to protect the level of 1.20, a talk about chances of shifting level of pegging Franc to the Euro at 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank said this week that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets’ attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen retreats slowly

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate goes down at trades today, it is obvious that sales are not active for JPY.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone and has begun to shape a buy signal

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.95 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.00 and 81.30. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Situation in Japan is quite today and attention in the market is focused on the Chinese statistics.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished this week, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar failed to stay in ascending channel

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate goes down on Friday after yesterday’s growth. Mixed Chinese statistics released today had chilling effect on buyers.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has shifted into sideways movement in the negative area, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone; however this signal is fading away.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0360 the pair will go back to 1.0350 and 1.0330.

Statistics from China showed decline in GDP in Q1; this information has a negative effect on the AUD investors; Australian economy has strong links with Chinese economy and slowdown in the progress of China negatively affects economy of Green Continent.

It became known yesterday that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%. This statistics has become a trial of stability for the market: it is interesting to know whether expectations of decline in the interest rate will be revised in the next meeting of the RBA or not.

We would remind that head of RBA Mr. Stevens did not exclude that some actions in monetary policy will be taken in case if decline in economic growth slows down inflation and spurs unemployment.

Statistics released in the middle of the week demonstrated that consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro is on sale again

The pair EUR/USD traded downward at the Forex currency market on Monday morning.

By 8.45 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3021 against closing level of 1.3076 on Friday.

At the end of the week, investors reacted to statistics on American inflation which rose in March as per the forecast. However, this morning external background is negative: on the one hand, there was news about unrest in Kabul, on the other hand, safari of the king of Spain raised a storm of protest among people.

Spain is going to participate in the lending market again, placing treasury bonds. The yield of the securities is already rising, which indicates high level of risk.

This afternoon, investors will wait for statistics on the U.S. retail sales.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2980-1.3090 at the beginning of the week.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound moves away from risks

The British Pound Sterling traded downward at the Forex currency market on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it stopped decline and has shifted into sideways movement not giving a clear signal, while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.583, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5820 and 1.5790. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Statistics released this morning showed that house price index Rightmove in the UK rose by 2.9% m/m (+3.4% y/y) in April. The Pound has not responded to this statistics and continues to watch over external background where risk aversion is still preserved due to unfavourable environment.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of –stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal-at the peaks since March last year.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.