LiteForex's analytics

[royan]

EUR/USD: Euro strengthen sat the beginning of the week

The pair EUR/USD goes up at the trading session on Tuesday as positive statistics from Eurozone has produced an effect on the Forex currency market.

Trades on Monday closed at the level of 1.3220 versus starting level at 1.3140.

The data on Eurozone released yesterday has become the reason forenthusiasm: balance of payment surplus of ECB increased for the reporting period amounting to 4.5 billion euro against 3.3 billion euro. Earlier we were able to observe attempt to release tension over the major acute issue- European debt problem. Market received grounds to start purchases due to the statementof the Greek Prime Minister about resuming growth of GDP in less than two years period, while new re-structure of the debt will not be required.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3230-1.3310 at the trading session on Tuesday.

 

[royan]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar continues to grow

At the Forexcurrency market the New Zealand Dollar rate continued to be traded upward onMonday, reflecting improvements in market environment. Quotes will finally gainthe foothold above oversold resistance level at 0.8270.on Tuesday

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair NZD/USD is regaining in the positive area and is readyto break through the signal line from top to bottom giving a weak sell signal.Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendationsff the market: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8260 the pair will go to0.8270 and 0.8290. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Statisticsreleased last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of NewZealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported the currency.

According to thedata released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for thereporting period against previous decline of 3.4%.

Index of businessactivity BNZ in the service sector rose to 53.6 points in January againstpreliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has beenrecorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companieshave become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007.

Situation in NewZealand seems stable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bears the most influence on NZD.

Earlier ReserveBank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% asexpected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interestrate at the moment.

House price indexREINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectationsof decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q42011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive andindicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for theeconomy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Activity index inthe service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into theprice. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against theforecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y)against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

 

[royan]

AUD: Australian Dollar has reached resistance at 1.0640

At the Forexcurrency market the Australian Dollar rate has reached monetary target at thelevel of 1.0640. All attention will be focused on this level: if it will bepreserved there will be new sales in the pair; if this level is exceeded, thepair will go to 1.0685. The identified levels are oversold basis on the movingaverage indicator Ichimoku.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, it has come through thesignal line from top to bottom and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up, pushing away from oversold zone and is shaping a buysignal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640 the pair will go to 1.0665 and1.0685.

It became knownyesterday that inflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% inMarch against the level of 2.8% in February.

Earlier, AustralianDollar rate has to cope with weak data on Chinese economy which was belowexpectations; it concerns the levels of export and the size of foreign tradedeficit in particular. China has been one of the main trading partners ofAustralia; therefore the AUD reacts strongly to statistics from this country.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in thecountry against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail salesfell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.

Statisticsreleased earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in Januaryagainst 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecastof growth of 5 thousand.

Such data cancause the revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.

According to therecent release of Australian National Association of Retailers, growth ofinternet sales has become a catalyst for decline in employment sector in theretail trade sector. Forecast of the Association shows that by 2015 retailsales sector will lose half of jobs: it will happen if government does notabolish taxes for companies in this sector and if government does not supportabolishment of import duties on goods purchase.

According tostatistics of the Association, internet sales amounted to 4% of total sales in2011; the index can rise to 9.5% by 2015.

Meeting of ARBlast week has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policy unchanged.

 

[royan]

CHF: Swiss Franc continues to grow against USD on Tuesday

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc ratedemonstrates increase at the beginning of the week due to stable externalbackground and investors’ positive sentiments.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes up inthe negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has comeout of the overbought zone and is also giving a sell signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070и 0.9050. Consolidation close to the current levels ispossible.

Marco-economicsituation in Switzerland is stable on the Tuesday morning.

Last year interventionscost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commentingthis information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effecton the market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year.

Trade balanceamounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50billion francs. The report demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary expectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by3.6% (preliminary forecast was +7.6%m/m).

Three- month Liborrate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNBviews on monetary policy remained unchanged, except for the economic forecast.

The regulator expects that inflation in2012-2014 will be from 0.6% tо +0.6%, GDP growthwill be of 1.0% this year.

GDP in the countryrose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1%y/y). This is good data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used toexpensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however itdemonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increasedto 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statisticsreleased on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in Januaryagainst the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.

Inflation fell by 0.4%m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. Thishas been the fourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall sinceOctober 2009.

According tostatistics released yesterday unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4%in February-with no change.

 

[royan]

GBP: British Pound tends to test the level of 1.5930

At the Forex currencymarket the pair GBP/USD has increased at the closing session on Monday amid thesurge of market enthusiasm and overall weakening in the American currency.

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it has shifted tosideways movement, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator isgrowing in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at 1.5930, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. The specified narrow range bearsstrong resistance for pair’s quotes, at the same time long-term trend is stillupward.

The data on thebalance of foreign trade was better than that in December.

However, the Pound’s goodspirits were spoiled at the end of the week by the other data: volume of productionin the construction sector fell by 2.3% y/y in January; volume of industrialoutput declined by 0.4% m/m (-3.8%y/y).

Index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP was at thelevel of -29 points. House prices index Hometrack remained unchanged in onmonthly basis in February (-1.4% y/y).

Estimates of GFKNOPand that of the Bank of England showed that annual inflation expectationsamounted to 3.5% in February versus estimate of 4.1% in November.

Representative of theBank of England Mr. Broadbent noted last week, that he did not supportabolition of the economic stimulus program in the short term. He believes thatscrapping of the stimulus program could well grounded later but only ifdramatic improvement will be made in the lending and financing sector.

Representative of theBank of England Mr. Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continueto decline, and this will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs andreserve capacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promotethe rise in assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult toassess the impact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were notfor QE, domestic demand would have been significantly affected.

Mr.Wealenoted earlier that the rates could be raised before the regulator would rollback stimulus measures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitudeto inflation for the sake of economic stimulus is a good idea.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, numberof unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector preventseconomic recovery of the country in general.

A meeting of the Bankof England which was held last Thursday demonstrated that a split of opinionsin MPC is still preserved. Interest rate was left unchanged at the level of0.5% per annum as well as the volume of QE. The program of assets repurchase QEwas increased by 50 billion pounds in February to the level of 325 billion pounds.

 

[royan]

USD slightly decreased in pairing with ROUBLE

At the trading session in the currency section of the MICEX, the RussianRouble rate maintains its positions in pairing withthe USD due to mixed sentiments of investors at the world capital market.Trades on Tuesday started with slight decrease of the USD against the Roubleand general strengthening of the Euro at Forex.

The trading session for the USD ыефкеув at the level of 29.17 roubles (-4 kopeks). The Euro amounted to 38.6roubles (+4 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.41roubles on Tuesday (unchanged).

Therefore, declinein the USD and the growth in the Euro are both related to associated withoverall strengthening of European currency at the Forex market and due to preservationof uncertainty at the world capital market.

Presumably thepair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.10-29.35 Roubles for USD at thetrading session on Tuesday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: BRITISH POUND TENDS TO TEST THE LEVEL OF 1.5930

At the Forex currencymarket the pair GBP/USD has increased at the closing session on Monday amid thesurge of market enthusiasm and overall weakening in the American currency.
Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it has shifted tosideways movement, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator isgrowing in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at 1.5930, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. The specified narrow range bearsstrong resistance for pair’s quotes, at the same time long-term trend is stillupward.
The data on thebalance of foreign trade was better than that in December.
However, the Pound’s goodspirits were spoiled at the end of the week by the other data: volume of productionin the construction sector fell by 2.3% y/y in January; volume of industrialoutput declined by 0.4% m/m (-3.8%y/y).
Index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP was at thelevel of -29 points. House prices index Hometrack remained unchanged in onmonthly basis in February (-1.4% y/y).
Estimates of GFKNOPand that of the Bank of England showed that annual inflation expectationsamounted to 3.5% in February versus estimate of 4.1% in November.
Representative of theBank of England Mr. Broadbent noted last week, that he did not supportabolition of the economic stimulus program in the short term. He believes thatscrapping of the stimulus program could well grounded later but only ifdramatic improvement will be made in the lending and financing sector.
Representative of theBank of England Mr. Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continueto decline, and this will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs andreserve capacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promotethe rise in assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult toassess the impact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were notfor QE, domestic demand would have been significantly affected.
Mr.Wealenoted earlier that the rates could be raised before the regulator would rollback stimulus measures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitudeto inflation for the sake of economic stimulus is a good idea.
Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, numberof unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector preventseconomic recovery of the country in general.
A meeting of the Bankof England which was held last Thursday demonstrated that a split of opinionsin MPC is still preserved. Interest rate was left unchanged at the level of0.5% per annum as well as the volume of QE. The program of assets repurchase QEwas increased by 50 billion pounds in February to the level of 325 billionpounds.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: SWISS FRANC CONTINUESTO GROW AGAINST USD ON TUESDAY

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc ratedemonstrates increase at the beginning of the week due to stable externalbackground and investors’ positive sentiments.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes up inthe negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has comeout of the overbought zone and is also giving a sell signal.
Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070и 0.9050. Consolidation close to the current levels ispossible.
Marco-economicsituation in Switzerland is stable on the Tuesday morning.
Last year interventionscost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commentingthis information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effecton the market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year.
Trade balanceamounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50billion francs. The report demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary expectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by3.6% (preliminary forecast was +7.6%m/m).
Three- month Liborrate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNBviews on monetary policy remained unchanged, except for the economic forecast.
The regulator expects that inflation in2012-2014 will be from 0.6% tо +0.6%, GDP growthwill be of 1.0% this year.
GDP in the countryrose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1%y/y). This is good data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used toexpensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however itdemonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increasedto 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statisticsreleased on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in Januaryagainst the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.
Inflation fell by 0.4%m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. Thishas been the fourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall sinceOctober 2009.
According tostatistics released yesterday unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4%in February-with no change.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR HASREACHED RESISTANCE AT 1.0640

At the Forexcurrency market the Australian Dollar rate has reached monetary target at thelevel of 1.0640. All attention will be focused on this level: if it will bepreserved there will be new sales in the pair; if this level is exceeded, thepair will go to 1.0685. The identified levels are oversold basis on the movingaverage indicator Ichimoku.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, it has come through thesignal line from top to bottom and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up, pushing away from oversold zone and is shaping a buysignal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640 the pair will go to 1.0665 and1.0685.
It became knownyesterday that inflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% inMarch against the level of 2.8% in February.
Earlier, AustralianDollar rate has to cope with weak data on Chinese economy which was belowexpectations; it concerns the levels of export and the size of foreign tradedeficit in particular. China has been one of the main trading partners ofAustralia; therefore the AUD reacts strongly to statistics from this country.
Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in thecountry against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail salesfell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.
Statisticsreleased earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in Januaryagainst 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecastof growth of 5 thousand.
Such data cancause the revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.
According to therecent release of Australian National Association of Retailers, growth ofinternet sales has become a catalyst for decline in employment sector in theretail trade sector. Forecast of the Association shows that by 2015 retailsales sector will lose half of jobs: it will happen if government does notabolish taxes for companies in this sector and if government does not supportabolishment of import duties on goods purchase.
According tostatistics of the Association, internet sales amounted to 4% of total sales in2011; the index can rise to 9.5% by 2015.
Meeting of ARBlast week has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR CONTINUESTO GROW

At the Forexcurrency market the New Zealand Dollar rate continued to be traded upward onMonday, reflecting improvements in market environment. Quotes will finally gainthe foothold above oversold resistance level at 0.8270.on Tuesday
Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair NZD/USD is regaining in the positive area and is readyto break through the signal line from top to bottom giving a weak sell signal.Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendationsff the market: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8260 the pair will go to0.8270 and 0.8290. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.
Statisticsreleased last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of NewZealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported the currency.
According to thedata released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for thereporting period against previous decline of 3.4%.
Index of businessactivity BNZ in the service sector rose to 53.6 points in January againstpreliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has beenrecorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companieshave become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007.
Situation in NewZealand seems stable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bears the most influence on NZD.
Earlier ReserveBank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% asexpected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interestrate at the moment.
House price indexREINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectationsof decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q42011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive andindicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for theeconomy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.
Activity index inthe service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into theprice. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against theforecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y)against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.