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[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 09/06/08

Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD mixed on follow-through
• Model accounts buying USD/JPY
• More losses expected later in the week

Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.0%

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Trade Balance -58.2B
• 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Summary
The USD is mixed to start New York this morning after trading two-way overnight. A minor holiday in Asia kept volumes light but the USD remained under pressure from Friday’s close. Importers were seen buying USD/JPY as concerns about higher commodity prices for raw materials, especially crude oil, kept manufacturers nervous to start the week. Model account demand was also seen and the USD/JPY traded to a high at 105.87 through European trade before settling back a bit as crude prices fell into late morning in Europe. Cross-spreading for Yen from Sterling and EURO helped support the USD a bit as well but traders note that the USD/JPY continues to trade higher despite weakness against other pairs and are cautious about shorts. EURO rallied on follow-through from Friday for a high print at 1.5845 but failed to take out a reported option barrier at 1.5850; traders expect the upside to be challenged through the 1.60 handle and advise buying dips. Higher-than-expected UK inflation data helped to fuel a rise in the GBP overnight; all measures of the data continued to point to high inflation y/y. High prints in the GBP were at 1.9796 and again cross-spreaders for Sterling-Yen helped to support the move. Swissy met the downside objective for the first break lower at the 1.0150 area; low print at 1.0147 before some profit taking by the shorts was seen. Forex traders note that the USD/CHF has made a technical breakdown on the daily charts and despite lower Gold prices than the last time USD was at this level more losses are expected. In my view, the two-way action seen overnight with the downside bias into technical objectives indicates that the Greenback is beginning to settle down from the panic seen late last week. I expect that pullbacks/rallies in the USD will be offered at previous technical levels and as long as the sentiment remains for a weaker US economy through the third quarter of 2008 I think we can expect to see the USD continue lower and test for 2008 lows. Last week’s sharp break is telling us something and we need to go with it. Look for the next rally in USD as a selling opportunity. Those who held the EURO longs into the objective should be flat now after having sold 1.5800 even. Look for more longs in EURO this week.


EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5900
Resistance 2: 1.5880
Resistance 1: 1.5850
Latest New York: 1.5789
Support 1: 1.5750/60
Support 2: 1.5720
Support 3: 1.5650/60

Comments
Stops and offers noted above the 1.5790/1.5800 areas, COT data showed an increase in EURO shorts through last week and those are likely cleared now. Liquidate longs into the 1.5800 handle—if you set a limit order and let it work over the weekend you were filled this morning. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July; sentiment changes rapidly and the rally last week has cemented that view I think. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through Monday.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.8%
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2%


USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0350
Resistance 2: 1.0300/10
Resistance 1: 1.0250/60
Latest New York: 1.0193
Support 1: 1.0180
Support 2: 1.0150
Support 3: 1.0110/20

Comments
“Doji” action early suggests the rate to finding bids; no doubt some are profit-taking from the shorts. Large stops elected under the 1.0350 area early in the break Friday; active selling found waves of stops suggesting the late longs got clipped hard. Rate closing under the 100 and 50 bar MA suggests more downside is coming—like a test of the monthly lows. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/06/08

Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD two-way is moderate trade
• Majors correct into support but hold firm
• US data surprises to the upside

Overnight Preview
• Look for the USD to trade two-way
• Not a lot of news until later in the week

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Trade Balance -58.2B
• 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Summary
The Greenback is mixed to end New York after a whippy start to the week. Initially weaker in Asia, the minor holiday along the Pacific Rim slowed action until the start of European trade. The USD gained a bit on the EURO and GBP as UK data was mildly supportive for Cable but was ignored as the New York session got underway. The release of US housing data was above expectations and the USD rallied into the middle of the day; however technical levels held firm and the USD’s recovery from the thrashing it got Friday is likely to be brief. Both ECB Trichet and US Tres. Sec. Paulson were speaking today and hinted that the USD strength was welcome but Trichet was less than enthusiastic about the USD’s potential to recover. He said that he welcomed the advances seen in recent weeks but warned that the oil shock seen on both continents was the result of “poor policies”; Paulson also said that intervention by the US Fed “can’t be ruled out”. In my view I think that Mr. Paulson takes the trading community for fools because anyone with any experience at all knows that it is impossible for intervention to accomplish anything of lasting value; the Forex trading community only sees that as an opportunity to add to winning positions. I suppose if the Treasury and the Fed wish to repeat the mistakes of the BOE then we should look to that as an opportunity. For the record, the GBP reversed from the highs at 1.9804 to close around the 1.9720 area leaving a strong selling wick on the day. EURO had more than a 200 point range today and closed lower but did hold the 50 bar MA in moderate trade. Most desks are expecting the EURO to again rally this week as the fundamentals are surely supporting a higher EURO. USD/JPY rallied but traders feel this is more in line with Yen weakness rather than USD strength. The rate held the weekly highs from last week and for all intents and purposes the rate is topping at the weekly highs as volumes were light on the move. Look to sell this USD strength the next 24-48 hours. No rush as the majors have a lot of give and take likely to develop near-term; US data is thin this week and may not be a factor.


EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5900
Resistance 2: 1.5880
Resistance 1: 1.5850
Latest New York: 1.5721
Support 1: 1.5710/20
Support 2: 1.5680
Support 3: 1.5650/60

Comments
Disappointing day for the bulls; close under the 50 bar argues for return to bearish action. Stops and offers noted above the 1.5790/1.5800 areas, COT data showed an increase in EURO shorts through last week and those are likely cleared now; fall back today tests the 50 bar MA; close below likely signals a further decline. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week. Now that the break is out of the way we will look for a place to re-enter our longs.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.8%
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2%


USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0380
Resistance 2: 1.0350
Resistance 1: 1.0300/10
Latest New York: 1.0291
Support 1: 1.0150
Support 2: 1.0110/20
Support 3: 1.00080

Comments
Rate rallies to test the 50 bar MA where the stops were on Friday—fails to back a break higher stick suggesting the rate will rotate lower the next 24 hours. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short; sell signal today suggests rate is ready to rotate lower again. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Look for a sell signal again overnight. Light volumes suggest whipsaw coming.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 12/06/08

Today's Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD fails to hold gains
• Stops run early
• Two-way action suggests offers building

Overnight Preview
• Look for consolidation with a downside bias
• USD likely to open lower in New York tomorrow

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7%
• 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5%
• 8:30am USD Import Price Index m/m 2.5%
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K
• 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3%
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 11:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Summary
The USD was unable to hold gains earned yesterday as the Majors rallied across the board leaving the USD bulls with losses today. Although the rally by the GBP was muted compared to the rally seen in EURO traders remind that the week is not over yet and that the US data due the next 48 hours could easily be seen as unfriendly to the Greenback. GBP was unable to test highs made in Europe overnight as spillover strength from EURO supported the rate despite offers layered above the 1.9620 area. High prints at 1.9670 were offered by cross-spreaders and the rate held the 1.9620 area into the close. EURO made a new high in New York at 1.5588 before offers capped the move but the rate continued to firm all day and managed a close at the 1.5565 area suggesting that the EURO has some teeth to the bounce near-term. Volatility has been large in both pairs and traders expect that to continue. Both pairs may cover a lot of the same ground twice the next few days but at least in EUR I expect a firm close back over the 1.5600 handle to close the week. The ECB is set to hike rates and will continue to do so for the next few quarters and I don’t see the EURO falling back any more than a reasonable correction—which may have already happened with the trade action seen since February this year. USD/JPY is lower and failed to hold the 107.00 handle on the day; low prints at 106.55 were bought as rumors of official demand were seen but the rate closes lower on the day and more losses are coming in my view. Swissy is also under pressure and low prints in New York at 1.0307 are decidedly below stops seen at the 1.0350 area earlier in the day. Forex trader’s note that in all pairs light stops were elected as the USD lost ground but the larger stops are still working; look for more USD pressure near-term as technical trading dominates ahead of US data tomorrow and Friday. Look for book-squaring tonight ahead of Retail Sales data; not normally a market-mover but with unemployment on the hook tomorrow there is a chance of aggressive action by the USD bears if they like the data.


USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 108.20
Resistance 2: 107.80
Resistance 1: 107.40/50
Latest New York: 107.02
Support 1: 106.40/50
Support 2: 106.20/30
Support 3: 105.80

Comments
Rate grinds higher after breaking into support today; traders note model and momentum accounts buying USD Monday and Tuesday—good sign a top is forming. Traders report thinner conditions. Technical traders note a fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last 72 hours; USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Still showing signs of a top, offers by exporters all the way to the overnight high at 107.77 traders say suggesting that the strength may be short-lived. Stops likely rolled up under the 106.80 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to new monthly lows fairly quickly. Aggressive traders can sell anytime over the 107.00 area. Close over the 107.00 area a caution to the bears.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate


USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0520
Resistance 2: 1.0480
Resistance 1: 1.0440/50
Latest New York: 1.0321
Support 1: 1.0300/10
Support 2: 1.0250/60
Support 3: 1.0220

Comments
Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again. Today’s close under the 1.0350 area suggests further losses to end the week. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling so be ready for a short; if we get a sell signal on the day today likely to enter a short. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength. Look for a sell signal again overnight. Light volumes suggest whipsaw coming.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

6:00am CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[cikepong]

kesimpulannya aper...malas nak baca BI panjang-panjang ni.Kalau BM tu rajin jugak la nak baca.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 13/06/08

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD holds gains but volumes drop
• US data mixed
• Higher equities and lower oil support USD

Overnight Preview
• Expect the USD to consolidate
• No real news out ahead of US CPI on Friday

Looking Ahead
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2%
• 8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.5%
• 9:55am USD Prelim Michigan Sentiment 59.5

Summary
The USD is holding onto gains this afternoon after surprise US data helped underpin the Greenback; traders note that although the USD strength this week has been significant the majors are holding key S/R. Volumes have been only moderate and suggest that more news or rhetoric will be needed to break the USD higher as stops were cleared today leaving less interest on the bid. Forex traders note that the EURO in particular may be bottoming again as several shops have said that offers dried up on the move under the 1.5400 handle today as “no one wants to be short EURO under 1.5400” traders say. In my view, the EURO has really squeezed out the weak longs and offered a lot of volatility the past 4-5 days suggesting that there is a serious fight for control of the market between 1.5400 and 1.5800; above the 1.5800 the bulls look for new highs above the 1.6050 area to fall quickly and below 1.5400 the bears look for a confirmation of a serious correction. Both sides appear locked in a major struggle and the first side to gain control will likely dominate trade for several weeks. Cable had lows at 1.9432 after US retail sales data showed a bigger than expected improvement but a short-covering rally never materialized and the rate stagnated around the 1.9460 area for the whole day. EURO low prints at the 100 bar MA were bought; closing around the 1.5420/25 area suggests a bounce is coming to end the week. USD/JPY continued to remain firm and tag the 108.00 handle; highs at 108.09 were on thin volume and the rate is laboring to hold gains. Exporters said to be seriously offering USD into the 107.80 area and above. Swissy also stalled at key resistance unable to make a break above the 1.0480 area with any confidence; high prints at 1.0492 before rotating lower to close under the 1.0430 area. In my view, this USD rally is a serious head fake and should be sold with both hands. Aggressive traders have a lot to work with now that we are at monthly highs and quarterly highs; expect the USD to fall back on big volume as the last bit of longs made their move today.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.9580
Resistance 2: 1.9550
Resistance 1: 1.9500
Latest New York: 1.9477
Support 1: 1.9420/30
Support 2: 1.9400
Support 3: 1.9380

Comments
No follow-through on the day after two attempts for lows. Rate follows EURO lower into key support; a bounce is likely and aggressive traders can BUY under the 1.9500 handle. Spillover weakness from EURO still likely as would be strength. Technical objectives met at the 1.9500/50 area near-term; today could be a test of the lows. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think that will continue through this week. Today’s action suggests that more two-way trade likely ahead of US data today.

Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5500/10
Resistance 2: 1.5480
Resistance 1: 1.5450/60
Latest New York: 1.5422
Support 1: 1.5380/90
Support 2: 1.5350
Support 3: 1.5320

Comments
Rate fails to follow-through and holds the 100 bar MA. Strong buy signal coming soon if not yet later this afternoon. Rate falls on rumors and stops; could be a washout. Stopped out of position so we will look at the long side again to end the week tomorrow. Rate finds support as more rumors of semi-official demand. Stops noted on a break under the 1.5500 area. Late longs squeezed as comments from ECB officials slow upside. Support under the 1.5440 area appears solid. If buying today—ok to hold longs for a return to the 1.5800 area this week. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5580 area in size with option defense expected at 1.5550. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week.

Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:00am EUR German CPI m/m
5:00am EUR Labor Cost Index
6:00am EUR Employment Change


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Daily Forex Trading analysis - 16/06/08

Daily Forex Trading analysis - 16/06/08

Overnight Asia/Europe
• G-8 no mention of FOREX, threatens oil traders
• EU inflation revised higher
• USD on the defense to start the week

Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
• 9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
• 1:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
TICS and Pending Home Sales the big news on the day

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Housing Starts
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Building Permits
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Current Account
• 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate


Summary
The USD is on the defensive this morning after opening firmer to mixed in Asia overnight. The G-8 Communiqué was seen as USD bearish as no mention of currencies was made only a warning to oil speculators creating a risk to global inflation. In my view, the G-8 is missing the point—if you want to curb global inflation risks than force CHINA TO FLOAT THE YUAN; don’t punish those smart enough to take advantage of supply/demand inequalities. In any case, the USD initially fell on the remarks and remained two-way until early European trade. Upwardly revised EU HICP inflation numbers provided a brief pop high in EURO printing a 1.5475 high before dropping back a bit to open New York at 1.5460 area; Forex traders note the rate saw Russian selling around the 1.5430/40 are with stops above the 1.5450 area providing the lift into the highs. Technical trade likely ahead of additional offers in the 1.5500 area but the upside bias is there to start the week. GBP followed EURO higher making a move for stops above the 1.9580 and 1.9600 areas for high prints at 1.9649 making Cable the biggest mover on the board to start eh week. Cross-spreaders again in focus traders say as EURO/GBP spreaders take gains off the table from last week. Volumes have been modest but the GBP appears to be holding the 2008 lows again and a rotation into resistance is now likely but traders expect two-way action to continue on the way. USD/JPY continues to defy logic as the rate trades beyond the 200-day MA this morning; high prints at 108.59 a new high for the weekly charts and upside is said to be layered with offers all the way to the 2008 highs at 110.20/30 area; traders note exporters again on the offer into the highs. A close beyond the 200 bar MA for this pair likely to draw a huge amount of buying so be ready to sell into any rally near-term. In my view, the fundamentals don’t support a higher USD anyway despite the rhetoric from Paulson, Bush and Bernanke; rallies are selling opportunities. USD/CHF has stalled into the 1.0500 handle again; high prints at 1.0523 were sold and the rate is a full handle lower at 1.0425 to start New York. The strong sell signals on the daily charts are still active and aggressive traders can sell the rate anytime in my view. Today’s data is not expected to be market moving but might add a bit to the USD heaviness seen to start the week; look for the USD to whipsaw today but close lower across the board.


EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5550
Resistance 2: 1.5500/10
Resistance 1: 1.5480
Latest New York: 1.5463
Support 1: 1.5350
Support 2: 1.5300/10
Support 3: 1.5280

Comments
Another strong buy signal this morning suggests the rate will bottom; expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Looking to ADD to open longs if you took some on Friday—if not; looking to open a long on any weakness. Rate finds support as more rumors of Swiss private bank bids at current levels; should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table for Tuesday. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 now that the 1.5340 area of option defense fell.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR Trade Balance


USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0620
Resistance 2: 1.0580
Resistance 1: 1.0550/60
Latest New York: 1.0430
Support 1: 1.0420
Support 2: 1.0400
Support 3: 1.0380

Comments
Rate likely to draw additional selling pressure on a drop back under the 100 bar MA today; look for sell signals the past three sessions to hold. Look for a short early this week; aggressive traders who sold USD/CHF on the close Friday can look to add soon. Overhead resistance at the 1.0600 handle but rate may be getting boost from other USD strength in other pairs. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again today but a sell off to end the day is needed. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling again so be ready for a short next week. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 17/06/2008

Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD retreats from Friday’s gain
• US data benign—points to more losses
• Speculation grows that USD will fall

Overnight Preview
• Look for the USD to consolidate
• Expect two-way action

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Housing Starts
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Building Permits
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Current Account
• 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate

Summary
The USD starts this week lower against most pairs but still two-sided as Monday draws to a close. In New York the USD saw the worst levels of the day so far as surging oil prices slammed equities and rallied the EURO. Oil prices slid off as volatility whipsawed energy prices taking the USD higher against the Swiss Franc and firming up against Yen but still unable to better the highs seen on Friday across the board. US forex trading data was benign as most reports came in lower than expected; TICS showed a decent cover but still not the whole picture as EURO remained firm near the 1.5500 handle all day. EURO rallied for a high print at 1.5520 early ahead of the London fix and keeping GBP up with it. Cable high during NY trade at 1.9690 with stops above the 1.9650 area driving the rate to the highs. Profit taking by longs dropped the rate back to the 1.9620/30 area into the close but EURO’s firmness into the end of the day suggest that both rates are poised for an additional leg higher overnight or during US trade tomorrow. If US data in the morning is again benign for the Greenback traders expect another leg lower for the USD during the day. USD/JPY remained above the 108.00 handle but under the 200 day MA making the technical picture better for the bears who argue a top is forming; USD/CHF also topping as the 1.0480 area again offers resistance all day to the USD. Highs at the 1.0523 level went unchallenged all day in NY suggesting that the Swissy is ready to drop back to below the 100 bar MA to start the week. Traders note that in all pairs the technical picture appears in focus near-term and expect dips to be bought and rallies to be sold. The big question is where are the large stops? Traders look for tomorrows’ data to push the Greenback in both directions so expect some whipsaw as the majors look for near-term direction.


EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5580
Resistance 2: 1.5550/60
Resistance 1: 1.5520
Latest New York: 1.5480
Support 1: 1.5350
Support 2: 1.5300/10
Support 3: 1.5280

Comments
Another strong buy signal this morning suggests the rate will bottom; expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Today’s rally likely to encounter selling pressure up to the 1.5550 and 1.5580 areas; looking to ADD to open longs if you took some on Friday—if not; looking to open a long on any weakness. Rate finds support as more rumors of Swiss private bank bids at current levels; should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table for Tuesday. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 now that the 1.5340 area of option defense fell.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR Trade Balance


USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0580
Resistance 2: 1.0550/60
Resistance 1: 1.0520
Latest New York: 1.0443
Support 1: 1.0400
Support 2: 1.0380
Support 3: 1.0320/30

Comments
Rate likely to draw additional selling pressure on a drop back under the 100 bar MA today; look for sell signals the past three sessions to hold. Look for a short early this week; aggressive traders who sold USD/CHF on the close Friday can look to add soon. Overhead resistance at the 1.0600 handle but rate may be getting boost from other USD strength in other pairs. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again today but a sell off to end the day is needed. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling again so be ready for a short next week. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q


Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.


Also Check our Forex brokers section.