matttiya88
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good info but too long to read.make it simple..peace..
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 15/05/08
Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•USD rallies ahead of News, lacks follow-through
•Majors on S/R volumes low
•Sovereign names seen selling USD
Overnight Preview
•A round of book-squaring likely
Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 0.1
•8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K
•9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 63.6B
•9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 80.1%
•9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.3%
•9:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
•10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -19.0
•1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 20
•7:00pm USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
Summary
The USD rallied today after a slow start again in Asia helped by better equities pricing and model/momentum accounts buying; Forex traders note that volumes were not impressive and the majors all held significant S/R. Initially two-way in Asia the Greenback went one-way on stops and aggressive buying near the start of European trade as reserve managers bought USD in the morning only to see the majors reverse after news; the USD sold off on the BOE inflation report but then recovered reversing ahead of US data. Today’s CPI data was softer-than-expected and the USD initially broke lower on the day but held existing overnight ranges. Settling back after the London Fix the USD continued to drift in quieter range-bound action with little news driving any of the pairs. Cable continued to hold the 1.9450 area that has held stops in both directions the past 72 hours; low prints at 1.9361 were bought by cross-spreaders and semi-official names traders say. Upside limited to the 1.9487 high but the rate has solid bids at the 1.9400 handle and slightly above. Traders are looking for the rate to hold the 2008 lows and a solid bounce is expected by the end of the week. EURO no less aggressive to the upside but continues to languish under the 1.5500 handle as traders say offers appear thick on the approach. Highs at 1.5487 were met with Swiss private bank sales some traders report; same names seen on the bid under the 1.5400 handle recently. Traders note sovereign demand in EURO at around the 1.5430 area and also in USD/JPY on the buy side. USD/JPY rallied into stops above the 104.80 area and again at 105.20 area for a high print at 105.46 but the rate is really struggling to hold gains and traders report volumes are light and flows patchy; heavy offers said to be around the 105.50 area and higher suggesting the rate is at or near a top. Swissy also encountering strong resistance under the 1.0600 handle; highs at 1.0601 were more symbolic than anything else. Traders are looking for the USD to pull back from here but the lack of selling interest is a concern for the shorts. In my view, the USD needed to give back some of these gains right away rather than hold firm as it has. Tomorrow is another day of important news so watch for book squaring overnight to temper the USD advance. A long-liquidation break is coming and when it does the Greenback could break sharply very quickly.
USD/JPY
Resistance 3: 106.00
Resistance 2: 105.80
Resistance 1: 105.50
Latest New York: 105.21
Support 1: 104.60
Support 2: 104.20/30
Support 3: 103.80
Comments
Rate makes one more high into resistance generating a strong sell signal. Look for the rate to fall on the news but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; look for close-in stops under the 104.50 area today. Continue to expect more volatility. Looking for the rate to briefly follow through higher for a short-covering rally through Tuesday but fall harder into mid week; likely under the 103.00 handle. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY GDP q/q 0.6%
7:50pm JPY GDP Deflator y/y-1.5%
USD/CHF Daily
Resistance 3: 1.0700
Resistance 2: 1.0650
Resistance 1: 1.0600/10
Latest New York: 1.0552
Support 1: 1.0500/10
Support 2: 1.0450/60
Support 3: 1.0400/10
Comments
Rally overnight may be expected in sympathy with YEN but upside is labored; stalling at the 1.0600 handle significant. No follow-through after news this morning is a signal the top may be in. Pullback needed to confirm strong sell signal generated overnight. Monday’s failure above the 1.0500 handle still significant in my view. Likely this rally overnight is model and momentum accounts on the buy side. Upside is limited and the volumes aren’t that great so far today again. Be nimble though as a break below 1.0380 likely to draw aggressive selling. Rate continues to attract dip buying; next dip will likely be bought around 1.0400 area; but last three dips have failed to create significant rally. Close under the 1.0400 area sets up a loss to 1.0250 near-term.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:45am CHF Consumer Climate
5:00am CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•USD rallies ahead of News, lacks follow-through
•Majors on S/R volumes low
•Sovereign names seen selling USD
Overnight Preview
•A round of book-squaring likely
Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 0.1
•8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K
•9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 63.6B
•9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 80.1%
•9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.3%
•9:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
•10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -19.0
•1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 20
•7:00pm USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
Summary
The USD rallied today after a slow start again in Asia helped by better equities pricing and model/momentum accounts buying; Forex traders note that volumes were not impressive and the majors all held significant S/R. Initially two-way in Asia the Greenback went one-way on stops and aggressive buying near the start of European trade as reserve managers bought USD in the morning only to see the majors reverse after news; the USD sold off on the BOE inflation report but then recovered reversing ahead of US data. Today’s CPI data was softer-than-expected and the USD initially broke lower on the day but held existing overnight ranges. Settling back after the London Fix the USD continued to drift in quieter range-bound action with little news driving any of the pairs. Cable continued to hold the 1.9450 area that has held stops in both directions the past 72 hours; low prints at 1.9361 were bought by cross-spreaders and semi-official names traders say. Upside limited to the 1.9487 high but the rate has solid bids at the 1.9400 handle and slightly above. Traders are looking for the rate to hold the 2008 lows and a solid bounce is expected by the end of the week. EURO no less aggressive to the upside but continues to languish under the 1.5500 handle as traders say offers appear thick on the approach. Highs at 1.5487 were met with Swiss private bank sales some traders report; same names seen on the bid under the 1.5400 handle recently. Traders note sovereign demand in EURO at around the 1.5430 area and also in USD/JPY on the buy side. USD/JPY rallied into stops above the 104.80 area and again at 105.20 area for a high print at 105.46 but the rate is really struggling to hold gains and traders report volumes are light and flows patchy; heavy offers said to be around the 105.50 area and higher suggesting the rate is at or near a top. Swissy also encountering strong resistance under the 1.0600 handle; highs at 1.0601 were more symbolic than anything else. Traders are looking for the USD to pull back from here but the lack of selling interest is a concern for the shorts. In my view, the USD needed to give back some of these gains right away rather than hold firm as it has. Tomorrow is another day of important news so watch for book squaring overnight to temper the USD advance. A long-liquidation break is coming and when it does the Greenback could break sharply very quickly.
USD/JPY
Resistance 3: 106.00
Resistance 2: 105.80
Resistance 1: 105.50
Latest New York: 105.21
Support 1: 104.60
Support 2: 104.20/30
Support 3: 103.80
Comments
Rate makes one more high into resistance generating a strong sell signal. Look for the rate to fall on the news but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; look for close-in stops under the 104.50 area today. Continue to expect more volatility. Looking for the rate to briefly follow through higher for a short-covering rally through Tuesday but fall harder into mid week; likely under the 103.00 handle. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY GDP q/q 0.6%
7:50pm JPY GDP Deflator y/y-1.5%
USD/CHF Daily
Resistance 3: 1.0700
Resistance 2: 1.0650
Resistance 1: 1.0600/10
Latest New York: 1.0552
Support 1: 1.0500/10
Support 2: 1.0450/60
Support 3: 1.0400/10
Comments
Rally overnight may be expected in sympathy with YEN but upside is labored; stalling at the 1.0600 handle significant. No follow-through after news this morning is a signal the top may be in. Pullback needed to confirm strong sell signal generated overnight. Monday’s failure above the 1.0500 handle still significant in my view. Likely this rally overnight is model and momentum accounts on the buy side. Upside is limited and the volumes aren’t that great so far today again. Be nimble though as a break below 1.0380 likely to draw aggressive selling. Rate continues to attract dip buying; next dip will likely be bought around 1.0400 area; but last three dips have failed to create significant rally. Close under the 1.0400 area sets up a loss to 1.0250 near-term.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:45am CHF Consumer Climate
5:00am CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
Banned
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 19/05/08
Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•US data a mixed bag, housing head-fakes everyone
•Stops drive a reversal after early strength
•Majors under support near-term
Overnight Preview
•Look for two-way consolidation on Monday
•More losses for USD coming I think
Looking Ahead to Monday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•10:00am USD Leading Index m/m
Almost no news for Monday anywhere. Trading should be largely technical
Summary
The USD bulls got their horns sawed off today as better-than-expected Housing data sucked the late long into the top for the week. Across all pairs the USD rallied on the news but was unable to score new weekly highs and within an hour of the news the Greenback was under dire pressure and made lows across the board in heavy volume. Reaching technical support after the London Fix the rest of the day was spent in clean-up as the volumes dropped off and the majors went sideways to consolidate their gains. Cable rallied into stops and blasted through several layers of serious offers to post a high print at 1.9601 making a new high for the week on a Friday suggesting the rate will advance early next week. If holding longs look to add on a pullback for an attempt at the 1.9700 area by mid-week. EURO rallied for a new weekly high as well and flushed stops above the 1.5550 area for a high print at 1.5602 and failed to attract serious sellers. Traders note that aggressive offers by sovereign names as well as private Swiss bank selling failed to absorb bids; most order books were wiped clean of offers and it is likely the rate will advance early next week as well. Some analysts suggest that high Oil prices had an effect of firmer EURO but I think that is an attempt to lay blame for late selling. USD/JPY fell through several layers of support exposing large stops in the process. Stops at 104.40 by late longs were enough to make a low print under the 104.10 area exposing stops at 104.00, 103.80 and 103.60; the latter attracting bids but not before a low print at 103.51 washed out the last late long. The pair briefly rallied to regain the 104.00 handle but some of that may be residual short-covering after the early bloodbath. Swissy and Loonie also saw slippage with all major cross falling back as well. In my view, the USD has set-up for further declines next week. Due to the intraday volatility I would expect a lot of two-way action but today’s one-way slide suggests that the market is unable to attract serious buying the next 72 hours. USD bears need to sell rallies and look for the majors to cover a lot of the same ground twice; day Forex traders will have a lot of money to make next week in my view. Monday is a light day for news and the whole week is likely to be technical trading so if not positioned with a lead be patient. There will be a lot of opportunity in my view.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5680
Resistance 2: 1.5630/40
Resistance 1: 1.5600/10
Latest New York: 1.5588
Support 1: 1.5550
Support 2: 1.5500
Support 3: 1.5480
Comments
Rate hammers the shorts; close above the 1.5550 area argues for additional follow-on buying but expect offers on the approach to 1.5630/40 area. Crude prices likely offering a bit of volatility. Traders like the rate to the upside as stops have been cleared underneath for now; longs likely to have rolled up stops under the 1.5520 area so volatility possible; don’t expect one-way action Monday. OK to re-short at 1.5620/30 area but be nimble; the rate is setting up for a potential upside recovery. Rally back from dip under the 1.5400 handle suggests active buying on dips; traders say lots of official and sovereign names seen buying dips. More losses are coming but the jury is out on the length of the bounce in progress.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.15
Support 1: 103.70/80
Support 2: 103.50
Support 3: 103.00
Comments
Stops drive the rate lower but the recovery off the low prints is a caution to bears. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; ok to add to the rate on further losses. Bids held the rate up for a test of the 105.00 handle this morning but the weakness is there into the end of New York so look for light volume rallies to sell into. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to fall on the news today but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 104.30 area cleared overnight. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.7%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•US data a mixed bag, housing head-fakes everyone
•Stops drive a reversal after early strength
•Majors under support near-term
Overnight Preview
•Look for two-way consolidation on Monday
•More losses for USD coming I think
Looking Ahead to Monday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•10:00am USD Leading Index m/m
Almost no news for Monday anywhere. Trading should be largely technical
Summary
The USD bulls got their horns sawed off today as better-than-expected Housing data sucked the late long into the top for the week. Across all pairs the USD rallied on the news but was unable to score new weekly highs and within an hour of the news the Greenback was under dire pressure and made lows across the board in heavy volume. Reaching technical support after the London Fix the rest of the day was spent in clean-up as the volumes dropped off and the majors went sideways to consolidate their gains. Cable rallied into stops and blasted through several layers of serious offers to post a high print at 1.9601 making a new high for the week on a Friday suggesting the rate will advance early next week. If holding longs look to add on a pullback for an attempt at the 1.9700 area by mid-week. EURO rallied for a new weekly high as well and flushed stops above the 1.5550 area for a high print at 1.5602 and failed to attract serious sellers. Traders note that aggressive offers by sovereign names as well as private Swiss bank selling failed to absorb bids; most order books were wiped clean of offers and it is likely the rate will advance early next week as well. Some analysts suggest that high Oil prices had an effect of firmer EURO but I think that is an attempt to lay blame for late selling. USD/JPY fell through several layers of support exposing large stops in the process. Stops at 104.40 by late longs were enough to make a low print under the 104.10 area exposing stops at 104.00, 103.80 and 103.60; the latter attracting bids but not before a low print at 103.51 washed out the last late long. The pair briefly rallied to regain the 104.00 handle but some of that may be residual short-covering after the early bloodbath. Swissy and Loonie also saw slippage with all major cross falling back as well. In my view, the USD has set-up for further declines next week. Due to the intraday volatility I would expect a lot of two-way action but today’s one-way slide suggests that the market is unable to attract serious buying the next 72 hours. USD bears need to sell rallies and look for the majors to cover a lot of the same ground twice; day Forex traders will have a lot of money to make next week in my view. Monday is a light day for news and the whole week is likely to be technical trading so if not positioned with a lead be patient. There will be a lot of opportunity in my view.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5680
Resistance 2: 1.5630/40
Resistance 1: 1.5600/10
Latest New York: 1.5588
Support 1: 1.5550
Support 2: 1.5500
Support 3: 1.5480
Comments
Rate hammers the shorts; close above the 1.5550 area argues for additional follow-on buying but expect offers on the approach to 1.5630/40 area. Crude prices likely offering a bit of volatility. Traders like the rate to the upside as stops have been cleared underneath for now; longs likely to have rolled up stops under the 1.5520 area so volatility possible; don’t expect one-way action Monday. OK to re-short at 1.5620/30 area but be nimble; the rate is setting up for a potential upside recovery. Rally back from dip under the 1.5400 handle suggests active buying on dips; traders say lots of official and sovereign names seen buying dips. More losses are coming but the jury is out on the length of the bounce in progress.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.15
Support 1: 103.70/80
Support 2: 103.50
Support 3: 103.00
Comments
Stops drive the rate lower but the recovery off the low prints is a caution to bears. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; ok to add to the rate on further losses. Bids held the rate up for a test of the 105.00 handle this morning but the weakness is there into the end of New York so look for light volume rallies to sell into. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to fall on the news today but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 104.30 area cleared overnight. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.7%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
Banned
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 20/05/08
Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•USD rallies in light volume
•Traders say today was a “stop hunt”
•Short-term traders active
Overnight Preview
•USD likely to fall back, European data may lift EURO
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.4%
•8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2%
•9:00am USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks
•9:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 38.0
•10:00am USD Fed Publishes TAF Summary
Summary
The hardly-watched LEI data today came out better-than-expected this morning and the USD saw a stop-driven rally ensue until after the London fix when the Greenback came under renewed pressure. Forex Traders note that volumes were not high and that it was clear that the majors had a short-lived stop-driven break; S/R held as expected and aside from a few wrong-footed panicked accounts the day was really a typical no-news day. I think the rally in the USD was seen as a bit too much for current conditions and waiting for both US and European news due out the next 24 hours. Overnight in Europe is German IFO and ZEW data likely to help the EURO build on a recovery off today’s 1.5484 low prints; highs in Europe this morning at 1.5634 went unchallenged in NY trade today. Absent were official names seen on the bid the past few sessions with most of their activity well below today’s lows suggesting that major names are unconcerned with today’s volatility. GBP fell back on stops as well tracking EURO lower until the low prints at 1.9452 where bids finally took a stand. Trading to within a few pips of the 1.9500 handle after the break the GBP remained under the 1.9500 handle through the close. Should EURO rally on positive economic news the GBP might go with it as there is nothing of note on the books for the UK overnight. USD/JPY and USD/CHF both had a strong stop-driven rally but both pairs finished well off their highs on the day and generated strong sell signals. USD/JPY had a high print at 104.71 before reversing to finish under the 104.30 area. USD/CHF had a high at 1.0575 and also finished under the 1.0530 area; both rates were rallying largely on light volumes and the moves were mostly exaggerated I think. I would look for both rates to fall back overnight and continue to attract selling on rallies. Ahead of US data in the morning I would look for some book-squaring; German data will likely cause a little volatility so leave stops where they are if holding positions. We were stopped out of short USD/CHF today but added to short USD/JPY; tomorrow should be an interesting day and I expect USD downside to follow-through as today’s trade was a “head-fake” I believe.
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.33
Support 1: 103.60
Support 2: 103.20/30
Support 3: 103.00
Comments
Stops drive the rate higher and after Friday’s stop-driven break the order boards are likely wiped clean. Failure to score the 105.00 handle very significant in my view. Strong sell signal from the toolbox today so OK to add to the open shorts. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; we need a solid close under the 103.80 area next. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to continue sideways overnight as today’s stop-frenzy was unexpected. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 103.50 area likely in size today. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 0.5%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.50%
2:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
•USD rallies in light volume
•Traders say today was a “stop hunt”
•Short-term traders active
Overnight Preview
•USD likely to fall back, European data may lift EURO
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.4%
•8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2%
•9:00am USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks
•9:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 38.0
•10:00am USD Fed Publishes TAF Summary
Summary
The hardly-watched LEI data today came out better-than-expected this morning and the USD saw a stop-driven rally ensue until after the London fix when the Greenback came under renewed pressure. Forex Traders note that volumes were not high and that it was clear that the majors had a short-lived stop-driven break; S/R held as expected and aside from a few wrong-footed panicked accounts the day was really a typical no-news day. I think the rally in the USD was seen as a bit too much for current conditions and waiting for both US and European news due out the next 24 hours. Overnight in Europe is German IFO and ZEW data likely to help the EURO build on a recovery off today’s 1.5484 low prints; highs in Europe this morning at 1.5634 went unchallenged in NY trade today. Absent were official names seen on the bid the past few sessions with most of their activity well below today’s lows suggesting that major names are unconcerned with today’s volatility. GBP fell back on stops as well tracking EURO lower until the low prints at 1.9452 where bids finally took a stand. Trading to within a few pips of the 1.9500 handle after the break the GBP remained under the 1.9500 handle through the close. Should EURO rally on positive economic news the GBP might go with it as there is nothing of note on the books for the UK overnight. USD/JPY and USD/CHF both had a strong stop-driven rally but both pairs finished well off their highs on the day and generated strong sell signals. USD/JPY had a high print at 104.71 before reversing to finish under the 104.30 area. USD/CHF had a high at 1.0575 and also finished under the 1.0530 area; both rates were rallying largely on light volumes and the moves were mostly exaggerated I think. I would look for both rates to fall back overnight and continue to attract selling on rallies. Ahead of US data in the morning I would look for some book-squaring; German data will likely cause a little volatility so leave stops where they are if holding positions. We were stopped out of short USD/CHF today but added to short USD/JPY; tomorrow should be an interesting day and I expect USD downside to follow-through as today’s trade was a “head-fake” I believe.
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.33
Support 1: 103.60
Support 2: 103.20/30
Support 3: 103.00
Comments
Stops drive the rate higher and after Friday’s stop-driven break the order boards are likely wiped clean. Failure to score the 105.00 handle very significant in my view. Strong sell signal from the toolbox today so OK to add to the open shorts. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; we need a solid close under the 103.80 area next. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to continue sideways overnight as today’s stop-frenzy was unexpected. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 103.50 area likely in size today. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 0.5%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.50%
2:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
In association with Forex Trading Edge
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
levitez
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ForexAnalysis
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 02/06/08
Read the Daily Forex Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe
• USD mixed, volumes modest
• UK news disappoints Cable
• Technical trade overnight
Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
• 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.0%
• Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales 10.8M
Summary
The USD is starting the week mixed in New York this morning as overseas news drives early interest in the USD. Negative news in the UK prompted a strong selling day in the GBP today, Cable dropping to a low print at 1.9595 before attempting a recovery. Reports of forex traders increasing short sales of UK retailers’ stocks, negative press on Prime Minister Brown and reports that a large number of UK households have slipped into negative equity weighed on Sterling to start. Cross spreaders have had a great start to the week as the Sterling side of everything has pushed all the rates sharply higher. This has hurt EURO as the two pairs are tracking each other; EURO unable to extend gains from Friday and is trapped in the lower end of its early range; low prints at 1.5513 and highs at 1.5571 are making for dull trade. Good demand from Asian sovereign names was seen traders say around the opening range at 1.5550 area but offers from a well-respected German name capped the potential rally early. EURO trading right down the middle of the range in early New York at 1.5530 area. USD/JPY is slightly weaker with lows at 104.64; traders note stops on the break triggered at 104.90 area and the USD bulls are now on the defense. Asian volumes were lighter but the USD/JPY will likely remain on the defensive this week as no real news from the Japanese is seen as potentially market moving but US data due later will likely have an impact; look for the rate to continue to trade two-way with a lower bias for the week. If holding shorts in the rate look to add soon depending on the quality of the close today. Ideally, you would like a failed low-volume rally to sell into. Swissy continues to grind lower as well but has found some technical support overnight at the May daily pivot point at 1.0390; Monday’s low so far at 1.0389. Traders note that large stops are building in the 103.80/90 area suggesting that the late longs form last week are set to bail. Support is not heavy until the 1.0280 area and a hard break could be in the works there. In my view, the USD is set to resume its downward action this week. I would look for two-way action into the NFP data on Thursday with a break coming later in the week. For the most part the higher action against the GBP is a near-term “head fake” and not indicative of the overall market bias. Look for the EURO and GBP to recover higher by mid week.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9780
Resistance 2: 1.9720
Resistance 1: 1.9680
Latest New York: 1.9610
Support 1: 1.9600
Support 2: 1.9550
Support 3: 1.9520
Comments
Rate reverses hard again after strong rally on Friday, Rate likely to see support come in around the 1.9630 area but volatility could whipsaw from that area. Fundamentals still suggest a lower GBP and the failure to extend gains above the 1.9850 area so soon after Friday’s reversal argue for a continued downside after a bounce is possible. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Need a close below the 100 bar MA to build argument for the short but volatility is higher so expect a rally back to test the breakdown.
Not a lot to do but wait in my view.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 45.7
7:01pm GBP Consumer Confidence Index 68
USD/CHF Daily
Resistance 3: 1.0550
Resistance 2: 1.0500/10
Resistance 1: 1.0480
Latest New York: 1.0422
Support 1: 1.0380
Support 2: 1.0350
Support 3: 1.0310/20
Comments
Rate weakens in early Asia and now remains two-way in light directionless trade. Traders say stops are likely building under the 103.80 area and a drop into lows mid-week is expected now that the rate failed again at the 1.0520 area. The late longs will have to bail if the rate slides back under the 1.0400 area; some of them likely out overnight. Look for rallies to be sold and the 104.80 area to hold key resistance on an upside rally. News this week is likely to remain non-eventful until NFP later. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength; possible short at the 1.0450/60 area for today but that is a long-shot due to the trade under the 1.0400 area already.
Looking to re-short the next 24 hours—our stop just close enough today to tag us out.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:45am CHF CPI m/m 0.4%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex Brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Read the Daily Forex Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe
• USD mixed, volumes modest
• UK news disappoints Cable
• Technical trade overnight
Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
• 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.0%
• Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales 10.8M
Summary
The USD is starting the week mixed in New York this morning as overseas news drives early interest in the USD. Negative news in the UK prompted a strong selling day in the GBP today, Cable dropping to a low print at 1.9595 before attempting a recovery. Reports of forex traders increasing short sales of UK retailers’ stocks, negative press on Prime Minister Brown and reports that a large number of UK households have slipped into negative equity weighed on Sterling to start. Cross spreaders have had a great start to the week as the Sterling side of everything has pushed all the rates sharply higher. This has hurt EURO as the two pairs are tracking each other; EURO unable to extend gains from Friday and is trapped in the lower end of its early range; low prints at 1.5513 and highs at 1.5571 are making for dull trade. Good demand from Asian sovereign names was seen traders say around the opening range at 1.5550 area but offers from a well-respected German name capped the potential rally early. EURO trading right down the middle of the range in early New York at 1.5530 area. USD/JPY is slightly weaker with lows at 104.64; traders note stops on the break triggered at 104.90 area and the USD bulls are now on the defense. Asian volumes were lighter but the USD/JPY will likely remain on the defensive this week as no real news from the Japanese is seen as potentially market moving but US data due later will likely have an impact; look for the rate to continue to trade two-way with a lower bias for the week. If holding shorts in the rate look to add soon depending on the quality of the close today. Ideally, you would like a failed low-volume rally to sell into. Swissy continues to grind lower as well but has found some technical support overnight at the May daily pivot point at 1.0390; Monday’s low so far at 1.0389. Traders note that large stops are building in the 103.80/90 area suggesting that the late longs form last week are set to bail. Support is not heavy until the 1.0280 area and a hard break could be in the works there. In my view, the USD is set to resume its downward action this week. I would look for two-way action into the NFP data on Thursday with a break coming later in the week. For the most part the higher action against the GBP is a near-term “head fake” and not indicative of the overall market bias. Look for the EURO and GBP to recover higher by mid week.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9780
Resistance 2: 1.9720
Resistance 1: 1.9680
Latest New York: 1.9610
Support 1: 1.9600
Support 2: 1.9550
Support 3: 1.9520
Comments
Rate reverses hard again after strong rally on Friday, Rate likely to see support come in around the 1.9630 area but volatility could whipsaw from that area. Fundamentals still suggest a lower GBP and the failure to extend gains above the 1.9850 area so soon after Friday’s reversal argue for a continued downside after a bounce is possible. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Need a close below the 100 bar MA to build argument for the short but volatility is higher so expect a rally back to test the breakdown.
Not a lot to do but wait in my view.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 45.7
7:01pm GBP Consumer Confidence Index 68
USD/CHF Daily
Resistance 3: 1.0550
Resistance 2: 1.0500/10
Resistance 1: 1.0480
Latest New York: 1.0422
Support 1: 1.0380
Support 2: 1.0350
Support 3: 1.0310/20
Comments
Rate weakens in early Asia and now remains two-way in light directionless trade. Traders say stops are likely building under the 103.80 area and a drop into lows mid-week is expected now that the rate failed again at the 1.0520 area. The late longs will have to bail if the rate slides back under the 1.0400 area; some of them likely out overnight. Look for rallies to be sold and the 104.80 area to hold key resistance on an upside rally. News this week is likely to remain non-eventful until NFP later. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength; possible short at the 1.0450/60 area for today but that is a long-shot due to the trade under the 1.0400 area already.
Looking to re-short the next 24 hours—our stop just close enough today to tag us out.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:45am CHF CPI m/m 0.4%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex Brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 03/06/08
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD mixed, US data no help
• Stops drive a lot of early trade
• S/R broken but the majors bounce back
Overnight Preview
• USD likely to trade two-way
• Consolidation ahead of the news later in the week likely
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.0%
• Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales 10.8M
Summary
The USD ends the day mixed after starting overnight mixed against the majors. Despite slightly better-than-expected US data this morning the USD sold off to make lows against most pairs by about the London Fix; after that the Greenback settled into two-way forex trade that gradually ground higher to end the day mid-range. Stops were the larger part of the day’s action traders say with only the GBP dropping into technical support. For the most part the USD fell back to test recent S/R and more technical two-way trade is expected overnight as fundamental news is light ahead of NFP later this week. Cable fell back from a high print overnight at 1.9776 to post a New York low at 1.9595 before rebounding; holding above the 1.9630 area is a good clue the rate will rotate higher the next 24 hours or so. Volumes were only moderate traders say so it is possible that GBP will remain two-way within existing S/R. EURO fell through support on stop driven trade for a low print at 1.5485 before rallying out of the hole to post a high print at 1.5591 before offers capped the rally. Again, traders say volumes were only moderate and the rate is expected to remain range bound. Both pairs appear to be tracking one another so aggressive traders can look to buy dips and you can expect a signal the next 24 hours or so. USD/JPY fell through several layers of support as well dropping to a low print on stops at 104.01 before bouncing to the 104.50 area. Stops under the 104.50 area were absorbed easily but offers were finally able to push the rate into the 104.20 area and once cleared the rate rebounded on profit-taking. Swissy had an identical day but fell through the 1.0380/90 area considered to be the monthly pivot point; closing under the 1.0350 area the rate looks for more weakness near-term but as in other rates analysts expect two-way trade. Looking ahead the next 24 hours I would expect the USD to consolidate within existing ranges. Look for more opportunity to short the USD on strength near-term.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9780
Resistance 2: 1.9720
Resistance 1: 1.9680
Latest New York: 1.9660
Support 1: 1.9600/1.9590
Support 2: 1.9550
Support 3: 1.9520
Comments
Long wick suggests bid pressure for two-way action coming, rumors of official demand lift rate off the lows around the 1.9590 area; failure to put on weight above the 1.9700 area suggests rate will consolidate lower. Lots of potential for day traders the next 24-48 hours as the rate is likely to stay range bound ahead of US data later in the week. Fundamentals still suggest a lower GBP and the failure to extend gains above the 1.9850 area so soon after Friday’s reversal argue for a continued downside after a bounce is possible. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Need a close below the 100 bar MA to build argument for the short but volatility is higher so expect a rally back to test the breakdown, expect continued whipsaw.
Not a lot to do but wait in my view.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 45.7
7:01pm GBP Consumer Confidence Index 68
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.50
Resistance 2: 105.20
Resistance 1: 104.80
Latest New York: 104.49
Support 1: 104.00
Support 2: 103.70/80
Support 3: 103.40/50
Comments
Rate broke into stops under the 104.20 area but no one was home and the rate recovered after the move. Not likely to see further weakness without an attempt at a rally in my view. Monday’s close leaves a doubt to the potential; expect lot’s of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. Stops the other side of 105.80 are in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short last week. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week.
Look for stops to be raised up by the longs this week and some should be resting under today’s lows around the 104.50 area (likely cleared with today’s drop)
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
9:00am JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
7:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/q -9.6%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD mixed, US data no help
• Stops drive a lot of early trade
• S/R broken but the majors bounce back
Overnight Preview
• USD likely to trade two-way
• Consolidation ahead of the news later in the week likely
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.0%
• Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales 10.8M
Summary
The USD ends the day mixed after starting overnight mixed against the majors. Despite slightly better-than-expected US data this morning the USD sold off to make lows against most pairs by about the London Fix; after that the Greenback settled into two-way forex trade that gradually ground higher to end the day mid-range. Stops were the larger part of the day’s action traders say with only the GBP dropping into technical support. For the most part the USD fell back to test recent S/R and more technical two-way trade is expected overnight as fundamental news is light ahead of NFP later this week. Cable fell back from a high print overnight at 1.9776 to post a New York low at 1.9595 before rebounding; holding above the 1.9630 area is a good clue the rate will rotate higher the next 24 hours or so. Volumes were only moderate traders say so it is possible that GBP will remain two-way within existing S/R. EURO fell through support on stop driven trade for a low print at 1.5485 before rallying out of the hole to post a high print at 1.5591 before offers capped the rally. Again, traders say volumes were only moderate and the rate is expected to remain range bound. Both pairs appear to be tracking one another so aggressive traders can look to buy dips and you can expect a signal the next 24 hours or so. USD/JPY fell through several layers of support as well dropping to a low print on stops at 104.01 before bouncing to the 104.50 area. Stops under the 104.50 area were absorbed easily but offers were finally able to push the rate into the 104.20 area and once cleared the rate rebounded on profit-taking. Swissy had an identical day but fell through the 1.0380/90 area considered to be the monthly pivot point; closing under the 1.0350 area the rate looks for more weakness near-term but as in other rates analysts expect two-way trade. Looking ahead the next 24 hours I would expect the USD to consolidate within existing ranges. Look for more opportunity to short the USD on strength near-term.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9780
Resistance 2: 1.9720
Resistance 1: 1.9680
Latest New York: 1.9660
Support 1: 1.9600/1.9590
Support 2: 1.9550
Support 3: 1.9520
Comments
Long wick suggests bid pressure for two-way action coming, rumors of official demand lift rate off the lows around the 1.9590 area; failure to put on weight above the 1.9700 area suggests rate will consolidate lower. Lots of potential for day traders the next 24-48 hours as the rate is likely to stay range bound ahead of US data later in the week. Fundamentals still suggest a lower GBP and the failure to extend gains above the 1.9850 area so soon after Friday’s reversal argue for a continued downside after a bounce is possible. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Need a close below the 100 bar MA to build argument for the short but volatility is higher so expect a rally back to test the breakdown, expect continued whipsaw.
Not a lot to do but wait in my view.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 45.7
7:01pm GBP Consumer Confidence Index 68
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.50
Resistance 2: 105.20
Resistance 1: 104.80
Latest New York: 104.49
Support 1: 104.00
Support 2: 103.70/80
Support 3: 103.40/50
Comments
Rate broke into stops under the 104.20 area but no one was home and the rate recovered after the move. Not likely to see further weakness without an attempt at a rally in my view. Monday’s close leaves a doubt to the potential; expect lot’s of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. Stops the other side of 105.80 are in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short last week. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week.
Look for stops to be raised up by the longs this week and some should be resting under today’s lows around the 104.50 area (likely cleared with today’s drop)
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
9:00am JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
7:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/q -9.6%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
Banned
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 04/06/08
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• Bernanke comments roil the USD, active buying lifts into resistance
• Volumes die after initial lift
• USD falls back late to reverse gains.
Overnight Preview
• USD likely to drop further overnight
• Expect two-way action
Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 27.4%
• 8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change -30K
• 8:30am USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.5%
• 8:30am USD Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.0%
• 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 51.0
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories -8.8M
Summary
Today’s USD trading offered a bit of a surprise as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke openly about the desire for a higher USD on world markets. Initially sparking a massive short-covering rally the comments panicked some traders into aggressive buying. Better-positioned traders used the rally to open aggressive shorts or to add to existing shorts as the resulting rally failed to trigger any technical reasons to hold long USD. In fact, quite the opposite in my view. With the highest single volume seen in weeks on the day, none of the major pairs advanced beyond any near term technical resistance or support. As I mentioned this morning, the entire move was a sucker play and a bull-trap. Less-experienced forex traders panicked into a long USD position only to be caught in the market at the close with no gain. Although the ranges were impressive, the USD failed to hold gains across the board. High prints were sold and never challenged twice suggesting that the rates had no follow-through interest past the first rush of panic. For the record, GBP fell back to the 1.9600 area; low print at 1.9604 before sovereign demand emerged and the rate rallied back to close above the 1.9630 area making for a technical bottom. EURO fell through stops for a low print at 1.5410 but found solid bids to post a late rally back to the 1.5465 area. USD/JPY rallied on stops and active buying for a high print at 105.57 but found large offers and fell back under the 104.80 area on the close making for a large selling wick on the day. Swissy whipsawed as well, high prints at 1.0492 before dropping back to close a full handle lower at 1.03895 area. Across the board, the USD whipsawed everybody and once the dust settled—there was no change to the big picture making today a great day to sell USD. Look for tomorrow’s ADP private payrolls data to be unfriendly to the USD and the sell-off to resume in earnest.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5650
Resistance 2: 1.5620/30
Resistance 1: 1.5550
Latest New York: 1.5460
Support 1: 1.5410/20
Support 2: 1.5380
Support 3: 1.5330
Comments
Bernanke comments create a bear-trap sell-off; aggressive traders can get long again anytime as the rate fails to attract enough active selling. Late shorts getting creamed on the close. Volumes still only moderate but sellers can’t get the edge. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains and a limit order is the way to go I think. Weekly studies show buy signals as well. Support at 1.5500 gave way to light stops after the news but the rate found bids and now has crossed the opening range. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a long ways from here now. Look for model and momentum accounts active on the offer overnight Monday and/or Tuesday.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
3:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR Services PMI (r) 50.6
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2%
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.80
Resistance 2: 105.50/60
Resistance 1: 105.30
Latest New York: 105.20
Support 1: 104.20/30
Support 2: 103.70/80
Support 3: 103.40/50
Comments
Volumes died back to zero once the Bernanke comments were out; lack of follow-through suggests a total head-fake for the longs. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Rate is probing for stops on the other side of the 104.00 handle and first attempt cleared them all as the rate topped 105.20. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• Bernanke comments roil the USD, active buying lifts into resistance
• Volumes die after initial lift
• USD falls back late to reverse gains.
Overnight Preview
• USD likely to drop further overnight
• Expect two-way action
Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 27.4%
• 8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change -30K
• 8:30am USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.5%
• 8:30am USD Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.0%
• 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 51.0
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories -8.8M
Summary
Today’s USD trading offered a bit of a surprise as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke openly about the desire for a higher USD on world markets. Initially sparking a massive short-covering rally the comments panicked some traders into aggressive buying. Better-positioned traders used the rally to open aggressive shorts or to add to existing shorts as the resulting rally failed to trigger any technical reasons to hold long USD. In fact, quite the opposite in my view. With the highest single volume seen in weeks on the day, none of the major pairs advanced beyond any near term technical resistance or support. As I mentioned this morning, the entire move was a sucker play and a bull-trap. Less-experienced forex traders panicked into a long USD position only to be caught in the market at the close with no gain. Although the ranges were impressive, the USD failed to hold gains across the board. High prints were sold and never challenged twice suggesting that the rates had no follow-through interest past the first rush of panic. For the record, GBP fell back to the 1.9600 area; low print at 1.9604 before sovereign demand emerged and the rate rallied back to close above the 1.9630 area making for a technical bottom. EURO fell through stops for a low print at 1.5410 but found solid bids to post a late rally back to the 1.5465 area. USD/JPY rallied on stops and active buying for a high print at 105.57 but found large offers and fell back under the 104.80 area on the close making for a large selling wick on the day. Swissy whipsawed as well, high prints at 1.0492 before dropping back to close a full handle lower at 1.03895 area. Across the board, the USD whipsawed everybody and once the dust settled—there was no change to the big picture making today a great day to sell USD. Look for tomorrow’s ADP private payrolls data to be unfriendly to the USD and the sell-off to resume in earnest.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5650
Resistance 2: 1.5620/30
Resistance 1: 1.5550
Latest New York: 1.5460
Support 1: 1.5410/20
Support 2: 1.5380
Support 3: 1.5330
Comments
Bernanke comments create a bear-trap sell-off; aggressive traders can get long again anytime as the rate fails to attract enough active selling. Late shorts getting creamed on the close. Volumes still only moderate but sellers can’t get the edge. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains and a limit order is the way to go I think. Weekly studies show buy signals as well. Support at 1.5500 gave way to light stops after the news but the rate found bids and now has crossed the opening range. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a long ways from here now. Look for model and momentum accounts active on the offer overnight Monday and/or Tuesday.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
3:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR Services PMI (r) 50.6
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2%
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.80
Resistance 2: 105.50/60
Resistance 1: 105.30
Latest New York: 105.20
Support 1: 104.20/30
Support 2: 103.70/80
Support 3: 103.40/50
Comments
Volumes died back to zero once the Bernanke comments were out; lack of follow-through suggests a total head-fake for the longs. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Rate is probing for stops on the other side of the 104.00 handle and first attempt cleared them all as the rate topped 105.20. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 05/06/08
Read Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD reverses from highs overnight, ends mixed
• US data neutral to favorable but no follow-through
• Volumes lighter as traders are confused
Overnight Preview
• Traders expect two-way action with the majors to consolidate
• Likely the USD will remain technical until NFP on Friday
Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 374K
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 12:00pm USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks
Summary
Despite neutral-to-better US data today the USD was unable to extend gains from yesterday and ended the day mixed. Better against GBP, the Greenback pushed Cable into early lows at 1.9424 after clearing stops under the 1.9500 handle in Europe. Forex traders note that cross-spreaders are on the offer and most of the action was related to non-USD pairs. Although the rate was on the defense most of the day traders report nice bids from sovereign names supported on every dip. Offers are said to be building around the 1.5480 area with stops layered above suggesting that late shorts are playing a very tight stop. EURO fell back a bit but was supported as well on dips; low prints at 1.5418 were never challenged and as oil prices rose and fell so did EURO making for whippy forex trading. Traders note that Russian names were active matching other calls for sovereign interest on the lows. Analysts remind that the 1.5500 area likely to offer at least one pullback if the rate rallies but stops are just above suggesting late shorts are running tight risk control similar to GBP. USD/JPY had a tight two-way range today but still inside yesterday; finishing back above the 105.00 handle at around the 105.15 area; large bids said to be under the rate around the 104.40 area but lows at 104.52 left those unchallenged. Traders note that volumes were light on the day and that down action appears to have some teeth to it but caution that the stops are still higher; roughly the 105.50/60 area. Could have some whipsaw also overnight. Swissy was firm around the 1.0420 area to end the day after bids were uncovered in the 1.0350/60 area this morning. Positive ADP data lifted the USD off of the lows but offers above the 1.0440 area contained the rally. Traders expect overhead resistance to hold but the rally could extend to 1.0520 area near-term. In my view, the USD went nowhere today and with good news out of the way it is likely that NFP will disappoint. How the market trades the next 24 hours is important to the set-up; I am looking for quiet two-way action to end in USD weakness by this time tomorrow. I don’t think the Greenback has what it takes to lift into new weekly highs when facing down a serious piece of data later this week. Should be a quiet overnight session;
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9720
Resistance 2: 1.9680
Resistance 1: 1.9630/40
Latest New York: 1.9545
Support 1: 1.9520/30
Support 2: 1.9500
Support 3: 1.9480
Comments
After all was said and done today, the GBP traded mostly sideways on light volumes. Dips were bought by large names traders say. Stops drive rate into the lows but bids and rumors of sovereign buys hold rate at the 1.9450/60 area on light volume to start New York. Trading in sympathy with EURO continues and EURO strength likely to spillover eventually into cable. Stopped out of longs overnight; OK to look at the long side again as support may be forming at current levels; might want to wait 24 hours. Lots of potential for day traders the next 24-48 hours as the rate is likely to stay range bound ahead of US data later in the week. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Expect continued whipsaw around US news this morning. Bernanke comments a total head-fake in my view.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.80
Resistance 2: 105.50/60
Resistance 1: 105.30
Latest New York: 105.27
Support 1: 104.40/50
Support 2: 104.00/10
Support 3: 103.70/80
Comments
Rate is stuck in-range; no follow-through either way but longs getting nervous I think. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Model accounts on the bid last night a good sign the rate will fall back. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Read Daily Forex Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD reverses from highs overnight, ends mixed
• US data neutral to favorable but no follow-through
• Volumes lighter as traders are confused
Overnight Preview
• Traders expect two-way action with the majors to consolidate
• Likely the USD will remain technical until NFP on Friday
Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 374K
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 12:00pm USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks
Summary
Despite neutral-to-better US data today the USD was unable to extend gains from yesterday and ended the day mixed. Better against GBP, the Greenback pushed Cable into early lows at 1.9424 after clearing stops under the 1.9500 handle in Europe. Forex traders note that cross-spreaders are on the offer and most of the action was related to non-USD pairs. Although the rate was on the defense most of the day traders report nice bids from sovereign names supported on every dip. Offers are said to be building around the 1.5480 area with stops layered above suggesting that late shorts are playing a very tight stop. EURO fell back a bit but was supported as well on dips; low prints at 1.5418 were never challenged and as oil prices rose and fell so did EURO making for whippy forex trading. Traders note that Russian names were active matching other calls for sovereign interest on the lows. Analysts remind that the 1.5500 area likely to offer at least one pullback if the rate rallies but stops are just above suggesting late shorts are running tight risk control similar to GBP. USD/JPY had a tight two-way range today but still inside yesterday; finishing back above the 105.00 handle at around the 105.15 area; large bids said to be under the rate around the 104.40 area but lows at 104.52 left those unchallenged. Traders note that volumes were light on the day and that down action appears to have some teeth to it but caution that the stops are still higher; roughly the 105.50/60 area. Could have some whipsaw also overnight. Swissy was firm around the 1.0420 area to end the day after bids were uncovered in the 1.0350/60 area this morning. Positive ADP data lifted the USD off of the lows but offers above the 1.0440 area contained the rally. Traders expect overhead resistance to hold but the rally could extend to 1.0520 area near-term. In my view, the USD went nowhere today and with good news out of the way it is likely that NFP will disappoint. How the market trades the next 24 hours is important to the set-up; I am looking for quiet two-way action to end in USD weakness by this time tomorrow. I don’t think the Greenback has what it takes to lift into new weekly highs when facing down a serious piece of data later this week. Should be a quiet overnight session;
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.9720
Resistance 2: 1.9680
Resistance 1: 1.9630/40
Latest New York: 1.9545
Support 1: 1.9520/30
Support 2: 1.9500
Support 3: 1.9480
Comments
After all was said and done today, the GBP traded mostly sideways on light volumes. Dips were bought by large names traders say. Stops drive rate into the lows but bids and rumors of sovereign buys hold rate at the 1.9450/60 area on light volume to start New York. Trading in sympathy with EURO continues and EURO strength likely to spillover eventually into cable. Stopped out of longs overnight; OK to look at the long side again as support may be forming at current levels; might want to wait 24 hours. Lots of potential for day traders the next 24-48 hours as the rate is likely to stay range bound ahead of US data later in the week. Continue to expect a lot of sympathy trade with EURO; the cross-spreaders are having a field day with the Sterling crosses and I think the GBP may track EURO near-term. Expect continued whipsaw around US news this morning. Bernanke comments a total head-fake in my view.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m -1.1%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 105.80
Resistance 2: 105.50/60
Resistance 1: 105.30
Latest New York: 105.27
Support 1: 104.40/50
Support 2: 104.00/10
Support 3: 103.70/80
Comments
Rate is stuck in-range; no follow-through either way but longs getting nervous I think. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Hold shorts—nothing to do but wait as the bulls run for the exits. Model accounts on the bid last night a good sign the rate will fall back. Expect lots of two-way action and the rate is likely to cover a lot of the same ground twice the next 24-48 hours. This week’s data may be largely ignored until NFP out later in the week. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility later today.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
ForexAnalysis
Banned
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 06/06/08
Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe
• USD quiet ahead of NFP
• Technical trade in quiet volumes
• Traders sidelined
Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change -57K
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 5.1%
• 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2%
• 8:45am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
• 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4%
• 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.3B
Looking Ahead to Monday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.0%
Summary
The USD is mixed to start New York; overnight action was subdued with ranges modest as traders get ready for the NFP report due out shortly. The majors remained inside established ranges quietly trading from technical support to resistance with a wary eye to close-in stops. Although none of the pairs ventured into the area of potential stops analysts remind that there is option expiries, fib retracements, trend line S/R and pivot points all within a few pips of this week’s highs and lows; should the NFP surprise one way or the other this morning the USD could be in for a wild ride to end the week. As expected, offers were seen in both Cable and EURO into the highs overnight as well as bids into the lows as large traders took advantage of both sides. GBP had a high print in Asia at 1.9608 before offers capped the move; drifting to lows in Europe at 1.9535 before bids lifted the rate to the 1.9570 area in light trade to start New York. EURO made early highs on follow-on buying as expected for a high print at 1.5619 before offers ahead of stops said to be resting at 1.5625 capped the move leaving stops untouched for now. Lows were a respectable 1.5571 showing the bulls aren’t letting go of the market ahead of US data today. Forex Traders report large bids on the dip and so far they are being absorbed. If those offers are late shorts attempting to get in ahead of a break that would explain the close-in stops layered above the 1.5625 area. USD/JPY is firmer despite the USD weakness elsewhere; staying firm above the 106.00 handle for a high print at 106.29 but not finding stops said to be above the 106.25 area. Lows were 105.82 making for a tight range and the rate is 106.15 in early New York; the only pair higher on the day. Swissy again closed below the 100 bar MA yesterday and weakness is evident, lows at 1.0370 and the rate is near the lows at 1.0384 to start New York; traders say the rate feels “heavy” ahead of US news. In my view, the NFP will either draw aggressive selling of USD or aggressive buying—the market is set up to either quickly extend losses or reverse completely as the technical and fundamental picture both suggest a cross-roads to end the week. Order books are thin according to some desks as yesterday cleaned out a lot of positions. If NFP is down the middle the markets might do nothing but in my view that is less likely; either the short side will have a windfall today or we will be stopped out on a reversal.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5720
Resistance 2: 1.5680
Resistance 1: 1.5620/30
Latest New York: 1.5599
Support 1: 1.5500
Support 2: 1.5440/50
Support 3: 1.5390/1.5400
Comments
Rate doesn’t do much overnight; strong bids reported on dips but offers absorb suggesting a lot of “picking sides” is going on. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July; sentiment changes rapidly and a rally today will cement that view I think. Testing the weekly opening range late in the day Thursday suggests the rate will advance further on Friday; look for NFP to disappoint and add another leg higher. Rate initially lower on French name sales; Russians on the buy side. Recovery quickly suggests the rate is finally running out of offers. Hold longs and get ready to add on a recovery. Volumes light overnight traders say. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a lot closer now that the sentiment is changing.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 16.7B
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 107.00
Resistance 2: 106.80
Resistance 1: 106.40/50
Latest New York: 106.25
Support 1: 105.50/60
Support 2: 105.10/20
Support 3: 104.80
Comments
Rate firms overnight but that is likely just drift; everybody waiting on NFP this morning. Offers by exporters said to be ready at the 106.30 area layered to 106.50 with option barrier at 106.50 also so the upside may be limited. Likely this rally is done near-term but the jury is out on how much a pullback will be bought; so far light bids are supporting. Stops are said to be under the 105.50 area. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility after NFP shortly. Look for the news to scare out the longs by active selling to end the week.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:00am JPY Leading Index m/m 18.2%
3:00am JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -8.3%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe
• USD quiet ahead of NFP
• Technical trade in quiet volumes
• Traders sidelined
Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change -57K
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 5.1%
• 8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2%
• 8:45am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
• 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4%
• 3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.3B
Looking Ahead to Monday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.0%
Summary
The USD is mixed to start New York; overnight action was subdued with ranges modest as traders get ready for the NFP report due out shortly. The majors remained inside established ranges quietly trading from technical support to resistance with a wary eye to close-in stops. Although none of the pairs ventured into the area of potential stops analysts remind that there is option expiries, fib retracements, trend line S/R and pivot points all within a few pips of this week’s highs and lows; should the NFP surprise one way or the other this morning the USD could be in for a wild ride to end the week. As expected, offers were seen in both Cable and EURO into the highs overnight as well as bids into the lows as large traders took advantage of both sides. GBP had a high print in Asia at 1.9608 before offers capped the move; drifting to lows in Europe at 1.9535 before bids lifted the rate to the 1.9570 area in light trade to start New York. EURO made early highs on follow-on buying as expected for a high print at 1.5619 before offers ahead of stops said to be resting at 1.5625 capped the move leaving stops untouched for now. Lows were a respectable 1.5571 showing the bulls aren’t letting go of the market ahead of US data today. Forex Traders report large bids on the dip and so far they are being absorbed. If those offers are late shorts attempting to get in ahead of a break that would explain the close-in stops layered above the 1.5625 area. USD/JPY is firmer despite the USD weakness elsewhere; staying firm above the 106.00 handle for a high print at 106.29 but not finding stops said to be above the 106.25 area. Lows were 105.82 making for a tight range and the rate is 106.15 in early New York; the only pair higher on the day. Swissy again closed below the 100 bar MA yesterday and weakness is evident, lows at 1.0370 and the rate is near the lows at 1.0384 to start New York; traders say the rate feels “heavy” ahead of US news. In my view, the NFP will either draw aggressive selling of USD or aggressive buying—the market is set up to either quickly extend losses or reverse completely as the technical and fundamental picture both suggest a cross-roads to end the week. Order books are thin according to some desks as yesterday cleaned out a lot of positions. If NFP is down the middle the markets might do nothing but in my view that is less likely; either the short side will have a windfall today or we will be stopped out on a reversal.
EUR/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5720
Resistance 2: 1.5680
Resistance 1: 1.5620/30
Latest New York: 1.5599
Support 1: 1.5500
Support 2: 1.5440/50
Support 3: 1.5390/1.5400
Comments
Rate doesn’t do much overnight; strong bids reported on dips but offers absorb suggesting a lot of “picking sides” is going on. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July; sentiment changes rapidly and a rally today will cement that view I think. Testing the weekly opening range late in the day Thursday suggests the rate will advance further on Friday; look for NFP to disappoint and add another leg higher. Rate initially lower on French name sales; Russians on the buy side. Recovery quickly suggests the rate is finally running out of offers. Hold longs and get ready to add on a recovery. Volumes light overnight traders say. Favor the long side on dips; upside bias still remains. The bottom is in my view, Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a lot closer now that the sentiment is changing.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 16.7B
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
USD/JPY Daily
Resistance 3: 107.00
Resistance 2: 106.80
Resistance 1: 106.40/50
Latest New York: 106.25
Support 1: 105.50/60
Support 2: 105.10/20
Support 3: 104.80
Comments
Rate firms overnight but that is likely just drift; everybody waiting on NFP this morning. Offers by exporters said to be ready at the 106.30 area layered to 106.50 with option barrier at 106.50 also so the upside may be limited. Likely this rally is done near-term but the jury is out on how much a pullback will be bought; so far light bids are supporting. Stops are said to be under the 105.50 area. Expect more selling on overnight strength. Longs likely rolling stops up underneath close-in so expect volatility after NFP shortly. Look for the news to scare out the longs by active selling to end the week.
Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
1:00am JPY Leading Index m/m 18.2%
3:00am JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -8.3%
Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
Also Check our Forex brokers section
DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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