Forex4you Technical Analysis

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 13 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The "bulls" breached resistance at 1.3060/80 and level 1.3150 is about to be tested as the next resistance. Its breakout will indicate a medium-term "bullish" trend, like it has been mentioned in the previous analysis. Indicators say in favor of a breakout and suggest to expect the next stop at level 1.3230/50, considered previously as the key level on the way up. If it's breached, we'll be anticipating a strong "bullish" potential and levels 1.3440-1.3460 tests in the near future. At the same time, the above mentioned levels are strong enough to hinder growth and bring the trading back down with local minimum tests at 1.2795, 1.2700/10. Reversal below support 1.3080/60 should be considered at the obvious sign for that.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

Looking at the current rally it is debatable now whether is an Elliot 4th wave of the fall since the 4th Jan. Firstly it has extended into the territory of wave 2 and it is also now much longer than would normally be expected. The only other possibility is that it is part of an ending diagonal. It may be that the larger cyclical forces at work are placing more than average buying pressure on the pair and that could explain the sudden extended rally and missing 5th.

There is overhead resistance currently from an upper channel line drawn down from the middle of December and there may be a rebound down to 108.75 initially and then lower if here is a break down through the trend-line up from the 10th January lows. The monthly pivot is at 109.45 not far above the current level so any further upside may stall there.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price breached level 1.5680/60 and continued to rise, bringing forward the expectations of level 1.5840/50 test, mentioned in the prior analysis. The price rose to 1.5780, meeting a strong resistance there, so it currently consolidates at level 1.5740/30. Indicators are turned up, suggesting further growth to 1.5840/50. At the same time, the price has recently entered the range, full of strong resistance/support levels, which may give us reasons to expect quite a long-term consolidation within this narrow range. To correct their positions, the "bears" have to drag the price below level 1.5660/50 and fix there. In this case we'll be expecting a revesal to the "bearish trend".

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 14 Janauary 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The rally continues higher. It broke the 4th January highs this morning and rallied up to 1.3450. There is considerable resistance at this level from old highs reached on the 3rd and 14th December, and the 4th and 14th January, completing almost cyclical 2-weekly tops, and also from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. It is possible there could be a correction from here but before that there is the chance of a final rally. We look like we are in the process of completing an Elliot wave 4 of the impulse up this morning. Once complete it will lead to a final rally in the exchange rate probably matching the recent highs. A break of the 1.3325 lows, however would indicate a larger bearish move was underway instead.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 17 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Something of a reversal occurred at the 1.3250 highs and the exchange rate has fallen sharply overnight. There is a head and shoulders top pattern on the hourly chart which has broken its neckline and has a downside target of 1.3180. This coincides with a support level at 1.3170. In Elliot terms this may be a wave 4 correction of the rise from the 10th, so once the exchange rate finds support it may rally back up to the highs again in a final wave 5.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

We are probably in a 4th Elliot wave of the rise from the 10th Jan lows. It may have further to go; it may have finished - it has completed the minimum requirement by crossing to below the MACD zero-line. This could imply wave 5 up may be near at hand. There is also support from the trend-line from the 10th Jan lows and the exchange rate is posting a hammer candlestick on the hourly. There was a bullish weekly engulfing candlestick last week which has upside potential although this must be mitigated in the short term by yesterday’s hanging man and today’s confirmatory drop. Eventually wave 5 will rally, probably reaching the recent highs and surpassing them a little, with an upside target of 111.25 where the monthly pivot rests. If wave 4 extends it might be expected to reach support at 108.90 – although there may be a small recovery to 110.10 initially.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 18 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The pair yesterday's decline turned out to be a correction within the up trend. The price recommenced its growth, so the trading is currently carried out at level 1.3420/30, very close to the local maximum. Indicators turned abruptly up, suggesting to expect further growth. Nevertheless, resistance levels are strong, so reversal to support 1.3240/50, i.e further sideways correction, is also a possibility. Range 1.3500-1.3450 breakout with the following fixation above will indicate a strong "bullish" potential, which has all chance to initiate growth to 1.3780/1.3800. Support 1.3080/60 breakout may trigger a reversal to the "bearish" trend.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Assumptions of the previous analysis came true - strong resistance range at level 1.5950/30 didn't manage to reverse the trend, it had been easily breached, opening the way to a new barrier at level 1.6050/60, where the trading still resides. Indicators are turned up, which makes yesterday's scenario quite a possibility - the price is very likely to rise to 1.6270/60, although to make it happen the price should first fix above 1.6060/60. Reversal below to 1.5950/40 will stop the growth, initiating another correction within the range with support at level 1.5930/00. Falldown below level 1.5650/80, which is also a key support, will be a signal to the reversal to a down trend.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair fell yesterday but found support overnight and then began rallying again as anticipated. The rally is probably an Elliot wave 5 of the whole move up which began at the January 10 lows. Most wave 5’s of this size surpass the high of wave 3 and travel on average 20 or so points higher, giving a target of 111.18. But the R1 monthly pivot at nearby 111.29 would also be expected to provide resistance to the rally, so it is possible the rally will stall at somewhere in between these two levels, perhaps 111.25 before falling again in a correction.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 19 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair has probably put in a top. The wave structure up from the 10th January lows now looks complete with 5 waves and 5 within the 5th. Obviously it may unfold a bit higher but it is unlikely to be much. So how far could it fall? I would be looking to 1.3350 as an immediate initial target, where there is support and resistance from old highs and lows and the 23.6% Fibonacci line of the rally off the Jan 10 lows. After that, the next target might be the support and resistance line at 1.3260 or even lower down to the monthly pivot and 50 day MA at 1.3065 depending on the strength of the move down.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair rose as anticipated and it may now have put in a top at the 111.15 highs. The Eliot waves are counting complete indicating a correction will follow. If the pair falls as anticipated it might be expected to reach the 109.50 level where there is support and resistance, the monthly pivot and a 38.2% Fibonacci line of the Jan 10 move. A further rally is also possible, with the monthly pivot at 111.30 and then support and resistance at 111.50 as possible targets.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 20 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price continued to correct within the current maximums and failed to breach level 1.3500 and fix above, after which it pulled back downwards to 1.3430/20. However, the price is currently rising again, residing at the moment around level 1.3470/80. Indicators are turning up again, although MACD divergence suggests to be cautious and be ready for the upcoming large-scale correction. Besides, the "bears" have failed to bring the trading beyond the up channel trend line (blue lines), which indicates that the "bullish" trend is currently stronger. Range 1.3500-1.3450 breakout and fixation above will initiate further growth, possibly even to 1.3780/1.3800. Nevertheless, there is a strong resistance on the way up - level 1.3580, wherefrom the correction, MACD has warned of, may begin. Support 1.3150/40 breakout will trigger a reversal to a down trend.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price remained within the range 1.6060 - 1.5930/00, like it has been mentioned in the previous analysis, and the trading is currently carried out at 1.5990/1.6000. Indicators are neutral, although they seem to prefer a down trend more. No significant changes have been made to the structure since the last analysis, so the scenario is the same - sideways trading within the range 1.6060 - 1.5930/00 with a possible expanding to support 1.5840. As for a medium-term outlook, the up trend is considered as dominating. Further growth to 1.6270/60 is anticipated.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Techncial Analysis 21 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

It’s curious but this pair looks like it has reached a top and – according to my count – has completed 5 waves up from the Jan 10 lows and yet it still stubbornly continues to rise. Today’s rally on low volume, however, is a sign of lack of conviction and could presage a decline. But the latest wave up from yesterday’s 1.3400 lows is too complex to indentify and gives us no clues as to future action. The 1.3575 50% fib line and the R1 pivot at 1.3590 may both provide overhead resistance high turning points. When the decline starts expect support on the way down at 1.3490 and then 1.3390.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Fears that consolidation range might extend to a lower support turned out to be correct. The price tested level 1.5840/35 and is currently retracing upwards. The trading is carried out at 1.5920/30. Indicators are making slack attempts to reverse to growth, but the readings are unclear, which indicates uncertainty in the market. Sideways correction within recently formed levels is likely to continue. The "bulls" seem to have more chances to keep their dominating positions in a medium-term, so we may expect the price to grow to 1.6270/60. Fall below 1.5750/40 will be the first sign of the weakening "bullish" trend, and support 1.5640/50 breakout will become the final signal.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 24 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

We have had another retracement this morning which looks like it still has lower to go. A possible target for the drop could be trend-line support at 1.3525. After that it is likely the uptrend will resume perhaps reaching the substantial resistance levels in the 1.37s. There is also a small possibility that this fall is part of a larger reversal which could break lower and target support and resistance in the 1.3440s.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 25 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair pulled back and continued rising yesterday as anticipated. It has now reached a substantial support and resistance level at around 1.3680 which is just short of the old major trend-line from the June lows which lies at 1.3720. It has begun correcting quite steeply from there and there is a rare and bearish Demark buy setup signalled today. It is probable the correction has further to go and will reach the trend-line for the whole move up from January 10th at 1.3580, before perhaps reaching 1.3535 and then 1.3450. After that however the bullish trend should resume.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

The move down today is steep and probably has further to go. As I said yesterday it could very well descend to retest the old trend-line from the June lows in the 110s as so often happens after a break. There is also further support there from the 50 day MA and a support and resistance line. Alternatively, there is still a chance of a rally, particularly from the pivotal point where we are now at 112.00 with a target at 114.00, although the strength of the move down makes that less likely.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 27 January 2011

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair has risen to touch the underside of the old trend-line from the June lows. It has been unable to penetrate above however, and this morning a sharp sell-off brought prices down to 1.3637 breaking the trend-line of the move from Jan 10 lows in the process. A recovery rally has brought prices back into the range in the 1.3680s. I think it is unlikely the move down is complete and a ‘C’ leg might unfold with a target of 1.3610 where the S2 daily pivot resides. Alternatively a continuation higher might reach the top of the range at 1.3725.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Seems like the previous assumptions have been correct and the price is very likely to grow to 1.6270/60 in a medium-term. The price returned to the uptrend channel sector, which initiated the trend line correction (blue dashed line, blue line). At the moment, the price resides around levels 1.5930/35. Indicators seem to grow further, so the "bullish" trend to the above mentioned target levels is very likely to continue, although resistance 1.6060/70 breakout would be a more convincing signal for that. However, to breach this barrier, the "bulls" have grow above the range 1.5960-1.5930 first. On the other hand, if the price breaches and holds below support 1.5750/40, we'll be expecting the "bearish" trend to become dominating.

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

Support level 82.00 held back the "bearish" attempts to decline. Besides that, thanks to the fundamental-political information on Japan's economy, the price jumped abruptly up and it currently resides at 82.70/80, passing levels 83.00/10. Indicators are changing their readings, indicating transition to "bullish", which gives reasons to consider current growth as a good signal for the reversal to the up trend and further growth to levels 84.00/83.90, mentioned in the previous analysis.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.