Forex4you Technical Analysis

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forex4you

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair is probably close to completing the recent correction and resuming is descent. It is possible that over the next day it will drop back down to either 1.2620, or the 1.2580 lows, possibly even as far as 1.2550 as minuette wave 5 unfolds. This last wave should complete the whole minor degree move down from the 6th August highs. It is probable the following correction of that whole move will reach at least to the 50% retracement mark at 1.2960. There is also a small chance that this correction may already have begun.




GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair looks like it is forming a rare widening ending diagonal pattern. Prices may come down quite far from their current correction highs but it is probable that they will fall to near or beyond the recent lows. An initial target might be 1.5405, followed by the lows at 1.5375 and then perhaps even support at 1.5280. After that there should be a strong rally back up to at least the 50% retracement of the whole move down since the 6th August highs at 1.5690, if not as far as the 61.8% retracement at 1.5750.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 
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Forex4you Technical Analysis 30/08/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

As long as the 1.2674 lows hold then prices should continue higher reaching 1.2920 eventually, if not 1.2950. At that level they will encounter a cluster of resistance from the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the broken trend-line of the move up from the June lows and they will probably reverse and resume their downtrend.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Attempt to break support 1.5470 and commence the “bearish” scenario failed. The level was breached, but the price pulled back to consolidation range 1.5550 – 1.5470, where it still resides. Indicators are uncertain and don’t show any particular direction. Expectations, mentioned in the previous comments are still relevant – key resistance level 1.5550 breakout and fixation above will suggest the growth. But only level 1.5670/80 breakout will give a final signal to the “bullish” moods and anticipate levels 1.5790/1.5800 tests in the nearest time. The “bearish” trend will be prevailing if the price falls below 1.5470. In this case we’ll be expecting support level 1.5340/30 test. Support 1.5500/1.5490 breakout will be an early indicator of a downtrend.



USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The “bulls” breached resistance 85.10- 84.90 and even tested 85.80/90, but they didn’t manage to fix there, so the price is currently pulling back downwards and the trading is held at level 84.70/75. Indicators reversed to a downward movement, which suggests further price fall. On the other hand, there is support 84.40/50 on the way, which can become a pivot point. At the same time, complicated yen’s financial and political situation suggests a possible range trading, limited by levels 84.40/84.90 – 85.00/10, with a high risk of support range descending to 84.00/83.90. As for the middle-term outlook, the “bullish” mood is most likely to be dominating.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 31/08/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Prices sank lower yesterday but there was a sharp bullish push on the hourly chart this morning. This may signal the next wave up, which is probably the C wave of a zig-zag pattern which is correcting the 5-wave move down from the Aug 6th highs.

C could end at significant resistance highs at 1.2920 and this is also the terminus of the wave 4 of lesser degree –a common endpoint for corrections. A more conservative target could be 1.2815, where wave C would be exactly equal to wave A, their most common relationship.

There is also the possibility prices will push even lower and break the 1.2625 lows. This could mean wave B was still unfolding and we were in a flat correction instead.


GBP/USD: Technical Analysis


Support 1.5500/1.5490 breakout was an early signal to a downward movement and suggested strengthening of the “bearish” potential, as well as high-possibility for a downtrend scenario.
The price fall below 1.5470 confirmed the “bearish” power, and the trading is currently carried on at 1.5390 with the “bears” trying to break it and continue their trend. Indicators turned downwards, which gives grounds to expect the “bearish” attempts to be successful. Nevertheless, only the breakout of level 1.5380, which is a previous local minimum and a strong support, will give sound grounds to anticipate target level 1.5340/30 testing. Key resistance 1.5550 breakout and the following upward movement will suggest a reversal to the “bullish” moods. In this case levels 1.5790/1.5800 are likely to be tested in the nearest time.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

forex4you

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 13/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair remains range bound and will probably continue so for some time. The strong rally today is probably a correction of the move down from the 6th September, of which it has retraced the standard 61.8% so there is a chance of an imminent roll-over occurring. Although a small continuation to the 50 Day MA at 1.2855 is also possible. When the next leg down starts it may reach 1.2735 initially and then perhaps trend-line support at 1.2720. After several more days the sideways market will probably end, giving way to a higher degree decline which should make new lows.



AUD/USD: Technical Analysis

For this pair, the April 0.9353 highs are important because if they hold then prices should roll over soon and a major decline could reach 0.89 first and then probably lower. A break above would imply a more bullish outlook particularly if the 0.9405 highs are also broken. It is more likely, however, that prices will fall before breaching either.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

forex4you

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 20/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair has corrected the rally up to the 1.3120 highs. The retracement is probably an Elliot wave 4 which probably has further to go. It could end at the area of the 4th wave of lesser degree at around 1.2975 where there is also Fibonacci and moving average support. After 4 completes, wave 5 should rally back up to the area of the 1.31 highs.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price tested target at level 1.5340/30, mentioned in the previous commentary, and reversed to growth afterwards. Key resistance 1.5550 breakout, also mentioned earlier, was a signal to the “bullish” moods in the market. The trading raised to resistance 1.5730 and is currently carried on at levels 1.5650/30. Indicators are likely to turn downwards, which also suggests continuation of a downward movement, that began at the end of the last week. If the “bears” manage to fix the price below support 1.5650/40, support level 1.5570/60 testing will be probably observed in the nearest future. Falldown below 1.5510/20 will be the signal for reversal to the medium-term “bearish” trend with forthcoming minimum levels 1.5340/20 testing. Nevertheless, the price still resides within the upward channel (blue lines) and the “bulls” are dominating, so there’s rather a possibility for the growth to the earlier mentioned resistance levels 1.5790- 1.5800.



AUD/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair has rallied up to above the crucial 0.9405 resistance highs and whilst the rally appears overbought it probably still has a little further to go, maybe as high as 0.9550 where if it reaches that level, it will encounter channel line resistance from the channel line drawn from the august lows. It is unlikely prices will go above 0.9612 as this is the R3 pivot level and it is very rarely breached. On the hourly chart prices are trading within a range and they are currently at the range highs with a good chance they will drop to the range lows at 0.9350 temporarily, before the next leg up.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 23/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Resistance level 1.3390/1.3400 didn’t let the “bulls” continue their growth, so we currently observe a pullback downwards with the price at 1.3340/50. Assumptions about possible consolidation around levels 1.3390 – 1.3250/60, mentioned in the previous comment, seem to be correct. Indicators show a possible reverse downwards, which gives even more grounds for such scenario, so that correction, that we currently observe, may extend and reach support level 1.3250/60. Expectations of an uptrend with target 1.3520/40 are still in force in case the trading fixes above 1.3400. Support 1.3200/1.3180 breakout will indicate the weakening of an uptrend potential.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair is probably in the process of topping out. Whilst it is possible prices may go a little higher, perhaps to resistance from pivot at 1.5750 a substantial correction is probably near at hand. The move up which started at the September 7th lows has met the minimum requirements for a completed market cycle. Whilst it would be prudent to wait for price to confirm or for a sell signal from the overbought RSI and Stochastics it is highly probable that the pair will fall soon. The correction could go as far back as the 21st September lows, at 1.5530 where there is a natural line of support and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 27/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

This pair has reached highs in the 1.3490s and is now rolling over. It is still too early to say definitively but we may have reached a significant top. We have nearly reached the Fibonacci 50% level of the decline from December ’09. I count 5 waves up in this September move, with alternation between strong 2nd wave (6th – 8th) and weak 4th (17th – 20th), making a complete Elliot cycle. There are Demark sell signals on the daily charts of 2 other major Euro pairs, pointing towards considerable euro weakness and EUR/GBP is a few pips shy of the rarely broken R3 monthly pivot. This correction could be expected to initially reach trend-line support at 1.3340, before falling to stronger support at 1.3280.

It is also possible we have not topped, in which case a further rally could reach the 50% Fibonacci at 1.3515; or higher to 1.3550 which is the point and figure target from the August lows.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price fixed above 1.5700, which indicated the “bullish” moods in the market. Afterwards, the price rose to the new local maximums at 1.5830/40 and met strong resistance, which prevented its further growth. The trading is currently held at level 1.5820/10. Indicators show some weakening of the “bulls”, which gives reasons to anticipate further consolidation around previously reached levels with a possible extending of support range 1.5800/1.5780. The growth is more likely to continue with the following level 1.5840/45 breakout and growth to 1.5910/20. Nevertheless, in case the price drops downwards and breaches support 1.5700, the moods will most likely change and we’ll be expecting a reversal to a downtrend. The first signal for this scenario would be a fall below 1.5740.



USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The price hike from support 84.40/50 did take place, but the pair went back downwards and presently consolidates at 84.20/10. The threat of BoJ intervention is currently the main driver for the pair. Nevertheless, the fact that the price came close to 61.8 fibo of the previous growth indicates a serious support. If support range 84.00/10 – 83.90 is breached downwards, we’ll be expecting a possible fall to the new minimums. It’s worth reminding though, that the Japanese government is still planning on interventions, so the yen’s descending will bring to nought previous success in trading the yen.



EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair has rallied strongly up to resistance highs in the 113.70s but now looks in danger of dropping. There is a Demark sell setup on the daily chart and we are probably near the end of a complete Elliot cycle which likely started on September 8th, with the 5th of the 5th unfolding now. This could reach 114.00 or possibly to trend-line resistance at 114.30 but after that it is possible a sizeable decline will begin, initially finding support at the 112.15 lows and then perhaps falling even as far as 110.55 to meet the 50 day MA.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

forex4you

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 29/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Resistance at level 1.3540/20, mentioned earlier as the growth target couldn’t hold back the pair’s movement. The pair pulled back and currently resides at 1.3580/90. Nevertheless, indicators keep forming MACD divergence, which is seen as a signal to a possible large0scale correction. The bulls still have chances to continue their upward movement and raise the price to 1.3700/1.3680, wherefrom the price will start its falldown. Support level 1.3200/1.3160 breakout will indicate a reversal to the “bearish” moods.



EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair is in a sideways move, consolidating before the next move higher. Initially it will probably fall a little further to the bottom of the range at 112.90, then possibly lower to 112.15 if the decline is severe. After that I see a rally taking prices back up to 115.00, which is the point and figure target from the August lows, or even 116.95 possibly where they will meet resistance from the R2 pivot.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Resistance level 1.5920/10, mentioned earlier as the target with the following large-scale correction, prevents the price from further growth. Having tested level 1.5905/00, the trading is pulling back downwards, and it’s now being carried on in a narrow range. Such state of affairs might be the expected correction itself, but its realization should be large-scale in terms of time, rather then a price pullback. Indicators show the “bullish” activity slowdown, but they don’t give any signals for a reversal – this fact gives reasons to assume further sideways movement with the following reversal to growth. Level 1.5920/10 breakout will indicate a raise to the new local maximums at 1.5970/80. Support falldown below 1.5700 will be a signal for a medium-term mood change. Level 1.5740 breakout will indicate the weakening of the “bullish” (uptrend) potential.



USD/CAD: Technical Analysis

This pair has been forming a triangle on the daily chart since May. We may have now finished the final E leg and it is possible that an upside breakout could follow. The particularly low ADX at 11.89 is often a sign a rapid volatile move is about to happen. Notice also the ‘shake out’ move of the 22nd with a new low immediately followed by a ‘new’ high; this sort of thing often presages a change in trend. Watch for a break above the clustered MA’s at 1.0350 and then a speedy run up to resistance highs at 1.0685.



USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The price breached support 84.00/10, 61.8 Fibonacci of the previous growth, and now level 83.50 holds back the “bears” from further movement. Indicators are turned downwards, so there’s a chance that the trading fall to the new minimums at 83.00-82.90. At the same time, there’s also a possibility for another BoJ intervention, so the situation is rather unclear and it would be a good idea to pospone trading for some period of time and see.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

forex4you

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 29/09/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Resistance at level 1.3540/20, mentioned earlier as the growth target couldn’t hold back the pair’s movement. The pair pulled back and currently resides at 1.3580/90. Nevertheless, indicators keep forming MACD divergence, which is seen as a signal to a possible large0scale correction. The bulls still have chances to continue their upward movement and raise the price to 1.3700/1.3680, wherefrom the price will start its falldown. Support level 1.3200/1.3160 breakout will indicate a reversal to the “bearish” moods.



EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair is in a sideways move, consolidating before the next move higher. Initially it will probably fall a little further to the bottom of the range at 112.90, then possibly lower to 112.15 if the decline is severe. After that I see a rally taking prices back up to 115.00, which is the point and figure target from the August lows, or even 116.95 possibly where they will meet resistance from the R2 pivot.



GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Resistance level 1.5920/10, mentioned earlier as the target with the following large-scale correction, prevents the price from further growth. Having tested level 1.5905/00, the trading is pulling back downwards, and it’s now being carried on in a narrow range. Such state of affairs might be the expected correction itself, but its realization should be large-scale in terms of time, rather then a price pullback. Indicators show the “bullish” activity slowdown, but they don’t give any signals for a reversal – this fact gives reasons to assume further sideways movement with the following reversal to growth. Level 1.5920/10 breakout will indicate a raise to the new local maximums at 1.5970/80. Support falldown below 1.5700 will be a signal for a medium-term mood change. Level 1.5740 breakout will indicate the weakening of the “bullish” (uptrend) potential.



USD/CAD: Technical Analysis

This pair has been forming a triangle on the daily chart since May. We may have now finished the final E leg and it is possible that an upside breakout could follow. The particularly low ADX at 11.89 is often a sign a rapid volatile move is about to happen. Notice also the ‘shake out’ move of the 22nd with a new low immediately followed by a ‘new’ high; this sort of thing often presages a change in trend. Watch for a break above the clustered MA’s at 1.0350 and then a speedy run up to resistance highs at 1.0685.



USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The price breached support 84.00/10, 61.8 Fibonacci of the previous growth, and now level 83.50 holds back the “bears” from further movement. Indicators are turned downwards, so there’s a chance that the trading fall to the new minimums at 83.00-82.90. At the same time, there’s also a possibility for another BoJ intervention, so the situation is rather unclear and it would be a good idea to pospone trading for some period of time and see.



Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

forex4you

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Forex4you Technical Analysis 24/11/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The bears proved to be dominating, so the price declined not only to target level 1.3380/90, it went even lower, to 1.3280/90. We currently observe a slight pullback upwards and the trading is carried on at 1.3350/60. Nevertheless, the indicators don't seem to change their direction and reverse upwards, so the bearish trend will most likely continue. The current pullback upwards, by the way, may be considered as the beginning of a sideways correction in the range 1.3400 – 1.3280, since level 1.3280 had proved to be strong both as resistance and support. As for reversal to growth, ascending above 1.3490/1.3500 will probably make the bearish trend questionable, but not more than that. The bears presently have the leading positions in the market, so the price will most likely continue to decline, after the sideways correction is over.



EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

There is the possibility we are witnessing a bounce off the 110.30 lows with a possible upside target at the 111.45 level where there is a resistance line and the 50 day MA, although a possible pullback to 110.55 might occur before the rally really gets going. Further gains after that might target the 112.20 level where price will meet the trend-line from the September lows. More downside could reach the monthly pivot at 108.95.




Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 
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