Forex4you Technical Analysis

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 25/11/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The exchange rate has bottomed and consolidated into a triangle pattern with downside potential. A break lower, out of the pattern, would target support at 1.3250 initially and then perhaps even the 1.30s. There is also a chance the triangle could break higher, wrong footing market participants who were short, with an upside target of 1.3435.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair fell to support in the 110s before bouncing back up a band of resistance at 111.60. It is now pushing against the trend-line of the descent from the November 22 high. There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern at the lows which if it breaks higher could reach 112.75. Further downside, on the other hand, might be expected to go just beyond the recent lows, to perhaps 110.10.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 26/11/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has pushed down through an important trend-line drawn from the June lows. If the break is confirmed by a further decisive move then the exchange rate might fall to the 200 day MA at 1.3135 initially and then perhaps to 1.2930 eventually. There has also been a break below the cloud on the Ichimoku chart this morning and if the descent since the 5th November highs is a zigzag then the downside target for the C leg is also in the 1.29s. Given the substantial downside already today, however, there may be a pullback to around 1.3250 first before any further falls.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

Since bottoming a few days ago the euro-yen has made something of a drunkard’s walk across the chart: first veering up to the 111.90s first and then suddenly back down to the 110.90s where it is around about now. I think it will probably continue falling as the wave down from the highs made of the 22nd is missing a 5th wave, which could be unfolding right now. If it is of average length then it should slightly surpass the lows at 110.30 to perhaps bottom at 110.00 – although there is support at 110.50 too so it could end there.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 29/11/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The exchange rate has fallen to the trend-line up from the June lows where it has found some temporary support. It now appears to be oscillating between trend-line support and a support and resistance line at 1.3310. If it breaks above this line it could go higher correcting the move down from the November 5th highs. It could reach up to 1.3370 initially where there is the S2 monthly pivot and then, if higher to 1.3435. A less probable although quite decisive break of the trend-line down however could target the S3 pivot at 1.3115 for support initially.

USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The "bullish" attempts to fix the trading above resistance 83.50/60 ended sucessfully, so the price continued its growth, but only up to resistance 84.00/10, mentioned earlier. We currently observe attempts to breach this barrier on the way up and the trading is carried on around levels 84.00/05. Indicators begin to show a decline, which gives reasons to expect a longer consolidation on the current levels, and MACD divergence is a good proof that these assumptions are correct. There is a chance that the sideways range will stretch to support 83.60/50. Nevertheless, it's the "bullish" moods, that seem to be dominating in the market. If the currently tested barrier is breached, the price will grow further, to resistance 84.60/80. Reversal down and a fall below 83.60/50 will indicate a soon end of the "bullish trend".

EUR/JPY: technical analysis

The exchange rate appears to be consolidating in a triangle pattern. The D wave down is probably unfolding now with a slight possibility of some movement lower to perhaps the triangle border at 110.70 before completion and then an upswing in wave E back up to the triangle highs at 111.70. A more decisive break down earlier could take the exchange rate to between the minimum objective for the triangle at 109.50 and a tight support grouping at 109.00.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 30/11/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Yesterday the EUR/USD decisively broke down through a major trend-line from the June lows. This marks a significant change in trend and the decline will probably continue lower, perhaps till it reaches a support and resistance line at 1.2940 initially and then probably further. The move down off the November 5 highs looks like a zigzag and if wave C is the same length as A - which it is likely to be at the least - then it will most probably continue falling till 1.2850 if not lower. Nevertheless there is a chance of a bounce off 1.3000 given the psychological importance of the level but it should be short-lived and eventually rollover and continue lower.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair has fallen to support at 109.00 from both the monthly pivot and a line of support and resistance. It should bounce from here and may come back up to 109.50 or perhaps even 110.00 at a push. Eventually, however, I see more downside given the large zigzag down from the 21st highs appears incomplete and could yield more downside, reaching 107.15 for leg A to equal C or even lower probably.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 1/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The euro-dollar pair found a temporary bottom yesterday at 1.2960 and has been rising since then reaching back up to 1.3090. Given the weakness of the recent pullback I think the countertrend rally could extend further, possibly to the 200 Day MA at 1.3125 or to the underside of the trend-line up from June at 1.3275ish. After that, however, it will probably rollover and make new lows.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair has put in a temporary bottom at 108.50 and since then has been rising. I see a pullback in the short term, perhaps to 109.35 and if the pullback is particularly strong then it could be the beginning of a resumption of the trend down, otherwise I think it will base and there will be a final rally higher to the 110s possibly even 110.80 and the monthly pivot. The move down from the November 5 highs looks like a zigzag in which Wave C may not have completed unfolding because it is currently shorter than the average. To reach average length it would have to decline to past 107.20 point (equality with A).

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 03/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Indications are that the countertrend rally or Elliot wave 4 in EUR/USD is probably nearing an end. Within the rally we appear to be in a sideways consolidation currently, like a triangle and the next move depends on the direction of the breakout from that range. It is possible that it could start falling very soon but there is a good probability there will be a final thrust higher with a target in the 1.3280s, where there is also additional resistance from the underside of the trend-line from the June lows, a support and resistance level and the 38.2% Fibonacci line of the bearish decline. From there the 5th wave decline may well begin but any move down would have an initial support target at 1.3100 followed by just below the 1.29 lows.

AUD/USD: Technical Analysis

A reversal and the change of moods in the pair suggests that the "head and shoulders" pattern is not over yet. Level 0.9710/15 breakout gave new reasons to assume that. The trading is currently carried on at level 0.9810/00. Indicators are turned up indicating further possible growth. Resistance range 0.9870-0.9840 is most likely to become the target for the growth, wherefrom either a pullback or even a reversal is very likely to take place. In case of a reversal, by the way, we;ll be still expecting "head and shoulders" pattern to continue its formation. If this resistance is breached, the "bulls" will have all chances to recommence their trend with further new maximums tests in the nearest future. A downtrend scenario will be canceled in case the price breaches resistance 0.9970 and fixes above this level.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 06/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price not only tested, but also breached level 1.3310/00, mentioned previously. Then the price met a strong resistance at 1.3420/10, which is a bit below level 1.3460/50, the key resistance on the way up. Having pulled back, the trading is currently carried on close to support 1.3310/00. Attempts to breach down trend channel line (red lines) failed, which suggests the "bearish" moods and a possible reversal to a down trend. Indicators suggest this reversal too, indicating further possible decline to 1.3200/1.3190 as a part of correction to the previous growth. A lower decline will give reasons to expect a reversal to the "bearish" trend - the price may then fall to the new local minimum, around level 1.2960/70. Level 1.3460/50 -1.3490 breakout is still considered a signal to more significant changes in the market.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price reached resistance level 1.5750/60, mentioned earlier, and even went a bit higher, to 1.5780, but it didn't manage to fix there, so it puled back and now resides at 1.5700/10. Indicators are turning downwards, giving reasons to doubt of the "bullish" potential. If a decline proceeds to level 1.5650/60, it will be considered a correction to the recent growth. If the trading goes below 1.5650 with the following fixation, we'll be expecting possible supports levels 1.5580/90 and then 1.5520 tests. Until the price falls beow 1.5650/60, the scenario for growth is a higher possibility.

EURJPY: Technical Analysis

The exchange rate for the EUR/JPY failed to break the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly chart and instead rebounded off the 111.00 highs to below the range lows at 109.85, finding support at a slanting channel line connecting the lows within the range. Price has posted a reversal hammer candlestick on the 50min chart and although it is a little too early to say this might be an opportunity to enter a small long position with a tight stop in an attempt to ride the rally back up into the range. An initial objective for a rally would be the monthly pivot at 110.80 or even slightly higher than the recent highs in the 111.00s. From an Elliot perspective we may have just completed wave 4 and be rallying up in wave 5 of the wave which started at the 30th November lows.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 07/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The euro-dollar pair has risen overnight in a weak rally back up to the underside of the important trend-line from the June lows. This might be a 5th wave in Elliot terms. If it extends higher then it will probably surpass the old highs and reach around the 1.3440s but a more modest target might be the monthly pivot at 1.3415. After that a strong move down may follow if the trend down resumes. Due to the weakness of the rally in comparison with the prior move it is also possible that the exchange rate will begin falling sooner, with a downside target of 1.3240 initially and then perhaps 1.3210.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 08/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Assumptions that risistance 1.3410/00 was strong enough to withstand the "bullish" attacks turned out to be correct. The price didn't manage to pass this barrier, so it currently resides at 1.3190/80. Indicators suddently changed their readings in favor of a downward movement, which gives reasons to expect further possible decline. The current fall will probably reach support 1.3150/40, which breakout would indicate the "bearish" potential. If the barrier is easily breached, we'll be expecting new minimums to be tested at 1.2960/70 in the nearest future. A return above 1.3320/30 suggests a reversal to the "bullish" trend.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

The price got close to the key resistance 1.5850/40, but then pulled from level 1.5820 and reversed to decline. Having tested level 1.5670/60, the trading is pulling back up and is currently carried on at levels 1.5700/10. Seems like the assumptions of the previous analysis, that a fall below support 1.5710/00 would give reasons to expect a reversal to growth for a medium-term, are starting to be realised. Indicators reversed down, which gives even more reasons to expect this reversal. Support level 1.5650 breakout will be one more signal for that. It's worth taking into account that support 1.5650/40 is rather strong, which makes a big pullback upwards to the last local maximum 1.5820/30 with further reversal to decline quite a possibility. Resistance level 1.5840/50 breakout will indicate the "bullish victory".

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair rallied up to the top of the range and the monthly pivot at 110.80. It is currently pushing against these resistance highs and indications remain quite bullish. There appears to be a triangle unfolding sideways at these same highs which may be breaking out at the moment and it could thrust up to perhaps 111.55 or thereabouts. There is also a slanting inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart which is breaking its neckline currently and could reach a target of 114.15. However, a move back down to the bottom of the triangle at 110.65 is also possible before any further action.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forex4you]

Forex4you Technical Analysis 09/12/10

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price didn't make it to support 1.3150/40 and started its growth on trades from level 1.3170. But having failed to breach resistance 1.3320/30 it's pulling back at the moment, so the trading is carried out at levels 1.3200/10. Indicators suggest the "bearish" moods, which makes yesterday's scanario - support level 1.3150/40 test - quite a possibility. This level breakout will reveal the "bearish" potential will- a fast breakout will initiate minimums 1.2960/70 tests in the near future, a failure to breach this barrier will result in a sideways correction. Resistance breakout at 1.3320/30 will trigger a reversal to the "bullish" trend.

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

Assumptions of a possible surprise factor in the pair - a pullback upwards to the recent local maximums at 1.5820/30 - turned out to be correct. After a rapid ascension and key resistance 1.5850/40 test the price is pulling back downwards and currently resides at 1.5770/80. The second part of yesterday's scenario seem to be realized and the pair will recommence its decline to support levels 1.5500/1.5470. Nevertheless, to make it happen, the "bears" have to pass a lot of supports and one of them - level1.5780/70 - is being tested at the moment. Indicators give reasons to expect this level to be breached, so the price will descend to the next strong level - 1.5710/1.5690. The next on the way are supports 1.5650, 1.5590, 1.5530. A signal for the "bullish" possible strength is the same – resistance 1.5840/50 breakout.

EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

This pair reached highs in the 111.60s yesterday and has since fallen to resistance turned support at the top of the recent range at 110.60 and also the neckline of a sloping inverted H&S at the November 30 lows. It is quite probable that the exchange rate will revisit the 111.60 highs again. From an Elliot pattern perspective this pullback could be the wave 4 before wave 5 up. It might also be the pullback to the neckline of the inverted H&S with a move higher to 114.15 worth watching for.

Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.