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Forex Technical Analysis

GIVE ME WORK: US Fed's Ben Says accommodating Policy till jobs improve, markets ZOOM

QUOTE: The sudden disappointment of a hope leaves a scar which the ultimate fulfillment of that hope never entirely removes

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses


MARKET PULSE


US: Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"
US: FOMC minutes show need for more signs of employment before cutting QE3
US: USD Index down 1.5 % today.
US: FORECAST Jobless benefits rose to 2.96 million (June 29) vs 2.93 previous week.
OIL: Brent and WTI converge from $28 to $1.41
GOLD: Spot gold rose 2.4 % to $1,289.80
JAPAN : IMF upgraded growth forecast this year to 2 % from a 1.6 %


COMMODITIES


WTI Oil Trades Near 15-Month High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop
Gold Heads for Best Run Since April as Bernanke Backs Stimulus



INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR at 59.7175 after touching a high of 59.3200 earlier, the strongest level since July 2. 1-month volatility declines 39 bps to 12.5225%; this year's avg. is 9.9608%. 1-month NDFs rose 0.4% to 60.06; 12-month NDFs rose 0.4% to 63.44​

FACTORS

Technical: Pivot point at 59.8329; resistance at 59.4608, 59.2666, 58.7003; support at 60.0271, 60.3992, 60.9655 USD/INR's 14-day stochastics oscillator is around 58, near oversold threshold
Options premium declines ( 25-RR) , It rose to a high Z-score of 1.6 %,
JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index, rose to 10.73 % after reaching a high o 11.96% (June 24)

GOLD

MARKETS

Spot gold rose 2.4 % to $1,289.80, the highest level since June 25, and traded at $1,284.02 in Asian hours . A 4th day of gains would be the longest winning streak since the five days to April 22. Silver climbed as much as 3.1 % to $19.9925, the highest since July 1.​

FACTORS

Fed's. Bernanke backed sustained stimulus for the foreseeable future.
FOMC released yesterday showed need for more signs of employment before cutting QE3
USD Index down 1.5 % today.

SENSEX

MARKETS

SENSEX a t 19697 opened up with a 400 + gap up and rallied to a 1-month high . The Sensex is up more than 2 % after hitting its highest mark since June 7. The Nifty is up 2.12 %, after marking its highest intraday level since June 10.

FACTORS

Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"
INR rallied to more than a week high
ITC Ltd up 2.1 % and HDFC Bank Ltd rising 3.3 %.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

EUR rose 1.1 % to $1.3116 after earlier touching $1.3207, the best since June 21. USD reached 98.27 yen, the least since June 27, before trading at 98.73 yen, 1 % lower than yesterday. JPY lost 0.1 % to 129.51 per euro. USD Index, fell 1.7 % to 82.623 after earlier touching 82.418, the lowest since June 25.​

FACTORS

The USD Index tumbled before a report today that may show continuing jobless claims rose.
AUD at 4 1/2-year low versus its New Zealand peer after unemployment climbed.
US: FORECAST Jobless benefits rose to 2.96 million (June 29) vs 2.93 previous weeks.
IMF upgraded Japan's growth forecast this year to 2 % from a 1.6 %

COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months rose 2.5 % to $6,994 a MT , the highest since July 4, before trading at $6,957.75 in Asia . Copper November advanced 3.2 % to $8,178 a ton. Copper September rose 2.1 % to $3.1555 a pound.​

FACTORS

Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"

OIL

MARKETS

WTI August up 93 cents to $107.45 . The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average. WTI advanced $2.99 to $106.52 yesterday, the highest close since March 27, 2012. Brent August up 33 cents, to $108.84. Brent at a premium to $1.41 to WTI.​

FACTORS

U.S. stockpiles fell for a second week. (9.87 million barrels)
Brent's premium to WTI shrank to the narrowest since November 2010.
U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels last week,
Egyptian police sought Mohammed Badie, and 9 others of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Hamza Zawba, of Brotherhood's political arm" won't engage until Mursi is reinstated."
 
Middle-Earth 15th July:FULL CIRCLE: China GDP/Industries fall , US Stimulus to stay , Gold returns after going astray


http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses


FULL CIRCLE: China GDP/Industries fall , US Stimulus to stay , Gold returns after going astray


QUOTE: Sanity may be madness but the maddest of all is to see life as it is and not as it should be


MARKET PULSE

• INDIA: trade deficit narrowed to $12.2 Bln in June from $20.1 Bln in May

• INDIA: Gold and silver imports fell to $2.45 Bln from $8.39

• GOLD: Longs up by 4.1 % to 35,691 futures last week

• GOLD: Shorts reached 80,147 last week, the highest since 2006.

• U.S. data on retail sales today, FORECAST up 0.8%

• CHINA: GDP grew 7.5 % in the April-June period vs. 7.7 GDP in Q1

• CHINA: Industries rose 8.9 % in June (YoY) vs. 9.1 % forecast and a 9.2 % gain in May.

COMMODITIES

• WTI Trades Near 2-Day High as China Growth Boosts Demand Bets

• Hedge Funds Bought Gold in Biggest Rally Since 2011

• Gold Extends Best Week Since 2011 as Stimulus Seen Sustained

• Copper Rises as China GDP Meets Forecast

• Crude longs Jump to 2-Year High as Demand Soars



INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR fell 0.6 % to 60.0050 the biggest drop since July 8. INR fell to a record 61.2125 on July 8. 1-month volatility, rose 4 bp, to 12.51 %. 3-month onshore forwards fell 0.3 % from July 12 to 61.02 . 3-month NDF dropped 0.2 % to 61.02.

FACTORS

• Forecast: inflation accelerated, limiting the central bank's scope to adjust policy.

• Consumer price-inflation at 9.87 % Vs 9.31 %,

• Industrial output unexpectedly contracted in May

• India is considering selling sovereign bonds overseas

• India's trade deficit narrowed to $12.2 Bln in June from $20.1 Bln in May

• Gold and silver imports fell to $2.45 Bln from $8.39


GOLD

MARKETS

Gold Spot at 1289.2 $ rose 3.7$ , Gold futures gained 5.4 % to $1,277.60 last week, the most since October 2011. Gold August traded at $1,289.20

FACTORS

• Hedge funds raised bets on higher gold prices for a second week

• Longs up by 4.1 % to 35,691 futures

• Short contracts reached 80,147 last week, the highest since 2006.

• S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities added 1.7 % last week (3-month high)


SENSEX

MARKETS

SENSEX up 49 points 20,005 breaking the 20000 barrier

FACTORS

• Infosys Ltd falls 1.9 % on profit-taking after surging 10.9 % on Friday

• Banks fall ahead of the release of June Inflation Data

• HDFC Bank Ltd is down 1.3 %, while ICICI Bank Ltd is down 0.7 %.



FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

USD added 0.1 % to 99.27 JPY following a 0.3 % gain on July 12. It was at $1.3073 per euro after rising 0.2 % to $1.3067 at the end of last week. The euro rose 0.1 % to 129.77 JPY. Financial markets in Japan are closed today for a national holiday. AUD up 0.6 % to 90.99 U.S. cents

FACTORS

• U.S. data on retail sales today, FORECAST up 0.8%

• GBP at a 4-month low versus the euro before the BoE England releases minutes on July 17

• Longs on USD more than shorts by 80,305 on July 9

• CHINA: GDP grew 7.5 % in the April-June period vs. 7.7 GDP in Q1


COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months gained as much as 0.5 % to $6,985 MT . Copper November rose 1 % to $8,176 a ton. Copper September rose 0.2 % to $3.1595 a pound.

FACTORS

• Copper climbed after China's GDP met ' estimates.

• CHINA: Industries rose 8.9 % in June (YoY) vs. 9.1 % forecast and a 9.2 % gain in May.


OIL

MARKETS

WTI at $105.97 up 2 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 8 % below the 100-day average. WTI raised $1.04 to $105.95 on July 12. Brent up 3 cents at $108.84. Brent September was up 2 cents to $107.95. Brent was at a premium of $2.87 to WTI.

FACTORS

• Hedge funds increased their bullish bets on WTI to the highest level since May 2011

• Longs on WTI, rose to 281,918 last week

• CHINA: Oil consumption rose 11 % from a year ago (10 million barrels /day)

• CHINA: Accounted for 11 % of global demand last year, compared with 21 % for the U.S.
 
Middle-Earth 16th July:SAVING R: Indian CB Hikes Interest Rates to Make Cost of Carry of USD expensive


http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses


SAVING R: Indian CB Hikes Interest Rates to Make Cost of Carry of USD expensive

QUOTE: He who has a thousand friends has not a friend to spare, and he who has one enemy will meet him everywhere.

MARKET PULSE

• FX: Global currency volatility at 10.56 %, after dropping to 10.47 % (June 18th low) .

• US: FORECAST IIP rose 0.3 % in June vs May (Feb 2013 high)

• US: FORECAST-: Consumer Prices up 1.6 % Vs 1.4 % in May.

• EZ: German index of investor confidence rose to 40 this month from 38.5 in June

• UK: Carney to hold easing of at $566 Bln and not expand it

• INDIA: Central bank raised 2 interest rates to support the currency

• INDIA: Marginal Standing Facility at 10.25 % from 8.25 yesterday

• INDIA: OMO Sales in bonds to a tune of $2 Bln USD

• INDIA: Repo capped at 750 Bln INRs vs. Avg. 872 Bln INR 2013

• INDIA: 10Y Yield rose up 42 bp, to 8.1 %.

• INDIA: The factors will make the cost of carry to short the INR expensive


COMMODITIES

• WTI Trades Near 3-Day High as Oil Stockpiles Seen Shrinking

• Gold Drops for Third Day as Investors Await Bernanke Testimony

• Gold Longest Below 200-Day Average Since '01

• Crude Supply Drops to Five-Month Low in Survey

• U.K. Regulator Weighs Criminal Probe Into Oil-Price Fixing




INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR strengthened 0.8 % to 59.4225 touched a high of 59.1250, the strongest level since July 1. 1 year forwards premium rose 75 bp to 7.1 % . One Year forwards have risen 133 bp this year. 3-month forwards rose 0.7 % to 60.61. 3-month NDF rose 0.6 % to 60.67. The spread between the 1-month and 12-month NDFs rose to 4.04 %, the highest level since 2008.

FACTORS

• Central bank raised 2 interest rates to support the currency

• Marginal Standing Facility at 10.25 % from 8.25 yesterday

• OMO Sales in bonds to a tune of $2 Bln USD

• Repo amount capped at 750 Bln INRs vs. average 872 Bln INR 2013

• 10Y Yield rose up 42 bp, to 8.1 %,

• The factors will make the cost of carry to short the INR expensive


GOLD

MARKETS

Gold fell 0.6 % to $1,277.29 and was trading at $1,279.78 in Asia. Gold rose to $1,298.73 on July 11, the highest since June 24. Gold declined for a 3RD day . Gold August fell 0.4 % to $1,278.30 after rising 0.5 % yesterday . Silver Spot fell 1.3 % to $19.7124 and was trading at $19.7845 in Asia

FACTORS

• Shanghai's benchmark spot fell to 12,788 kg from 17,036 kg on July 12.

• Bernanke, scheduled to testify before a congressional committee tomorrow,

• SPDR Gold Trust, (ETF) at 939.07 MT unchanged for a 3rd day.


SENSEX

MARKETS

The S&P BSE Sensex slid 1.3 % to 19,771.18 at 9:30 a.m. in Mumbai, ending 3 days of gains. S&P BSE Bankex, an Index of 13 banks, sank 4.4 %, the most since July 2009.

FACTORS

• Central Bank raised 2 interest rates yesterday, stepping up efforts to aid the INR

• The INR has weakened 8.2 % against the USD in 2013

• India wholesale Inflation rose to 4.86 % (June) vs 4.7 % in May

• CPI rose to 9.87 % in June from 9.31 %, in May

• Factory output unexpectedly contracted in May

• Global funds sold $220 million of local shares on July 11 ( inflows now stand at 13.3 Bln)

• Global l funds sold $1.8 Bln of stocks in June


FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

JPY traded at 99.76 Vs. 99.86 yesterday, having weakened 0.9 % in the past 2 sessions. JPY flat at 130.54 per euro from yesterday, when it lost 0.6 %. The euro rose 0.2 % to $1.3085. AUD gained 1 % to 91.84 U.S. cents.

FACTORS

• BoJ may signal extended easing in Japan this week

• AUD gained on opinion that the Central Bank will cut interest rates

• JPMorgan Chase's option index near a 1-month low.

• Global currency volatility at 10.56 %, after dropping to 10.47 % (June 18th low) .

• US: FORECAST IIP rose 0.3 % in June vs May (Feb 2013 high)

• US : FORECAST :Consumer Prices up 1.6 % Vs 1.4 % in May.

• EZ : German index of investor confidence rose to 40 this month from 38.5 in June

• UK : Carney to hold easing of at $566 Bln and not expand it



COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months up 0.6 % to $6,958 /MT. Copper September rose 0.2 % to $3.15 a pound. Copper November up 0.3 % to $8,151 a MT

FACTORS

• Copper rose as stockpiles on the LME had the longest run of declines since September.

• LME copper inventories declined for a seventh day to 637,850 tons

• SHFE stockpiles fell for a third week to 168,376 tons


OIL

MARKETS

WTI f August at $106.06 down 26 cents. . The volume of all futures traded was about 7 % above the 100-day average. WTI gained 37 cents yesterday to $106.32. Brent August which expires today, was down 28 cents at $108.81. Brent September slid 24 cents to $107.84. Brent was at a premium of $2.77 to WTI.

FACTORS

• U.S. crude inventories declined for a 3rd week.

• Inventories dropped by 1.88 million barrels to a 5 month low

• Goldman Sachs : Brent prices have shifted "to the upside" amid political tensions in OPEC.
 
Middle-Earth 17th July: QE AT WORK: US Ben's testimony to Congress, amid rise in Housing & Manufacturing


http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses


QE AT WORK: US Ben's testimony to Congress, amid rise in Housing & Manufacturing

QUOTE: History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it.

MARKET PULSE

• US: Fed's Bernanke is due to testify to Congress today.

• US: FORECAST -Housing starts climbed 5 % in June vs May to 960,000 annualized rates.

• U.S. manufacturing rose by the most in four months.

• U.S. factories, mines and utilities output up 0.3 % in June,( Feb 2013 High)

• US: Homebuilders confidence at 7 years high

• CHINA: Government-Retail sales will accelerate in the 2nd half of this year

• JAPAN: BoJ-" Central bank "period of its stimulus at 2 years and then review"

• CANADA: CB Governor Poloz will keep the benchmark interest rate at 1 %

• INDIA Proposed - 100% FDI in phone carriers, and hike from 26% in defense


COMMODITIES

• Gold Imports by India Seen Shrinking as State Curbs Boost Costs

• Gold Slump Revives Hedges Scrapped During Bull Run

• Gold Near 3-Week High as Investors Await Bernanke Testimony

• Copper Rises 0.3% to $7,016.25 a MT in London

• WTI Falls for a Second Day as Chart Shows Unsustainable Gains


INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR gained 0.2 % to 59.2250 . It saw a monthly high of 59.0450, after the best recovery yesterday .

1-month volatility, up 4 bp to 12.53 %. The INR fell to a lifetime low of 61.2125 on July 8 . 3-month forwards fell 0.05 % to 60.46. 3-Month NDF fell 0.2 % to 60.49.

FACTORS

• RBI measures to stay in place till September or clarity on the Fed stance on Stimulus

• Short-end of the YC likely to rise to 10.25 %

• 10Y Yields rose by 52 to 8.20%, the biggest increase since January 2009.

• RBI will conduct a special 3-day repo of 250 Bln INRs at 10.25 %

• Government is planning to ease foreign-direct investment (FDI) in some industries.

• Proposed - 100% FDI in phone carriers, and hike from 26% in defense production


GOLD

MARKETS

Gold traded at $1,291.46 vs. $1,292.22 yesterday, when prices climbed to $1,295.73. Gold for August d at $1,292.60 vs. $1,292 yesterday, when futures gained 0.5 %. Silver fell for the first time in 3 days, falling 0.9 % to $19.8365

FACTORS

• Assets in Gold ETFs resumed a decline.

• U.S. data that may show housing starts increased for a second month.


SENSEX

MARKETS

The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.4 % to 19,926.55 at 9:29 a.m. in Mumbai, after falling the most since July 3 yesterday. Indian stocks rebounded from the biggest decline in 2 weeks.

FACTORS

• Government approved plans to liberalize foreign investment rules to boost growth.

• Larsen & Toubro Ltd. rose 1.3 %. ITC Ltd.-New lifetime high

• Global investors sold $29.5 million of domestic shares on July 15 (annual at $12.4 Bln)


FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

USD rose 0.3 % to 99.35 JPY after losing 0.8 % yesterday. It strengthened 0.2 % to $1.3142 per euro. EUR rose 0.1 % to 130.55 JPY. The GBP slid 0.1 % to 86.93 pence per euro after touching 87.07 yesterday, the weakest since March 13. CAD fell 0.2 % to 1.0388 per USD after gaining 0.6 % yesterday

FACTORS

• US: Fed's Bernanke is due to testify to Congress today.

• US: FORECAST -Housing starts climbed 5 % in June vs May to 960,000 annualized rates.

• BoJ :" Central bank to limit the period of its stimulus to about 2 years and then review"

• Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will keep the benchmark interest rate at 1 %



COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months rose 0.7 % to $7,046 a MT , after falling to $6,967.75. Copper September rose 0.3 % to $3.1965 a pound. Copper for November up 0.9 % to $8,268 a ton.

FACTORS

• U.S. manufacturing rose by the most in four months.

• CHINA: Government-Retail sales will accelerate in the 2nd half of this year

• U.S. factories, mines and utilities output up 0.3 % in June,( Feb 2013 High)

• US: Homebuilders confidence at 7 years high


OIL

MARKETS

WTI August fell 54 cents to $105.46 . The volume of all futures traded was 28 % below the 100-day average.WTI fell 32 cents yesterday to $106, the lowest closing price since July 12. Brent September fell 34 cents to $107.80. Brent August expired at $109.40. Brent at a premium of $2.48 to WTI

FACTORS

• Technical indicators show that recent gains may be unsustainable.

• WTI's 14-day RSI closed above 70 for an 8th day yesterday

• U.S. Stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels last week- American Petroleum Institute

• U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.6 million barrels last week.

• EGYPT : Muslim Brotherhood's -New Cabinet "illegitimate" formed "over the blood of martyrs,"
 
Middle-Earth 18th July: ANTIDOTES: US 85$ B , Japan $70 B Per Month, Greek Austerity may cost jobs

DGCX Academy Analyses

ANTIDOTES: US 85$ B , Japan $70 B Per Month, Greek Austerity may cost jobs

QUOTE: The choices we make are often driven by our insecurities, than our abilities

MARKET PULSE

US: Fed's Bernanke said "asset purchases are by no means on a preset course and could even be expanded if economic indicators don't meet its expectations."
US: Fed: If inflation rose back "toward the 2 % target, the pace QE could be reduced
US: FORECAST Jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 345,000
JAPAN: G20 finance ministers will endorse the BoJ easing
JAPAN: BOJ doubled monthly bond purchases to $70 bln +
JAPAN: US Fed: Japan's easing isn't an attempt to manipulate its exchange rate.
EZ : Greek lawmakers approved austerity measures that clear the next batch of loans.
EZ : The Greek bill puts thousands of state workers on notice for possible dismissal.
EZ: Greece's passage of the austerity bill may halt a decline in the euro in the near term
SENSEX: up 2.7 % this year,vs a 9.6 % drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
SENSEX: trades at 13.4 PE higher than Brazil, Russia and China.



COMMODITIES

WTI Oil Trades Near 1-Week High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop
Gold Trades Little Changed as Investors Weigh Bernanke Comments
Currency to Oil Rates Targeted for Tougher Rules After Libor
Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Bernanke Testimony, China

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR declined 0.7 % to 59.7680 . 1-month volatility, fell 11 BP, to 12.41 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.4 % to 60.96. 3-Month NDF slid 0.5 % to 61.02. 10Y Yield at 7 months high

FACTORS

USD Index, , rose for a 2nd day.
RBI, rejected all bids at a T-bills sale.
Fed's Bernanke said "asset purchases are by no means on a preset course and could even be expanded if economic indicators don't meet its expectations."



GOLD

MARKETS

Gold traded at $1,276.54 vs $1,276.11 when prices retreated 1.3 %, the most since July 5. Gold August traded at $1,277.20 vs $1,278.80 yesterday, when futures slid 1 %. Silver gained 0.3 % to $19.3984 after a 3.4 % drop yesterday, the most since June 26.

FACTORS

Demand in India and China, , is expected to exceed last year's levels: World Gold Council.
SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 936.07 MT ( Feb 2009 low)



SENSEX

MARKETS

S&P BSE Sensex added 48 pts to 19,997 after falling the most since July 3 day before yesterday

FACTORS

HUL rose 9.9 %, pacing a rally among consumer stocks.
Funds are shifting to low-debt consumer stocks from sectors with higher leverage
SENSEX up 2.7 % this year,vs a 9.6 % drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
SENSEX trades at 13.4 PE higher than Brazil, Russia and China.



FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

JPY fell 0.5 % to 100.11 per USD from yesterday, when it lost 0.5 %. The USD advanced 0.2 % to $1.3095 per euro. EUR rose 0.3 % to 131.09 JPY after touching 131.36 yesterday, the strongest since June 5.

FACTORS

G20 finance ministers will endorse the BoJ easing
Greek lawmakers approved austerity measures that clear the next batch of loans.
BOJ doubled monthly bond purchases to $70 bln +
JAPAN: US Fed: Japan's easing isn't an attempt to manipulate its exchange rate.
Fed: If inflation rose back "toward the 2 % target, the pace QE could be reduced
US: FORECAST Jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 345,000
The Greek bill puts thousands of state workers on notice for possible dismissal,
Greece's passage of the austerity bill may halt a decline in the euro in the near term



COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months flat at $6,882.75 after trading between a 0.4 % gain and 0.4 % loss. Copper September lost 0.3 % to $3.1185 a pound. Copper November declined 0.9 % to $8,054 a ton.

FACTORS

IMF: China's economic growth this year may trail forecast.



OIL

MARKETS

WTI August delivery at $106.36 down 12 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 14 % below the 100-day average. The contract climbed 48 cents to $106.48 yesterday, the highest close since July 10. Brent September slid 11 cents to $108.50. Brent at a premium of $2.36 to WTI .

FACTORS

U.S. inventories dropped to the lowest level since January.
Stockpiles fell by 6.9 million barrels to 367 million: Energy Information Administration
Supplies shrank for a third week, the longest run of declines this year.
Plants operated at an average 92.8 % of capacity last week, the highest rate in a year,

Saudi Arabia, shipped 7.79 million barrels/ day in May, (June 2012 High)

Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/other-pairs/51229-futures-8.html#ixzz2ZNs6MoUw
 

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