Forex Technical Analysis

[alex22]

nzd usd


TIME weekly
http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?1163-NZD-USD&p=2361#post2361
pattern : inv ab=cd



time : h4

 

[alex22]

OFF VITAMINS: US Services, Jobs, Factories gain, Will Stimulus stop?

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

QUOTE: Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

MARKET PULSE
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• US: New York Fed President "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• EURO -ZONE: ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
• GOLD: Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013
• CRUDE: Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year

COMMODITIES
• Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Physical Demand Against Stimulus
• S&P GSCI Commodities Index Gains for Third Day as Oil Rallies
• Gold at About $1,200 a 'Good Entry Point,' Coutts' Dugan Says
• Copper Futures Rise as Inventories Fall, Spread Spot Price Grows
• WTI Surges Above $100 on Egypt Unrest, U.S. Stockpile Decline

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.5 % to 59.9350 . It fell to a lifetime low of 60.7650 on June 26. 1-month volatility fell 3 bp, to 12.22 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.6 % to 60.94. 3-month NDF fell 0.6 % to 61.11.
FACTORS
• US: jobless claims and payrolls data due this week
• Global Funds sold $7.1 Bln of assets in June
• RBI :draft guidelines on banks risk management for customers with unhedged FX exposure
• INDIA: FM: $75 Bln to fund the current account deficit by March 2014

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold was at $1,245.10 vs. $1,243.50 yesterday, after rising and falling at least 0.2 %. Gold August was flat at $1,245 after falling 1 %. Silver rose 0.4 % to $19.4811 after falling 1.2 % yesterday
FACTORS
• Gold fell 0.7 % yesterday as the USD strengthened.
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, flat at 83.581 after rising to 83.622 ( May 30 High) . EUR-USD fell 0.1 % to $1.2972 vs yesterday, when it saw a low of $1.2964 (June 3 Low) . USD-JPY was flat at 100.66 after earlier rising to 100.86. EUR-JPY at 130.58 vs. 130.61 with a high of 131.12. AUD fell to 90.94 U.S. cents, the lowest since September 2010, before trading at 91.10, down 0.4 % from yesterday.
FACTORS
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• AUSTRALIA: RBA: Transition from a resource boom could be aided by a weaker currency
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• New York Fed President W. C. Dudley "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months up 1 % to $6,976 a MT trading at $6,944.75 in Asia . It rose to $6,982 yesterday, ( June 19 High). Copper October flat at $8,167 a ton. Copper September up 0.3 % to $3.151 a pound.
FACTORS
• Inventories declined for a 6th day to 659,200 tons yesterday
• Shanghai inventories fell for the 1st time in 5 weeks to 182,493 tons last week.
• Copper Cash at a premium of $18 a ton to the 3-month contract
OIL
MARKETS
WTI August up $2.58, or 2.6 %, to $102.18. The volume of all futures traded was almost seven times the 100-day average. The contract increased $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $99.60 yesterday, the highest close since May 2012. Brent August up $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $105.61. Brent was at a premium of $3.16 to WTI
FACTORS
• Egypt's political showdown escalated
• U.S. stockpiles shrank the most this year.
• U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels last week, American Petroleum Institute
• The Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year

 

[alex22]

STIMULUS BLUES: US Jobs zoom: Pundits say Gold at 1,150, Indian Rupee lowest ever

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forumdisplay.php?37-DGCX-Academy-Analyses

QUOTE:Hope is much like a cat in the Dark - you only know it's there by the reflection of its eyes - which means there is Light nearby.
MARKET PULSE
• US. payrolls rose by 195,000 for a 2nd month in June, vs. 165,000 forecast.
• US USD Index rose to the highest level since July 2010.
• US: Jobless rate held at 7.6 %, near a four-year low
• US FED:. Bought $2.3 trillion of assets from 2008 to 2011 in the QE1 and QE2
• GOLD: Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse: Gold will reach $1,150
• INDIA: INR sees a LIFETIME low of 61.1550
• EURO ZONE: FORECAST : IIP in Germany fell 0.5 % in May vs. gain of 1.8 %. April
• JAPAN: current account surplus narrowed: May was at $5.3 Bln
• EGYPT: BP Plc withdrew workers as supporters and opponents clash.

COMMODITIES
• Tanaka's Gold Sales May Exceed Buying for First Time in 9 Years
• Gold Bear-Market History Signals Second-Half Hope for Faithful
• Copper in London Climbs, Reversing Earlier Decline



INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 1.5 % to 61.1475. It saw low of 61.1550, passing the previous record of 60.7650 on June 26. 1-month volatility, up 55 bp to 13.35 % and touched 13.48 %, the highest level since June last year. 3-month forwards rose 0.5 % to 61.10 per USD. 3M NDF dropped 0.3 % to 61.57.
FACTORS
• U.S. payrolls rose by 195,000 for a 2nd month in June, vs. 165,000 forecast.
• USD Index, rose to the highest level since July 2010.
• Global funds sold $7.6 Bln in Debt since May
• US : Jobless rate held at 7.6 %, near a four-year low.

GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,219.31 after a 2% decline on Friday. Gold slid 23 % Q2 2013
FACTORS
• Societe Generale SA: Gold will average $1,150 in 2014.
• Goldman Sachs : Gold will l reach $1,050 by the end of 2014
• Credit Suisse Group AG : Gold will reach $1,150 in about 12 months.
• Gold ETF Assets declined 622.3 MT as of July 5 in 2013

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, touched 84.588, the highest since July 2010, before trading at 84.538 in Asia 0.1 % above its New York close when it jumped 1.5 %. USD flat at 101.20 yen with a high of 101.53, (May 30.) EUR slid 0.1 % to $1.2816, having declined 1.4 % in the previous 2 sessions. The euro slid 0.1 % to 129.70 yen.
FACTORS
• Bernanke said "begin slowing bond purchases this year"
• The euro held a 2-day decline before ECB President Draghi speaks in Brussels today .
• Germany releases data on industrial production.
• US FED:. Bought $2.3 trillion of assets from 2008 to 2011 in the QE1 and QE2
• EURO ZONE : FORECAST: IIP in Germany fell 0.5 % in May vs. gain of 1.8 %. April
• Japan's current account surplus narrowed : May surplus at $5.3 Bln

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3-Months 0.2 % higher at $6,800 a ton. Industrial metals rebounded after slumping by the most in 2 months Copper October fell 0.7 % to $7,962 a ton. Copper September gained 0.4 % to $3.078 per pound.
FACTORS
• Stockpiles in China fell raised hope that demand will increase.

OIL
MARKETS
WTI August rose 90 cents to $104.12 and was trading at $103.68 in Asia . The volume of all futures traded was almost double the 100-day average. WTI rose $1.98, or 2 %, to $103.22 on July 5, the highest settlement since May 2012. Prices increased 6.9 % last week. Brent August up as 32 cents, or 0.3 %, to $108.04. Brent was at a premium of $4.17 to WTI
FACTORS
• Protests in Egypt fanned concern that Middle East oil supply may be disrupted.
• BP Plc withdrew workers from Egypt as supporters and opponents rallied.
• Interim leader Adly Mansour sought to pull together a government to restore order
• The 14-day relative strength index is above 73 today, the highest since Jan. 30.

 

[alex22]

eur usd


time: daily


Probability of hd+

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?993-EUR-USD&p=2378#post2378

 

[alex22]

usd cad

time daily

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?996-USD-CAD&p=2139#post2139
pattern : alt bat - ab=cd

 

[alex22]

RUPEE RUMBLE: Indian Central Bank and Regulators step in to stop the currency slide

QUOTE: Hope is faith holding out its hand in the dark.

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forumdisplay.php?37-DGCX-Academy-Analyses

MARKET PULSE


INDIA: Central Bank barred banks from trading in exchange F&O (effective immediately)
INDIA: SEBI will raise margin requirements and curtail open positions from July 11.
INDIA: Turnover in F&O in INR climbed 47 % to a daily average of $6.4 Bln
INDIA: Indian companies dollar debt repayments at $20 Bln in 2014
US: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks /FOMC minutes for June (Tomorrow)
US Net longs on USD Index at 15,672 vs. 12,281 in the previous week
JAPAN: BoJ to increase money supply from 60 trillion ($593 Bln) to 70 trillion yen
JAPAN: Gold ETF expanded 10 % this year by volume.
CHINA: Consumer price index rose 2.7 % in June YoY Vs 2.5 % forecast
EURO ZONE : ECB agreed to release $3.9 Bln of aid for Greece
EGYPT: Army shot dead at least 51 supporters of deposed President d Mursi.


COMMODITIES


Gold Bulls Defy Price Slump as Paulson Loss Widens:
Spot Gold Extends Advance as Silver Climbs With Platinum
WTI Fluctuates Amid Indication Price Gains Were Unsustainable
Copper in Shanghai Gains 0.5% to 48,860 Yuan a Ton
Crude Stockpiles Expected to Drop to Lowest Level Since February



INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR advanced 0.9 % to 60.0950 , the biggest gain since June 28,. It touched a high of 59.715, the strongest level since July 2. 1-month volatility fell 14 bp 13.42 %.3-month forwards rose 1.9 % to 60.63 .3-Month NDF rose 1.4 % to 61.1.

FACTORS

Central Bank barred banks from trading in exchange F&O ( effective immediately)
SEBI will raise margin requirements and curtail open positions from July 11.
Commonwealth Bank is looking to sell the Indian currency on bouts of strength
Turnover in F&O i climbed 47 % to a daily average of $6.4 Bln
RBI : Global Funds can only use INR F&O to protect their shares and debt.
RBI and state-owned Oil Cos. are discussing ways to manage USD exposures
Indian companies dollar debt repayments at $20 Bln in 2014

GOLD

MARKETS

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,258.20 in Asian Hours

FACTORS

Japan's Gold ETF expanded 10 % this year by volume.
Global ETF in Gold are down 24 % this year to 1,993.76 MT
JAPAN FORECAST: Inflation at 3 % for Q2 2013
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Credit Suisse Group AG cut their price forecasts

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

USD was little changed at $1.2868 per euro .USD rose 0.2 % to 101.15 yen after touching 101.53 yesterday, the strongest since May 30. The yen lost 0.2 % to 130.16 per euro after falling 0.1 % yesterday. USD Index, rose 0.1 % to 84.244 after touching 84.588 yesterday, the highest since July 2010. The AUD lost 0.1 % to 91.27 U.S. cents. It reached 90.37 on July 3, the lowest since September 2010.​

FACTORS

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks tomorrow as well as the FOMC minutes for June
Net longs on USD Index at 15,672 vs. 12,281 in the previous week
BoJ to increase money supply from 60 trillion yen ($593 Bln) to 70 trillion yen per year.
CHINA : consumer price index rose 2.7 % in June YoY Vs 2.5 % forecast
GBP Rises From Near 4-Month Low on a forecast that industrial growth may be positive in June

COPPER

MARKETS

Copper rose 0.4 % to $6,855.25 a MT . Relative strength index at 44.

MARKETS

China decline in factory-gate prices extended its longest losing streak in a decade
ECB agreed to release 3 Bln euros ($3.9 Bln) of aid for Greece

OIL

MARKETS

WTI August delivery was at $103.10 down 4 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 36 % below the 100-day average. WTI slid 8 cents yesterday after closing at $103.22 on July 5, the highest since May 2, 2012. Prices increased 6.9 % last week, the most since February 2011. Brent August down 31 cents at $107.12. Brent at a premium of $4.02 to WTI contracts.​

MARKETS

U.S. crude inventories are forecast to fall for a 2nd week
The RSI showed prices have advanced too quickly.
FORECAST : Crude stockpiles dropped by 3.1 million barrels last week
Egypt's army shot dead at least 51 supporters of deposed President d Mursi.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc temporarily relocated some workers and dependent from Egypt

 

[alex22]

CONTINENTAL CONCERNS: Italy BBB-10Y 3.1%, UK GBP 3Y Low, France Industries reverse

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forumdisplay.php?37-DGCX-Academy-Analyses

QUOTE: Hope never abandons you, you abandon it.

MARKET PULSE


EZ: ECB Joerg Asmussen " interest rates holding at record lows beyond 12 months "
EZ: S&P's downgraded Italy to 'BBB' on weakening economic prospects.
EZ: FORECAST IIP in France fell 0.8 % in May vs 2.2% increase in June
EZ: Italy's 10-year yield rose 3 bp, , to 4.41 % yesterday.
UK: Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in May GBP at 3Y low
IMF: Global growth at 3.1 % vs. 3.3 % estimated in April.
CHINA: Exports 3.1% fell in June ( YoY ) vs. 3.7% growth forecast.


COMMODITIES


Asian Stocks Pare Gains as Aussie Declines With Metals on China
Copper Drops After China Exports, Imports Fall Unexpectedly
Copper Triangle Break Means Further 10% Drop: Technical Analysis




INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR flat vs. yesterday at 60.1450 . 1-month volatility, , fell 16 bp to 13.06 %. . 3-month forwards advanced 0.2 % to 61.15 vs a 0.9 % rise yesterday, the most this month, after touching an all-time low of 62.09 on July 8. 3-Month NDF rose 0.3 % to 61.24.​

FACTORS

US : FOMC minutes and Fed chairman Bernanke's speech today.
RBI : Oil companies will purchase USD only from the State Bank of India.
Global funds were net buyers of INR debt on July 8 for the first time in 14 days,
Global funds have cut holdings of local bonds by $7.9 Bln since May 22.

GOLD

MARKETS

Gold lost 0.6 % to 1,244.03 and was trading at $1,247.93 in Asia after rising 2.3 % in the past 2 days. Gold August was flat at $1,246 . Prices slumped 26 % this year, set for the biggest annual drop since 1981. Silver fell 1.4 % to $19.0352​

FACTORS

CHINA: Exports 3.1% fell in June YoY vs. 3.7% growth forecast.
GOLD : IMF - prices have developed a positive correlation with emerging market assets
IMF : Global growth at 3.1 % vs. 3.3 % estimated in April.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 939.75 MT (Feb 2009 low)

SENSEX

MARKETS

S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2 % to 19,485.55 in the opening hour . The Sensex has dropped 2.9 % since May 22.

FACTORS

State Bank of India and ICICI Bank Ltd., Rose 0.7 %.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India's largest software exporter, climbed 0.9 %.
INR climbed for the 2ns day after regulatory measures
Foreign funds sold a net $1.76 Bln of Indian shares in June. ( Augt 2011 high)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

JPY rose 0.7 % to 100.44. It touched a high of 101.53 on July 8. The JPY strengthened 0.7 % to 128.42 per euro from yesterday, after reaching 128.22, the strongest since June 28. EUR was little changed at $1.2786 from yesterday, when it dropped to $1.2755, the lowest since April 4. The USD Index was flat at 84.504 from yesterday, when it reached 84.753, the highest since July 2010. GBP fell to a 3-year low of 1.4814.​

FACTORS

ECB Joerg Asmussen " interest rates holding at record lows beyond 12 months "
S&P's downgraded Italy to 'BBB' on weakening economic prospects.
Manufacturing in the U.K. unexpectedly shrank in May
FORECAST IIP in France fell 0.8 % in May vs 2.2% increase in June
Italy's 10-year yield rose 3 bp, , to 4.41 % yesterday.
CAD rises as housing statistics exceeded analysts' estimates.

COPPER

MARKETS

3 Month Copper fell 0.4 % to $6,703 a MT. Relative strength index 38.

FACTORS

China's exports and imports unexpectedly declined in June
European Central Bank may add to stimulus while the Federal Reserve tightens policy.
Copper futures, down 16 % this year, may fall by next month to the lowest since mid-2010

OIL

MARKETS

WTI August up $1.26 to $104.79. The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average. WTI rose 39 cents to $103.53 yesterday, the highest close since May 2, 2012. Brent August up 31 cents, to $108.12 .Brent at a premium of $3.43 to WTI .​

FACTORS

U.S. crude stockpiles decrease indicate increased demand
Crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels last week
U.S. gasoline stockpiles shrank by 3.5 million barrels
Supplies are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels

Egypt's interim premier President Adly Mansour will begin talks on forming a cabinet

 

[alex22]

aud nzd

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?1188-AUD-NZD&p=2409#post2409

time : monthly

pattern :

reciprocal ab=cd- shark - butterfly

 

[alex22]

usd cad

time daily

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?996-USD-CAD&p=2139#post2139
pattern : alt bat - ab=cd

Result:


http://forums.babypips.com/other-pairs/53510-usd-cad.html#post508182

 

[alex22]

gold

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?1032-GOLD&p=2345#post2345